While even God rested on the seventh day, this market made it eight straight, with the S&P peeking above 1105 in early morning trade, before sellers emerged, knocking equities off the highs, stocks settling into a slightly positive narrow range for the remainder of the session (S&P +0.50%).
The day was ripe for a reversal; stocks were extended, making a new yearly high in the first 30 minutes, reversing immediately taking out the opening range lows, thus setting the stage for a trend day down. The failure of Bears to seize the moment has to be noted, even though today many players were absent due to the Veterans Day holiday.
Gold continued its moon-shot (GLD +1.21%), but miners were noticeably lethargic, with Royal Gold (RGLD –0.02%) and Barrick Corp (ABX –0.14%) actually down on the day.
Many traders have circled the 50% retracement of the bear market (1576-666) at S&P 1120 as an objective for this move. Mr. Market rarely accommodates the majority, so be alert for rallies failing either slightly beneath or marginally above this area.
By using well placed stops (or using long gamma as a shorting vehicle) traders can get stopped out a few times (because the amount risked will be minimal) and still have enough capital to eventually nail the inevitable sell off.
Diminishing volume and volatility have made it very difficult for day-trading the e-minis; moves seem to come out of nowhere, running for 15 minutes, and then idling nowhere for the balance of the day. The battling boxes are perpetually pricing relative attractiveness of competing investments; an extremely strong sector one day often wakes up with amnesia the next, gapping lower and staying under pressure on the following day, while yesterday’s zombies rise from the dead.
Hewlett Packard (HPQ +0.08%) announced after the close today that it was acquiring 3Com (COMS +5.10%) for $7.90 a share, a hefty premium over today closing price of $5.69, shooting the post-close higher by +35%.
As you may be aware, the Week In Review (WIR) will now be focused on the longer-term picture, to the extent we can, but as long as markets are so unstable our daily discussion in this report will include a lot of comments on options and futures trades.
Check this out: call options volume in COMS has averaged 729 contracts over the past 50 days, but today’s pre-announcement call activity topped 7800. Was this an illegal info leak or a flood? Who might be going to prison as a consequence?
As this situation was yet another example of high options volume tipping off observant traders that something was brewing -- and it seems to be happening too frequently these days -- it often pays to closely monitor option trading in stocks on your radar, especially if large blocks of trades take place on the offer price, forcing implied volatility to dramatically increase.
Today was an important day to reflect not only on the services provided their country by people in the armed forces, but about their whole family commitment, which is enormous.
I’d like to tell you about a personal story that has great meaning to me. On the day my Dad died, while sitting at bedside with my Mom, his wife of 65 years, who had died a few hours earlier in the next room at the nursing home, saying our goodbyes, I knew my Dad was done. He died a few hours later, but he told me on that seminal day, tears streaming down his face, that the hardest thing for him to accept in his whole life was returning home as a war veteran from Europe following World War II when I refused to acknowledge that he was my father. Of course I was just two years old at the time, but I didn’t know him, and how could I have understood that he had sacrificed almost five years of his life and the comfort of his family to volunteer for service to his country, where he saw horrible things. Many of his friends unfortunately never did come home, and many returned in a bad way, and then he met me. It was still on his mind 60 years later.
Having a soldier in the family is a family commitment. We should not forget that. The rest of us should be honoring the family, not just the soldier. And, heaven forbid they don't have family, we have to step up as our brother's and sister's keeper.
Btw, hope you are happy with the changes korvus made to the comments in the Daily Discourse. Now you guys can police this blog, and I can relax!
Have a great evening.
Comments
Should I become a financial advisor?
I say this in jest. There is only a small percentage who actually care about protecting and growing your capital.
I browsed the job boards to see if there are signs of recovery. I am in sales and client mgmt in the tech space. So I was not surprised to see a financial advisor job post on a sales specific section of a $100k+ job board, but you should be surprised and dissapointed.
This one caught my eye because of the claimed earning potential, $500k+.
Make no doubt about it, 99pct of "financial advisors" are trained in sales, not advising. I am pasting the entire job description for your sakes. Note the Section "DESIRED SKILLS AND QUALIFICATIONS." not 1 has to do with protecting or growing your capital. The only way hb&b will change is if you force them. Move your money! To somewhere at least where they are paid only when you profit. Nothing if you lose. I prefer to see penalties or claw backs for losing performances.
Job post
Hiring Company Name: High Wealth Investment Resources Hiring Company Industry: Financial Services Number of Employes: 1,001 - 10,000 Total Compensation: $500K Reports To: VP Of Sales Posted on: 11/11/09
Financial Advisor Investments
This position is with a large financial services company that will give the right candidate with financial consulting selling experience the opportunity to earn outstanding compensation. The position requires strong financial background, exceptional communication skills and relationship building skills. The ideal candidate will possess a high level of commercial acumen and have the ability to convince clients to “make a change”. The candidate will be familiar working in a fast paced, growth-oriented environment.
Specialty: Financial/Investment Sales
Market: Professional
Product: Financial Investments
Position/Title: Sales Representative
Openings in:
- New York
- Boston
- Dallas
- Washington DC
- Chicago
- Houston
- LA (not Orange County)
- San Diego
- Tampa
- Orlando
Work out of a company office
Relocation: No
Company Size: Large – Over $500MM
Travel Requirements: 10-20%
Base Salary: $150,000 First year earnings after formal training between 200k to 250k. 500k to 1m is a reality as time progresses
Desired Education: MBA Preferred
Desired Experience: 15+ Years
Desired Specialty Background: Candidates need to be well connected in the city in which they reside (such as CPA’S, Attorneys, Bankers, or other professionals,)
Experience:
1. Responsible for developing relationships with high wealth individuals selling financial investments
REQUIREMENTS AND QUALIFICATIONS
1. BS, BA Four Year Degree, MBA preferred.
2. Proven, demonstrated success in previous positions with 175k - 300k plus earnings.
3. Experienced in the financial industry and in particular Investments
4. Job Stability
5. Be able to show demonstrated success
DESIRED SKILLS AND QUALIFICATIONS
1. Ability to project a professional image.
2. Ability to take prompt action to accomplish objectives and achieve goals beyond what is required.
3. Strong communication and leadership skills.
4. Ability to manage multiple tasks towards common goal in a timely fashion.
5. Proven negotiation skills.
6 MUST be well connected in your local community
7. MUST be able to write an effective business plan
This company is an Equal Opportunity / Affirmative Action Employer.
3Com Options
Does anyone know of a blog or twitter account that brought attention to today's increase in 3com call option volume prior to the end of the trading day? TIA
Yamada, Louise
Gold projections and others.
http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=av&T=Analys...
Close to home: veteran returns
I was forwarded an email by a colleague the sad news that a locall soldier who died in Afghanistan is returning home tomorrow. A silent vigil will line the street In honor as his hearse brings his body home. Forwarding the email I realized this young man, Spc Aaron Aamot is the grandson of a friend. Only 22 years old he left mere months ago to serve his country.
dave's short candidates for tomorrow
JWN, TIF, and MMM all had sell alerts today (by inspection, I mean). JWN and MMM appear to be forming lower highs, both look like good short candidates with stops that are not too far away (for swing traders, I mean). TIF is more risky, forming a higher high, but its showing an RSI divergence on both the daily and weekly chart.
GPS, while not showing a typical sell alert (it already had one a while back), has definitely formed a lower high, yet still has some very beefy weekly and monthly RSI values. I also think its a good short - the weekly chart is showing a very vicious RSI divergence and is approaching MACD rollover. Its most recent RSI high didn't quite make it to 70.
I tried a short entry for JWN today early but was stopped out. Perhaps I'll buy a put tomorrow instead.
FITTS
ALOHA !!
Catherine Austin-Fitts interview points out yet more JP MORGAN tricks. What she says around minute 18:00 is astounding. My brother confirms this because his wife is unemployed and she receives a JP MORGAN debit card for a JP MORGAN account where her unemployment benefits are deposited. Add in the fact that when she calls customer service on her benefits account JP MORGAN has hired not an American in America but has offshore customer service for US government benefit accounts to India and someone in New Delhi answers the phone. Is it that hard to hire an American in America? I thought Obama wanted to create jobs in America not India!
This lady, Catherine Austin-Fitts used to be in the HB&B hierarchy and jumped ship into the HUD hierarchy, so she has seen how both sides operate and what she says about the "insiders" is right on the money.
LINK: http://www.radio.goldseek.com/players/fittsplayern...
I suppose since JP MORGAN benefits from all these entitlement accounts that they claim their "deposits" have grown exponentially. I understand that food stamps are administered through a JP MORGAN debit card as well.
Based on current projections in my article on REVENUE BREAKDOWN last week Unemployment Benefits at this pace could breach a $300BIL USD industry this FY 2010. Who would have ever thought "welfare" would become a growth industry for JP MORGAN????
So not only is JP MORGAN custodian for gold but they are custodians for all US welfare and entitlement accounts as well.
Your tax dollars at work!
CHANGE YOU CAN COUNT ON!!
FET Entertainment
Some FET (Financial Entertainment Television) Spokesperson compared Current Unemployment to Employment as a Basketball to a Quarter. An absurd comparison, showing how deep the rabbit hole runs. This is not just about being optimistic, they are trying to deceive. A more fair comparison would be a Tennis Ball to a Ping Pong Ball. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htmCheck out this graphical comparison, overlayed on a stock chart 1929 to 1940http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/11/size-do...
Re: dave's short candidates for tomorrow
How about sell a near term call, and buy a longer term put?
CVX + XOM
ALOHA !!
Two companies on a JV on the Gorgon Project in Western Australia. Very impressive size ... 40 trillion ...
LINK: http://www.chevronaustralia.com/files/gorgon_voice...
Hummm ... BARROW ISLAND ...
This is how you create "real" jobs and not paper shuffling welfare.
dollar rebounding
Nice move in the buck this morning - just when I thought it was headed to 74, here it is rebounding like a champ. My favorite currency. :)
Well that and $USD's monthly RSI is 31 - almost in the accumulation zone - so I figure it's getting to be about time. I keep saying that, and maybe someday it will be true. But there needs to be some catalyst, some excitement that breaks the faith of all those USD shorts out there...
Re: 3Com Options
Grasshopper, you can go to http://www.stocktwits.com/ and see what people are tweeting about. Info on how to get started is at https://stocktwits.com/login.
I have not signed up for it, so I can't tell you how good/bad it may be.
I don't know if they had any info on the 3Com deal or not. It's the only Twitter/stock related site I know of though.
Cheers.
MBA Purchase Applications - plunged to -11.7%
Released on 11/12/2009 7:00:00 AM For wk11/6, 2009
Prior W/W Change -1.8 %
Actual W/W Change -11.7 %
Highlights
Demand for purchase applications plunged in the Nov. 6 week pointing to the risk of a dip backward in home sales. The Mortgage Bankers Association's purchase index fell 11.6 percent in the week to a nine-year low (MBA did not release index levels, only percentage changes). In contrast, the refinance index surged 11.3 percent in the week. The proportion of refinancing applications to purchase applications is 71.5 percent, the highest since May. Mortgage rates are at rock bottom with 30-year fixed averaging 4.90 percent, down 7 basis points in the week. Refinancings will give a big lift to homeowners, cutting down monthly costs and allowing the hardest pressed to stay in their homes. But the indication on home sales is a disappointment. Next data on the housing sector will be housing market index on Tuesday.
Wal-Mart and Kolh's earnings
The world’s largest retailer, Wal-Mart Stores Inc., is reporting a 3.2 percent increase in profit for the third quarter, helped by cost-control measures.
But the retailer said an important sales measure fell, and the discount-store chain expects sales weakness through the critical fourth quarter.
Profit was $3.24 billion, or 84 cents per a share, for the period ended Oct. 31. That compares with $3.14 billion, or 80 cents a share, in the period a year ago.
Revenue rose to $99.4 billion from $98.3 billion. Analysts expected earnings of 81 cents on revenue of $99.9 billion. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected earnings of 81 cents a share on revenue of $99.9 billion.
But the company said that sales at stores open at least a year fell 0.4 percent in the period, marking the second consecutive quarter that it saw this important measure fall. Sales at stores open at least a year are considered a key measure of a retailer’s health because they exclude the effects of expansion.
Michael T. Duke, Wal-Mart’s president and chief executive, said in a statement: “The sales environment continued to be difficult this quarter, but customer traffic is up throughout the company.”
Excluding fuel sales, the company’s namesake discount stores saw sales at stores open at least a year fall 0.5 percent, while Sam’s Club saw sales rise 0.1 percent.
The slippage is happening even as the discounter takes market share away from its rivals with its aggressive discounting.
The company said that it expects sales at stores open at least a year for the fourth quarter to be in a range of a decline of 1 percent to up 1 percent.
In related earnings, the department store operator Kohl’ssaid that sales of its exclusive brands and tight inventory control helped third-quarter profit rise 21 percent.
The department-store operator also raised its guidance for the year.
Profit rose to $193 million, or 63 cents per share. Revenue rose 7 percent to $4.05 billion.
Sales in stores open at least one year rose 2 percent.
Kohl’s, based in Menomonee Falls, Wis., now expects full-year earnings of $2.98 to $3.08 a share, from previous guidance of $2.59 to $2.70 a share.
Kohl’s has benefited from its expansion of exclusive brands like Dana Buchman and Simply Vera Vera Wang, as well as its focus on cutting costs.
“We continue to experience improvement in inventory management and increased penetration in ‘Only at Kohl’s’ brands,” the chief executive Kevin Mansell said in a statement.
Jobless Claims - 502K vs 512K consensus
Released on 11/12/2009 8:30:00 AM For wk11/7, 2009
Prior 512 K
Consensus 512 K
Consensus Range 495 K to 525 K
Actual 502 K
Highlights
Jobless claims continue to come down. Initial claims fell 12,000 in the Nov. 7 week to a level of 502,000 (prior week revised 2,000 higher to 514,000). The four-week average shows the progress that's underway, down 4,500 to 519,750 for the lowest level since last November. Continuing claims extended their long downward trend, falling a very large 139,000 to 5.631 million (Oct. 31 week). Though some of this improvement may reflect new hiring, much of it unfortunately reflects the expiration of benefits. The number receiving extended benefits fell 28,243 to a level of 523,061, while those receiving emergency compensation rose more than 20,000 to 3.52 million (both Oct. 24 week). The unemployment rate of insured workers continues to fall, down another tenth to 4.3 percent and in big contrast to total unemployment which has continued to rise, jumping to 10.2 percent in October. Unemployment remains high but initial jobless claims are definitely improving in what is a big plus for the labor outlook. Though better than expected, today's report is having no initial impact on financials markets.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Initial jobless claims declined 20,000 in the October 31 week to 512,000. The pace of layoffs has been on a downtrend as the four-week average was down for the ninth straight week, 3,000 lower at 523,750. Continuing claims are also declining but here the change is likely a negative, due largely to the expiration of benefits. Continuing claims, in data for the October 24 week, fell 68,000 to 5.886 million for the seventh decline in a row.
Re: 3Com Options
I think it is great, if in fact your following this up with forensic analysis...we need more efforts like yours to help move price discovery from the category of gambling to investing...thanks!
Re: dollar rebounding
Yes Dave, and gold is up, and S&P passed 1000, and reached 1105.
So, is this contradictory ? It appears to be, any thoughts ?
Sounds like GS's hype is working.
ADVFN
I noticed at 0830...have not checked recently:
Brazil, Russia, Japan, Iceland (from seeking alpha)...looked rough this AM.
the $USD is stronger or was against majors except HKD & CNY...is this the start of something or more of the same?
Re: ADVFN
Note TN that UK and Europe are all up this am, and we always seem to follow. My bets are for an up+ down day, but finishing up 1-2%
Re: dave's short candidates for tomorrow
Be careful with TIF. This stock has low volume and it has been held firmly. I shorted at 42 and it goes no where.
TIF will release earning on 11/25/09 with estimate of $.23. Last quarter, it earned $0.39, the stock jumped from less than to $42.5 now.
Does the earning justify for the price? Probably not but the HB&B are in the upper hand now. Same as WFMI but we have to wait until the time comes.
The WMT earning is just "so so" but the stock goes up to $53.5. The RSI7d and RSI7w are 80.17 and 72.64 respectively. I'll wait for $54 and write put this stock. It's so depressing with low volume stock. Another candidate that I consider is AXP. This stock went up to sky from $34 to more than $40 in the 8 days.
USD versus Employment Report
Those are the competing forces this morning. A rebound in the dollar had the markets seeing red early, and then that reversed with an employment report that was "positive", or rather less bad than expected.
In any case, while there is no confirmation yet that this rally is over, the indexes are overbought and I have gone short the SPXU early (with a tight stop in case the bulls gain the initiative).
Got burned with my TZA trade earlier this week. So I may be still be fighting vainly against the tide.
Update: Well, that didn't take long. Stopped out as the price moved below yesterday's close.
Re: Yamada, Louise
Attached is a Kate Welling interview with Lousie Yamada. It's dated however I think it offers great value.
Watching the money starting to flow into Bio's....
watch the $ 8 to $ 20/ish range... many big things on calender events ahead in the next 3 months... more tha hgsi advancing lupus trials....
typo... more THAN hgsi .....
( other companies )...
Cramer still dumb after all these years
Last nights Mad Money comments, perhaps another couple of contrarian indicators?
Bullish Calls:
Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ): "I want to move you into the mosaic… the basket of junior gold miners which is GDXJ."
Bearish Calls:
Silver Wheaton (SLW): "Okay, Silver Wheaton has been a hot stock but it is not a great stock, and as a matter of fact, I do not want you to own an individual gold or silver stock."
Pinetree Capital & Greystar
Hi All - Nice movement and volumes in Greystar this week despite continued unrest in portions of Columbia. Nice to see D. Rovig's company excel after his run in with the government when he ran Crown Butte - another nice gold/copper project. Have had a position in Pinetree as well and with all the talk of junior miner etfs' I guess some view this as a similar opportunity. Happy Trading
Re: USD versus Employment Report
As an addendum, today's price movement shows that patience is a virtue. I would have done better to wait for the early volatility to play itself out and use the range set in the first half hour for entry/exit points.
As it happened, I re-entered the SPXU trade at a lower price after the bottom of the range was established. Again, this might not work out, but at least I have a better place to establish a stop.
Using small positions and tight stops until a reversal in trend is confirmed.
Re: Cramer still dumb after all these years
Probably this is the most funny post he wrote, but it's too bad that he has a lot of followers and regardless how dumb he said, it moved (at this moment). According to his theory, every sector takes turn to go up and Dow can reach 12000 at the end of this year.
Thsi market is really funny. Oil us up -> gasoline is up -> retailed is up also.
Unemployement is 10.2% -> no problem, retailed is up. The economy is recovery because unemployment is a LAGGING indicator. HaHaHa
http://www.cnbc.com/id/33829619
“This is indeed the ultimate stealth rolling bull market,” Cramer said Tuesday.
While most stock runs are a product of many sectors surging at the same time, the market right now is being carried by just one sector at a time. These rolling sets of bull markets, Cramer said, “mask the true power of this entire move.”
This started back in the spring, when many bank stocks doubled and tripled their way into the summer and then took off again in July. Recently, the semiconductors and retail took the lead. Then a few weeks ago, the tech sector made its move, with Apple [AAPL 204.3102 1.0602 (+0.52%) ] and Microsoft [MSFT 29.36 0.24 (+0.82%) ] leading the charge.
Oil and gas, too, has played a part. The natural gas names like XTO Energy [XTO 43.91 -0.29 (-0.66%) ] and Apache [APA 99.95 -0.68 (-0.68%) ] jumped 15% to 20% and then handed the baton to the oils. Now Occidental Petroleum [OXY 82.38 -0.75 (-0.9%) ] is up almost 10 points, while BP [BP 57.94 -0.39 (-0.67%) ] ramped 10%.
Last week, Warren Buffett’s purchase of Burlington Northern Santa Fe [BNI 97.72 0.07 (+0.07%) ] catalyzed the transports, setting off moves in Union Pacific [UNP 63.28 0.19 (+0.3%) ], CSX [CSX 48.70 0.48 (+1%) ] and others. On Tuesday, defensive stocks that work during a recession registered noteworthy gains, as Altria [MO 19.105 0.135 (+0.71%) ], Coca-Cola [KO 56.2675 0.1375 (+0.24%) ] and Con Ed [ED 42.34 -0.13 (-0.31%) ] pushed higher. A relay race of sorts is under way, and for many investors the pieces aren’t forming a whole picture. But make no mistake, Cramer said, this is a bull market.
So what happens when we run out of sectors? Cramer predicted we’d cycle back to the most rested groups. First the banks and tech, then oil and so on.
“It’s a relentless run higher,” Cramer said.
Re: Cramer still dumb after all these years
Ssssh...don't tell anyone, but Cramer does HB&B's bidding, CNBC just bids for HB&B period, which is "banked" (this typo is intentional) into the cake anyway you slice it.
Yes, with Bills comments about speculatives changing character, if I have that correct, and Cramerica's bullish stance on GDXJ...I have to realize that the odds favor a pull back in Gold. Of course, this may be healthy and will resume its uptrend as it has done many times.
This is just my opinion...any opinions are welcome...am I the only one who sees this? If that is true, then we as a nation are in big trouble!
Re: Cramer still dumb after all these years
I put the Cramer calls in here more as an example of the continueing BS being touted on tout TV. He just happens to be an easy target. IMHO the market is behaving more rationally than many think and one needs to look no further than failed states like Zimbabwe for example. As the Obama faithful meddle with the US economy and debase the USD the rational place for those holding USD is to invest in assets, stocks do qualify as financial assets. Look at two things in particular, 0.25% interest rates and exploding money supply. There is really no lending being extended to businesses etc. so money is going to the next logical place, the markets. We may get a correction even a mini-crash but overall until folks feel like investing in the Main St economy, markets will continue to rise. Just my 2 cents. BTW BC is dead on, trade prices and be very aware what the s/t trend and l/t trends are, it's your money.
Suggestions feedback
There were some comments yesterday about the suggestions site that I wanted to address.
Yes, you have to sign up for an account there. Unfortunately, out of free third-party services, none would let us use our user database and only one would let anonymous users post suggestions (but not vote on any). Since the site I chose has a pretty simple sign-on process, I thought that was best. Realize that I chose the route I did because it was the fastest for me. There IS an add-on for our website software that would allow us to have a similar feature built into the site (using your existing logins), but it is currently not compatible with our database setup and the new version that should be compatible is still months away.
I understand the desire to only have site users provide suggestions, though in it's current incarnation, the only people I expect to provide suggestions who do not have a Cara Community login are those who read the site but never signed up for an account. I am curious to hear what they have to say, though I am inclined to weight heavy users of the site more.
Really, this was just a quick and easy way to get suggestions. If you don't want to sign up for an account there, feel free to send me any suggestions via my contact form on this site. The rankings on that site are just a rough guide of ideas people like or dislike, so it probably isn't a big deal if only a small portion of the community participates. Some day I will come up with a better system, but until then this is the easiest way for me.
For those who didn't read the original post, the site is here: http://www.fevote.com/cara_community
Re: Suggestions feedback
Since I am still able to read and reply I assume the extra sign-in is for those who wish to rate comments.
Correct?
Saved this one for a rainy day.....
For Messrs. Paulson, Bernanke, Geithner, et al.,,, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0FiKHaSRMeg
Adding to shorts
While the large cap indices p reached new highs yesterday, the Russell 2000, transports, and financials each did not. And the % of stocks above their 50 DMA's is considerably less than at other short term highs over the past few months. While tops often take a while to develop, I feel pretty confident that this one is in the later stages of concluding.
Re: Adding to shorts
pretty confident that this one is in the later stages of concluding.
please elaborate
mis direction day
Next week is expirations week.
Today is mis direction day.
Careful about intializing positions today.
Will HBB run the market up to help them justify their year end bonuses?
My 2 cents....
Bear E
Re: Cramer still dumb after all these years
"until folks feel like investing in the Main St economy"
This is anecdotal at this point, but I have now noticed some small loans to one of my companies (very speculative and small penny stock), which is well secured to be sure. Now, of course one small loan doesn't a flood make...true, but starting may be the hardest part. Confidence may return to the "confidence game" at some point (that guy with the bow tie who lives in China sure does agree that equities could go much higher; could be somewhat dated, but relevant nonetheless)...would be nice for my longs...how long could it be...when will it end...what will volatility look like?
U.S Housing Crisis is far from over.
http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/option-arms-ent...
From Calc. Risk:
Below is an example of an actual mortgage modification between Bank of America and a homeowner. It demonstrates the state of things.
Here is an unsolicited Principal Reduction Loan Modification (pdf)
A few background details:
The homeowner bought the house in May 2005 for $420,000.
The homeowner refinanced in March 2006. This included a negatively amortizing adjustable rate mortgage (NegAM ARM) first with BofA for $392,000, and a 2nd with IndyMac for $49,000. (Total = $441,000)
For personal reasons, the homeowner was no longer able to make the payment, and is now delinquent. This unsolicited offer is from a BofA internal program.
The balance due is currently $429,000 and the homeowner owes another $17,000 in delinquent payments. (Total due is $446,000 for 1st, not including 2nd)
The house would probably sell for about $325,000.
The offer from BofA:
BofA is offering to reduce the principal (including delinquent payments) to $334,400.
The new loan would be a fixed rate at 5.5%, with the same term (about 25 years left), but amortized over 40 years. In 25 years the homeowner would owe a balloon payment of $198,000.
The current minimum payment is $1,966 (not including taxes and insurance), and the payments on the new loan would be $1,725 per month (principal and interest).
There is no mention of the 2nd in the offer.
If the homeowner accepts the offer, he would still owe more on the 1st than the house is worth (the 2nd mortgage would have to be resolved). The personal issue still exists, and reducing the monthly payments by a couple of hundred dollars probably will not help.
UPDATE: The number is answered by a recording that announces they are a "debt collector", and then says they are now closed.
Re: Cramer still dumb after all these years
ALOHA !!
First of all Cramer would have done his credibility good to point out that the GDXJ is not "juniors". What is a 100 year old major producer like CDE doing on a "junior" list? Many of the companies that proliferate the GDXJ are the same ones that proliferate USERX and the producer indexes. There are a few true "juniors" like UXG, but as a pure "junior" index it is not.
Had I listened to Cramer's logic I would have missed out on a 550% gain in my portfolio this year and I wouldn't have even thought of the ASX or the AUD.
I have no TV ... Without a TV it forces one to spend time thinking "outside the BOX"(literally)!
In all honesty if anyone had just turned off their TVs and just closed their bank accounts and liquidated 401ks back in 2001 and then just bought nothing but gold you would have had 50%+ average annual returns and never would have paid a single dime in commissions or management fees. Just sell off and go on a eight year vacation!
HIDDEN COMMENT
ALOHA !!
I am not sure why this link is at the top of my last post ...
(view hidden comment) U.S Housing Crisis is far from over. newby Houston Oilers
Why is it "hidden"?
Does everybody see it or just me?
Where's the blue pill?
'sound money' candidates
* Ron Paul - Texas District 14
* Jake Towne - Pennsylvania District 15
* John Dennis - California District 8 [Pelosi district]
* Mike Vasovski - South Carolina District 3
* Rand Paul - Kentucky Senate
* Peter Schiff - Schiff for Senate
just looking into a few of these; here are some things found so far that may be of interest:
http://towneforcongress.com/economy/remember-remem...
http://towneforcongress.com/economy/to-nancy-pelos...
------------
btw, did you notice the Reps and Dems play the 'one hand washes the other' game vs candidate Hoffman in NY:
Dede Scozzafava, who'd been chosen by local Republican leaders to try to hold the seat for the GOP, instead threw her support behind Democrat Bill Owens -- only a day after she unexpectedly backed out of the tough, three-way special election.
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/6...
2-party system?
Re: HIDDEN COMMENT
I can see it as well Kaimu.
Since it is only his 3rd post it could be waiting for approval.
Just my guess.
May the trade winds be with you
Re: dollar rebounding
allengg - the buck has made a roundtrip - if you notice, it rallied from 75 to 76.50, and then dropped back down to the 75 level. At that same time, the SPX also did a roundtrip. It hit 1100, dropped to 1040, and is now back to 1100. SPX has seemed to move pretty closely with the buck.
Except for today, of course. With the buck up 0.80, I would have expected SPX to take more of a pounding. Oil certainly has, with silver not far behind. Gold is holding up the best.
Every now and then when the buck threatens a rally I short silver for the day and that seems to pay off pretty well. Today, for instance. Gold is just too strong right now to short.
Re: Suggestions feedback
The new login is only to use the suggestions forum at FeVote.com. You should be able to use your existing login for anything on CaraCommunity.com.
Thoughts on the Coming Weeks
http://www.cnbc.com/id/33883098
I think this article is very important to investors. We need to think of the implications of this news on the markets. Geithner states that they will take the TARP repayments to pay down debt and "he expects "substantial repayments" by banks in the coming weeks". While this may or may not be true, what implications does it have for the market as this is clearly in the psyche of traders? I believe this is one of the many reasons why the dollar may go up, why some regional banks may rise (I believe RF is ready to repay TARP) and why commodities may have some problems.
Maybe we should be buying ITM calls on UUP and selling shorter term calls on Gold?
Re: HIDDEN COMMENT
The comment is hidden because the ratings on it were too low. I gave it a higher rating to make it visible again. I originally wrote the cut-off point for a 5-star system, but then Bill suggested I change it to a 7-star system. So it is probably hiding some comments that were not well-rated, but not overwhelmingly rated as spam. I'll fix that tonight.
trades for today
As I was glancing at the market during breakfast, I saw that my buy stop order on TZA was executed at $12.10. SRS, however, is lagging behind, and did not hit my buy stop at $9.25 yet. So I just bought it manually at $9.15, after seeing such a strong spike up in $USD and the fact that XLF is still performing worse than S&P (so the outperformance of XLF by IYR is a temporary phenomenon, and tomorrow they may trade places in being the downside leader).
Re: HIDDEN COMMENT
yes i see it Kaimu..i am so confused by these changes.. so far not liking it at ALL.
Options
Bill says to watch unusual options action as the insiders have been tipping their hat to future movements through movements in the options markets. I've noticed today that there has been a lot of volume on the $5 November Puts of RF. Typically with such high volume, I would be worried about a near term correction, but I have been watching these since the volume was around 8,000 options (now over 20,000) and they have been selling these at the Bid price almost all day. Again, I think this bank will be repaying the TARP funds and this could be a catalyst for the stock...
Re: HIDDEN COMMENT
To be clear, if you click on the hidden comment, you can still see it. We aren't removing comments based on user votes, we just aren't displaying them in the regular flow of comments.
30 yr bond auction today
results at http://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/p...
Big spike down in prices and then right back to where prices were before the auction. What's going on here?
HAWAII CARE
ALOHA !!
THIS IS NOT ABOUT HEALTH CARE IT IS ABOUT "JOB CARE"! Really this effects "small businesses" across America.
Okay ... I know Obama is from Hawaii but does he have to drag Hawaii healthcare insurance to DC with him? I never see him in an ALOHA SHIRT or doing the HULA. He seems to have left those "good" things about Hawaii behind and just brought the "bad" stuff!
Plain and simple as I have pointed out the "small business" in America, the backbone for jobs, is being decimated. Last year(FY 2009) the SBA only received around $5BIL funding while the US FED "trading banks" got $700BIL! I have also pointed out that in order to get a SBA loan you need to prove you don't need a SBA loan. The loan application at the SBA is not just a one page application like Goldman Sachs fills out to get $40BIL.
Here in Hawaii it is a law that an employer must pay at least half of an employees health insurance if that employee works 20 hours or more. For the big companies here they pay 100%, as they say, out of "courtesy", but the smaller companies cannot afford to do that and even the bigger companies are rethinking that and cutting back in these difficult times.
It turns out now there are a lot of "part-time" jobs around here but very few full-time. I wonder why?
FROM MISES.ORG
Obamacare is a Devastating Tax on the Working Class
Obamacare as Labor Tax
According to pages 269–273 of the gargantuan bill, employers of full-time workers will be required to cover at least 72.5 percent of the premium of the least expensive health-insurance plan available that fulfills the bill's minimum criteria of "acceptable coverage." In cases in which family coverage is provided, 62.5 percent of the premium is to be borne by the employer. Depending on the specific plan and other variables such as location, this amounts to a direct labor tax of approximately $300 per month for an individual, or nearly $700 for family coverage.
The implication of this increased cost is that workers whose revenue productivity is less than $300 per month higher than their wages will be laid off, or have their hours cut to the level that will classify them as part-time. Ignoring established labor law, the bill leaves the definition of part-time and full-time to the discretion of the Commissioner of Obama's massive new health bureaucracy. The lower the new "Health Choices Commissioner" sets the threshold in an attempt to maximize the number of people receiving the employer contribution, the more hours of production employers will have to shave off to push their employees under the threshold, and the less those workers will take home in wages each week.
Unfortunately, the bill also requires employers to cover a (smaller) percentage of the premium of the same minimum plan for part-time workers. The effects here are even worse than above, because they weaken the ability of an employer to escape the labor tax by employing his workers for fewer hours. Instead, with a labor tax on part-time workers as well, some low-productivity workers who are currently only working a few hours per week will be forced out of work entirely.(more)
LINK: http://mises.org/daily/3855
As this will lower wages for those wishing to save their employment, the employee will compensate the employer rather than face a job loss.
Then in rural America this will drive many to "under the table" pay. Which is really a "black market" labor pool that is prevalent in many sectors. Just go to a Home Depot parking lot in the morning. You'll know its really bad when you see a IBM van pull up at Home Depot!
I thought OBAMA was suppose to "create" more jobs. I could swear every thing he has done since he took office has lost jobs.
Surely if you go by SBA funding standards the US Treasury clearly shows they could care less about "small business". It shows ... When Obama and the US government dump "small business" they are dumping the largest source of job creation.
I personally have cut my labor by 50%! Mainly due to lower sales but then I also get sick of the increased burden the Fed and State put on me to have employees. I could downsize to ZERO employees! I could just stop and go on vacation ...
Here is an e-mail I get every couple three weeks or so. When I first started up in 1999 I never saw these types of e-mails at all. Only in the last year or so.
Cooler for Sale
Bush Cooler
20 x 8 x 8 walk-in cooler with 7 front reach-in doors . It's 4 years old. We are closing down and also have a flower leaf and thorn stripper and lots of supplies,fixtures and merchandise for sale.
Mylene 808-479-3240
Mylene's Floral wholesale
When a small business shuts down it is a ripple effect throughout the local economy. Its felt all through the retail and wholesale chain, because as you can see by the e-mail a lot of equipment and supplies will no longer be in demand, which translates to more exponential job losses.
One of the largest and oldest anthurium nurseries went under last year. They are so old they have PO BOX 1! I spoke with the owner and she said the labor overhead was one of the main reasons, but then she admitted to me, "You just get tired of fighting all the time to keep your doors open!"
Another issue is that a lot of nurseries expanded during the boom taking on more debt and now they are paying the price. I think I was the only nursery that did not expand and take on more debt.
I see the flower industry here in Hawaii will be like the US Banking system. Whichever nurseries are left standing after all this "debt attrition" will have a virtual MONOPOLY.
Re: HIDDEN COMMENT
52221 is not hidden on mine.
Edit: Whoops all of a sudden it is a whole other post from a different writer!
Edit again: For a time I picked up another post just ahead of Kaimu, then the oilers post, but again not hidden at any time.
Re: HIDDEN COMMENT
The heck with the star system. We are making this more complicated then necessary.
The solution is and has existed all along, just use the ignore thread button or the ignore user button and that thread or user is out of your life forever.
Also, we should state that this blog is for mature audience only (MA)and not have to dumb down to GP 13. Except for those who blatantly attacked Bill Cara no one needs to be outlawed if they follow the rules.
Personally, I prefer different points of view and find one think/group think stifling.
So use the ignore button and stop complaining and causing as these extra headache's for the provider's of this blog. If you agree with what I stated give it high rating.
Remember... CNBC will tout the equities that the managers
are looking to unload... think ' Sectors not being pumped '... watch the money flow on down days... I see some strong inflows...
Cargill warns on self-sufficiency
The drive towards self-sufficiency in response to last year's food crisis will fail, a top executive at Cargill has warned, adding that the idea that countries "can be self-sufficient in every single food is a nonsense".
if you start with a nonsensical premise, it shouldnt be surprising that you end with a nonsensical conclusion. countries dont need 'every single food' to feed their populations. apparently the 'top executive' missed the 40,000 years or so of human history up until 1980. 'warned'--nice.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3c4f7322-cd9a-11de-8162-...
Re: Thoughts on the Coming Weeks
tof,
Personally, I believe nothing Geithner says to be close to the truth. (I doubt he understands the concept of truth. "Strong dollar"?) As for CNBC — I see them as a mainline conduit for Wall St., CEOs and central banks. Cramer is their rep.
As in any misinformation service it helps to occasionally slip in a pinch of the genuine for credibility leavening.
For short term traders the trick is to determine whether enough people will swallow this pap. As a longer term trader/investor I'll pay no attention and stick with Vad's advice to trade what I see and wait for some genuine changes to show.
new stuff
Ok, I think there is a lot of potential in the new way. AND it frees up our host from babysitting. Sure, it is change and none of us are all that cool to change, but give it some time....
Korvus, keep fine tuning, that is all that is needed.
T3d, I enjoy and learn from your posts, but Bill(the host)wants everyone to be able to read without being offended. This is a blog about finances, so it should not be that hard to comply with such a request. BUT we all have seen serious non compliance and the stress that it causes to our host.
thanks to all.
PARENT
ALOHA !!
What is this thing called "PARENT" on hidden comments?
When I click it I am taken back to the prior window, so it seems it must be another "back button" or am I missing its purpose?
Just trying to figure it all out ...
Re: new stuff
No imagination, I appreciate your thoughts.
But, if everyone would use the ignore buttons they can personally adjust and eliminate those that they find offensive or annoying (like many may find me, so what).
We all can modify to our tastes and it is like setting preferences on ones computer, a win win.
GP13 is fine with me, I just think that the population at large aka the human species is way to diverse to be regulated to a "Lilly White" standard and we are setting ourselves up for failure to expect it.
Again, use the ignore button to satisfy your own personal standards and many of the problems cease to exist.
BTW, where's 2nd? Did he get outlawed because some people think he post's too much when they could have used the ignore button. This is ridiculous.
Just playing.
I just gave all the hidden messages high ratings and they reappeared on my main scroll. I believe it probably happened with everyone. I think we should give this system time. It might clear a lot of clutter once we get use to it.
Bob
Re: HIDDEN COMMENT
"The heck with the star system. We are making this more complicated then necessary."
I totally agree. When people know that their comments can be hidden because a few people decide to rate them at 1, they will be less motivated to make the effort of posting some ideas that could be useful to THOUSANDS of other readers of this blog. How can we participate in "brainstorming" the market if we do not have free speech?
Re: Adding to shorts
based on the technicals I follow, the 1100-1125 area is a big area of resistance, as well as the 50% retracement level of the oct 07 high to the march 09 low. several important sectors are diverging, the gains are concentrated in less and less stocks, sentiment is very bullish, lot of m&a activity, insider selling is up, etc etc etc
HWP/COMS merger
It changes the landscape:
http://www.networkcomputing.com/data-center/cisco-...
edit: my bad...reread it and it does not directly mention 3com.
edit,edit: however, interesting work about competitive landscape, which alludes to, in my opinion, the legacy problem(s)that have plagued the technology space for many years...GOOG and others are changing the game.
edit/edit/edit:
apparently, I must just like John Chambers or something, as it was HWP and not CSCO that picked up COMS...sorry about that...maybe I should rest some.
Re: HIDDEN COMMENT
As bobbyo says, maybe it's best to give it time. The previous system was obviously not working for Bill, it was being abused and littered with junk messages. This new way seems to be working fine now. I think change is good.
not taking profits on my shorts
This time I am not taking early profit on my shorts (FCX, TZA, SRS, KRE), as I feel that I opened them (yesterday) close to the top of the "wave" in S&P, and the next low in this wave (even if it sets new highs in the next few days) will be significantly below the present level. The mid-October high in S&P was 2% higher than the mid-September high, but back then XLF made a new high as well and the market breadth was much stronger. With the major breadth weakness in XLF and IWM, yesterday's high in S&P could indeed be the highest point in this wave.
Bill's story
thank you Bill for sharing the story about your father's return from WWII. I have a very young son and your story made me very sad and very thankful.
Re: not taking profits on my shorts
David-
Good luck holding the shorts. After the past year, I get so excited when I have a profit I'm too quick to take it. Lost out on some PM profits because of that.
I have been using IWM options instead of 3x ETFs (eg TZA TNA) for short term plays. Sold Dec $58 puts I picked up yesterday at $1.66 for $2.10. They appear to be very liquid and have bid/ask spreads a penny or 2 apart near or at the money... Puts less capital at risk for the same gain (or loss).
FD: I'm a novice with the options.
KC
SDS
SDS looks like it may be setting up for its mid-month bounce. Got to try it.
GDXJ - what's a junior? what are its index components?
Kaimu raises a good question.
To me a 100 year old company can't still be a "junior". Indeed, a "start-up" that has operated 20 years without "graduating" to mid-tier or being acquired is IMO hardly a junior. This disqualifies AZM or ER, for example.
On the other hand, we can't expect success during "youth" as in a tech startup. Finding and developing metals can simply take longer than developing a better tech product. Apparently, RBY took 8 years to do so.
It IS interesting that several emerging producers of interest to this community are in GDXJ: Alamos, San Gold, New Gold, Northgate, Jaguar. The "growing emerging producer" bounce is probably second only to the "massive new resource" bounce.
Still, what's missing from GDXJ is components which have a shot at a >10x return. For me that's the essence of a junior. Also, except for FRG, are there any "prospect generators" in the list? Isn't the best risk/reward in juniors, those which rapidly create multiple "lottery tickets" and avoid becoming wedded to a single "flagship project"? A flagship leads to a series of dilutive financings. I don't see enough high-reward "lottery tickets" in GDXJ.
HOWEVER, if you buy any individual component (on its individual merits) rest assured that market acceptance of GDXJ will mean increased demand for its stock.
(to see the current GDXJ components, click the button with the excel logo on the upper right of this page: http://www.vaneck.com/index.cfm?cat=3192&cGroup=ET... )
Bill Harris on BNN - good on gold stocks, market strategy
Bill Harris of Avenue Investments talks like a guy who REALLY knows resource stocks. He is a "steady eddie", knows fundies cold, but also sees the technicals.
http://watch.bnn.ca/market-call-tonight/november-2...
3 clips in all (one flows to the other) total 1 hour, but worth your time.
He’s big on the concept that there are very few mid-tier gold producers (200K oz/yr.) who can grow into senior status, or become an attractive acquisition for a senior. If they have mines in N. America, so much the better. San Gold and Alamos are both on that short list. AND they have both been flat for the last few months as the gold price has soared.
He makes another cool point. That when a commodity breaks a psychologically key number (holding above 1K for gold) there’s not predicting how high it may go. And, he believes, at some point these up and coming mid-tiers should be well rewarded, with faster stock price rises than you’ll ever see in a senior.
These emerging mid-tiers have to be a better risk reward than exploration juniors, at least until a real mania takes hold.
Also interesting is his general market orientation, to look for solid steady stocks with a proven ability to produce 10% returns p.a. (AEM, IMO, TRP, ECA, etc.) That, he feels, should be the goal of your core strategy.
Bill Harris on BNN - good on gold stocks, market strategy
Bill Harris of Avenue Investments talks like a guy who REALLY knows resource stocks. He is a "steady eddie", knows fundies cold, but also sees the technicals.
http://watch.bnn.ca/market-call-tonight/november-2...
3 clips in all (one flows to the other) total 1 hour, but worth your time.
He’s big on the concept that there are very few mid-tier gold producers (200K oz/yr.) who can grow into senior status, or become an attractive acquisition for a senior. If they have mines in N. America, so much the better. San Gold and Alamos are both on that short list. AND they have both been flat for the last few months as the gold price has soared.
He makes another cool point. That when a commodity breaks a psychologically key number (holding above 1K for gold) there’s no predicting how high it may go. And, he believes, at some point these up and coming mid-tiers should be well rewarded, with faster stock price rises than you’ll ever see in a senior.
These emerging mid-tiers have to be a better risk reward than exploration juniors, at least until a real mania takes hold.
Also interesting is his general market orientation, to look for solid steady stocks with a proven ability to produce 10% returns p.a. (AEM, IMO, TRP, ECA, etc.) That, he feels, should be the goal of your core strategy.
Re: Pinetree Capital & Greystar
Luggie - you wrote "Nice movement and volumes in Greystar this week despite continued unrest in portions of Columbia" ....
It's even crazier than that. Greystar's deposit is near Bucaramanga, a heavily FARC-infested area of Colombia. Same thing for VEN.V Ventana gold.
A headline of a FARC raid in that neighborhood should bring these stocks crashing down. Sadly they're too hot to short safely. You can only marvel at peoples' ability to ignore bad news!
Re: PARENT
Parent brings you back to the commentary where that comment should have been. In most cases, that will be the same as the back button.
But, as an example, if I post this link: http://caracommunity.com/node/768/52148#comment-52148 and you follow it, the "parent" link will bring you back to the page it was originally on, not back to this page as the back button would do.
Does that make sense? The "parent" of a comment is the post where the comment was entered.
Everyone, keep the questions and feedback coming. When I have time to work on the site tonight/tomorrow, I'll take the comments into account when I tweak the system. I may even switch to a simpler system where you can simply mark a message as spam/offensive...and if we get enough of those, we'll hide it until a moderator (such as myself) and review it. I don't want to restrict speech here, but if it's a comment that Bill would delete if he saw it, I'd prefer that we as a community figure that out so he doesn't have to bother with it!
Re: PARENT
'I may even switch to a simpler system where you can simply mark a message as spam/offensive...and if we get enough of those, we'll hide it until a moderator (such as myself) and review it.'
That sounds better to me. and if the same person is constantly offended a great deal more than the rest of us, maybe discount his/her vote?
You stated the goal 'we as a community figure that out so he(Bill) doesn't have to bother with it!'perfectly. Perhaps there are other ways to accomplish and they will be suggested.
Thanks for hard work.
Re: new stuff
"BTW, where's 2nd? Did he get outlawed because some people think he post's too much when they could have used the ignore button. This is ridiculous."
Telestar3d, 2nd_ave is posting on a different blog now, as he was put off by the latest developments of events here.
Re: Bill Harris on BNN - good on gold stocks, market strategy
Hi Jock - Thanks for the link to Bill Harris - good stuff. Guess I have come away from the session with intent to go for it on Imperial Oil & will be looking for an entry point. I know how you feel regards Greystar - I am not married to it, but started a position in April on the strength of lots of ounces and own a nice chunk free - so to speak, and will ride it a while longer, but would not(like you)recommend entry for others now. Happy Trading
$rut
nasty hs top with a double top for the head (similar to $sox),all sorts of divergences and non confirmations apearing in many indexes.Megaphone tops in a few like the $hui perhaps?
$nya volume pattern might suggest a large increase in down volume soon?
Re: new stuff
Don't comment here very often... Which blog is 2nd_ave on?? ... I'm headed there...
Re: PARENT
"I may even switch to a simpler system where you can simply mark a message as spam/offensive...and if we get enough of those, we'll hide it until a moderator (such as myself) and review it."
That would be much better than the current system, as at least it will not discourage posters from expressing their thoughts, as their thoughts will not be *rated.*
Teamonfuego On Buying Regional Banks
teamonfuego -
Yesterday you posted #52212 "... So I think the issues that people are concerned about are already priced into these stocks which are down some 80 to 90% from their highs. Add in that they have gotten some high quality deposits basically for free from the FDIC assisted bank closings and I think they are long term winners.
FD: I bought a bunch of RF at $4.92 and HBAN at $3.87 this morning. Support is at the 200 DMA.."
These zombie regional banks are down for a reason: The Fed is pumping life into them as they roam Davey Jone's Locker 20,000 leagues under the sea. For banks with 'assets' over $1B, RF and HBAN rank 219 and 203, respectively, out of 690 banks with WAY too much commercial debt exposure waiting for their FDIC marching orders as 'extend and pretend' ramps into 2010-11 It will just take time to unwind (default) and identify the viable debt and once that becomes apparent, FDIC will shut them down and allow HB&B to pick up that low-hanging fruit (viable debt). Big fish eats little fish. They won't lend with zero percent money for fear of the commercial real estate fallout and are only attempting to preserve reserve balances or face asphyxiation. You're just gambling against the Fed with their air supply. I honestly don't think these two will ever float to the top but a forced consolidation is likely with the equity holders eventually holding an empty bag.
http://bankimplode.com/list/troubledassets.htm
Ignore versus Star
For me, the problem with the "Ignore user" and "Ignore thread" is that they both are so sweeping in their usage. (tossing baby with the bath water comes to mind)
In my opinion one recently banned user (we all know who) was a good example of being a double-edged sword of information (good and bad), humour (funny sometimes and really offensive at other times), prejudices (which we all have but SHOULD be kept to ourselves) etc. etc...
He was finally banned for too many transgressions.
(I believe the star system also incorporates a ban after so many times of crossing-the-line, does it not?)
But to absolutely ignore him or his threads entirely was not something I personally was willing to do.
There was times when the things he wrote should indeed be ignored... other times given heed to the value that was in them.
The star system appears be able to boot-the-bad from general reading that a user writes at any single time and to compliment or show agreement by highlighting the good for the rest of us to take a closer look at...
and maybe it is also a small way that we can help to lighten the load being carried by Bill for our benefit.
So far, I am for it.
I suspect that after the newness of the rating system wears off it won't be used all that much except for the best of the best and the worst of the worst which just may be the point.
Even so my curiosity usually makes me hit the hidden button anyway.
Small Boatload O' Charts
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/11/small-boat...
Small Boatload O' Charts posted.
Comments appreciated....lots of Cara viewers, no comments...
Regional Banks.
Platinum
Dow Jones total market
APC (Oil)
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/11/size-does-...
Comments system
There is no Big Brother involved. I am not even involved. I put all of this in the hands of korvus who is one of the most capable people we have on our team. I am not concerned at all. He and you will work it out.
Re: Teamonfuego On Buying Regional Banks
This data is from 3/31/09.
Re: PARENT
I agree, just a 'flag this post' would be better than a ranking system. And if it gets flagged by X number of people, it completely disappears. Then it's up to the moderator to review it. If it is indeed offensive, original poster is warned/banned. If not, it gets put back on, and maybe the people who flagged it get their 'flag weighting' reduced (that's probably pushing it :)
comments
I am of the opinion that free speech should not be hindered as long as it is done in a gentlemanly manner. No one and I mean no one from the top down should be immune from criticism but it must be done tastefully and objectively. This is the only way people are able to improve themselves. I have been in the background for a long while now and have noticed that many are quite defensive here about critisism. I did notice that "golong" one vocal poster was recently banned. I believe he had many valid points about the blog as well as trading but he could not communicate them properly. I actually liked the guy. I have his tendency as well and need to improve on my delivery.
As for the new system nothing will change much. After time people will go back to old habits. The star system is silly to me will not solve anything because if you don't like a particular poster then you most likely will want to try and hinder their expressions by issuing poor votes for them and ultimately getting them banned. That is what I would do given this choice as there are posters here that make me nuts but, at the same time they do have a right to say the things they say and this is why the best solution is still the ignore post button. Some people like listening to Beck and some Jon Stewart. The ignore button gives people that choice.
So in conclusion no one should be disallowed from the site no matter how vocal in their criticism. As long as they don't use profanity,libel or personally attack anyone then they should be allowed to post.
P.S. The suggestion of having a separate traders blog sounds pretty good as long as there are discussion of strategy and not just what a person bought or sold.
Re: PARENT
Perhaps better would be a two or three tiered ranking:
1 and/or 2...Spam/Offensive
3 A waste of time/No added value.
I agree that a simplification would be better.
For the grossly offensive there is the new Complaint Hotline on the homepage.
Edit: It all depends on Bill's intentions with the rating system. Does he want to just weed out ugly posts or does he want to reduce the total amount of posts by fine tuning with a rating system? The latter would, I suppose reward in some way the most popular and "awesome" posters and reduce frivolous posts. That might be a good thing. Downside is all this complex rating takes a bit of time by the user. Might be worth a trial then maybe you can go to a simpler 2 or 3 vote system.
I like the idea of terrible rated comments go hidden
I think that's a very workable and reasonable way for it to work, especially when people have the option to see it if they wish, and are willing to click to find out what was there. And if they think it was really worthwhile, they can give it a high rating, and I'd bet if a percentage of people do so, it will not be hidden anymore.
Poll on comment solution
Ok, I want to make sure I come up with a solution to policing the comments that makes the most people happy. So I put a few options in a poll, and I'd like to know what everyone thinks. I'll close the poll sometime tomorrow (at my discretion, depending on when I feel like implementing a solution). If I've missed something or if there are other strong opinions, put them in the comments there. I will look at the results of the poll and all the comments before I make any changes. Please give me your input, because I really don't want to implement anything that will push away a large part of the community.
Here is the poll
Re: Teamonfuego On Buying Regional Banks
teamonfuego -
Okay, so you don't like valid 8.5 month old data, eh. Well, let's try a crystal ball showing all those resets for RF and HBAN as provided by the Pragmatic Capitalist. Fly monkeys. Fly! ehhhaaa ha ha ha!
http://pragcap.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/loan...
Edit: When the FDIC does announce closure, it will be on a weekend so that come Monday your equity will be gone, gone-gone-gone, really gone.