Daily Trading & Social Commentary for Nov. 6

Hey,I just heard that Wall Street is getting a priority for the H1N1 vaccine from the CEDC. Thats outrageous and outside of the CEDC's own guidelines.

Source is radio program Democracy Now.

You may notice a letter from your credit card company in the mail. READ IT!

Until February 2010, the credit card companies have lots of time to 'inform consumers' that they are raising their interest rates dramatically. Don't be surprised to see up to 30% as your new interest rate. All in time for Christmas. All in time to 'inform us' before the new congressional bill takes effect stopping them from raising our rates.

Could be one big reason consumer debt is down! What's your choice? When you get the letter, call your card company and tell them you wish to OPT OUT of the increase. Which means your card will be frozen. You will have the option to pay it off and keep it open with a zero balance (for the foreseeable future) or transfer to another lower balance card. As long as you get one that guarantees your rate beyond February 2010 that is.

Note: don't close the card as that lowers your available credit. More posts on how to work the credit system: www.netcredit.blogspot.com

Happy hunting!

Mish Shedlock had an article today on the current Canadian housing bubble (A Canadian says short Canada: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/11...)... Where I live there is indeed a bubble and I see many of the points in the articles, mainly that the Federal govt. is in bad fiscal shape, and the Ontario govt. is worse and is or will be nearly insolvent (and likely others), and so will be many cities (mine included, they keep rasing taxes, 10% estimated for next year).

House prices are at record highs here. With 1.5% or 1.75% mortgage rates, it is no wonder.

So in the event that houses at some point prices collapse or at least drop significantly, how can a homeowner who has paid for his house, and does not want to sell, protect the current value?

Basically, the homeowner would like to buy a put on his house. Insurance if you will.

There is no such thing, but there are more or less proxies: for example buying HIF.to straight (inverse financials ETFs), or buying puts on XFN.to (financials index). It will be expensive, but it is insurance. XRE is an ETF for commercial real estate and is not at its highs.

Other ideas anyone, based on the conditions above?

Thank you.

ALOHA !!

Hyatt IPO raises $950 million

Hyatt, the hotel chain owned by Chicago's storied Pritzker clan, raised $950 million in its initial public offering Thursday, as the hotel chain took its shares public. Shares were priced at $25, but closed up 12 percent Thursday, near $28 a share.

The Pritzker family stands to benefit from the cash raised by the IPO, the result of a $6 billion lawsuit filed by Liesel Pritzker against her father and 11 older cousins. The family has agreed to sell off the family assets and divide the funds among Jay Pritzker's heirs though they initially claimed that Hyatt would remain private.

One generation "earns" it the next one plunders it!

Penny Pritzker(Chicago politbureau) had to quit her Obama post due to her disgrace as a bank owner at Superior Bank, where she was a co-founder of the SUBPRIME business model. Penny was Obama's choice as Campaign Financial Manager so when I read that I knew a vote for Obama was a CHANGE YOU CAN'T BELIEVE IN! He made a conscious decision to hand pick Penny for his campaign, probably because she had all the MEGA-wealth base in her pocket. A choice like that speaks volumes to character. Did he think nobody would notice?

Where to get money for her next fraud? "Hey I know ... Let's IPO!"

I wouldn't touch HYATT stock with Penny's ten foot pole just on a matter of principle. Principle? Whats that?

Integrity used to be...but alas Kaimu, we as a nation have progressively and perpetually plowed the row of lowered expectations. Wish I could be more positive and plum you a different line, but it is what it is...nite and have a great weekend.

Depending on taxes in Canada, you should sell your home before the bust and rent. Then rebuy after the crash if you wish. Can't begin to tell you how many here in Florida wished they had done so including myself.

"3) If demographics truly is destiny, then America’s future sucks. Brace yourself. We are turning into Japan. As a silver tsunami of 80 million baby boomers retires, they will be followed by only 65 million from generation “X”. The intractable problems that unhappy Japan is facing will soon arrive at our shores. Boomers, therefore, better not count on the next generation to buy them out of their homes at premium prices, especially if they are still living in the basement. They are looking at best at an “L” shaped recovery, which means no recovery at all."

http://blog.madhedgefundtrader.com/

davier,

Yes the RSI tool is thanks to Korvus who wrote and maintains the program. For tips I've put together some notes, see the menu at the top of this page, "Site Index" >> "Website Help">> "RSI Tool", or just follow the link below.

Basically the RSI tool can also be used for most US, Canadian and international stocks. Just make sure the data entry block is empty, use the "Clear" button, then input your string of stock symbols (use the symbol coding from Yahoo), separated by spaces, then hit the "Go" button and wait a few minutes, (the "Go" button will change to "Gone" while the program is retrieving and calculating the data).

Note in order to calculate the various RSI values there must be historical data on Yahoo. Stocks are usually not a problem and most tracking indexes also have data, (domestic and international), just be sure to include the ^ prefix, such as ^DJI , example checking for historic data,
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=^DJI

http://caracommunity.com/content/rsi-tool

edit: I see Saunders already beat me to the punchline, but I would still read the help file as it provides a few more ideas.

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2009/11/saturday-mornin...

Women have come a long way, and they'll be taking over Wall Street any day now. I can only hope Alan Abelson is paying careful attention!

Rough and tumble it is.

The Federal coverage of pensions is done by the Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation (http://www.pbgc.gov/). When they are called in, they usually only cover $0.10-$0.15 on the $1.

"Your premise that when time's are bad public employees should share the pain. How about when times are good? Should they not benefit also? When the economy is good should not the wealth be spread around?"

Laughable, hardly. Perhaps in the smaller more rural regions of the US this is not the case, but in the larger cities, it is the norm. They do share the good-their bureaucracies expand. The level of bureaucracy is much higher and efficiency much lower. They get to keep their jobs in economic downturns when others would be fired or laid off in the private sector. The bureaucracy becomes institutionalized.

Yes, those cultural influences are real. Their cultural strength resists the "indoctrination" effects of American culture. So, my description of "relative" is accurate. I did not say "absolutely."

The extremes of executive pay are another issue on which we in agreement, but that is another issue. I was addressing bureaucratic waste, not the pay of the executive ranks-two completely different issues. When talking about apples I like to talk about apples. Introducing pomegranates into the discussion is digression. Having said that, there are many executives whose companies are now out of business. Like superstar athletes, we only hear about the ones who are left.

Since I use the Savage smokeless, I can wax poetically on the advantages of such use in a frontloader :)

bobbyo,

Apparently it varies greatly from state to state. In our city the mayor's recent op-ed explained many of our expenses are fixed and one of the largest is the police and fire pensions mandated by the state of Illinois and funded locally.

They can retire with 75% of their salary (many do so in their early 50s). We are now paying more individuals on pension than on the active list. The average cost is $100,000/person/year.

At the Federal level postal workers have an equally sweet deal. My former neighbor got 30 days sick leave (which he treated like his many vacation days) — enough to run a full time nursery business with his father who was a UAW official with an similar sweet deal.

Look at the auto industry for the best of the blue collar job benefits. Who is now bankrupt and still getting their pensions? GM and Chrysler. The Post Office and our police force here are on taxpayer support as well.

All of our local manufacturing companies dropped defined benefits in the early 1980s. Several of my friends who had already retired suffered major reductions as we exported jobs and businesses closed here.

Our teachers' benefits are state funded and while they are still receiving theirs, the situation is like Social Security — a basket of IOUs. The state is as empty as the national kitty.

As for education quality — our dropout rate is outrageous and would be even worse if the kind of standards which were in use fifty years ago were applied. Kids are being carried and graduated just to collect the headcount dollars from the state.

Many of my friends were teachers, but retired ASAP due to the total lack of support for discipline. My wife was a teachers' aide in the 1970s and could see the downhill slide coming. Class sizes, lack of parental interest and home support, gang influence, political correctness — all these tie a teacher's hands and diminish learning by those who could most benefit.

We long ago quit dealing with the real world and have been living a fairytale. It is finally catching up and we won't "live happily ever after."

"p.s Some other time I will point out the evils of using smokeless powder in a front loader:)."

I got a "bang" out of this comment :-) Good advice!

Perhaps along with the elephant analogy we need to consider a braoder time frame as well. I know from a relative who was a mailman in the 1940s they didn't use to have good benefits. However, as economic times improved they did get a much better deal. If you are old enough to remember the Penny Postcard you will realize the big changes for the PS.

CEO pay is grossly unfair and a prime reason, IMO, for most of our job losses. As the bottom line surged with payroll cuts they pocketed big gains from options and bonuses. But this doesn't justify the unrealistic pension levels.

A local CEO received an "Entrepreneur Award of the Year" several years ago. As one whose total income was always on the line in my own business, I can't tell you how much I resented this. He risked nothing of his own. He cut jobs, used stockholder funds, got the above mentioned gains and the company and employees suffered big time.

It was a lot like Obama getting the Nobel award.

If the real numbers are available at official government websites, isn't it still a lie if they tell it in a different way?

Maybe it just "depends on what is —IS"
-----------------------------

The Ugly Unemployment Numbers

The headlines said unemployment, as measured by the "establishment survey," was down by 190,000; and even though that was slightly worse than forecast, market bulls were cheered by the fact that the number was not as bad as last month's. It is an improvement that we are not falling as fast.

Well, maybe. What I did not see in many of the stories I read was that the number of unemployed actually soared by 558,000, to 15.7 million, as measured by the household survey. The establishment survey polls larger businesses; the household survey actually calls individual households.

Let's look at the real number in the establishment survey. If you don't seasonally adjust the number, the actual change in unemployment for October was 641,000, or about 450,000 more than the seasonally adjusted number. And the Bureau of Labor Statistics added 86,000 jobs that they simply guess were created through the so-called birth-death ratio. Interestingly, the birth-death ratio number is not seasonally adjusted, so it is just added to the unemployment number. http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm

The total (U-6) employment rate is at a record high of 17.5% (this includes those who are part-time for economic reasons). There are now over 10.5 million people who have lost their jobs since the beginning of the downturn.

My favorite slicer and dicer of data, Greg Weldon (www.weldononline.com), offers up an even more horrific number. As I have noted before, if you have not looked for work in the last four weeks, the BLS does not count you as unemployed.

Quoting Greg:

"Moreover, when we combine the monthly change in the number of Unemployed, with the number Not in the Labor Force, we might consider the result to be a proxy for the actual 'change' in the underlying labor market situation ... in which case, October's figure of 817,000 represents the fourth LARGEST yet, behind last month's (September's) second largest figure of 1,021,000 ... for a two-month combined figure of 1.838 million, in newly Unemployed, or no longer 'in' the Labor Force ...

"... the second LARGEST two-month total EVER posted, barely trailing the December-08/January-09 total 1.955 million.

"Bottom line ... basis this measure AND the 'Total Unemployment Rate,' we could conclude that not only is there NO 'improvement' in the labor market, but moreover, that it continues to DETERIORATE, intently."

There are plenty more implications in the data, but let's turn to the topic of the day.

I don't think that the problem of CEO pay is tied to the problem of public worker pay and benefits (which I guess is what you said). CEO's are few, and public workers are many, and public workers are directly supported by the taxpayer.

I completely agree that CEO pay is outrageous in the United States (I don't think they get these salaries in other nations). Ethically, CEO pay should be tied to the pay of lower level workers. The new administration has spoken more on this issue than did the last one. I think there is a bill to give shareholders a greater say in the matter.

http://tiny.cc/gqOuv

"The moves suggest that investors and executives will soon have to do without the flood of liquidity that propped up the economy earlier this year, as concerns about new asset bubbles start to mount."

Wall street bankers do not like this. They are likely to defend their "right" to virtually free money.

"No nothings" are not making the claims. I am speaking about New York, but it's true that I have formed an opinion that a lot of this is repeated in other areas of the nation. My school taxes are obscene. Our teachers are grossly overpaid by any objective standard. Benefits are far too rich. The school boards are in bed with the teachers unions and the taxpayer is being treated with contempt.

You say that your wife is now paying 9% for health benefits, presumably she was not paying to the same degree before. Now, could the increase have to do with the fact that the cost of health insurance paid by her employer increased by 9% last year, or that the cost went up 50% in the past 15 years, with little of it passed on to the employee, and with most of it paid by the taxpayer or employer? So the core problem is medical inflation, which has many causes, including extreme overuse by our citizens. Knowing that, are you in favor of health care reform, with the hope of reducing medical inflation, or are you against it? I'm not sure myself, but I know with certainty that something must be done to reduce costs. The last administration did not even propose a solution.

This is a core problem with many programs, social security, medicare, and premium based health insurance. With medical insurance, if the end users are insulated from the large premium increases year after year, they have no appreciation of program costs. Most public employees are in this category. It is a shock when government asks for a contribution. Who do you think has been bearing the yearly premium increases if not the end user? Answer: the taxpayer, or the employer.

When the end user is insulated from the true costs of a program, they either overuse the program, or they don't have a true appreciation of its problems. Health insurance is a perfect example. How many of us who have railed against health care reform understand that medical inflation is a runaway train that must be stopped. Medical care is just another unfunded program. We don't have the will to fix it, and the costs ultimately accrue to our children who will inherit the bill or an unsustainable system. Unless something changes, and I don't expect it, we will go down in history as "the selfish generation".

fjd10595,

I didn't mean to relate CEO (in private or stock listed companies)pay to public worker pay and benefits in any direct way. I was linking it to loss of jobs at the companies they managed and, as a bi-product, the employees benefits which were lost as the companies either fired them or the company evaporated and retirees were trashed.

Bills to give shareholders a greater say ignore the fact that in most publicly traded companies of any size, individual shareholders are far outweighed by institutions who go with whatever management wants.

I saw this happen even in moderate sized companies on whose annual reports I worked over a period of decades. Most were closely held by relatives of the founder and other local people in the 1960s. By the turn of the century nearly all were at least 60% owned by mutual funds, pension funds, etc.

The messages went from what was good for the business to what would boost the share price short term.

Now, if we follow the thread from the inception, we'll see where everyone has grabbed their little piece of the elephant and pronounced themselves correct.

Thanks, but does anyone have any ideas that do not involve selling the house?

If house prices crash, banks likely won't do well, but you never know. Buying puts on the banks may well work but is a bit of a Texas hedge.

Are the Canadians here thinking the will be immune? Thanks.

Grym - I don't disagree with your points about unemployment nor those about the government's abilities (or lack thereof), but you are I believe trying to correlate those conditions with the current Market.

My belief is that it is not logic, nor even personal feelings, that drives this Market, but rather it is GREED which simply correlates to the computer formulae that translate to "if we (Humongous Banks & Brokers) move the Market from this point to that point, our profits will be Humongous, and if we can also zig a little here and zag a little there especially contrary to all news, logic, and option volumes, then all bonus payments will be in the $zillions - zippityHooHaDay!!

My sympathies sincerely to all young and old who are and will be crushed in the process.
spot

spot,

Since I am seldom a trader, I am thinking in terms of the economy rather than the market. Certainly it is greed which drives the market beyond what is reasonable to expect as a return. Currently PEs are too high by "normal" standards, but IMO the entire tech period of the 1990s was irrational I participated very little. Obviously it can go on far too long.

I find it irrational to think a country can long maintain a policy of shifting the wealth to the top 1% as we have been doing for a couple of decades. We have now reached the point where the 70% can no longer support the GDP. This has worked in other countries mainly because so many have always had so little, but in a country accustomed to a far better lifestyle people will eventually rebel.

The middle class anger at job losses and such blatant cronyism may eventually bring about substantive change. At least I hope so.

Bill,

Sorry to hear about the loss of your long time friend.

I'm a bit older than you are and heard of the death of someone I had known for sixty years just this week. It is happening with a marked frequency and each one leaves a hole in our lives.

Yes, and keep in mind that it is much worse than that. Taxes don't come close to funding these programs. The accumulated debt gets bigger and bigger. So it is our children who will ultimately pay for programs enjoyed by those of us living today. It is a debt burden that will destroy them. What a shame. A nation that invents program after program while funding a tiny portion of each with tax revenues. The bill is passed to future generations. It is a disgrace of untold proportion.

"At the same time they have given free licenses and tackle to others free of charge (I should more accurately say paid for it with the taxes of the rest of us.)"

"Goldman's Direct Market Access program accounts for over a whopping 1 billion shares daily, as disclosed to clients by Goldman itself. When one considers that the NYSE's trading volume has recently been in the 1-1.5 billion shares per day range..."

http://tiny.cc/LGLif

Its Goldman's market. Speculating about whether the market is manipulated is totally futile because one entity is most of the market.

It's always hard when it is family or friend, but I've heard you quote Ecclesiastes many times:

“To everything there is a season, and a time to every purpose under heaven”.

To quote an old Negro spiritual:
"All my trials, Lord, soon be over ... "

Being about the same age as you, I have also lost family and friends. I've found that it helps at least for me, at some point, to go for a walk, pick a flower, place it on a stone or wall where I will remember where it was, and say goodbye.
spot

I am theorizing that would mean the money, one way or another has to come out of existing markets, and if so, a good percentage of that would come out of equities, if indeed equities are being propped up by banks playing cheap tarp money...

Recently, I have been called Un-American on a blog, naming another large blogger (intials TK) as also being un-America

As far as I can digest their argument, they take this view because "I think the market is too high."

Has anyone read the Constitution? Bill of rights? Quotes of our Founding Fathers?
Many of these are premiscient in terms of events that are currently unfolding.

I can hardly imagine anyone besides myself being a bigger supporter of America...I sure there are those have sacrificed dearly who deserve a higher level of "Being American", than just those like me who are in ideological respect for the concepts of "America".

I have not served our country in the the military, although I proud to have worked for over two decades with those in the military, and for the most part they are really excellent people, who have lately been put at severe risk and strain and stress. My Father and one of my Brothers served in the Armed Forces.

The market being this high is not a sign a strength, it is a sign of weakness, of corruption of the system. Of distribution from strong hands to weak hands. Of social inequity.

GO AMERICA --- and think of "Point of Recognition" ---to change for the better.

Complacency and complaints without action will end up with a transparent parchment of a Constitution.

Please visit my blog which is heavy on rants and charts.

http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/11/tim-great-...

Dave in Dever @ Golden Truth opined:

"Anglogold Ashanti announced yesterday (11/2) that it may accelerate the closing of its hedgebook. The Company announced that the hedge was down to 4.3 million ounces. The original timetable for closing the hedge was 2014, a date the Company set just recently in July. Since that time, the price of gold has gone up around $160/oz. This means that AU has dropped another $688 million (roughly) on its gold hedge. To put the size AU's hedge in perspective, 4.3 million ounces translates into about 122 tons. More than half the amount India purchased from the IMF. Unless the IMF agrees to sell AU some of the remaining 203 tons that it is selling, AU has a big problem. It should be clear to everyone that AU faces a huge challenge to buy back its gold hedge without significantly driving up the price of gold and incurring huge financial damage."

Surely, gold is going over $1,100/oz. no matter what Roubini thinks or says. His 10 minutes of fame should have expired by now. Wonder what's the current strategy behind the massive Comex (paper) short on gold held by JPM now that the biggest miners (AU and ABX) and central banks (India and now perhaps China in a bidding war with India over the remaining IMF hoard for sale) are deleveraging/buying triggering a breakout rally in gold?

JPM, Comex, and the Treasury can't bully the price of gold down with foreign central banks entering the ring.

I am so sorry, Bill. Remember your friend at his best, remember his laughter and his smile... remember his voice... and remember, love lives on forever.... Robert.

I didn't catch the first part of the discussion, but last year Barrick was short 9.5 million oz. Some of that has probably been covered now that they announced they were going to unwind it, but I would guess they also have a lot to buy.

Bill,

Sorry for your loss of such a good friend. I have yet to experience that, and hope it is delayed as long as possible, but know I will have to face it someday. When the time comes, I hope I can handle it with as much caring and dignity as you, and taking the time to share remembering the good times.

I know from reading that you are very driven, but for a guy that's retired, maybe you should try not to push quite as hard, and maybe take a bit more time out to enjoy the things you otherwise might not get to, While you can.

My Dad passed away a few years back, and literally within 6 months of his retirement, after working all his life for it, he ended up 1/2 paralyzed in a wheelchair, for an agonizing 15 years of not really being able to enjoy what he'd worked so hard to be able to afford.

Dear Bill,
I'm so sorry for your loss. I didn't know Peter, but from what you've said about him, I'm sure he is safe in the hands of our Creator. I hope you find comfort in that thought.

As always, thank you for what you are doing.
Dan

Bill I hope you don't mind. I found this in the archives when doing a search of your friend. I believe the Community will understand your affection for Peter and his analysis of your/our community really illustrates his analytical abilities. I offer my sincerest condolences.
Bob
http://www.billcara.com/archives/2007/07/bill_cara...
P.S.He sounds like my kind of doctor!

I just read an excellent discussion by John Mauldin about the possible future paths for the US economy (unfortunately, all of them are very unpleasant). They are discussed in the latest newsletter on the page http://tinyurl.com/yaa76rn,
which basically gives a summary of the individual paths he was discussing since the beginning of October.

Here is an interesting excerpt from John Mauldin about shorting bonds (which many traders on this blog are periodically attempting to do):

"[The Japanese] are running massive fiscal deficits and have done so for almost 20 years. Government debt-to-GDP is now up to 178% and projected to rise to over 200% within a few years." Since US is currently on the same paths, many have concluded that US Treasury rates must rise and hence shorting bonds is an obvious investment decision. Well, John Mauldin then notes: "The trading floors of the world are littered with the bodies of traders who have shorted Japanese government debt in the belief that it simply must implode. While I believe that it eventually will, if they stay on the path they are on, Japan is a very clear demonstration that things that don't make sense can go on longer than we think." I think this should be a warning for those who try to allocate too much capital long-term to TBT (or to TLT short). David Rosenberg, a very respected independent economist (not a talking head), noted many times that Treasury yields tend to bottom MANY years after a credit bubble bursts, and this time, he believes, the yields are still years away from bottoming.

Don't let the pundit-speak about "lagging indicator" or the market's move Friday fool you, the job market is crucial to the stock market right now.

In fact, the two have only been this closely linked three times before in the last decade, according to statistical analysis by Brian Kelly, Kanundrum Capital Management founder.

When you compare the change in monthly non-farm payrolls to the the monthly close of the S&P 500, the correlation has been an almost perfect one-to-one correlation since March of last year, according to Kelly, one of the best number junkies we have appear on Fast Money. (See the chart below for the best representation of this relationship.)

So the reason why the market has gone up since March even as the unemployment rate has climbed over 10 percent is because the pace of job losses have slowed since then. Which brings us very close to this point: Fewer job losses per month are no longer good enough to lift stocks higher.

For this rally to continue, jobs are going to have to start being created...and fast. Kelly believes job growth should be restored in the first quarter of 2010 if the trend shown above continues down a similar path. He's been generally cautious on the market lately though as he's awaiting a sign that trend will in fact continue.

Smart investors such as Richard Bernstein and Dennis Gartman watch the weekly jobless claims for an even more immediate status report on the job market. The problem is that from week to week that data can vary so you have to look at the trend there as well.

Looking at the correlation of that data to the stock market, these folks agree with Kelly that the belief some have about a magic "jobless recovery" that lifts stocks is just hooey.

Seabreeze Partners' Doug Kass, who nailed the March bottom in the S&P 500, believes that the jobs we are seeing lost may be gone for a long time and while the trend lately has been fewer job losses, that may soon reverse.

"We face a structural rise in unemployment that the markets have not yet accepted," wrote Kass, in his note today. This is not leading him to expect a return to the March lows, but he's taking profits and going short now in anticipation of a sizeable pullback.

The trading lesson here comes best from George Thorogood, if the landlady (the stock market) soon finds out this country "can't find no job", don't keep buying stocks, buy "one bourbon, one scotch and one beer."

By: John Melloy
Senior Producer, Fast Money

I believe this is more like 29 because of the massive debt overhang, and the subsequent pay down and default that must happen in order to get the debt down to levels serviceable with our current income. That is also why this will be nothing like 2003 either. The issue is simple: an overload of debt and its subsequent default drives all.

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2009/11/sunday-morning-...

the 'generic' OEX stock is up, at trendline support, with stochastics rolling over. Oscillators naturally have less applicability during trends, but often stochastics will 'flutter' during sustained uptrends...staying above 60...but to be fair, even many of the stocks that broke trendlines have returned to the underside of the trendline.

regards to the community

The House voted in the newest Great American Ponzi Scheme...

Having lost my wife who was my best friend to breast cancer 20 months ago, I have come learn that we don't need to say "goodbye" at all ..but rather a hopeful and heartfelt "seeya later".

Maybe it is time to slow down until one finds that perfect balance in life. Being the same age as you Bill, finding balance has worked for me.

another bill in DC.

Bill
You have experienced the lost of two trusted friends, your strength
amazes me, even in loss you are teaching..

Dave M - thanks for the heads up, I've never seen this problem on any of the Canadian stocks I've tried over the years and lots with tickers containing the " - ".

In doing a little research I find that the RSI tool is picking the correct ticker symbol, ie clicking on the ticker does bring up the Magna chart MG-A.TO, although the last price is not correct, as you say it is actually Mega Uranium MGA.TO

The problem is actually with Yahoo finance which is the historical database Korvus uses to calc the RSI values. If you check the Yahoo historical prices for Magna they are actually the prices for Mega, thus the reason the RSI tool spits out the wrong values, "garbage in garbage out". I assume this is due to the way Yahoo has changed some of the ticker symbol coding over the years, particularly with the Canadian symbols which contain " - " "." " / ".

I have sent Yahoo a problem report on this specific ticker, it should be fixed in a few days, do you have any others you know of that are problems??

Korvus, is there a way that the RSI tool could include an error check, say compare the current price from the historical data to the last EOD market quote, if different by X% flag an error ??

I will also add a warning note to the RSI Tool help file so users will be on the lookout for this type of error. As always its good to cross check whatever data you use in your decision making.

Edit: RSI Tool help file updated.
http://caracommunity.com/content/rsi-tool

I agree that its the overload of debt, the fear that it cannot be repaid, and the likely inability to service it as it goes still higher or if rates were ever to rise that will cause the economy to remain depressed until the debt is cleared or the debt inflated or grown out of.

We are likely talking about roughly 20-30 years here, until us baby boomers have mostly died off, I think. As I see it, we are going into a similar period to the one Japan has been in for the last 20 or so years.

The real lesson here is that as individuals, some of us might have been frugal and prudent, and saved, but our nation has borrowed and wasted more than we can even conceive of, and the only graceful exit the central bankers or government will see is to discreetly inflate the debt away, by cheating the savers on rates, cheating those who paid in advance and TIP owners on COLA clauses, and cheating those left, by making us pay tax on what is really the debasement of the currency, not income. I believe this is all in the name of "fairness", LOL. I think not. Its more like in the name of "desperation", and lack of willingness to face the real problems honestly and objectively, and actually *DO* anything to really resolve them longer term.

Yesterday, and the late nite before, I posted a link to the Wall Street Journal for a write-up on the Healthcare Bill. Here is a clip out of a lengthy section dealing with Medicare changes. First, a reminder: One must be “old” to receive Medicare and a preponderance of the “old” have worked hard for low income all their lives, but they still had to pay a significant portion of their working income for what they thought would be Medicare benefits in old age. Here’s the clip -[ bracketed comments are mine]:

“• Secs. 1158-1160 (pp. 499-520) initiates programs to reduce payments for [Medicare] patient care to what it costs in the lowest cost regions of the country [Indian Reservations??]. This will reduce payments for care (and by implication the standard of care) for hospital patients in higher cost areas such as New York and Florida [and all those areas that are not so “higher cost”].

If you haven’t read that original post, and you are young, old, employer, unemployed but hopeful, working for a struggling employer, etc - go read that post and forget the Gov’s obfuscation.
http://tinyurl.com/ycsa2gf
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Spot,
I believe the concern expressed in your post regarding the following sections is nothing less than health care industry propaganda.
“• Secs. 1158-1160 (pp. 499-520) initiates programs to reduce payments for [Medicare] patient care to what it costs in the lowest cost regions of the country [Indian Reservations??]. This will reduce payments for care (and by implication the standard of care) for hospital patients in higher cost areas such as New York and Florida [and all those areas that are not so “higher cost”]."
My understanding is that these provisions encourage the expansion of the Mayo model which has been successful in reducing the costs associated with unnecessary tests and procedures while providing excellent medical care. This is accomplished because the model uses salaried doctors screened by Mayo for competency rather than doctor entrepreneurs who derive income from such tests and procedures. There is a lot of abuse in the health care industry. Some of it rises to the level of fraud. Nothing is to be gained by fighting to maintain the status quo. The status quo is terrible.

lessmore - First, I suggest that you look into the history of positive improvements that have ever been legislated into existence by Congress, then in terms of your findings, evaluate the predicament of an innocent who is about to be tossed by tribal leaders to the wolves: The status quo is not good, certainly, but it is better than what the wolves offer.
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Go to link and click on the video from "Onion News" on the real reason for unemployment (<-- what they satirize, not my personal views) for a little dark humor.
http://www.financialarmageddon.com/2009/10/the-rea...
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January 08' thru Feburary 09' was the slaughter... March 09' till now was the feast... Now comes the hard part..The next year(s) will be what Bill has been training everyone for.. The bets are fixed, so we have to figure out what the odds are .. A Trader that can survive and prosper from here on out, should never again question his/her ability. Be proud of your acomplishments and pass your knowledge to those you can trust and who are willing to work hard and learn/

Bill, excellent week in review as usual. I will study it in more detail after I finish raking the leaves, something you no longer have to do, enjoy the beach.

Note the link in your wrap-up to the Peter Simmons article seems to have been truncated, here is the correct one, thanks to Bobbyo for finding it in your Cara archives.

http://www.billcara.com/archives/2007/07/bill_cara...

campeagle,

Thanks for the link and info. Perhaps I am remembering a total he may have had counting sick leave and vacation together. (This was over forty years ago.) We were the same age and I worked at an aviation manufacturing plant with what was at that time considered to provide among the best benefits in town.

I had one week paid vacation and 7 days of sick (genuine) leave and insured my whole family for only $7/month. Dollars were bigger back then.

I did work at the nursery part time for him and his father who did manage to run the business with only the two of them and my help on weekends and during my vacation days.

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