Despite a strongly bullish year in which the S&P 500 lifted +23.5% from 903.25 to 1115.10, and where the Bullish index stands at approximately 80%, traders are unhappy, not so much with prices but with the institutions that are supposed to be the bedrock of capitalism.
Looking back at 2009, I think the big story in capital markets is the public’s loss of respect for the US Treasury, the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Federal Reserve Bank, Humungous Bank & Broker (HB&B), and the thread that weaves through them all, Goldman Sachs (GS).
Does a free capital market even exist today or is it just a sham run by banksters and their bed-mates in Washington? Well, mainstream media (MSM), often criticized by independent bloggers, has spoken in the form of the McClatchy Reports on Goldman Sachs.
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/goldman/
A five-month McClatchy investigation reveals how Wall Street colossus Goldman Sachs peddled billions of dollars in shaky securities tied to subprime mortgages on unsuspecting pension funds, insurance companies and other investors when it concluded that the housing bubble would burst.
Before you read these detailed scathing reports, have a look at the scant four sentence response from Goldman Sachs, which begs the question, “Where is the lawsuit?”
The response: Letter to the editor from Goldman Sachs' spokesman
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/100/story/78651.html
The Report, in four parts:
Part One: High-yield promises, secret contrary bets
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/100/story/77791.html
Part Two: Take borrowers to court, then take their homes
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/100/story/77841.html
Part Three: Big losses, little recourse for overseas investors
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/100/story/77844.html
Part Four: Blue-chip prestige flirts with subprime disaster
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/100/story/77852.html
A blogger’s criticism of the McClatchy reporting:
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/12/more-on-goldman-cdos-mcclatchy-we...
While writing Lessons From the Trader Wizard in July 2007, when the S&P 500 was over 1500, I blogged that the risks in the market were higher than I had seen in my 30 plus years experience, and I pointed to what I believed was the main cause, which was the behavior of an insidious network of people connected to Goldman Sachs. Everything that Goldman Sachs wanted, they got, and the public was not being told why. I encapsulated my concerns in the term “Paulson’s Folly” – referring of course to the Goldman Sachs Chairman and CEO Henry Paulson who had been parachuted into the White House as Secretary of the Treasury – concluding that “books will be written”. Less than two years later, the S&P 500 hit a low of 666.79 and governments around the world were referring to financial Armageddon, the complete and total collapse of the global financial system.
McClatchy is not the only vocal critic of Goldman Sachs and Humungous Bank & Broker (HB&B), but it is to my knowledge the first major investigation done by a newspaper empire. Another critic we heard from this year was Matt Taibbi, writing for Rolling Stone.
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/26793903/the_big_takeover/print
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/28816321/inside_the_great_ame...
Some of you don’t want to hear this anymore, calling it Old News. But, it’s not; the same network of culprits is in control in Washington and New York. Until there is meaningful change that the American people voted for, you need to express your contempt. If not, the financial tragedy of the past couple years will be repeated.
This American president was given the mandate for change he asked for. Now, headed into his second year, he ought to start by ridding Treasury and the Fed of Geithner and Bernanke, and asking Congress for a return of Glass-Steagall Act provisions that prohibit a bank holding company from owning other financial companies like broker-dealers and insurance companies.
“Hope” was the big word for 2009. We now hope that “Change” is it for 2010.
Let 2010 be a happier year for all of us.
Comments
GSE OBLIGATIONS
ALOHA!!
And the US BANK BAILOUTS continue ... Now Congress need not vote or ask permission from WE THE PEOPLE in order to hand huge bailouts to insolvent banks.
As I introduced everyone here and at GATA to the "new" line item on the US TREASURY DAILY STATEMENT, entitled "GSE OBLIGATIONS/HFA INITIATIVE" on Dec 28th I see on Dec 30th that new line item, only two days old, has grown another $8.25BIL on Dec 30th, Wednesday. Now the two day total is $15.8BIL USD.
Note the word "OBLIGATIONS" right after GSE ...
In two days that line item has exceeded three months worth of outlays for each of the following US Treasury line items.
- Energy Dept
- Federal Employee Insurance Payments
- Federal Highway Admin
- Food Stamps
- GSA
- Justice Dept
- Labor Dept
- NASA
- Temp Assistance for Needy
- Transport Security
- Veterans Affairs
- Deposit Insurance Fund
- Export/Import Bank
- FAA
- Federal Railroad Admin
- Federal Transit Admin
- Minerals Management Service
- National Highway Traffic Safety
- SBA
- TARP
TREASURY GONE WILD!
Who said Obama would not bring CHANGE?
BIGGER BAILOUTS???
YES WE CAN ...
Looks like unions can veto the Executive Branch of State Govt.
in California to keep their jobs. This has very significant implications for tax payers if it become precedence for other states with unionized "public" servants.
From Bill's earlier post of the Mcclatchy site.....It was great to read all the articles!!
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/politics/story/81555.html
Chicago PMI adjustment
http://tinyurl.com/872m8h
"...Dow Jones reports that the Chicago Institute for Supply Management revised down the Chicago PMI to 58.7 on Thursday from the announced reading of 60.0 on Wednesday. The most significant change was to the employment index that now shows contraction at 47.6 compared to the announced 51.2.
And the WSJ reports that the Treasury announced they made their final TARP investment in a bank: Treasury Ends TARP Bank Investments (ht jb)..."
Our Shared Universe
I hope you have savored the slower pace of a few days with important people in your life. A shared cup of cheer, a quiet moment, time to look at the sky. We are so blessed to be here, alive, with our wits and our gifts and every year we start out freshly motivated to make this our year.
I hope you will take a moment to watch this absolutely INSPIRING You Tube titled The Known Universe by the American Museum of Natural History.
Click this link and the right arrow to see it in full screen. Amazing.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=17jymDn0W6U
A wealthier India, China good for world's innovators
Printed from
A wealthier India, China good for world's innovators
2 Jan 2010, 0113 hrs IST, New York Times
It may not feel that way right now, but the past 10 years may go down in world history as a big success. That idea may be hard to accept in the
US. After all, it was the decade of 9/11, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the financial crisis, all dramatic and painful events. But in economic terms, at least, the decade was a remarkably good one for many people around the globe.
The raging economic growth rates of China and India are well known, though their rise is part of a broader trend in the economic development of poorer countries. Ideals of prosperity, freedom and the rule of law have probably never been more resonant globally than they’ve been over the past 10 years, even if practice often falls short. And for all of the anti-capitalistic rhetoric that has emerged from the financial crisis, national leaders around the world are embracing the commercialisation of their economies.
Putting aside the US, which ranks third, the four most populous countries are China, India, Indonesia and Brazil, accounting for more than 40% of the world’s people. And all four have made great strides. Indonesia had solid economic growth during the entire decade, mostly in the 5 to 6% annual range. That came after its very turbulent 1990s, marked by a disastrous financial crisis and plummeting standards of living.
Brazil also had a consistently good decade, with growth at times exceeding 5% a year. There is lots of talk that the country has finally turned the corner, and, within its borders, there is major worry that its currency is too strong — a problem that many other countries would envy.
Elsewhere in South America, Colombia and Peru have made enormous progress and Chile is on the verge of becoming a “developed” country; it will soon be joining the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.
To be sure, in Africa, there is still enormous misery. Nonetheless, overall standards of living rose in a wide variety of countries there, with economic growth for the continent as a whole at more than 5% in most years. Many basic essentials, like water, sanitation, electricity and especially telephones, are more commonly available.
One lesson from all of this is that steady economic growth is an underreported news story — and to our own detriment. As human beings, we are prone to focus on very dramatic, visible events, such as confrontations with political enemies or the personal qualities of leaders, whether good or bad. We turn information about politics and economics into stories of good guys versus bad guys and identify progress with the triumph of the good guys. In the process, it’s easy to neglect the underlying forces that improve life in small, hard-to-observe ways, culminating in important changes.
In a given year, an extra percentage point of economic growth may not seem to matter much. But, over time, the difference between annual growth of 1% and 2% determines whether you can double your standard of living every 35 years or every 70 years. At 5% annual economic growth, living standards double about every 14 years.
Nonetheless, despite the positive news in much of the world, it’s questionable whether the decade as a whole has been good for Americans, economically speaking. Median wages have not risen much, if at all, and the costs of the financial crisis and irresponsible fiscal policies have become increasingly obvious. Those facts support a pessimistic interpretation.
Still, most economic models suggest that the fundamental source of growth is new ideas, which enable us to produce more from a given set of resources. To the extent that the rest of the world becomes wealthier, there’s more innovation, as my colleague and co-blogger Alex Tabarrok, professor of economics at George Mason University, argued recently. China, for instance, is moving toward the research frontier in areas such as solar power, scientific instruments, engineering and nanoscience, all of which can benefit the US. Unlike the situation of just a few decades ago, a genius born in Mumbai now stands a good chance of becoming a notable scientist, whether at home or abroad.
It might be pleasant to boast that America is — or should be — a world leader in every area, but the practical reality is that if some other country solves the problem of green energy, so much the better for us.
The subtler point is that a wealthier China, India, Brazil and Indonesia will lead to more customers for new innovations, thereby producing greater rewards for successful entrepreneurs, no matter where they live. There are so many improvements in cell phones these days because there are so many cell phone customers in so many countries.
To put it bluntly, if the US takes one step back and the rest of the world takes two steps forward, even in purely selfish terms we should consider accepting the trade-off, if only for the longer run. Most of us gain from the wealth and creativity of other countries, even if we can’t always feel like the top dog.
When asked what he thought of the French Revolution, Zhou Enlai, the premier of China from 1949 until his death in 1976, reportedly replied, “It is too soon to tell.”
That is also a fair response to the past 10 years, and it will be for some time to come. The point remains that if we look beneath the surface just a bit, the picture is a good deal rosier than we might otherwise think.
Can someone help to verify or discredit some info?
Short and sweet is that someone is wrong. Either mistaken, deceptive or just plain wrong. Either this individual, or the US Gov't... My hope would be that it is the individual.
The US DoL might be understating the Unemployment numbers by as much as 32%...
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/4...
Kaimu, you seem very good at understanding the numbers. Not just the headline numbers, but also the Treasuries accounting ones...
Paulson's Folly America's Demise
Bill,
Thank you for publishing the links to the articles on Goldman Sachs role in the subprime disaster and associated fallout. As you know I've been hearing stories of folks like the Beckers, so it's great to watch that clip knowing at least one couple triumphed against the worst opponent imaginable. I just posted that link on a real estate industry site as encouragement.
It is apparent when I write my congress persons (who do respond) that some of them are just not onto the shennanigans of these devious old guard HB&B. We must keep protesting, as you so eloquently do. Keep it up!
Re: GSE OBLIGATIONS
Kaimu, question: Where exactly is the Fed headquartered? I wonder, is it like all those corporations registered in Delaware? Is it even in the United States.
Next: Remember how I thought HB&B, as nefarious as they may be might be a scapegoat for the real culprits of this debacle?
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/origins-american-...
Re: GSE OBLIGATIONS
Interesting Nemo - food for thought.
"This, then, seems likely to be the fairest of States, being an
embroidered robe which is spangled with every sort of flower. And just
as women and children think a variety of colours to be of all things
most charming, so there are many men to whom this State, which is
spangled with the manners and characters of mankind, will appear to be
the fairest of States." Plato on democracy
I was placed into a corner last Christmas by my Uncle who suggested that Plato was the first to advocate popular democracy. I immediately said "no" (cause I'm like that) but fair enough, I had not read the text. Nor do I want to, because its a humdinger of a read, but you can go here:
http://www.gutenberg.org/files/150/150.txt
do a page search (ctrl F) for "democracy" and then read the principal text in Republic concerning this subject. Those patient enough to take time to understand Plato will discern the irony in the text quoted above.
For those who want the abbreviated response, Plato places democracy between oligarchy and tyranny, with little moral differentiation between the three and more than a little conflation in these political organisations. Perhaps we begin to understand as serious discussion and blogging of this crisis unfolds.
Re: GSE OBLIGATIONS
ALOHA !!
Nemo ... The US FED in a "physical sense" is headquartered in America, but its influence(tentacles) is Worldwide. There are twelve FED "districts" across America but then if you add the rest of the World central banks then it is 13! All central banks act in concert and I am sure their push for ONE global central bank is high on their agenda. Now who truly controls these central banks depends on which elite families dominate which region. The power to centralize monetary control will eventually end at the BIS, which is touted as the "central bank of all central banks"!
When you say this: "Remember how I thought HB&B, as nefarious as they may be might be a scapegoat for the real culprits of this debacle?" you miss the point that HB&B "is" the US FED. The US FED is a private cartel of private banks. They form a MONOPOLY that is immune from prosecution.
BLANCHARD COIN
Every central bank just like the US FED has its "agents". That was publicly announced and recorded in New Orleans Superior Court documents that JP MORGAN is an "Agent" for the US FED via the Blanchard Coin lawsuit filed against Barrick Gold and JP MORGAN. Now Barrick Gold was exempt from prosecution as well as JP MORGAN because Barrick Gold was partnered with JP MORGAN in their part to suppress gold prices and profit off not real "gold mining" but "mining the gold futures market at the COMEX"! It was shown in an article published that came from an interview with the CEO of Blanchard Coin that the "plot" extended down to shell companies and real estate companies, like TRIZAC HAHN. Hummm, now lets see who at Barrick Gold is tied to real estate? Why in the heck would you want to spend huge amounts of capital and risk developing and building a gold mine when you can make more profits manipulating gold prices and be "guaranteed" never to lose money or even end up in jail for your crimes?
This brings us full circle to why the US Treasury is so important. They may as well label the new line item GSE OBLIGATIONS/HFA INITIATIVE as TARP 2! Whats to stop FNM and FRE from buying up all the toxic loans sitting at BAC and JPM now? These are implicit yet covert "guarantees" for US banks to assume greater risks and not be burdened with the prospect of "default", since the US Taxpayer and the US Treasury are being used by the US FED and its "agents", like GS and JPM, as a toxic dumping ground for losses. In essence the US TREASURY is the new EPA SUPER FUND!
WHAT FREE MARKETS?
The true power of CAPITALISM is to allow "failure". So as long as we allow the US Treasury to bailout failure we have no free markets and capitalism in America is but a joke. If true capitalism existed in America then GS, JPM, BAC and all other banks along with GM, AIG and ABX would have $0 share values and be defunct and the DOW would be limping along at 800. The US Treasury is PRICE FIXING every thing from BAC share prices to unemployment rates. Thanks to that fact Americans must resign themselves to a permanent state of Crony Socialism where we all become slaves to the US Treasury and the whims of Congress. The US Treasury says which companies survive and which ones don't. This is "Anti-Darwinism" and "Anti-Capitalist". America is a country of losers because we vote to subsidize losers. I am opposed to any form of subsidies, whether it is for farmers, GS or GM or Defense.
Over at the Cunning Realist I watched as the "blogmaster" (TCR) there was an ardent OBAMA supporter prior to the election, but as time passes he has completely flipped and his latest article entitled, "IT SAT THERE FOR FIVE WEEKS" he harshly criticizes OBAMA and his Presidency and a system that constantly rewards failures like the USSR did. Then if you read the "comments" there you would see that the DEMS are now REPS. He is even comparing the USA to the USSR now, something I used to get a regular chiding for when I would type "USSA" years ago. Over at ZERO HEDGE the same conclusion is being broadcast. If voters in America would follow MISES instead of OPRAH we could have had our country back years ago and banks like GS and JPM would not exist today, neither would companies like AIG and GM. I have no doubts that if you stood at the polling locations across America and did an informal "poll" and asked each voter if they know MISES or OPRAH the answers would be 99.9% know OPRAH but only 0.1% know MISES. That in itself is a "guarantee" there is no CHANGE in America's future government. This is why I say the only way to CHANGE America and Americans is for America to collapse. What results after a collapse depends on what political force fills the "void". This is why it is important to expose friends and relatives to the ideas of blogs like Bill Cara and Zero Hedge and the likes. America is fortunate in that we have been under the "influence" of the US CONSTITUTION for a couple hundred years, whereas countries like the former USSR and China and South American and African Oligarchs have not. Still the risk remains as to a National Socialism filling the void. Yes, it is very important to have all those you come in contact know less OPRAH and more MISES.
RUSH LIMBAUGH is a false prophet as he continues the media farce that is the TWO PARTY POLITICAL MONOPOLY! He does espouse some basic MISES principles but then he knows who butters his toast! His power base is still the Republican party. To me he is a sell out for that very reason ... Right now in America there is no mainstream media on TV or radio that tells the whole truth ... that speaks to the principles of MISES or the other Austrian Economists like Rothbard and Hayek. Truly RON PAUL is the only figure in the US CONGRESS who knows MISES inside and out. The rest are either impostors or complete con men. As the tide turns anti-government, and it will, more Congressmen will drape themselves in the RON PAUL image, but in truth will not have any understanding of MISES or that of our Founding Fathers and a Republic. You can see that happening right now, even on the DEM side. The real "game" for any career politician is to get re-elected and just about anything goes in that pursuit.
Re: GSE OBLIGATIONS
ALOHA !!
Les - Yes, laws and how they are enforced is the basic difference between a Democracy and a Republic. As we are all seeing now contracts and laws in America are not worth the paper they are written on under a Democracy. If they were then Geithner would be in jail for tax evasion instead of the US Treasury Sec. Every career politician in DC would also be in jail for treason as none of them have fulfilled their Oath Of Office to uphold the US Constitution, so it comes down to enforcement.
Who is ultimately responsible for law enforcement in the USA? WHO TRULY? If you answer the police ... NO! If you say entities like the SEC ... NO! If you say the courts ... NO! Ultimately it is the US voters. It is our responsibility to vote into power only those who truly exhibit a desire to uphold the US CONSTITUTION and enforce laws. The power to vote has been diluted and the voters powers of due diligence are practically non-existent, otherwise this constant two party mentality would have died decades ago.
We do not need Constitutional amendments for terms or every other Congressional abuse we just need "smarter and more diligent" voters. The FREE LUNCH has run its course, as I see youth in America will eventually rebel against supporting past failures and entitlements they never voted for, so perhaps that will force much more due diligence at the voting booth and less LIMBAUGHS and OPRAHS.
Hoping for Change in 2010
Hoping for genuine or substantial change to come from Obama is futile.
This guy knows what to say (whatever people want to hear). Check out his West Point speech — he giveth (Afghanistan surge) while he taketh away (date for withdrawal)— something for all ears.
He will do what is most advantageous to him — association with various people as long as to his advantage, then it's "good-bye and "We hardly knew each other."
If we are to have any real change we need to limit the power of the Congressional Pros.
The Military/Industrial Complex is a subset of the Congressional/Financial Collusion.
Re: Can someone help to verify or discredit some info?
quentusrex,
For a picture of how distorted the "Official" numbers always are go to the US Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor websites and see just how they are tallied.
For a different picture than the MSM continues to parrot =go to Shadow Stats website.
I talk to real people who have lost their job and have given up expecting anything close to what they used to have. Our local "official number" is now at over 17% and we are now reading about how neighboring towns are "siphoning off our retail business" and our "solution" is to promote more tourism.
We already had our garage sale and now want to get people to come an visit a manufacturing ghost town.
Re: GSE OBLIGATIONS
One reader of the following blog has aired the thought that Fannie and Freddie are effectively shell corporations in an effort to control interest rates:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/180551-the-fed-s-m...
Are Fannie and Freddie going to be used for fraudulent Fed control of sales in the bond market in 2010 onwards? Given the reported 11 fold increase in US debt to be sold in 2010...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/brace-impact-2010...
...has the fed surreptitiously played its hand by backstopping Fannie and Freddie with unlimited taxpayer dollars so it can bask in its own success as it calls an "end to QE?" even as Fannie and Freddie write off squillions.
Dalt suggests that as the 800lb gorilla in the mortgage back securities market, Fannie and Freddie may take over the Fed's role in controlling interest rates, while at the same time attempting to preserve the image of "mission accomplished" in the economy.
Anyone found a good online outlet for a "Maobama" t-shirt?
p.s. present "success" with loan mortgage mods appear to press the need to come up with something "better". From the NYT:
"“I don’t think there’s any way for Treasury to tweak their plan, or to cajole, pressure or entice servicers to do more to address the crisis,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com. “For some folks, it is doing more harm than good, because ultimately, at the end of the day, they are going back into the foreclosure morass.” A paper by researchers at the Amherst Securities Group suggests that being underwater “is a far more important predictor of defaults than unemployment.”"
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/02/business/economy...
Satruday Morning Coffee: A Man's Gotta Eat
We all agree that it's a dirty game, rigged against the individual, and unlikely to get any better. Worse still, it systematically underestimates inflation. If one looks at what people use: the cost of health care, tuition, food, and energy, it is impossible to get anything close to the BS we are fed...based on the BLS hedonics, substitution, and weighting methodologies.
But here we are, choosing to play the loser's game. Macro themes? A man's gotta eat.
http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2010/01/saturday-mornin...
Re: Satruday Morning Coffee: A Man's Gotta Eat
Dear Ron
Welcome back, I missed your input.
Ron
Re: Satruday Morning Coffee: A Man's Gotta Eat
COW is livestock only. (?)
Re: GSE OBLIGATIONS
Ron Paul's white paper on MISES
http://mises.org/books/paulmises.pdf
Re: GSE OBLIGATIONS
Ron Paul's white paper on MISES
http://mises.org/books/paulmises.pdf
Re: GSE OBLIGATIONS
kaimu, Bill, et al. -
Adam Smith's Invisible Hand will always dismantle socialist concentrations of raw power (i.e., U.S. federal gov't) to renew natural balance. Have faith in the HAND. Consider that the States are in dire financial straits. How do the States raise more revenue? They can't print funny money like our Treasury. More state income/property taxes? Public pension defaults? Allow infrastruture to crumble. All of the above?! None of this is going to be a formula for RE-ELECTION of constituents on any level. The time is fast approaching for the States to reassert power over our rogue federal gov't. How, you ask ...
A simple constitutional amendment to ban Lobbies and prosecute Congressional abusers from Capitol Hill or, say, to simply abolishing the Fed Reserve would go a long way to reforming our federal representation. Consider: Proposed constitutional amendments do not require the 2/3 vote of the U.S. Congress. There is a provision in the U.S. Constitution for petition from 2/3rds of the States and ratification by 3/4ths of the States via 'conventions' NOT by vote of federal, or, I think, to some extent even state legislatures. Only one of our 27 Amendments passed through this state ratification process. So it's there and can be used when the People are ready. "Real change" will be through a popular groundswell of sentiment to alter federal elitism/corporatism once the federal gov't soundly fails its peeps and that's about to start on the State level in a big way starting with California and my state, Michigan. Detroit lay in ruins. Our framers gave us some options. The two party system will be altered because the U.S. Constitution allows for dismantling of elites' control and THE HAND is hard at work for all of us exposing their malfeasance. Bill Cara's Blog is my PROOF that the HAND is alive and well right here at my finger tips.
Even China and Russia recognize they cannot outwit THE HAND and are allowing open free trade to blossom. In other words, the Communists even know they cannot outwit THE HAND with centralized control.
WE THE PEOPLE have got the tools and, soon, the motivation to use them and it will start with the financial collapse of state-level indebtedness. Unlike Mises sentiment that FEDERAL gov't will never run out of money, it is important to observe that our states can't print money!
http://tinyurl.com/lu6zzh
Cheers.
Re: GSE OBLIGATIONS
"Even China and Russia recognize they cannot outwit THE HAND and are allowing open free trade to blossom. In other words, the Communists even know they cannot outwit THE HAND with centralized control."
While China is probably a valid example, don't forget that Russia (USSR) recognized the omnipotence of the natural law (Smith's Invisible Hand) only after total collapse caused by denial of that same omnipotence. Of course that law will prevail sooner or later - but the longer a country insists on it being able to ignore the law of nature, the harsher the consequences. The elastic band stretches for so long before it snaps.
So the question becomes - will America back away from the arrogant ways of ignoring the Hand before it's too late, or will it take the full-out collapse of the economy? In this light, next one I'd ask: Do we move currently toward the harmony with the law governing the economics or farther away from it? Looking at the steps taken during 2009, current policies and suggestions for the future steps, I see the band continuing stretching.
THE MOST CROWDED TRADE
ALOHA!!
So when will we see THIS "touted" over at CNBC?
The most "crowded trade" has been the DOW and S&P500 over the past 10 years. The trade that has been the most invisible has outperformed almost everything including some of the best mutual funds where 90% of Americans 401ks sit!
This is what I envisioned back in 2001 when I liquidated my savings and quit contributing to my retirement account and moved all possible savings and earnings not into US Treasuries or into cash but into gold and silver and Hawaii farmland real estate(1998).
LINK: http://goldmoney.com/commentary.html
"GoldMoney Alert - 2 January 2010
Gold Shines for the Ninth Consecutive Year
Gold has now climbed nine years in a row against the US dollar. It appreciated 23.9% in 2009, which was a dazzling performance but only gold's third best annual gain this past decade.
Gold also rose against seven other major world currencies, declining last year only against the Australian dollar. The following table presents the numbers for this decade.
While 2009 was a good year for gold, it was a great year for silver. It rose against all nine of the major world currencies, including a 53.0% gain against the Japanese yen and more spectacular gains ranging from 42.6% to 49.4% against five other currencies."
HUMMMMM???
ALOHA!!
Back in March 2009 I met face-to-face with Bill Murphy of GATA for lunch at a small restaurant in Dallas, Texas and I explained to him the idea of a weekly article that examines the "flow of debt" within the US Treasury. It was then that I told him of a daily published document called the US Treasury Daily Statement. He agreed that the US Treasury debt flows and how they move and their sizes would eventually destroy the US Dollar and the US economy and so my weekly REVENUE BREAKDOWN article was born at GATA. What happens at the US Treasury effects the price of gold and silver and commodities and in fact every day of our lives, because what you pay for goods and services in America today is a direct result of how successful your government, via the elected representatives, has performed their fiscal duties in the past and in the present. The US Treasury Daily Statement is essentially a "report card" on that performance when compared to past Fiscal Years.
For me it is gratifying to see other bloggers pick up on it ...
Here is one for the New Year. Over at ZERO HEDGE Tyler Durden has figured out the correlation between the DOL and the US Treasury Daily Statement in terms of unemployment rates. If you read the last paragraphs then you would swear you have heard that here at the Bill Cara blog before. I am a bit more direct though as I simply call it "riot insurance"! While Durden entitles this piece "Following The Money" I believe a more accurate title is "Following The Debt". That is what I do.
On Government DOL Misrepresentations Part 2: Following The Money, Or In This Case The Average Unemployment Paycheck
LINK: http://tinyurl.com/ycac85a
The Road to Perdition
I came across this blog today.... and wanted to share it...a good read
Here are a few paragraphs and the link
"Democrats and Republicans continue to live in their Washington DC fantasy world where increasing taxes will miraculously solve our problems according to Democrats and decreasing taxes to stimulate growth will solve our dilemmas according to Republicans. Both are delusional and dishonest."
"Our political system is so corrupt and dysfunctional that there is absolutely no chance that our path will be altered at the voting booth. Government programs are fashioned, but never finished. The IRS tax code consists of 3.4 million words covering 7,500 pages of payoffs to business lobbyists. Simplicity is a virtue. The politicians who are bought and sold by corporate interests prefer complexity and obscuring the truth. Everyone knows that the government cannot fulfill the fiscal promises they have already made. Instead of dealing with this reality using intelligence, courage and conviction, the weak kneed politicians that slither the halls of Congress have chosen to add a brand new bloated entitlement program guaranteed to detonate in our faces. This is the existing reality"
"Based upon the projected budget deficits over the next ten years, the National Debt will reach $25 trillion by 2019. Interest on the National Debt at various interest rates would be:
Rate Interest Expense
3.5% $875 billion
5.0% $1.25 trillion
7.5% $1.87 trillion
10.0% $2.50 trillion
Total 2008 expenditures of the U.S. government were $2.5 trillion vs 1.8T in revenues. The law of supply and demand will inevitably lead to much higher interest rates. The market will call the U.S. bluff. It will happen well before 2019. The result will be chaos, upheaval, and social unrest. This is based upon just our current spending. The unfunded commitments made by corrupt myopic politician’s decades into the future cannot be honored. These unfunded liabilities total $106.8 trillion according to the Social Security and Medicare Trustees. The bold faced lies by politicians and mainstream media morons about “bending the cost curve” downward are outrageous in their audacity."
LINK
http://tinyurl.com/yascf8g
Re: GSE OBLIGATIONS
Vadym -
If I understand correctly, 15 soviet republics broke from the union and downsized Russia to a more manageable size.
I see the U.S. as far less centralized under Federalism (sharing between national and state gov'ts) than even unitary (UK, France, Israel) or confederated systems. Economic collapse and crisis within a state like California will come with the downgrade of its bond rating (snap). If that doesn't bring some fiscal reality into the economic fold, panic will spread to a national level faster than a ...
'Everything is funny as long as it is happening to somebody else.' - Will Rogers.
Re: GSE OBLIGATIONS
It manifested itself in much more than republics separation... Economic collapse, full scale: halt of production, skyrocketing unemployment, hyperinflation (forget those measly 2 or 4%, we are talking currency cut in half overnight, repeatedly), death of savings - literally, money people saved over their entire life turned into cost of box of matches, no exaggeration. Defaults, closures, all economic links being severed, pensions not being paid, etc etc. Not pretty picture by any means.
Re: GSE OBLIGATIONS
Dr. Strangelove, Vad,
I'm hoping we can put an end to this massive move toward bigger and more centralized government.
Perhaps enough people are losing faith in the ability of the Federal leadership that we can form an effective third party.
Perhaps, as Kaimu pointed out, the states will force passage of an amendment to limit or remove the powers of Congress which got us into this mess.
The scenario which marked the end of the Soviet Union is frightening and should be avoided if enough ordinary people are facing dire circumstances. We have the mechanisms to make it work if we can muster the will.
When I read the speeches of pre-Fed Chairman Bernanke in which he outlined the "extraordinary measures" (Helicopter Ben) available to him, I never dreamed it would go this far.
However, when we began to lose hundreds and finally thousands of good manufacturing jobs here in my city, I said, "The unions will never tolerate it." I also said, "They may take the jobs from the low-end without a problem, but people who are used to a good life style won't stand for it."
Boy, was I wrong!
Now I see nearly anything as possible.
Government blocking the exits: Changing Money Market Rules
Perhaps Uncle Sam was unnerved by the events that occurred on September 18th 2008:
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/02/how-world-al...
ZH reports now that to prevent mass redemptions on money market funds new regulations are being proposed to freeze money if it should be deemed necessary. How important are money market funds in the US?:
"Today, money market funds account for approximately 39% of all investment company assets; about 80% of all U.S. companies use money market funds in managing their cash balances; and about 20% of the cash balances of all U.S. households are held in money market funds. Clearly, money market funds have become part of the fabric by which families, and companies manage their financial affairs."
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/government-your-l...
Read the article in full. It seems that investors security is not at the heart of this proposal (I know, I know - I just wanted to say it though) but making money markets as unattractive as possible in order to?... (drum roll)
-push $3T of household and commercial funds back into the arms of HB&B? or
-inflate that equity bubble baby! (take your pick)
The SEC is taking it to another level to keep investors safe.
The Huffington Post suggest an alternative - deposit your money in a Community Bank. Read on:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/arianna-huffington/m...
I am cutting ties in 2010 from paid tv service
This past 2 weeks i have become disgusted with how the networks and show producers are cutting programming to the customer, in negotiating how much & who pays who, for my eyeballs.
Fox seems to have made an agreement with Time Warner Cable. But Scripps Network (HGTV and Food Network) have not come to an agreement with Cablevision.
On December 31 i no longer have HGTV or Food network. They have been playing this bulletin when i tune in, http://bit.ly/6Dwrzm.
Well i will be cancelling my cable (Phone/Cable/Internet) next month and save my $160/month or $1,920 per yr. I have to earn $2800 or so pre-tax to pay for this crap?
Consumers must regain their power. Without our eyeballs or business, the house of cards crumbles. If i pay for tv, I should not have to be subject to advertising. until that changes I will simply get my content online and through other methods.
As for internet service I will just switch to Verizon 3G wireless vs cable modem.
Tallest Building Indicator Still Works
Financial results after skyscraper is completed
http://tinyurl.com/yfqtl5p
Dubai Tower opens
http://tinyurl.com/yjrxvgs
Re: Tallest Building Indicator Still Works
Thats great. The new Freedom Towers in NYC is scheduled to be complete by 2013. I highly doubt it will be done by then though.
http://bit.ly/7uA4hT
Re: I am cutting ties in 2010 from paid tv service
TV is evil, although it is good sometimes to watch and understand the evil....but I agree with your move.
Breaking News: Newark Airport terminal locked down
http://bit.ly/6ZMCC5
"Security breach at Newark Airport. Terminal C on lockdown after man went through the wrong side of a checkpoint exit."
Video: http://bit.ly/5cSICE
Pics, http://twitpic.com/wks45, http://twitpic.com/wkrny
Search on all Tweets related to "Newark" on Twitter:
http://twitter.com/#search?q=newark
Re: Breaking News: Newark Airport terminal locked down
Far more Americans will suffer from illness caused by stress than will ever suffer as a result of an terrorist act.
The people at war with America have causes us to attack ourselves.
Re: Breaking News: Newark Airport terminal locked down
update:
http://bit.ly/7yWs3e
they still have not found the person in question. Makes you wonder who is really doing their jobs at airports?
Re: I am cutting ties in 2010 from paid tv - Verizon 3G modem ..
NYU - I just finished a week with the Verizon modem. Not as fast as DSL, but tolerable. Coverage in rural central California was good. I prepaid a week, which does not allow enough MB (just 250MB) for normal usage.
Also, despite their promises, it proved impossible to use an (anonymous) prepaid card. So, the verion modem doesn't confer any privacy benefits. As with DSL or cable modem, Gov't, a business rival, or an estranged spouse could likely obtain your content - if of a mind to spend for it.
Also, as you may know, Verizon's CDMA technology isn't widely used outside the US.
FWIW,
Jock
testy "Otto" on the best and worst silver companies of 2009
http://incakolanews.blogspot.com/2010/01/2009-smal...
He talks about his fave which placed 2nd, and puts GATA on the spot for theirs, which placed last ...
Re: Breaking News: Newark Airport terminal locked down
"Makes you wonder who is really doing their jobs at airports?
I'm sure if we spend a couple of trillion on those full-body scanners Mr. Chertoff is promoting, things will be just fine!
Re: I am cutting ties in 2010 from paid tv - Verizon 3G modem ..
Thx. I was looking into just paying the $50 per month which is unlimited data. And I fully expect 4G to come sooner than later.
i use my iphone for most of my computing needs now anyway. my laptop would just be for bigger screen real estate and documents/excel/charts.
Is using a verizon modem any less secure than using a wifi network for your typical cable modem hookup?
Video review of Google's new NexusOne phone
http://bit.ly/5HUgq2
This is not the droid. They plan to sell this unlocked so you can use on any carrier, as well as thru tmobile, i believe.
Nasdaq 3000 by Feb 1? Just kidding. watch for Apple product news this month too.
CES is this week.
Re: I am cutting ties in 2010 from paid tv service
NYUGrad,
Just a suggestion if you see enough programming of interest to you...
My neighbor has renegotiated his cable charges several times. He simply calls at the end of the introductory deal which began when he moved here and says, "We are really happy with the service (OK, a white lie.) but find the recent increase a bit of a bind in our budget. I have been checking on going to a disk. Is there any kind of price break available?"
Each time (3 so far) they have given him the latest intro package.
We are currently on a six month pricing and may do the same soon. Rather than a disk I may do as my son and simply watch anything of real interest through my computer — an immediate savings of $54 per month.
When AOL no longer worked without my upgrading both my browser and system I called to cancel. The tech guy in India immediately offered to cut the price per month in half.
Re: Breaking News: Newark Airport terminal locked down
"Far more Americans will suffer from illness caused by stress than will ever suffer as a result of an terrorist act."
This country will die of terminal (pun intended) silliness!