[8:48am ET] Just as the first week of the year was so impressive with all 30 DJIA components and all ten sectors up, this second week was almost the reverse. Twenty-seven DJIA components and 9 of 10 sectors sank. By the end of the week, the public was facing job and spending concerns, and traders were staring at credit market issues and making safe-haven moves in the US Dollar.
Still, there are signs that trader psychology has changed. Traders are more confident, increasing the volume, suppressing the volatility, and holding the line on precious metal prices despite another run-up in the $USD.
In preparing for a stronger equity market in 2009, I made more changes in the Cara Global Best 100 companies list this week. I added US-based Amazon.com (AMZN) and Best Buy (BBY) while removing GOL Airlines of Brazil and computer games maker Netease.com of China. In addition, because I am uncomfortable once again with the hedging issue and lawsuits from the opponents of the gold intervention lobby, I switched out Barrick Gold (ABX) in favor of Kinross Gold (KGC).
At the end of the day, the Cara 100 companies list is an exercise in focusing on quality. We still have to trade the stock price for a profit. But, with only so much time for research, it pays to study companies you rate most highly. It’s easier too focus on the things you have more respect for.
I’d like to repeat the following statement from last week:
In seeking alpha, my trading philosophy is really simple: let the market come to you. If there are line-ups of buyers, then be a seller and if there are line-ups of sellers then be a buyer. But do so only at times when the emotions of the buyers and sellers are high. The financial services industry sell-side plus the media will always stir up the emotions of the public; so the market will always come to you. Be patient… Also, be flexible in your thinking because markets are volatile. You may be a buyer one hour or day or week or month and a seller the next.
I will also repeat one more statement I have been making because it is a simple, clear message that, while the market is a game that plays people, you can turn this knowledge to your advantage.
After the 1929-1932 market crash, the policies of the Fed in 1933 and 1934 were sufficient to take the S&P 500 index from 4.40 on June 1, 1932 to 13.21 on Oct 25, 1939 for a +200% market gain during the economic period known as the Great Depression… Despite perhaps the most deplorable time in the economy in the history of the US, there were five bull markets in less than seven years averaging +84.8%. If you work the numbers through four bull markets ending Nov 9, 1938, the average gain was +98.6%.
At the end of the day, we are responsible for our own capital, even if it requires us to provide discretionary management to others. To the extent we can stay in control by reading, thinking, discussing, learning, and acting, we will protect our assets, and they will grow quickly. We will be the beneficiary of this plan.
For many generations, the world has adored and clung to the “star” system. In part, this is due to a lack of self confidence. As a consequence, we have over-paid and been under-served. The majority of people are now tapped out and disillusioned. Whereas the skies were once clear, allowing those stars to shine brightly, today there are clouds, no longer on the horizon, but immediately above.
I arrived on the scene saying things like those stars put their pants on same as you and me. We come from the same place, and we are going to the same place. What we need is to develop enough self-confidence to realize we can take control and be the star of our own domain.
Worth thinking about.
Let’s see how the week went and is likely to go next.
Global Economics Review
Anne Picker of Econoday writes an informative, concise, and objective weekly report that I recommend.
Weekly International Economic Report .
In my summaries here, I leave the links in because the individual Econoday Reports contain terrific charts and other information, and after the report is published, the link leads to the updated report.
Here are the key US economic reports this coming week on the calendar as well as the Econoday analysis from last week’s reports.
US Motor Vehicle Sales report. Econoday reported, “Car and light truck sales were extremely weak in December but not quite as weak as November, pointing to the possibility of a much needed month-to-month gain for the motor vehicle category. Unit sales of North American made vehicles in December edged up to a 7.7 million annual rate, next only to November as the lowest rate in 20 years of records. Bankruptcy in the auto sector is perhaps the biggest risk of the first quarter.”
US Construction Spending for November. After the release of the November data, Econoday reported, “Construction spending in November fell but not as much as feared. Construction outlays declined 0.6 percent in November, after dropping 0.4 percent in October. The November decrease was not as severe as the consensus forecast for a 1.3 percent decline. Weakness in the latest month was led by a sharp 4.2 percent decrease in private residential outlays. But the other two major components actually rose. Private nonresidential spending rose 0.7 percent while public outlays increased 1.4 percent in November… Within the residential component, single-family construction fell 6.6 percent after a 4.5 percent decline in October. Multifamily outlays decreased 1.8 percent, following a 0.3 percent dip the month before… On a year-on-year basis, overall construction outlays were down 3.3 percent in November… Today’s construction outlays report shows housing continuing to deteriorate while public and nonresidential construction at least temporarily soften the blows of housing on the economy. Looking ahead, problems with retail sales and weak demand for office space suggest a weakening in nonresidential outlays while budget problems for states indicate a reduction in public outlays. However, fiscal stimulus could boost public outlays but not immediately… Markets showed little initial reaction to this morning’s numbers.”
US Factory Orders data for November. After the November data was released, Econoday reported: “Factory orders fell steeply in November, down 4.6 percent from a downwardly revised 6.0 percent decline in October (-5.1 percent previously reported). The decline was exaggerated by a price-related collapse in new orders for nondurable goods, specifically orders for energy products. Outside of nondurable goods, the decline in the month was a much less steep 1.5 percent compared to a stifling 8.5 percent drop in October… Inventories are a big problem for businesses right now. Inventories at factories slipped only 0.3 percent in the month, which compared to the headline 4.6 percent decline in new orders and a 5.3 percent decline for November shipments. High inventories of unwanted goods point to further losses for jobs… Focus continues to be on the auto sector which showed a slowing decline in new orders in November, down only 1 tenth vs. a 4.1 percent drop in October. Yesterday's data on vehicle sales for December were weak but a little less weak than November.”
US Pending Home Sales data for November. After the November data was released, Econoday reported, “The pending home sales index fell 4.0 percent in November pointing to deepening declines for the housing sector (October was revised downward to 85.7). Year-on-year rates are also showing accelerating deterioration, at -5.3 percent in November compared with -1.0 percent in October. Home sales data for December will be released at month end.”
US Weekly Jobless Claims data. After last week’s data was released, Econoday reported, “In a report that sends mixed signals for Friday's jobs data, initial jobless claims fell a steep 24,000 in the Jan. 3 week to a 467,000 level that is, significantly, more than 50,000 below expectations. Another positive is that improvement in the prior week was not revised away, showing a 98,000 drop to 491,000 (492,000 initially reported). The 4-week average also improved, down 27,000 to 525,750… Now the bad news. Continuing claims continue to swell, up 101,000 to 4.611 million for the worst level since 1982. The 4-week average rose 45,000 to 4.470 million, also the highest level since 1982… The holiday season with its shortened weeks and heavy weather effects always makes jobless claims data difficult to read, but the Labor Department said there are no special factors in the latest report.”
US December Jobs Report. After December’s data was released, Econoday reported, “The December employment report was dismal much as markets had expected. But October and November declines were revised down sharply. Nonfarm payroll employment in December plunged 524,000, following a drop of 584,000 in November and a fall of 423,000 in October. Payroll jobs have contracted every month in 2008 for a cumulative loss of 2.6 million this past year—the largest yearly drop since the end of World War II. The December nose dive in nonfarm employment was a little worse than the published market forecast for a 500,000 decrease. But actual expectations were lowered after Wednesday’s very negative ADP report. The November and October figures were revised down a net 154,000… Employment cuts in December were felt across the board. The latest decline was led by the service-providing sector which lost 273,000 jobs. The largest job losses were seen in trade & transportation, down 121,000, and in professional & business services, down 113,000… Goods-producing industries had 251,000 fewer jobs in December. Manufacturing and construction declined by 149,000 and 101,000, respectively. Natural resources & mining slipped 1,000… On a year-on-year basis, nonfarm payroll employment growth fell to down 1.9 percent in December from down 1.5 percent the month before… Average weekly hours fell to 33.3 hours from 33.5 hours in November… Turning to wages, average hourly earnings rose 0.3 percent in December after gaining 0.4 percent in November. The consensus had projected a 0.2 percent gain for December… Turning to the household survey, the civilian unemployment rate surged to 7.2 percent from 6.8 percent in November. Household Survey numbers underwent annual revisions with this report. The November unemployment rate had been originally estimated at 6.7 percent. The December rate topped the consensus forecast for 7.0 percent. December’s number is the highest since 7.3 percent for January 1993… The December employment report shows the recession worsening. This is seen in the fact that job losses were much worse in the second half of 2008 than the first—1.7 million versus 0.9 million. While December’s numbers were close to market expectations, downward revisions to the prior two months indicate that the labor market is in worse shape than previously believed. This will keep the consumer sector very much in a defensive mode – which is not good news for the economy.”
Here are the key US economic reports on the calendar this coming week. It’s a very busy week.
http://fidweek.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=438045&cust=mam&year... ">US International Trade for November. After the October data release, Econoday reported, “The U.S. international trade gap in October widened to $57.2 billion from a $56.6 billion deficit in September. The latest widening in the trade deficit was led by the oil deficit which grew to $32.7 billion from $31.9 billion in September. The nonoil goods deficit actually shrank an incremental amount - to $35.6 billion from $35.7 billion in September. In the latest month, the disconcerting part of the report was another drop in exports. In October, exports declined 2.2 percent while the larger imports component slipped 1.3 percent. Looking ahead, we will see dueling softness in both exports and imports as demand is weakening in both the U.S. and overseas. But another drop in oil import prices is likely to result in at least a temporary shrinkage in the U.S. deficit. This month there is a larger than usual forecast range… International trade balance Consensus Forecast for November 08: -$51.5 billion with the Range: -$58.0 billion to -$39.0 billion.”
http://fidweek.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=438336&cust=mam&year... ">US Treasury Budget data for December. After the release of the November data, Econoday reported, “The U.S. Treasury monthly budget report showed that the deficit in November, inflated by TARP payments, totaled $164.4 billion. Now two months into the fiscal year, the year-to-date deficit is a whopping $401.6 billion. The Treasury's budget is a mess, offering a clear illustration of the great troubles facing the economy. The past offers little guidance for the near term future other than showing the depth of current problems. The month of December typically shows a moderate surplus for the month. Over the past 10 years, the average surplus for the month of December has been $13.8 billion and $7.5 billion over the past 5 years. However, TARP and other issues are likely to turn December 2008 into a sharp deficit… Treasury Statement Consensus Forecast for December 08: -$83.0 billion with the Range: -$150.0 billion to -$26.0 billion.”
http://fidweek.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=438081&cust=mam&year... "> US Retail Sales for December. After the November data was released, Econoday reported: “Retail sales are looking ugly at year end. Overall retail sales fell 1.8 percent in November, following a 2.9 percent record drop in October. Overall retail sales have fallen for five consecutive months. In the latest month, weakness was primarily in gasoline and motor vehicle sales which fell 14.7 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively. Excluding motor vehicles, retail sales dropped 1.6 percent in November, after a 2.4 percent pullback the previous month. Excluding motor vehicles and gasoline, retail sales in November made a partial rebound, rising 0.3 percent after slipping 0.7 percent the month before. Looking forward to December numbers, we may or may not see a modest gain in the headline number as a boost in auto sales is likely to be offset in part or more by non-auto sales. Chain store sales have been very disappointing recently and a drop in gasoline prices will likely tug down on service station sales… Retail sales Consensus Forecast for December 08: -1.2 percent with the Range: -2.1 to -0.3 percent… Retail sales excluding motor vehicles Consensus Forecast for December 08: -1.3 percent with the Range: -2.6 to -0.4 percent.”
US Business Inventory data for November. After the October data was released, Econoday reported, “Business inventories have been declining but not fast enough. Business inventories fell 0.6 percent in October after a 0.4 percent decline in September. However, business sales plunged 3.5 percent in the latest month, resulting in a jump in the inventory-to-sales ratio to 1.34 from 1.30 in September. This ratio is at its highest since 1.35 for June 2003 when businesses, in contrast, were building inventories with the expectation of heavier demand… Business inventories Consensus Forecast for November 08: -0.5 percent
with the Range: -2.4 to 0.0 percent.”US Producer Price Index for December. After November’s data was released, Econoday reported, “The producer price index continued to soften in November, largely on lower energy cost as the overall PPI dropped 2.2 percent, following a 2.8 percent fall in October. The core PPI rate eased to a 0.1 percent gain after jumping 0.4 percent in October. Dragging the headline number down was a monthly 11.2 percent drop in energy costs. Within energy, gasoline plummeted 25.7 percent after a 24.9 percent fall in October… PPI Consensus Forecast for December 08, m/m: -2.0 percent with the Range: -2.9 to -0.7 percent… PPI ex food & energy Consensus Forecast for December 08, m/m: +0.1 percent with the Range: -0.3 to +0.4 percent.”
US Empire State Survey for January. After December’s data was released, Econoday reported, “The Empire State manufacturing index remained deep in contraction mode in December although this index was little changed at minus 25.8. Weak demand for output has led to a plunge in price readings. The prices paid index fell nearly 30 points to minus 7.5 while prices received declined more than 20 points to minus 11.7. The orders picture was not favorable for production in the near term as the new orders index came in at minus 20.8 and backlogs were at negative 27.7… Empire State Manufacturing Survey Consensus Forecast for January 08: -25.0 with the Range: -28.0 to -20.0”
US Pennsylvania Fed Region survey for January. After December’s data was released, Econoday reported, “The general business conditions component of the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey index remained sharply negative in December - but not quite as severely as in November. The Philly Fed's general business conditions index pulled up somewhat to minus 32.9 from minus 39.3 in November. But contraction has been significant as this index has been at very negative levels for three months. New orders point to further weakness ahead as this index came in at minus 25.2. The unfilled orders index also remained significantly negative. Price pressures eased further as the prices paid index fell to minus 33.2 from minus 30.7 in November. Also, prices received dropped sharply to minus 37.8 from minus 15.5 the month before… Philadelphia Fed survey Consensus Forecast for January 09: -35.0 with the Range: -41.3 to -23.7.”
US Consumer Price Index for December. After November’s data was released, Econoday reported, “The consumer price index in November fell for the fourth month in row due to lower energy costs. The headline CPI dropped 1.7 percent in November, following a 1.0 percent decrease in October. September is reported as no change but before rounding the CPI edged down incrementally. Meanwhile, the core rate in November was unchanged and followed a 0.1 percent outright decline in October. Keeping the core rate soft were declines in lodging while away from home, new and used vehicles, and in public transportation (which includes airline fares). For the latest month, energy fell a monthly 17.0 percent, pulled down by a 29.5 percent plunge in gasoline prices… CPI Consensus Forecast for December 08, m/m: -0.9 percent with the Range: -1.5 to -0.4 percent… CPI Consensus Forecast for December 08, y/y: -0.2 percent with the Range: -0.8 to +0.2 percent… CPI ex food & energy Consensus Forecast for December 08, m/m: +0.1 percent with the Range: -0.1 to +0.2 percent… CPI ex food & energy Consensus Forecast for December 08, y/y: +1.9 percent with the Range: +1.7 to +1.9 percent.”
US Industrial Production for December. After November’s data was released, Econoday reported, “Industrial production in November resumed its strong downtrend after a technical rebound in October. Overall industrial production in November fell 0.6 percent, following a 1.5 percent rebound in October. The rebound in October was due to oil and chemical facilities coming back online after Hurricanes Gustav and Ike. In November, the all-important manufacturing component dropped 1.4 percent after a 0.6 percent partial rebound the month before. Within manufacturing, declines were widespread. Overall capacity utilization in November dropped to 75.4 percent from 76.0 percent in October and came in lower than the consensus forecast for 75.7 percent. Looking ahead, manufacturing output is likely to be ugly in January as manufacturing production hours plummeted a monthly 2.4 percent for the month, according to the employment situation report… Industrial production Consensus Forecast for December: -1.0 percent with the
Range: -2.0 to -0.2 percent… Capacity utilization Consensus Forecast for December 08: 74.6 percent with the Range: 73.2 to 75.2 percent.”
This is a big week for US economic data, but I anticipate most of the discussion will be focused on all the good stuff to come from the President-Elect Obama Economics Team.
Sector ETF Summary for the International equity markets
Country ETF’s were mostly down this week, some very negative, but UK (EWU +1.14%), Canada (EWC +0.89%) and Brazil (EWZ +3.30%) were up.
As I pointed out a week ago, pro traders arb these markets in both directions depending on the differences in market hours.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arbitrage
US Equity Markets Review
NASDAQ Composite ino.com chart
NASDAQ Composite stockcharts.com chart
Here is the list of the ten highest-weighted non-financial stocks in the NASDAQ Composite. Put them in a watchlist (see Google Finance Portfolio) and watch them like a hawk:
AAPL MSFT GOOG QCOM RIMM CSCO INTC ORCL GILD EBAY
Daily RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10
Weekly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10
Monthly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10
A week ago, there were 30 of 30 DJIA index components that lifted. This week, 27 of the 30 were negative.
As I pointed out a couple weeks ago,
“Based on all the data I look at, I don’t expect to see a booming equity market until late in the first quarter 2009, and probably not until after earnings season is underway early in 2Q09. In the meantime, as I say, I am bullish and expect prices to gradually lift starting any day now; however, I continue to expect a range-bound or side-tracking market where I am selectively buying dips and selling rallies… Before committing full positions to the long side, I need to see (i) much more volume come into the NYSE and NASDAQ, and (ii) the Financial sector (XLF) break to the upside on high volume. Then I believe the 2008 Bull Market, which I believe started on Nov 21, the day after the S&P 500 put in a low of 741, will pick up momentum. I don’t think that’s likely until the previous S&P 500 cycle high of 1007 is taken out. That would put the DJIA index break-out at about 9640… High volume, as I see it, will occur when there are consecutive days of a +100% increase in average daily trading volumes for at least 25 of the Cara 100 stocks, with higher prices on those days. Until then, there is a lot of nervousness among traders based on the weak economic data and a fragile credit market.
That nervousness was evident on Wednesday and Friday this week.
Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market
Here’s the SPY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
SPY Monthly data:
SPY Weekly data:
SPY Daily data:
The tables I show are for eleven GICS Sector Index Funds (ETF’s), including two for Technology (XLK and SMH), for a total of ten GICS sectors. They cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.
Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. SPY XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF XLK SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETFs - up to 30 in total.
For a list of components to many ETFs, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETFs.
10 (energy: XLE)
15 (basic materials: XLB)
20 (industrial: XLI)
25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)
30 (consumer staples: XLP)
35 (healthcare: IYH)
40 (financial: XLF)
45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)
50 (telecom: IYZ)
55 (utilities: XLU)
Individual Sector ETF Review
Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)
Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLE Monthly data:
XLE Weekly data:
XLE Daily data:
Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
$WTIC plunged -11.89% and the Energy sector (XLE) lost -3.01% to 48.64.
The Energy stocks (XLE) actually had a good week except for Friday (-3.36%), which caused a loss W/W of -3.01%.
Suncor Energy (SU +11.0%) was the clear winner, while China National Offshore (CEO -6.8%) was weak. Suncor reported this week that December production at its oil sands facility averaged approx 235,000 barrels per day
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada
Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)
Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLB Monthly data:
XLB Weekly data:
XLB Daily data:
Table 3: Senior Basic Materials:
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Basic Materials (XLB -0.98% W/W to 23.34), which was the second best performer on the week.
The sector winning stocks were Gerdau Steel (GGB +16.9%), Vale Mining (RIO +5.2%) and Votorantim pulp & paper (VCP +3.7%). The Brazilian Bolsa was dancing – largely because traders are figuring that base metal and steel prices are going to zoom once the various govts of the world start implementing their economic stimuli plans. I buy that argument
Unfortunately, America was not. Alcoa (AA -10.7%) (aluminum) and Nucor (NUE -9.5%) plunged. The reason for this pull-back was the auto industry sales collapse reported this week.
Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)
Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLI Monthly data:
XLI Weekly data:
XLI Daily data:
Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation:
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Industrials (XLI -4.32% W/W) closed at 23.23.
The sector winner this week was Brazil’s Embraer (ERJ +5.6%).
America’s UPS (UPS -9.2%) and Caterpillar (CAT -7.9%) plunged.
Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)
Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLY Monthly data:
XLY Weekly data:
XLY Daily data:
Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Consumer Discretionary (XLY -5.21% W/W including -3.07% on Friday) was the second weakest sector ETF, closing at 21.47.
December same-store sales, including the holiday sales, were weak.
Brunswick Corp (BC +2.6% W/W) was up again, but the loss on Friday was a huge -13.1%.
BC seems to plunge every time the T-Bill yields plunge, as traders sell risk and jump ship for the lifeboats.
Speaking of ships, and safe-haven moves, Carnival Cruise (CCL) was down 7.6%. Disney (DIS) was down 6.7%.
On the ground, Nike (NKE -6.5%) slowed the pace. Consumer sales must be deplorable.
This week I added Best Buy (BBY), the top seller of consumer electronics, to the Cara 100. The company soon reported that December revenue rose +4% to $7.5B year-over-year, which was in-line with guidance. But, US same-store sales plunged -6.8%, while international same-store sales dropped -4.2%, so the stock tanked -5.30% on Friday (-3.24% W/W). Analysts' consensus earnings estimate is $2.61, which is right in the middle of the latest guidance. Even with these sales results, Best Buy believes that it continued to increase its market share during the holiday shopping season. "While the environment continues to be as challenging as we expected, consumers are being drawn to brands that they trust, and they are responding to our customer-centric model. In this light, we believe the market share gains we've been making will be sustained," said Best Buy CEO Brad Anderson.
I also added online retailer Amazon.com (AMZN) to the Cara 100 list this week. The stock has been flying since its late November low of $34.68 up to the early Jan high of $58.22, closing this week at $55.51. Reuters reported that at least one option player believes the upside is limited in AMZN. On Thursday, a large vertical call spread was put on, where the trader bought the April $80 calls and sold the April $65 calls for a net credit of $3.16, betting that Amazon will not go above $65 by April option expiration. The break-even for that trade is $68.16. I would not do that trade because the RSI-7 Daily-Weekly-Monthly is 59.78-52.93-40.53. I would have waited until AMZN got into the Distribution Zone (DZ) with the Daily RSI-7 (and perhaps the Weekly RSI-7 as well) got above the 70 level and the Daily started to fall. On a fundamental/technical basis, it could be that the new Economic Stimulus Plan of President-Elect Obama could cause these stocks to surge by the time April options expiry rolls by.
Anyway, I illustrate this because new options traders can learn from it. I recommend buying a book like “McMillan on Options” from Wiley and using it to study trades like this one on AMZN that you see reported in the media.
http://www.amazon.com/McMillan-Options-Marketplace-Book-Books/dp/0471119601
Speaking of Amazon and the McMillan book, you can also use the link to see what other popular options books are out there.
Also, for your study of retailers, every time there is an important reporting week for this sector, like the present one, I recommend going to the Google Finance portfolio program and entering the whole list, and then sorting by % change. Do it daily.
NYSE:GPS NYSE:ANF NASDAQ:URBN NYSE:ANN NYSE:LTD NASDAQ:BEBE NASDAQ:CACH NASDAQ:DBRN NYSE:IBI NYSE:TLB NASDAQ:CWTR NYSE:GES NYSE:BKE NASDAQ:PSUN NYSE:TWB NASDAQ:HOTT NYSE:KSS NYSE:DDS NYSE:JCP NASDAQ:SHLD NYSE:JWN NYSE:SKS NYSE:WMT NYSE:TGT NYSE:FDO NASDAQ:ROST NYSE:TJX NASDAQ:FRED NYSE:BJ NASDAQ:COST NYSE:HD NYSE:LOW NYSE:ETH NYSE:PIR NYSE:WSM NASDAQ:BBBY NYSE:CVS NYSE:WAG NYSE:RAD NYSE:KR NYSE:SWY NASDAQ:WFMI NYSE:BBY OTC:CCTYQ NYSE:RSH NYSE:PSS NASDAQ:AMZN NYSE:BKS NASDAQ:EBAY NASDAQ:SBUX NYSE:TIF NASDAQ:WMAR NASDAQ:DLTR NYSE:NDN NYSE:M NASDAQ:BONT
On Friday, for example, you will see the extreme losers were (i) CVS Caremark (CVS), Dillards Dept Stores (DDS) and Talbots (TLB). You would then click on the summary for each company to determine what the major issue was; and then consider how it might relate to that company’s peer group. I look to see if there are more losers than winners, and by how much, and whether the extreme movers are bunched by type of company or are the larger or smaller capitalizations (ie, heavyweight vs light-weight). For example the heavyweights are Wal-Mart (WMT), Home Depot (HD), CVS Caremark (CVS), Lowes (LOW), Target (TGT), Walgreen (WAG), Amazon (AMZN), Costco (COST), Ebay (EBAY), Krogers (KR), Best Buy (BBY) and Kohl’s (KSS) in that order. Some of these are more discretionary spending (XLY), like AMZN and BBY, than Staples (XLP), like the Wallies (WMT and WAG).
Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)
Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLP Monthly data:
XLP Weekly data:
XLP Daily data:
Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Consumer Staples (XLP -5.00% W/W to 23.00) was third worst performing sector, which showed that it wasn’t so defensive after all.
Relatively lightly regarded Whole Foods (WFMI +27.1%) soared, while the heavyweights all sank: WMT -9.8%, KR -6.5%, PEP -6.1%, and PG -4.7%.
WFMI may be in play as a take-over target.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a_sws_.lKVJs&refer=home
Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)
Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
IYH Monthly data:
IYH Weekly data:
IYH Daily data:
Table 7: Senior healthcare equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
The Healthcare sector (IYH -3.66% W/W to 52.68) was a mid-range performer.
The sector winner was Glaxo Smith Kline (GSK +5.2%), while Genentech (DNA +4.5%) was up on reports that Roche may up the deal to buy out the balance of shares.
Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)
Here’s the XLF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLF Monthly data:
XLF Weekly data:
XLF Daily data:
Table 8: Senior financial company equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Financials (XLF -8.69% W/W to 11.56) lost just a bit more than it gained a week ago (+7.38%), but it was the worst performer this week by far. A week ago Friday, I noted that XLF was the worst performing of the 10 sectors.
These banks are hard to figure. Very volatile as they try to clean up their books.
The big winner this week was MS +12.2%, and it was the big winner a week ago (+17.2%). Will MS acquire the Smith Barney broker-dealer unit from Citigroup (C), which has been speculated on CNBC? Something’s happening with its stock? Insider trading or just rumor that the Fed is pressuring Morgan Stanley to raise capital now to make a bid for Citi’s Smith Barney?
Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)
Here’s the SMH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
SMH Monthly data:
SMH Weekly data:
SMH Daily data:
Here’s the XLK Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLK Monthly data:
XLK Weekly data:
XLK Daily data:
Table 9: Senior technology equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Tech (XLK -2.75% W/W to 15.55) and Semi-conductors (SMH -4.68% W/W to 17.52) both pulled back, but not nearly as much as the prior week’s gains of +6.96% and +8.98%.
For the Techs, the winners were Research in Motion (RIMM +13.2%) and First Solar (FSLR +7.3%), while Oracle (ORCL -5.7%) was the big loser.
RIM’s Blackberry Bold seems to be turning heads. The problem I have with my Blackberry Curve is that I don’t have the time or patience to learn all the features. I probably need that TV computer huckster’s help (“Buy my program!”).
http://www.itbusiness.ca/it/client/en/home/News.asp?id=51549
With the semi-conductors, Taiwan Semi (TSM -8.9%) and Intel (INTC -6.9%) were losers. SanDisk (SNDK +11.0%) was a big winner. SanDisk introduced a new USB flash drive.
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)
Here’s the IYZ Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
IYZ Monthly data:
IYZ Weekly data:
IYZ Daily data:
Telecom (IYZ +0.65% W/W) closed at 17.11. That +11 cents was sufficient to make the Telcos the top performing sector this week. That performance was hard to believe when the biggest telcos were hammered: Verizon (VZ -7.2%) and AT&T (T -9.3%).
Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)
Here’s the XLU Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLU Monthly data:
XLU Weekly data:
XLU Daily data:
Utilities (XLU -2.12% to 29.08) was a loser.
The big winner last week, Exelon (EXC +8.9%), was the big loser (-5.3%) and Southern Co (SO -5.2%) was down as well. Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG) gained just +1.7% to be the big winner here.
Here is the list of North American Utilities that I follow closely:
AEP D DUK ED EXC FE FPL NGG PCG PEG SO TRP
For study purposes, there is a good mix of electric (AEP, D, DUK, FE, FPL and SO), gas (NGG, TRP) and diversified (ED, EXC, PCG, PEG) utilities.
Table 12: US Utilities
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Bonds & Yields Review
Table 10: US Treasury Yields
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Month | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| 6 Month | 0.27 | 0.25 | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| 2 Year | 0.75 | 0.83 | 0.83 | 0.85 |
| 3 Year | 1.10 | 1.17 | 1.08 | 1.14 |
| 5 Year | 1.51 | 1.58 | 1.66 | 1.61 |
| 10 Year | 2.39 | 2.44 | 2.38 | 2.68 |
| 30 Year | 3.06 | 3.04 | 2.80 | 3.09 |
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2yr AA | 1.78 | 1.86 | 2.39 | 2.31 |
| 2yr AAA | 1.70 | 2.09 | 2.32 | 2.06 |
| 2yr A | 2.26 | 2.19 | 3.05 | 3.39 |
| 5yr AAA | 2.13 | 2.35 | 2.85 | 2.90 |
| 5yr AA | 2.10 | 2.18 | 2.52 | 3.08 |
| 5yr A | 2.57 | 2.91 | 3.26 | 3.21 |
| 10yr AAA | 3.07 | 3.27 | 3.69 | 4.28 |
| 10yr AA | 3.24 | 3.44 | 4.05 | 4.21 |
| 10yr A | 4.06 | 4.27 | 4.36 | 5.06 |
| 20yr AAA | 4.78 | 4.59 | 4.22 | 5.53 |
| 20yr AA | 4.64 | 4.69 | 4.32 | 5.76 |
| 20yr A | 5.14 | 5.35 | 4.63 | 6.26 |
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2yr AA | 3.08 | 3.36 | 3.47 | 5.29 |
| 2yr A | 3.98 | 3.99 | 3.85 | 5.87 |
| 5yr AAA | 3.10 | 3.18 | 3.33 | 5.03 |
| 5yr AA | 3.58 | 3.59 | 4.02 | 5.82 |
| 5yr A | 4.97 | 5.14 | 4.90 | 7.07 |
| 10yr AAA | 4.29 | 4.34 | 4.27 | 4.68 |
| 10yr AA | 4.70 | 4.70 | 4.96 | 5.87 |
| 10yr A | 5.26 | 5.35 | 5.37 | 6.61 |
| 20yr AAA | 5.50 | 5.42 | 5.26 | 5.25 |
| 20yr AA | 5.39 | 5.34 | 5.11 | 5.33 |
| 20yr A | 5.98 | 6.01 | 5.84 | 6.52 |
I’ll start by repeating what I wrote in this space a week ago:
Do you recall?
One of these weeks, TLT will crash. As I stated here a week ago, I suspect it will happen after the banks sell those bonds back to the Fed, absolutely making gazillions in profits in the meantime. Then who’s going to buy the next batch?
Yes, a week ago I was pleased that the 20-year Treasury ETF (TLT) lost -0.68% W/W and I was looking forward to more of that. Well, this week, TLT plunged -3.76% to 116.35, including a loss of -2.51% on Friday.
This week the losses continued, as TLT plunged -3.39% to 112.40.
TIP was strong, however, gaining +2.12% W/W, including +0.81% on Friday, to close at 99.44.
CPI and PPI data will be published this coming week.
A couple weeks ago I pointed out that Total Return includes a dividend yield that is very high for several of the high yielding DJIA components like VZ, T, MRK, PFE, KFT, GE and BAC. You will start with a current yield of about +4% and those dividends will increase on average some +7% to +10% a year for these companies, and the share prices in 5 to 10 years (to replace the bonds) will be significantly higher, so your Total Return will likely be over +10% annually on the current cost base. I asked why would you possibly accept and average of +1.73% yield from an average of 5- and 10-year Treasuries two weeks ago?
The point, I remarked, is that you shouldn’t, and that you should have sold those bonds at the top of the cycle. The combined 5 and 10-year yield at the close last week was still just 2.02%. I remarked that 2.02% won’t pay many bills.
This week, the combined 5 and 10-year yield dropped back to 1.95%.
There were a lot of anomalies in the bond markets this week. I don’t know why.
Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.
Interest rates and bond yields.
Interactive Daily data charts:
Interactive Chart of Interest rates and bond yields.
This chart is stunning to long-term observers of the debt markets.
US Bond Funds -- Interactive Monthly Data Charts
SHY Monthly data series chart:
IEF Monthly data series chart:
TLT Monthly data series chart:
AGG Monthly data series chart:
LQD Monthly data series chart:
TIP Monthly data series chart:
US Bond Funds -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts
SHY Weekly data series chart:
IEF Weekly data series chart:
TLT Weekly data series chart:
AGG Weekly data series chart:
LQD Weekly data series chart:
TIP Weekly data series chart:
US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
SHY Daily data series chart:
IEF Daily data series chart:
TLT Daily data series chart:
AGG Daily data series chart:
LQD Daily data series chart:
TIP Daily data series chart:
Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
I wrote a bit about distressed debt in this space a week ago. I don’t trade it, and in fact stay away from it because the market’s a swamp full of alligators. I like to keep trading simple. If I don’t understand something, and it’s not an easy study in market interrelationships, I avoid it. Something like the trade in carbon credits, or weather futures, I don’t understand and hence avoid. My initial impression is that these markets are full of Wall Street vultures, sharks, snakes and alligators. I don’t let them get near me. I like to stick to Exxon, IBM, Procter & Gamble, Wal-Mart, McDonald’s, Goldcorp and Silver Wheaton – what’s so hard to understand about these companies? Nothing, so why venture into markets you don’t understand?
Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts
Mortgage Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
Commodities Review
After the $CRB index had a break-out week, gaining +8.66% to 233.92, up from 215.28, this week was a bit of a test, where $CRB dropped -1.71% to 229.91.
Mostly the pullback was caused by oil, which plunged -11.89% from 46.34 to 40.83.
As I wrote in this space a week ago, “It’s a very volatile market, but the net effect over the next few months ought to be a series of higher highs and higher lows.”
In the past six weeks, the 50-day MA for $CRB fell from 283.11 to 268.60, 257.15, 248.80, 242.86, 238.62 and now 235.84. The 200-day MA has dropped from 380.30 to 375.94, 371.24, 366.49, 362.42, 359.06, to 355.09.
As I wrote previously, “We will be watching in the 1Q09 sometime when this downward trend reverses.”
I have been net bullish, but truly there are few fundamental reasons. Mostly, this is a case of a far oversold market as I see it. Others, like Jim Rogers in particular believe there are good fundamental reasons to be a buyer.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Rogers
After governments around the world actually start delivering on their promised economic stimuli programs, the $CRB ought to move higher.
Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:
Oil Review
A week ago, $WTIC soared +$8.63/bbl (+22.89%) to 46.34; this week the contracts collapsed, dropping -$5.51 (-11.59%) to 40.83.
I am still a net oil bull, which simply means I am quick to take profits, believing that the price will move higher three steps up and two back on its way to 60-75.
For $WTIC, the 50d MA has fallen each week from 73.95 to 67.85, 62.51, 58.03, 54.80, 52.42, and now to 50.39. The 200d MA dropped from 107.18 to 105.86, 104.49, 103.02, 101.61, 100.34, and now to 98.87.
The price in mid-July hit a record high of $149.90. When the oil market stabilizes, I expect the 200d MA will be under 75, and possibly lower, so even if there is a sharp bounce, I do expect that the oil market will work through a very long bottom phase.
$GOLD futures are no longer highly correlated to oil. After $WTIC lifts into the high end of a trading range (I say it’ll be about 75), it will fall back a bit and side-track while $GOLD should continue to rally. $GOLD is an easily storable community, whereas speculators are seeking to lease empty tankers to store oil, playing the contango.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contango
Contango and backwardation are concepts you need to understand, particularly where there are storage issues.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Backwardation
As for gold, as I say, send me yours; I’ll store it. :-)
Here is the e-miNY Dec-07 Crude Oil chart.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:
Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:
Gold & Precious Metals Review
$GOLD lifted +0.06% or 50 cents on Friday, but the week was a downer for the gold bugs, plunging -$24.50/oz (-2.79%) to $855.00.
The price has been sidetracking for several weeks. Again, like oil, I am a net bull. On a break-out, I will be a rodeo bull.
For $GOLD, the 50d MA has fallen from 798.33 to 785.98, 779.17, 776.08, then up to 777.66, 786.22, and this week 798.30. The 200d MA has dropped from 875.05 to 870.77, 866.58, 863.42, 860.69, 858.88, and now 856.76.
I like the action, for silver as well.
Three weeks ago I wrote in this space, “I’m looking for a turn in the MA’s as $GOLD cycles through the bottom.” Then a week ago, there was a turn in the 50d MA, which confirmed my bullish thinking. But I am not a full-out bull here as the 200d MA hasn’t turned yet.
There were a lot of positive signs though. $PLAT and $COPPER gained over +6% this week. On Friday, $COPPER gained +5.44%, and $SILVER gained +2.01%, but $PALL dropped -3.18%, so the jury is still out.
Clearly, the US economy is not on strong footing yet; but everything is relative, so you have to watch the dynamics of the central bank rate cuts, and forex cycles, and relative strength of the various equity sectors before you can comfortably trade gold.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.
Spot silver chart for the week
$SILVER lost -$0.17/oz (-1.48% W/W) to close at 11.32. There was a big gain (+2.01%) on Friday despite a huge gain in the $USD.
For $SILVER, the 50d MA moved down from 10.54 to 10.15, 9.96, and 9.91, then up to 9.92, 10.04, and now 10.23. The 200d MA has dropped from 15.26 to 15.05, 14.81, 14.58, 14.39, 14.23, and now to 14.06.
This week, my company produced a 100-page 15MB report on Silver Wheaton (SLW). Please circulate the link to friends and associates because it’s a solid report with no axe to grind. We do these reports without support of any kind from any source. We need to understand the companies we trade, and besides the report presentation is good exposure for us.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.
$PLAT closed well up at 1005.50, up $58.50/oz from 941.50, up +6.21% W/W. The gain a week earlier was +5.25% from 894.50.
The 50-day MA, which had dropped all the way from 1047.19 to 989.45, 947.92, 928.29, 888.38, 869.87, 852.35, to 841.31 over seven weeks, then turned up to 843.66 and now up to 861.52.
The 200-day MA fell from 1711.39 to 1690.15, 1661.38, 1646.07, 1614.63, 1588.08, 1547.12, 1522.73, to 1505.36, and now to 1476.59.
There does appear to be a mid-Oct cycle bottom.
Spot platinum chart for the week
Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.
A week ago, $PALL soared +9.26%, but this week, the price dropped -$0.40 (-0.21%) to close at 191.90. That’s referred to as a consolidating week. Only in fast markets do prices move straight up or down the elevator.
The 50d and 200d MA is at 192.93 and 325.15, respectively.
Spot palladium chart for the week
Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.
A week ago, $COPPER lifted +12.08% to close at 146.10. This week there was a gain of +6.74% to 155.95.
The 50d and 200d MA’s were 156.22 and 296.73, respectively, so the price is nudging up to the 50d MA, and therefore must be watched closely.
Vale Mining (RIO +5.2% W/W) was also up +16.9% a week earlier, so you had to know copper contracts would be up as well.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.
Table 12: Senior gold equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
The Goldminer indexes and ETFs were all weaker after having taken losses on the prior Friday: $XAU -7.21%, GDX -6.03%, and XGD -10.79%.
By far, the goldminer group’s biggest losses this week were: BVN -16.4%, GG -13.1%, and LIHR -12.9%. EGO gained +3.0% W/W.
To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:
NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:
SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:
Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:
The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.
Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:
GDX Weekly data:
GDX Daily data:
The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.
Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:
Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:
Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:
Forex Review
You cannot trade commodities that are priced in $USD without studying forex movement. The Forex market is a multi-trillion dollar marketplace every day, which dwarfs the size of the stock and bond markets. In this market, the Euro/USD is the highest volume trader. The $USD is a trade-weighted US Dollar index, we used to call the Morgan Dollar.
The current value of $USD is a mean value of rate fluctuations of six world currencies (Japanese yen, Euro, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc and Swedish krona) that each trade against the USD.
This week the $USD gained +1.04% to 82.71, after gaining +0.80% on the previous Friday.
Still, five weeks ago, the price was 86.95.
The 50-day MA for the $USD has moved from 83.42 to 84.42, 85.02, 84.96, 84.89, and 84.75, and now to 84.38 this week. The 200-day MA had moved from 76.22, 76.49, 76.75, 76.93, 77.10, to 77.29, and now to 77.55.
As I have said, I expect to see more weakness after the volume and price in international markets pick up steam this month, which would move USD to foreign stocks.
Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:
The Euro ($XEU) lost -0.78% a week ago, and a further -3.36% this week, closing at 134.53. It had moved up over 140 from 127 in recent weeks, which was a major rally, and needed to rest. The pull-back seems excessive.
The Euro futures contract 50day MA had dropped from 132.70, 130.77, and to 129.69, then reversed to 130.12, 130.48, and to 131.01 last week, and 131.87 this week. The 200day MA has come from 148.46 to 147.95, 147.47, 147.17, 146.87, 146.53, and now to 146.03.
The European Central Bank seems less inclined to adopt the same loose money strategies as the Fed.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:
Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:
The Pound gained a massive +4.43% to 151.95. That strength is not likely to follow through next week, as attention turns to the Euro.
The 50-day MA fell from 165.16, 161.49, 158.44, 156.31, 154.26, 152.16, and now 151.20. The 200-day MA has moved in recent weeks from 187.51, 186.32, 185.08, 183.91, 182.81, 181.70, and now to 180.47.
Weekly British Pound Index:
Daily British Pound Index:
Weekly Japanese Yen Index:
The Japanese Yen ($XJY) gained +1.61% this week, closing at 110.60.
The Yen’s 50-day MA is now 106.66 and the 200-day MA is 97.98.
Daily Japanese Yen Index:
The Loonie (Cdn Dollar) rebounded +0.95% one week ago and then a further +1.74% this week to 84.05.
The Loonie 50-day MA and 200-day MA are now at 81.88 and 92.43, respectively.
Weekly Canadian Dollar Index:
Daily Canadian Dollar Index:
Here is the China Yuan (CNY) chart.
International Equity Markets Review
International equity market prices were mixed this week, but were weak at the end of the week:
UK FTSE, after rallying to 4561.8, pulled back to 4448.5 this week
German DAX, after rallying to 4973.1, pulled back to 4783.9 this week
Aussie All-Ords lifted to 3655.7 one week ago, and up to 3680.4 this week
HK Hang Seng, after rallying to 15042.8 one week ago, pulled back to 14377.4
India’s BSE 30, after rallying to 9958.2, pulled back to 9406.5 this week
Japan’s Nikkei 225 has been more or less flat after rallying from 7917.5 to 8235.9 and to 8588.5 and 8739.5 before settling in at 8836.8 this week
Brazil’s Bovespa soared from 36864.1 to 40244.2, and then to 41582.9 this week.
There are 16 country index charts from StockCharts.com (with their formal approval btw) because I think it is important to be watching these markets move through a trend juncture together, and in relation to currency and commodity strength or weakness.
I also made some additions to the country-based ETF tables as I intend to focus more on ETF’s next year. In time, I will also set up more tables and track the domestic market prices. This will come after we switch to the Drupal platform later this month.
Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.
Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.
Brazilian Bovespa stockcharts.com chart
Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.
Toronto 300 stockcharts.com chart
Toronto CDNX stockcharts.com chart
Europe
Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.
Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.
FTSE 100 stockcharts.com chart
Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.
Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.
Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.
Italian Milan Index stockcharts.com chart
Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.
Swiss Market Index stockcharts.com chart
Asia-Pacific
Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.
Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.
Tokyo Nikkei 225 Index stockcharts.com chart
Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .
Singapore Straits Times Index stockcharts.com chart
Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .
Shanghai Composite Index stockcharts.com chart
Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .
Hong Kong Hang Seng stockcharts.com chart
Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .
Mumbai BSE 30 Sensex Index stockcharts.com chart
Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .
Sydney All Ordinaries Index stockcharts.com chart
Russia (RTS) stockcharts.com chart
Table 13: International equities via an ETF perspective (in $USD)
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ
Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
U.K. equity market ETF
Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
EWU Daily data:
Canada’s equity market
Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
Taiwan’s equity market
Here is the Republic of China/Taiwan (EWT) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
US Equity Markets Review
All four major US equity market indexes were very weak this week after being very strong a week ago. About half the losses on the week were taken on Friday, which started on a down note, then side-tracked most of the day before plunging again into the close.
The four major US equity indexes plunged this week: NASDAQ Composite (-3.71%), S&P 500 (-4.45%), DJIA (-4.83%) and Russell 2000 small cap index (-4.85%), which was not surprising after I closed the previous Week In Review by alerting you to the extremely high RSI-7 levels in the key indexes.
The equity markets are likely to recover a bit this week as the Inauguration Day gets nearer. There is a lot of economic data to be released this week though, so the markets may churn sideways somewhat. This will not be an easy week to trade equities or forex.
The key to a rally will be the US Treasury Bills. If the yield pops, so too will equity prices and precious metals.
A dozen NASDAQ stocks to watch.
Here is the Monthly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.
Here is the Weekly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.
Here is the Daily data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.
Table 14: Dow 30 List
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.
AA AXP BA BAC C CAT CVX DD DIS GE GM HD HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KFT KO MCD MMM MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM
Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)
Value Line Report(s) this past Friday
This week, Value Line reported on four DJIA components, Cara 100’s General Electric (GE), IBM (IBM) and Intel (INTC), plus Hewlett-Packard (HPQ).
There are many of you who question why Hewlett-Packard does not replace GE, but I am not going to walk on one of the world’s best managed companies even if their GE Capital division is causing management so much grief. But, there are several companies still listed in the Cara 100 that cannot hold a candle to the quality of Hewlett-Packard, so, in my desire to upgrade quality at the same time as improve the trading liquidity opportunities, I will probably switch HPQ into the Cara 100 next week. My traders will be happier I am giving them the opportunity to trade it.
General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(GE: Google Finance file)
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: Billcara2 chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GE: Value Line Report Jan. 9: next one is due Apr. 10)
Hewlett-Packard [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(HPQ: Google Finance file)
(HPQ: Yahoo Finance file)
(HPQ: StockChart chart)
(HPQ: Billcara2 chart)
(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HPQ: Value Line Report Jan. 9: next one is due Apr. 10)
IBM [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(IBM: Google Finance file)
(IBM: Yahoo Finance file)
(IBM: StockChart chart)
(IBM: Billcara2 chart)
(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(IBM: Value Line Report Jan. 9: next one is due Apr. 10)
Intel [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(INTC: Google Finance file)
(INTC: Yahoo Finance file)
(INTC: StockChart chart)
(INTC: Billcara2 chart)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: Value Line Report Jan. 9: next one is due Apr. 10)
A couple points of interest that caught my eye with these reports: (i) except for INTC, there was quit a difference between the price at the close on Friday this week and the price listed on the Value Line reports, such as GE closed at 16.00 but was shown as 20.85; HPQ closed at 35.58 but was shown as 37.49; and IBM closed at 84.70 but was shown as 81.25, so anybody who is studying quantitative data on the Value Line sheets had better be prepared to re-calculate the percentages, and (ii) the current price is in the ball-park of the lows of the 2000-2002 Bear market, but all the important metrics (revenue, earnings, cash flow and dividends per share) have grown impressively in each case, so it’s safe to say these current prices are far over-sold.
With GE, the 7.75% dividend yield today is superb. Also, the company’s research combo with Google is likely to become a very big deal under President-Elect Obama’s green energy plans. Watch this one closely.
http://www.dailygazette.com/news/2009/jan/10/0110_gegreen/
I don’t have more time to review this, but Value Line has downgraded the stock a bit, and I disagree. Look at the data going back 10 or more years and see the improvement in the key metrics relative to the current share price. It’s a Buy.
The RSI-7 Daily-Weekly-Monthly is 43.14-32.71-13.66. Long-term oriented traders can look at the quality of this company, the solid metrics, the huge dividend yield, and that tasty RSI-7 down at 13. That extremely low Monthly RSI is the most attractive among the DJIA 30 components.
The best time to have been a buyer was in the past six weeks, but don’t look back, look forward to a price of say 26 in the next six months.
Re Hewlett-Packard, it took me a while to warm to cost-cutter CEO Mark Hurd, but I am pleased to say the man has done a terrific job in my view. I like the company more all the time. The Electronic Data Systems acquisition positions HPQ to compete more effectively against IBM in terms of diversified services, and recurring revenues.
The continuous improvement in metrics is quite impressive. With 69% of revenues coming from foreign sources, earnings are negatively impacted by a strong $USD.
Value Line opines, “Top-quality H-P shares are timely, but 3- to 5-year price appreciation potential is unexciting.” Certainly, the low dividend payout is not enticing.
With the Daily-Weekly-Monthly RSI-7 of 58.88-52.11-39.93, the stock is neither an Accumulation or Distribution candidate. I am not trading it anyway.
Speaking of IBM, the Value Line analyst has a take on the shares that I agree with: “IBM shares have some appeal. The issue is timely. And as economies improve and the company continues to trim costs and repurchase stock, share earnings should again start to expand at a double-digit annual pace. That, and a growing dividend, gives these shares good risk-adjusted 3- to 5-year total return potential.
The Daily-Weekly-Monthly RSI-7 is now at 47.47-41.66-29.24, which shows a recent Accumulation Zone (AZ) with Buy Alert. The stock hit a low of 69.50 on 11/21, but any buying under 80 would have been terrific. Even now, long-term oriented traders could look forward to the next drop in the Daily-Weekly RSI-7 to under say 35 to be a buyer.
Intel (INTC) has long been a favorite. I like their dominant industry position. So does Value Line, which also likes the stock price here: “this issue has solid price-recovery potential for the 3 to 5 years ahead. Investors looking to add a technology holding to their portfolio would do well to consider this industry leader.”
I can’t look 3 to 5 years out unless there is a superb dividend payout involved and I’m looking at income. Intel is growing its dividend nicely, and down at a current price of 14.15 is yielding about +4.0%, which is outstanding for this company, but that’s not why I’d be buying the stock.
Being a short-term trader, I’d also wait a bit for additional weakness before jumping in. Since foreign revenues are presently about 84%, I’d also look for a weaker $USD.
The Daily-Weekly-Monthly RSI-7 is now at 41.36-39.77-28.73, which is much like IBM. The stock (currently 14.15) hit a low of 12.06 on 11/21. For long-term oriented traders, I’d like to see the Daily-Weekly RSI-7 drop back to maybe 35 before climbing on board. Patience in difficult markets can overcome adversity. Let the stock prices come to you.
The stock price is back to 2002 and even 1996 price levels and yet the metrics have improved so much since then. So, really, a price in the 13-14 range will be looked back upon in a couple years with a query, “Why didn’t I buy in then?”
Before leaving the DJIA components analysis section, I’d like to make a comment about Wal-Mart (WMT) because long-term community members are starting to catch on to my trading approach. I lay it out for all to see, with examples. I call them my “proof of concept”.
Here below in blocked quotes is what I published in the WIR #45-2008 (Nov 9) about Wal-Mart, but before I do, note that consumer spending the week ending Nov 7 had plunged, and also that WMT closed that week at $54.16, and this week (Jan 9, 2009) the close was $51.58. Here is what I concluded in the Nov. 9 WIR: Today, it, like most consumer stocks is not on my desirables list. The economic data tells you why.
Re Wal-Mart, do you recall my WIR#32 (August 10)?
Wal-Mart is a company many people love to hate, for some reason. For me, it is a member of the Cara 100 and a portfolio core holding, although one that requires adroit buy and sell timing and use of put and call option writes to maintain a suitable Total Return.
I see no reason to say much positive about the stock right now. Certainly I am not bullish in the short run.
You know when I was discussing it as a purchase candidate. You might recall that in the Aug-27-07 WIR, I recommended “parking the family jewels in a Wal-Mart parking lot”. The price closed at $43.63 that week. So why today at $57.86, where you could have sold for $61.00 two weeks ago (a +40.0% capital gain plus the nice dividend), would I be excited about the stock? I’m not.
But if you really want to get an insight into how I think about trading markets, please revert to WIR#6 Feb 10, 2007, when I reviewed WMT off the top (when the price was $47.97). You will see my reasons for why I was buying WMT below 43 much later in the year. You will also see how I opined that the banks were nuts for buying Fortress Investment Group (FIG) at $35. It went to $8 if anybody cares. But I was telling you that the bank analysts had a hate on for Wal-Mart and it was a terrific Cara 100 company.
So who called it? But you knew that already. (LOL)
I love this stuff.
By writing a 60 call you would have taken in another couple bucks in options premium and had the stock that was priced at $57.63 on the Friday close Aug-8. Then the stock worked its way down to a low of $47.40 on Oct-10. How good is that! Proof of concept.
Moreover, on the mid-October dip, you could have written the 40 and 45 puts or gone long the stock or put on any of numerous option trades and made significant profits as the stock worked itself back up to 55-56 in two or three weeks.
Wal-Mart might not be everybody’s favorite shopping place, but WMT makes a great dancing partner.
Today, it, like most consumer stocks is not on my desirables list. The economic data tells you why. But their business model is a good one and the company continues to perform well. With a $15 billion stock buy-back in the works, WMT ought to do well over the next several years. But careful trading of options is going to be required to generate satisfactory profits in the long run.
The Value Line report for WMT is well done (as usual).
Selective timing of entry and exit points supported by put and call option writes at times when risks are down (put writes) and elevated (call writes), plus occasional call purchases when the peer group is experiencing fast markets to the upside; this is how I trade. I trade to accomplish three things: (i) manage risk, (ii) obtain maximum upside, and (iii) earn increasing cash-on-cash return from dividend yield that occurs when the company continuously increases the dividend payout and I continuously reduce the cost basis.
I am a mechanic in that I understand the engine and the road course it has to push that car (portfolio) around to achieve the results I want. I have no time for or interest in listening to the crowd. If I get distracted, I know my performance is going to suffer and I’m possibly going to get fired by the team owner (client).
This isn’t rocket science (bizarre financial products brought to you by the financial services industry). It’s just nuts and bolts trading – with the single objective, to win.
I have always hated losing. I know you get a sense of that when I come up against the no-nothing losers who criticize me.
I love the opportunity to teach others to be winners.
The Dow 30 Company links in chronological order of the upcoming reports.
Alcoa [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(AA: Google Finance file)
(AA: Yahoo Finance file)
(AA: StockChart chart)
(AA: Billcara2 chart)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: Value Line Report Oct. 17: next one is due Jan. 16)
Dupont [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(DD: Google Finance file)
(DD: Yahoo Finance file)
(DD: StockChart chart)
(DD: Billcara2 chart)
(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DD: Value Line Report Oct. 17: next one is due Jan. 16)
Merck [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(MRK: Google Finance file)
(MRK: Yahoo Finance file)
(MRK: StockChart chart)
(MRK: Billcara2 chart)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: Value Line Report Oct. 17: next one is due Jan. 16)
Pfizer [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(PFE: Google Finance file)
(PFE: Yahoo Finance file)
(PFE: StockChart chart)
(PFE: Billcara2 chart)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: Value Line Report Oct. 17: next one is due Jan. 16)
United Technologies [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(UTX: Google Finance file)
(UTX: Yahoo Finance file)
(UTX: StockChart chart)
(UTX: Billcara2 chart)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: Value Line Report Oct 24: next one is due Jan. 23)
Caterpillar [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(CAT: Google Finance file)
(CAT: Yahoo Finance file)
(CAT: StockChart chart)
(CAT: Billcara2 chart)
(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CAT: Value Line Report Oct 24: next one is due Jan. 23)
Coca Cola [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KO: Google Finance file)
(KO: Yahoo Finance file)
(KO: StockChart chart)
(KO: Billcara2 chart)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: Value Line Report Oct. 31: next one is due Jan. 30)
Kraft Foods [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KFT: Google Finance file)
(KFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(KFT: StockChart chart)
(KFT: Billcara2 chart)
(KFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KFT: Value Line Report Oct. 31: next one is due Jan. 30)
Wal-Mart [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(WMT: Google Finance file)
(WMT: Yahoo Finance file)
(WMT: StockChart chart)
(WMT: Billcara2 chart)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: Value Line Report Nov. 7: next one is due Feb. 6)
Disney [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(DIS: Google Finance file)
(DIS: Yahoo Finance file)
(DIS: StockChart chart)
(DIS: Billcara2 chart)
(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DIS: Value Line Report Nov. 14: next one is due Feb. 13)
3M Company [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara US 100 June 25-06]
(MMM: Google Finance file)
(MMM: Yahoo Finance file)
(MMM: StockChart chart)
(MMM: Billcara2 chart)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: Value Line Report Nov. 14: next one is due Feb. 13)
American International Group [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AIG: Google Finance file)
(AIG: Yahoo Finance file)
(AIG: StockChart chart)
(AIG: Billcara2 chart)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: Value Line Report Nov. 21: next one is due Feb. 20)
American Express [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AXP: Google Finance file)
(AXP: Yahoo Finance file)
(AXP: StockChart chart)
(AXP: Billcara2 chart)
(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AXP: Value Line Report Nov. 21: next one is due Feb. 20)
Bank of America [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(BAC: Google Finance file)
(BAC: Yahoo Finance file)
(BAC: StockChart chart)
(BAC: Billcara2 chart)
(BAC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BAC: Value Line Report Nov. 21: next one is due Feb. 20)
Citigroup [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(C: Google Finance file)
(C: Yahoo Finance file)
(C: StockChart chart)
(C: Billcara2 chart)
(C: ADVFN Financial Data)
(C: Value Line Report Nov. 21: next one is due Feb. 20)
JP Morgan [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(JPM: Google Finance file)
(JPM: Yahoo Finance file)
(JPM: StockChart chart)
(JPM: Billcara2 chart)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: Value Line Report Nov. 21: next one is due Feb. 20)
Microsoft [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(MSFT: Google Finance file)
(MSFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(MSFT: StockChart chart)
(MSFT: Billcara2 chart)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: Value Line Report Nov. 21: next one is due Feb. 20)
General Motors [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(GM: Google Finance file)
(GM: Yahoo Finance file)
(GM: StockChart chart)
(GM: Billcara2 chart)
(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GM: Value Line Report Nov. 28: next one is due Feb. 27)
Johnson & Johnson [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(JNJ: Google Finance file)
(JNJ: Yahoo Finance fle)
(JNJ: StockChart chart)
(JNJ: Billcara2 chart)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: Value Line Report Nov. 28: next one is due Feb. 27)
McDonalds [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(MCD: Google Finance file)
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: Billcara2 chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: Value Line Report Dec. 5: next one is due Mar. 6)
Chevron Corp [GICS 10, Dow 30]
(CVX: Google Finance file)
(CVX: Yahoo Finance file)
(CVX: StockChart chart)
(CVX: Billcara2 chart)
(CVX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CVX: Value Line Report Dec. 12: next one is due Mar. 13)
ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(XOM: Google Finance file)
(XOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(XOM: StockChart chart)
(XOM: Billcara2 chart)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: Value Line Report Dec. 12: next one is due Mar. 13)
Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30. Cara 100]
(BA: Google Finance file)
(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: Billcara2 chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BA: Value Line Report Dec. 19: next one is due March 20)
AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(T: Google Finance file)
(T: Yahoo Finance file)
(T: StockChart chart)
(T: Billcara2 chart)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: Value Line Report Dec. 26: next one is due Mar. 27)
Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(VZ: Google Finance file)
(VZ: Yahoo Finance file)
(VZ: StockChart chart)
(VZ: Billcara2 chart)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: Value Line Report Dec. 26: next one is due Mar. 27)
Procter & Gamble Co. [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Google Finance file)
(PG: Yahoo Finance file)
(PG: StockChart chart)
(PG: Billcara2 chart)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: Value Line Report Jan. 2: next one is due Apr. 3)
Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(HD: Google Finance file)
(HD: Yahoo Finance file)
(HD: StockChart chart)
(HD: Billcara2 chart)
(HD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HD: Value Line Report Jan. 2: next one is due Apr. 3)
General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(GE: Google Finance file)
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: Billcara2 chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GE: Value Line Report Jan. 9: next one is due Apr. 10)
Hewlett-Packard [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(HPQ: Google Finance file)
(HPQ: Yahoo Finance file)
(HPQ: StockChart chart)
(HPQ: Billcara2 chart)
(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HPQ: Value Line Report Jan. 9: next one is due Apr. 10)
IBM [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(IBM: Google Finance file)
(IBM: Yahoo Finance file)
(IBM: StockChart chart)
(IBM: Billcara2 chart)
(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(IBM: Value Line Report Jan. 9: next one is due Apr. 10)
Intel [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(INTC: Google Finance file)
(INTC: Yahoo Finance file)
(INTC: StockChart chart)
(INTC: Billcara2 chart)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: Value Line Report Jan. 9: next one is due Apr. 10)
Wrap-up:
I finished early today because today will be a fun day. A group of us are off now to either (i) party off the Rose Island beach, a couple miles to the East of Paradise Island, or (ii) do some drop-off fishing off Andros, which is by far the largest Family Island in The Bahamas in terms of size, but has a very small population base.
Rose Island’s just a superb place to hang on a Sunday afternoon, and re-charge the batteries for the hand-to-hand combat we have to face in the trenches on Monday. But, the weather being perfect, we will likely go to Andros, where it will take us over an hour at high speed each way.
Saturday was terrific weather too. Hopefully, I can get a photo of Pat in my favorite hammock in the palm trees with the hobie cats, wave-runners and parachute flying in the background. I must admit that trying to write the Saturday Report and set up the Sunday WIR is a bit of a challenge living in the midst of beautiful people enjoying life at the world-class Sandals’ resort about 100 feet in front of me.
I’ll manage. It beats the snow.
As for today, it could be either beach or snapper, I have no preference. G&T here I come.
Remember, the traders have returned to the market, and volumes are improving. That usually means higher prices, which I am anticipating his week. I like the action in the oils and precious metals. I like the action in Brazil. There are issues out there, but I don’t believe in the economist nay-sayers.
Gettin’ ready is what I’m doin’.
Also, please review the Cara Bahamas 2009 conference materials, knowing that the early bird gets the worm. For example, this week I booked a flight with a pre-assigned upgraded seat return to Toronto to the PDAC at the beginning of March at a total cost including all taxes and service charges of just C$300.40. Sometimes when I fly, the cost is that one-way.
Independent Financial Advisors who wish to visit that weekend to meet our international team will be pleased to know we have set up a separate luncheon for them on Sat. March 28. They can fly in for the day and not miss a work day.
We are trying to do everything we can to meet the needs of everybody – even the “lurkers” on the blog site who just would like to put faces to the names and nicknames. There’s truly not going to be any pressure on anybody. It’s a tax-deductible learning experience that happens to be held in a winter-friendly semi-tropical beach setting close to North America. We’ll have at least a couple people coming from Australia, and some from Europe, etc. There are non-stop London-Nassau flights, and Miami is just a few minutes away.
If you have any questions, don’t hesitate to ask Jim Watt or Pat Cara. Just use first name last name at caratrading.com. Jim is the Conference Manager.
Have a fine day today. I know I will. It’ll be magic.
