[9:12am ET] This being Father’s Day, I’ll start by expressing my love for my children Stef and Will who don’t always see me on Father’s Day because it seems I am often off somewhere starting a new securities firm. But CTAB (or CTAG as it might soon be called) will be the last one; I promise.
As for the markets, what I can say is that prices continue to fluctuate. [smiley goes here]
A week ago when opining that the market was looking very much like a trading range break-out, up or down, was likely to soon occur, I stated:
I suspect the latter, and have a plan to execute should the equity market take a dip. The pivots seem to be the $USD and $USB. The macro-economic data is looking a bit more positive, but that’s also a case of somebody banging their head against a wall say once or twice a minute rather than 5 or six times. There is a measure of relief, but the action is still painful nonetheless. Green shoots; two hoots. It’s the capital market price and volume data that speaks all to me… We are still mired in a trading range for the S&P 500, still unable to break above the vaunted 950. In the back of my mind, the market may be setting up a trap in order to get lipstick on pigs for second quarter presentation purposes. In that case, the action will likely come from Industrials, Basic Materials, Energy, and finally Gold… Should I see a rally in Gold up to 1000 or slightly above, my thoughts will be that the market is at the peak and it’s going to be a hot and steamy summer with lots of rain, maybe a hurricane or two. Our portfolios will need to be protected.
Options expiry is now over and there are seven sessions left before the end of the 2nd quarter. I suspect there will be an attempted Bull trap coming this week, which could in fact be led by the Great Reflation trade (ie, Industrials, Basic Materials, Energy, and finally Gold).
That’s conjecture really; but it will be crucial to focus on price and volume this coming week. Some traders are saying the sell-off has already started.
Traders who are successful know that it’s the preparation that made it possible. So, let’s get into it. As you do, switch your focus to the longer view – the Monthly price charts – because what’s happening now is that while the Bull is proceeding, the prices are running up against the plunging Moving Average (MA) lines in the Monthly price data series. Technical analysts know that is a major line in the sand. If the long-run Bull is to continue, which is most probably the case, there will have to be some consolidation and testing of the advance to this point. It looks to me like this is the time for that to happen.
Besides, this is a time when the US Congress must take the Obama White Paper on Financial system and Capital Market Reform and begin to pull it apart and start putting forth pieces of proposed legislation they want. After all, it is Congress not the President that legislates – even if when you listen to the man he makes it sound like these important matters move from his impressive voice straight into action. Not so.
So, markets do not like uncertainty, and now that Obama and Geithner have released the framework of their proposed changes to the legislation, now the bipartisan efforts in Congress must be made to work out what the legislators want. That will take time, all of it confrontational and arm-twisting. Because of the stakes, it could get nasty. For sure, it will not be the warm cup of tea around the fireside that Obama has been projecting.
That is not a good time to be bullish in the equity markets.
Global Economics Review
Weekly International Economic Report .
Econoday reported,
All equity indexes with the exception of the Shanghai Composite declined last week as investor trepidations about growth resurfaced. Asian economic data were virtually non-existent while U.S. data continued to show stabilization but not growth. UK data depicted a struggling economy while U.S. data were mixed. Commodity prices continue to gyrate as traders contemplated growth probabilities and their impact on demand. The trajectory of the Chinese economy and its voracious appetite for commodities has become increasingly intertwined with whether higher commodities prices are justified by supply and demand factors.
A key reason for last week’s poor equity performance was uncertainty about financial sector regulation. Proposals for sweeping reforms in the U.S. were swiftly followed up with calls from the Bank of England’s governor for much tighter regulation while the Swiss National Bank called for powers to break up banks thought to be “too big to fail”. The nervousness was heightened when Standard & Poor’s lowered its credit ratings on a number of U.S. banks and the Obama administration unveiled plans to overhaul financial regulation.
On the week, all indexes followed here were down with the exception of the Shanghai Composite. Losses ranged from 1.7 percent (Nasdaq) to 6.3 percent (SET). Both the FTSE and Dow dropped below their yearend level.
Yes, Both the FTSE and DJIA indexes are down year-to-date. So much for passive investing among the green shoots!
Shot down, I’d say.
Here are the key US economic reports on last week’s calendar.
US Empire State Manufacturing Survey for June. Following the data, Econoday reported, “The decline in the Empire State's general business conditions index deepened in June to -9.41 vs. -4.55 in May, but reflects a decline in shipments which fell to -4.84 from 1.29. New orders, which point to future shipments, were roughly unchanged at -8.15 from -9.01 -- which is about the best news to be found in the report's readings for current conditions. Month-to-month contraction in unfilled orders is steady at -10.34 vs. -10.23 with the rate of destocking picking up a bit to -25.29 vs. -21.59. Contraction in employment is deep at -21.84, but shows a bit of an improvement from -23.86 in May and is noticeably better from April's -28.09. Prices paid continues to contract month-to-month but at a slower pace, at -5.75 vs. -11.36 in a mild reflection of rising energy and commodity prices… Future conditions actually offer good news as companies look for improvement ahead, with the 6-month outlook for general business conditions up 4 points to 47.81. They also see employment rising, with a reading of 10.34 vs. 9.09… But actual improvement won't be evident until current new orders pick up and destocking comes to an end. Still, readings in this report are far better than they were in March and, like other surveys, do suggest that the deepest part of the manufacturing recession has passed.”
US Housing Starts for May. Econoday opined after the data release, “Housing starts in May showed surprising strength-even in the single-family component. Starts rebounded 17.2 percent, following sharp 12.9 percent drop the month before. The May pace of 0.532 million units annualized was down 45.2 percent year-on-year and was above the market projection for 0.500 million units. The rebound in May was led by the multifamily component which posted a 61.7 percent comeback after falling 49.4 percent in April. But the single-family component gained 7.5 percent, following a 3.3 percent rise the month before… By region, the rebound in starts was led by a monthly 28.6 percent surge in the West. Other regions also saw gains with the South up 16.8 percent, the Midwest rising 11.1 percent, and the Midwest gaining 2.0 percent… Permits also made a comeback, gaining 4.0 percent in May after slipping 2.5 percent the month before. The May permit pace of 0.518 million units annualized was down 47.0 percent on a year-ago basis… Markets had expected some rebound in the multifamily component in starts but the increase was notably more than expected. But the really good news was the sizeable rise in the single-family component. This is good news for the green shoots advocates and should provide lift to equities. But before equity markets open in the U.S., we have to get past the industrial production release at 9:15 a.m. ET.”
US Industrial Production for May. After the data, Econoday reported, “Industrial production in April fell 0.5 percent, following March's 1.7 percent plunge. However, the manufacturing component declined a more moderate 0.3 percent, following a 2.1 percent fall the month before. Overall capacity utilization in April continued its downtrend, slipping to 69.1 percent from 69.4 percent in March. Looking ahead, we are likely to see another decline in industrial production as motor vehicle assemblies are still under pressure from lackluster sales and bankruptcies at Chrysler and GM. Markets should give attention to industrial production excluding motor vehicles, which declined 0.5 percent in April. Weakness is still expected in May as production worker hours from the employment report showed a 2.1 percent drop for the month in manufacturing. Major manufacturing survey headline numbers for May also came in below the breakeven points for their respective surveys: 42.8 for ISM, minus 22.6 for Philly Fed, and minus 4.6 for the Empire State survey.” You’ll recall how bad the European data was a week ago.
US Producer Price Index for May. After the data, Econoday reported, “Manufacturing fell significantly further in May with declines widespread. Industrial production in May dropped 1.1 percent, following a 0.7 percent fall in April. The May decrease was close to the consensus forecast for a 1.0 percent plunge. The manufacturing component dropped 1.0 percent after declining 0.6 percent the prior month. For the other major non-manufacturing components, utilities in May fell 1.4 percent while mining output decreased 2.1 percent… Overall, the largest source of weakness was motor vehicles & parts which plunged 7.9 percent after slipping 1.2 percent in April. Excluding motor vehicles, industrial production decreased 0.9 percent after a 0.7 percent fall in April. Manufacturing ex autos fell 0.6 percent in May, matching the prior month's decrease… Overall capacity utilization in May fell further into new record territory, dropping to 68.3 percent from 69.0 percent in April. The May rate was marginally lower than the market forecast for 68.4 percent and once more set an historical low for this series which goes back to 1967… On a year-on-year basis, industrial production in May worsened to down 13.4 percent from down 12.7 percent the prior month… Overall, the industrial production numbers were in line with expectations and should not offset the positive news in housing starts and producer prices. The industrial production report should be a neutral for the markets, leaving intact likely positive effects on equities from the earlier reports. But for broader perspective, manufacturing outside of autos maintained a moderate decline, still basically a neutral outcome relative to expectations. Manufacturing is still in contraction but not at a worsening pace.”
US Consumer Price Index for May. After the data release, Econoday reported, “In May, consumer price inflation was tame despite higher energy costs. The headline CPI edged up to a 0.1 percent increase, following no change in April. A 0.2 percent decline in food prices helped to offset a 0.2 percent gain in energy costs for May. The latest numbers came in lower than the market forecast for a 0.3 percent boost. Meanwhile, core CPI inflation eased to a 0.1 percent rise in May, after jumping 0.3 the prior month. The consensus had expected a 0.1 percent rise for the core. Within the core, components were mixed. The indexes for shelter, new and used motor vehicles, and medical care posted increases, while the public transportation index fell 1.0 percent and the indexes for apparel and tobacco declined slightly… Energy rebounded 0.2 percent in May after a 2.4 percent fall the month before. The boost in energy costs was due to a 3.1 percent gain in gasoline prices after a 2.8 percent drop in April. Heating oil declined 1.8 percent while piped gas and electricity fell 3.1 percent… On a year-ago basis, headline inflation eased to down 1.0 percent (seasonally adjusted) in May from down 0.6 percent in April. Meanwhile, the core rate slipped to up 1.8 percent from up 1.9 percent the prior month. On an unadjusted year-ago basis, the headline number was down 1.3 percent in May while the core was up 1.8 percent… Today's CPI report is good news for the Fed and the bond markets. Energy costs are up but not as much as feared and the core is rising at a modest pace. While the bond market will like the report, equities are focusing on company news with FedEx reporting negative news and weighing on equities.”
US Jobless Claims for the week of June 13. After the data release, Econoday reported, “Unemployment claims are showing tangible but not dramatic improvement in the jobs market. First-time jobless claims, at 608,000 in the June 13 week, were in line with most expectations, up 3,000 from the prior week which was revised 4,000 higher to 605,000. But the four-week average fell 7,000 to 615,750 for its lowest level since the beginning of the year. A mid-month to mid-month comparison with May, which is useful to gauge change in the household survey of the monthly employment report, shows a 28,000 improvement in the week and a 14,000 improvement in the four-week average… Continuing claims show special progress, down a sizable 148,000 to 6.687 million to end a very long streak of increases dating back to the very beginning of the year. Also improving was the unemployment rate for insured workers, down 1 tenth to 5.0 percent and offering a signal that the overall unemployment rate, at 9.4 percent, may also be coming down in what would be a major development for the economic outlook and global markets… But one week's data is not a month of data, making for a very limited initial response though demand for Treasuries is slipping with demand for oil and other commodities on the rise. The results may give the stock market a slight lift and they are certain to spark fresh talk of green shoots.”
US Leading Indicators for May. After the release, Econoday reported, “The Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators jumped 1.2 percent in May to exceed the revised 1.1 percent jump in April that ended a long run of declines. These results, along with the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing survey also released at 10:00 ET, point to economic leveling followed by slow recovery in the months ahead. A slowing in delivery times led May's gains in the index, though supply managers are warning that tighter delivery conditions reflect capacity cutbacks in shipping and warehousing as much as rising demand for goods. Gains in equities and money supply were also big positives as were building permits and consumer expectations. But the second biggest positive was the steepening in the yield curve which reflects lower investment demand for long Treasuries on concerns of inflation and the risk of Fed rate hikes. Note that higher long rates will act to limit economic improvement. This morning's data, including jobless claims, add substantially to the green shoot camp and will increase talk that government stimulus, whether monetary or fiscal, may have to be withdrawn or limited sooner than later.” I believe there are much better indicators for this particular data set.
US Philadelphia Fed Survey for June. Following the data release, Econoday reported, “Month-to-month change in the manufacturing sector may be very close to leveling out, according to the Philadelphia Fed's business activity index which, at -2.2 in June, shows great improvement from prior levels including May's -22.6 reading. Month-to-month contraction in new orders slowed substantially, to -4.8 vs. -25.9 in May. Negative readings indicate continued month-to-month contraction, but readings for June show that contraction is much less severe. Until today's results, this report had been lagging improvement in the ISM national reading for the manufacturing sector. Now both are pointing to steady conditions in the very near future… But contraction in factory employment remains severe, at -21.8 for this survey vs. -26.8 in May. Employment is is almost certain to lag improvement elsewhere by a significant degree as manufacturers hold off on new hirings until production capacity starts getting squeezed. Shipments actually rose in the month, up 2.1 as more respondents reported a rise in month-to-month shipments than a decline. Destocking is continuing but to a less significant degree, at -15.3 vs. -28.6. Prices continue to contract but at a slower rate, a reflection of increases underway for fuel. Contraction in prices paid slowed to -13.0 vs. -22.8 while contraction in prices received slowed to -16.6 vs. -33.8… More good news is found in the 6-month outlook where the general business conditions index rose more than 10 points to 60.1. Respondents also see employment picking up six months down the road, to 12.8 vs. 10.0. Equities rose and demand for the safety of Treasuries fell in immediate reaction to the report.”
US Existing Home Sales data for May. Ahead of the data, Econoday reported, “New home sales in April nudged back up 0.3 percent after declining 3.0 percent the month before. New home sales came in at an annual 352,000 rate, down 34.0 percent on a year-ago basis. Supply, down 4.2 percent for the month to 297,000 units and the lowest level in eight years, came in at 10.1 months supply compared to 10.6 and 10.8 in the prior two months. Looking ahead, sales may get a boost from the first-time home buyer tax credit.”
US New Home Sales for May. Econoday opined before the data release, “Housing starts in May showed surprising strength-even in the single-family component. Starts rebounded 17.2 percent, following sharp 12.9 percent drop the month before. The May pace of 0.532 million units annualized was down 45.2 percent year-on-year and was above the market projection for 0.500 million units. The rebound in May was led by the multifamily component which posted a 61.7 percent comeback after falling 49.4 percent in April. But the single-family component gained 7.5 percent, following a 3.3 percent rise the month before… By region, the rebound in starts was led by a monthly 28.6 percent surge in the West. Other regions also saw gains with the South up 16.8 percent, the Midwest rising 11.1 percent, and the Midwest gaining 2.0 percent… Permits also made a comeback, gaining 4.0 percent in May after slipping 2.5 percent the month before. The May permit pace of 0.518 million units annualized was down 47.0 percent on a year-ago basis… Markets had expected some rebound in the multifamily component in starts but the increase was notably more than expected. But the really good news was the sizeable rise in the single-family component. This is good news for the green shoots advocates and should provide lift to equities. But before equity markets open in the U.S., we have to get past the industrial production release at 9:15 a.m. ET.”
US Durable Goods Orders for May. In advance of the data, Econoday reported, “Durable goods orders rebounded a revised 1.7 percent in April, following a 2.2 percent drop in March. Excluding the transportation component, new durables orders gained a revised 0.4 percent after declining 2.8 percent the month before. The rebound in new orders was broad-based. Manufacturing surveys have been mixed on new orders. The ISM new orders index crossed into positive territory in May, rising to 51.1 from 47.2 the month before. New orders indexes for the Philly Fed and New York Fed have been improving but remained just below break even in May and June.”
US FOMC Meeting announcement. Ahead of the news, Econoday opined, “The FOMC announcement for the June 23-24 FOMC policy meeting is expected to leave the fed funds target range unchanged at zero to 0.25 percent-a range remaining since being put in place at the December 2008 policy meeting. Market focus will be on comments in the statement about the status of the economy and whether there are any changes in the Fed's goals for balance sheet purchases. Lately, the Fed has been aggressive with its purchases of longer-term Treasuries, agency debt securities, and mortgage-backed securities.”
US GDP final report for 1Q09. Before the data release, Econoday reported, “GDP growth for first quarter GDP in the Commerce Department's first revision was bumped up to a 5.7 percent annualized decline from the initial estimate of a 6.1 percent contraction. The upward revision was primarily due to less negative inventories and a smaller decline in exports. On the inflation front, the GDP price index was revised to an annualized 2.8 percent increase which was incrementally lower than the initial estimate of 2.9 percent.”
US Jobless Claims for the week of June 20. Ahead of the data release, Econoday reported, “Initial jobless claims edged up 3,000 in the June 13 week to 608,000, a level reflecting a recent trend of slowing the rate of job losses. More importantly, continuing claims broke its string of record highs going back to early January. Continuing claims were down a sizable 148,000 to 6.687 million.”
US Personal Income and Outlays for May. Prior to the release, Econoday reported, “Personal income jumped 0.5 percent in April, following a 0.2 percent fall in March. However, the spike in personal income was led by an 8.6 percent surge in unemployment insurance benefits. In contrast, the wages and salaries component was unchanged, after a sharp 0.6 percent plunge in March. Consumer spending continued to retrench with a 0.1 percent dip in April. PCE inflation was mixed with the headline PCE price index edging up 0.1 percent while the core PCE price index firmed to a 0.3 percent boost. Looking ahead, the wages & salaries component is likely to slip further as weekly earnings declined 0.2 percent in May. Spending should be up, however, based on a 0.5 percent boost in retail sales for May. Look for soft PCE inflation numbers-both the headline and core CPI rose only 0.1 percent for the month.”
US Consumer Sentiment for June. Ahead of the end-of-month data release, Econoday reported, “The Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index for mid-June edged only 3 tenths higher to 69.0. Expectations, which have been driving consumer measurements sharply higher for the last two months, actually fell back in this report, down 4 points to 65.4 for the first decline since February. But now the good news, the assessment of current conditions, which has been flat, jumped nearly 7 points to 74.5. Looking ahead, the consumer has had mixed news to soak in. Initial jobless claims are down but unemployment is up due to higher continuing jobless claims. The stock market has retreated modestly and gasoline prices are taking a bigger bite out of the budget.”
Note that I put much time and effort into organizing and summarizing Econoday’s informative, concise, and objective reports because they actually teach people something that can be used in trading decisions. You must agree that Econoday does a stand-out job.
I leave the links in because, when published, the individual reports contain terrific charts and other information. When I think it is important, I try to add comments, but for the most part, Econoday does an exceptionally fine job.
Summary for the International equity market ETFs
Among the international ETFs this week, the whole lot were down. Japan (EWJ -0.9%) was best off, while India (IFN -12.1%) was worst hit, with Russia (RSX -9.7%), Brazil (EWZ -6.5%) and China (GXC -6.3%) next worst. These are significant moves, and follow the concerns of analysts that market momentum is quickly rolling over.
In a developing bear phase, it is almost always the case that the riskiest markets are the first to cave in. The world of money is quite small, and getting smaller by the day. There are billions of dollars, euro, yen, etc, that will move in a heart-beat today.
I stated here two weeks ago, “Unless the Daily RSI’s start breaking down here, the rally could continue. But the point is that this market is very overheated”. It remains hot, so it will pay to focus… In that regard, all ETN’s dropped on Friday, except for France, which gained +0.05%..”
This week, those RSI-7 numbers dropped even more. Friday happened to be an up day for all these country ETFs (except China), so watch Monday morning in the overseas markets and the follow-through with the ETFs in New York. Any further decline in the RSI-7 will put serious pressure on the Bulls.
US Equity Markets Review
This week the S&P 500 (-2.64% to 921.23), DJIA (-2.94% to 8539.73), and NASDAQ (-1.69% to 1827.47) all sank despite to a Friday morning bump. And the Russell 2000 small caps (-2.68% to 512.72) was down a second week in a row.
That’s two speed wobbles in three weeks.
So, nothing’s changed. It’s still Buyer Beware at this point. Until the S&P 500 drops decisively through 920 or closes modestly below it for three consecutive days, we still believe the market is in a trading range, albeit with a little more indication that prices are having difficulty holding up.
NASDAQ Composite ino.com chart
NASDAQ Composite stockcharts.com chart
Here is the list of the ten highest-weighted non-financial stocks in the NASDAQ Composite. Put them in a watchlist (see Google Finance Portfolio) and watch them like a hawk:
AAPL MSFT GOOG QCOM RIMM CSCO INTC ORCL GILD EBAY
Daily RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10
Weekly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10
Monthly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10
Three of these are now in the DJIA 30, and perhaps two or three more ought to be. Google and Apple, for instance, are more relevant to America in this Millennium than say DuPont or American Express, among others I could name.
Besides, isn’t it about time that these separate markets converge under a single management and a single public regulator. They need to be more of a regulated public utility than a series of for-profit marketing companies that add little real value other than price discovery. As it is, they are bloated and costly to all but the HB&B insiders who control them.
The world needs competition; but only when the product being produced is a value add.
Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market
Here’s the SPY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
SPY Monthly data: 
SPY Weekly data: 
SPY Daily data: 
The tables I show are for eleven GICS Sector Index Funds (ETF’s), including two for Technology (XLK and SMH), for a total of ten GICS sectors. They cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.
Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.
SPY XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF XLK SMH IYZ XLU .
You can also add more ETFs - up to 30 in total. For a list of components to many ETFs, go to the AMEX.com and NYSE.com web sites, and click on ETFs.
10 (energy: XLE) 
15 (basic materials: XLB) 
20 (industrial: XLI) 
25 (consumer discretionary: XLY) 
30 (consumer staples: XLP) 
35 (healthcare: IYH) 
40 (financial: XLF) 
45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH) 
50 (telecom: IYZ) 
55 (utilities: XLU) 
Individual Sector ETF Review
For these charts, at points in time when I think that market conditions might be changing, I’ll switch from RSI-7 to the more sensitive (but similarly constructed) indicator called Stochastics. These charts include the %K (fast) and %D (slow) stochastics.
Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)
Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLE Monthly data: 
XLE Weekly data: 
XLE Daily data: Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
The Crude Oil price dropped -$2.73/bbl this week to close at 70.02.
The sector ETF (XLE) plunged -8.04% W/W to close the week at 49.21, which was the worst performing sector.
A week ago, I gave a heads-up when I remarked, “XLE was 3rd best performer, and Crude soared +4.31/bbl…At the same time, the $USD fell -0.61% W/W, which helped contribute to the rise in the oil price… I noted some weakness in Exxon (XOM) as well, although the stock was up +1.1% W/W and held up +0.4% on Friday when the rest were getting hit.”
This week, Exxon (XOM) dropped -3.70% W/W and Chevron plunged -6.34%.
From a technical and fundamental perspective, I think the Oils are the most vulnerable on the board should the S&P 500 not hold the 920 support over the next week or two.
Suncor (SU -12,9%) was crushed as that is a company that needs 70 dollar oil or better in the Western Cdn oil sands.
China National Offshore (CEO) was down -11.3% and Apache (APA) -10.5% W/W.
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada
Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)
Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLB Monthly data:
XLB Weekly data:
Table 3: Senior Basic Materials:
XLB Daily data:
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Basic Materials (XLB) this week plunged -6.96% W/W to close at 26.07.
Not even Friday’s weak $USD (-0.34%) helped hold up XLB.
The winner in this group this week was Nucor Steel (NUE -1.7%), but there were some major losses here, such as Rio Tinto (RTP -17.9%), oil pipe steelmaker Tenaris (TS -11.4%), and Teck (TCK -9.5%) were hammered.
Like the oils, the basic materials suffered because there are renewed concerns that economic recovery hopes for this year are probably too optimistic.
Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)
Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLI Monthly data: 
XLI Weekly data: 
XLI Daily data:
Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation:
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Industrials (XLI -5.89% W/W to 22.20) was 3rd worst performer, which means that the three most commodity-price sensitive sectors were 1-2-3 most hit this week.
XLI dropped from best performing sector out of 10 two weeks ago to 2nd worst one week ago and 3rd worst this week.
The best company stock performer of the lot was 3M (MMM -2.7%) and that was a sizeable loss. The serious losers were Textron (TXT -16.5%), Caterpillar (CAT -10.8%) and General Electric (GE -10.4%).
Think about the size of these losses in so-called blue-chip companies when your financial advisor recommends you investing 100% of your funds in the equity market today.
And think about the pundits, including politicians in the Senate Banking Committee, who have taken note at how far the passive equity market indexes have come from the lows of March. These are people who still think a stock is a certificate you can stick in your drawer.
Ask them if it’s true that Exxon, Chevron, GE, Caterpillar, Alcoa, Dupont, Boeing and Disney, some of the biggest companies in the world, had their stock price clipped by an average -6.1% this week while the Senators were getting cozy with Geithner, the Fed and Wall Street. Ask them why you should be investing in this market at all?
I’ll say it again; watch the Obama ratings drop if, as and when the DJIA plunges and unemployment continues to skyrocket.
The only effective way out of this mess is to take the $USD down, down and down, so that asset prices, like gold, real estate and share prices, appear to be more valuable, which inflates the confidence of bankers, workers, and shoppers. In other words, reflate and hope for a miracle.
A lower dollar of course will really mean more pain for the average American – at the foodstore, fill-up station, traveling abroad, purchasing goods made abroad, and so forth.
At least with a lower $USD, the Energy, Basic Materials and Industrials ought to out-perform the bankers and retailers.
Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)
Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLY Monthly data: 
XLY Weekly data: 
XLY Daily data:
Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Consumer Discretionary (XLY -3.06% W/W to 23.13) was the fourth best performing sector this week, and it was hammered. Carnival Cruise (CCL +10.1%) was one of the few winners and it was well up on earnings. JC Penny (JCP -8.8%) took back much of the previous week’s gains (+11.4%).
As I remarked a week ago, “Share prices can only go so far on ‘green shoots’. Stores need to see the green color of money.”
Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)
Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLP Monthly data: 
XLP Weekly data: 
XLP Daily data:
Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Consumer Staples (XLP -2.68% W/W) closed the week at 22.89.
Diageo (DEO +4.1%) was also up +3.7% a week ago. But, Perdigao the Brazilian packaged meat producer (PDA -8.6%) was smashed after being up +4.2% a week earlier.
Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)
Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
IYH Monthly data: 
IYH Weekly data: 
IYH Daily data:
Table 7: Senior healthcare equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
The Healthcare sector (IYH +2.02% W/W) closed at 53.60, which was the only winning sector this week.
A week ago I reported, “the financially related healthcare companies United Health, Aetna and Wellpoint got hammered (UNH -10.7%, AET -9.6% and WPT -2.3%).” This week, these insurers must have liked the Obama healthplan because prices soared (UNH +5.0%, AET +12.7% and WPT +9.0%).
Myriad Genetics (MYGN -1.3%) was one of the few losers (again).
Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)
Here’s the XLF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLF Monthly data: 
XLF Weekly data: 
XLF Daily data:
Table 8: Senior financial company equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
This week, Financials (XLF -3.60% to 12.04) was a mid-pack performer.
JP Morgan (JPM -0.4%) did relatively well thanks to Treasury Secretary Teflon Tim Geithner boosting the Jamie Dimon directed Fed in his testimony (read promotion) to the Senate and the House committees that will soon start crafting their own bills, now that Obama’s Administration have had their kick at the can. Remember, the President never writes the legislation, and the Senator and House just could be mad enough at Geithner to tell him to take a long walk on a short plank.
The damage in the Financials this week came from the Swiss, Saudi and German banks (UBS -10.7%), Citigroup (:-) (C -8.7%) and Deutsche Bank (DB -7.6%). You see, they don’t have the Goldman clout in Treasury or the JP Morgan clout at the Fed.
Daily charts of electronic brokers and exchanges
Weekly charts of electronic brokers and exchanges
Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)
Tech (XLK -1.41% to 18.12) and Semi-conductors (SMH -1.11% to 21.39) had varying performance again this week. Big day Friday, but not enough to lift the W/W percentages.
Among tech stocks, Apple (AAPL +1.8%) and Hewlett Packard (HPQ +1.6%) were winners, but RIM (RIMM -12.3%) and Juniper (JNPR -6.1%) were not.
It could be that AAPL got its strength from a new liver for Steve Jobs. Amazing how that’s not considered an unreported material event at the days leading up to the operation, instead of the shareholders being told of it a couple months later. Would it be too personal to tell the shareholders if Mr. Jobs had died? Where do they draw the line? Shades of Howard Hughes; did that man really die in airspace 6 miles right above the Mexico-US border, or was this another ploy by lawyers to have their cake and eat it too? Obviously, I think Apple had a corporate responsibility to shareholders, bankers, employees, vendors, customers. They shirked it because they believe that Mr. Jobs is bigger than the universe.
Among the semi-conductors, only Texas Instruments (TXN +4.2%) was up. Now TXN is up +10.1% over two weeks and +20.6% over four. But the rest of this industry looks awful, and the semi’s are supposed to be leading the Bull higher, right? Well, this week, there were many losers, culminating in Advanced Micro Devices left behind (AMD -13.4%).
Here’s the SMH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
SMH Monthly data: 
SMH Weekly data: 
SMH Daily data:
Here’s the XLK Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLK Monthly data: 
XLK Weekly data: 
XLK Daily data: 
Table 9: Senior technology equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)
Telecom (IYZ -4.32% to 17.70) was hammered. A week ago, IYZ jumped +3.06% and I remarked that it was 2nd best sector performer.
But a rather large cap AT&T (T -3.9%) pulled the index down.
Verizon (VZ -0.9%) was down a relative small amount on the week.
A week ago with Telecom up +3.06% and Utilities (XLU) up +3.91%, for sector performers 1 and 2, I remarked,
“But doesn’t that give you a clue to what’s happening in the market. Utilities and Telecom don’t lead markets higher; they are dividend plays, which compete for traders’ interests in the income space against fixed income securities. Traders must feel the latter are becoming too risky or that the low interest yields are not attractive or not sustainable… What’s changed this week? It was only last week, I stated that Telecom was a lagging performer that week, and also down over 4 weeks and YTD… Two weeks ago, about VZ, I asked, “What’s going to happen when interest rates rise? It’s not as if this company is debt-free.” I added, “I think T is in the same boat… Interest rates are rising quickly by the way.”… So here’s the deal. The US Treasury has a massive need for capital and the Fed and other central banks in the world helped out by buying at least half of the new bond offerings in order to keep those rates down, not wanting to scare global traders. Yields on the 5- and 10-year US Treasury Notes dropped -4 basis points W/W and TLT, the 20-year ETF, lifted 13 cents (+0.14%) because of a big move (+0.90%) on Friday. So, on Friday the Telecom (IYZ) and Utilities (XLU) made big gains of +0.54% and +1.26% respectively. Telecom would have had a much bigger move, but by Thursday, IYZ was already up +2.50% on the week… We played the interest rate move by selling our TBT in advance and buying the TLT, which caught the move. But, honestly, do many of you really believe that interest rates are going to fall much further, and that $GOLD is going to collapse. This is the era of the Great Reflation. Even the semi-conductor industry CEO’s are saying there are orders coming in. Money is moving. After all, governments poured trillions into the financial system. Somebody – meaning you and me – will have to pay for that in the form of higher interest rates and prices of real assets at some point… No, I am not a buyer of telecom or utilities. It’s not economic boom times yet; just some grease for the skids, which can only take the IYZ so far without the support of higher earnings and dividends.”
This Tuesday through Thursday, the Treasury is coming with a record offering of 2-, 5- and 7-year Notes. Ought to be interesting to see how much the Fed has to take down in order to keep rates low.
Just might have an impact on the telcos.
Here’s the IYZ Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
IYZ Monthly data: 
IYZ Weekly data: 
IYZ Daily data:
Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)
Here’s the XLU Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLU Monthly data: 
XLU Weekly data: 
XLU Daily data:
Utilities (XLU +3.91%) closed at 28.18.
A week ago I remarked, “There was little of note except for maybe NGG, which dropped -7.3% W/W.” This week, XLU was the top performing sector and the only loser here was NGG (-1.5% W/W).
A week ago, for some reason that baffles even me and I am the one writing this stuff, I got hung up on National Grid (NGG).
Three weeks ago I wrote here after a big gain in NGG, “if there were put and call options in NGG, I’d say write in-or-close-to-the-money calls to reduce your cost base and hopefully have the stock gets taken away from you.” Two weeks ago, I added, “You probably would have made a nice gain with the stock being called.” Then, a week ago, I wrote, “the market laid the hammer down. Ka-ching!” NGG (44.40) needs to work through the down cycle, before catching up. There is a rising 50d MA (42.03) and a falling 200d MA (47.26), but the latest cycle high of 48.40 proved too tough a resistance level, and now the price has to test the recent low of 35.37. So the 50d MA (42.03) is the first test of support, and that would be a -50% retracement of the last Bull run. At that point, the Bulls and Bears will fight. We’ll then have to see whether NGG can rally or whether the it and the broad market decides to fall back to primary support.
I don’t trade it btw, but I montor it and the other Utilities, looking for tidbits of info that can be picked up here and there. I’m not even keen on NGG, but after a couple weeks when it was breaking to the upside and outperforming the other Utilities, I decided to watch it for a couple weeks. Now we have seen the opposite move. It’s important to see what happens next because that’s going to be another clue to where the sector and the market is headed.
NGG is an interesting company because it’s a Utility play in both the UK and US markets. So, when the economy turns north, this is one that ought to be a favorite of the income oriented crowd. It’s presently yielding 7.90%, so the lower the price drops, the higher that yield will be. Also, the one broker that rates it has the stock as a 1.0 (best) on a scale of 1 to 5. Unfortunately there are no options.
The very next day, ie, last Monday, the Bulls stepped up by holding the low at 43.01, just above the 50d MA, which closed this week at 42.69, and shot the price to a high on Friday of 46.18, closing at 45.70 (+2.9% W/W).
So, with rates falling again this week, the Utility sector is still hanging in, with a third place showing of the ten sectors.
I noted that TransCanada Pipelines (TRP or TRAP as we call it) was hammered -9.4% W/W, which is a lot for a stable operator like this one.
Here is the list of North American Utilities that I follow:
AEP D DUK ED EXC FE FPL NGG PCG PEG SO TRP
For study purposes, there is a good mix of electric (AEP, D, DUK, FE, FPL and SO), gas (NGG, TRP) and diversified (ED, EXC, PCG, PEG) utilities.
Table 12: US Utilities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Bonds & Yields Review
Table 10: US Treasury Yields
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Month | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| 6 Month | 0.30 | 0.31 | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| 2 Year | 1.20 | 1.25 | 1.27 | 0.83 |
| 3 Year | 1.81 | 1.86 | 1.89 | 1.29 |
| 5 Year | 2.79 | 2.83 | 2.78 | 2.02 |
| 10 Year | 3.77 | 3.82 | 3.79 | 3.19 |
| 30 Year | 4.51 | 4.60 | 4.64 | 4.14 |
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2yr AA | 1.58 | 1.14 | 1.31 | 1.14 |
| 2yr AAA | 1.27 | 1.07 | 1.42 | 1.04 |
| 2yr A | 2.32 | 2.12 | 2.16 | 1.95 |
| 5yr AAA | 2.52 | 2.26 | 2.36 | 1.82 |
| 5yr AA | 2.68 | 2.39 | 2.44 | 2.09 |
| 5yr A | 3.15 | 2.62 | 2.75 | 2.40 |
| 10yr AAA | 3.53 | 3.65 | 3.70 | 3.15 |
| 10yr AA | 3.58 | 3.58 | 3.65 | 3.24 |
| 10yr A | 4.57 | 4.11 | 4.24 | 3.45 |
| 20yr AAA | 5.25 | 5.50 | 4.87 | 4.77 |
| 20yr AA | 5.48 | 5.48 | 5.47 | 4.75 |
| 20yr A | 5.40 | 5.07 | 5.02 | 4.70 |
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2yr AA | 2.53 | 2.56 | 2.33 | 2.14 |
| 2yr A | 3.24 | 3.44 | 3.35 | 3.41 |
| 5yr AAA | 3.23 | 3.28 | 3.23 | 3.01 |
| 5yr AA | 4.37 | 4.39 | 3.93 | 3.73 |
| 5yr A | 5.15 | 5.17 | 4.68 | 4.39 |
| 10yr AAA | 4.58 | 4.65 | 4.76 | 4.53 |
| 10yr AA | 5.46 | 5.32 | 5.26 | 4.72 |
| 10yr A | 6.35 | 6.31 | 5.79 | 5.52 |
| 20yr AAA | 6.09 | 6.09 | 6.06 | 6.35 |
| 20yr AA | 5.58 | 5.58 | 5.55 | 5.84 |
| 20yr A | 6.27 | 6.26 | 6.24 | 6.53 |
The 20-year Treasury Bonds (TLT +1.91% W/W to close at 91.69) lifted for a second straight week. With the previous Friday’s gain of +0.90%; the gain is almost +3.0% over six days.
The 30-, 10- and 5- year yields closed the week at 4.51, 3.77, and 2.79, respectively, from 4.64, 3.83, and 2.83 percent two weeks ago, so these yields have not moved much.
The T-Bill yield closed the week down at 0.150, up from 0.140, which is insignificant.
Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.
Interest rates and bond yields.
Interactive Daily data charts:
Interactive Chart of Interest rates and bond yields.
This chart is stunning to long-term observers of the debt markets.
US Bond Funds -- Interactive Monthly Data Charts SHY Monthly data series chart:
IEF Monthly data series chart:
TLT Monthly data series chart:
AGG Monthly data series chart:
LQD Monthly data series chart:
TIP Monthly data series chart:
US Bond Funds -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts SHY Weekly data series chart:
IEF Weekly data series chart:
TLT Weekly data series chart:
AGG Weekly data series chart:
LQD Weekly data series chart:
TIP Weekly data series chart:
US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts SHY Daily data series chart:
IEF Daily data series chart:
TLT Daily data series chart:
AGG Daily data series chart:
LQD Daily data series chart:
TIP Daily data series chart:
Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
I’ll continue to state: No further comment on Fannie and Freddie, at least until politicians stop taking election campaign money in return for votes and committee support. It’s disgusting what those reprobates get away with.
Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts
Mortgage Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
Commodities Review
The $CRB index stumbled, falling -3.61% to 252.79. There was also a loss of -1.47% on the previous Friday, so in six days, there was a loss of -5.1%. Until then prices had been red hot and I had remarked that “At some point there ought to be a rally in the $USD, which would put the chill in these hot prices.”
A week ago, oil and copper soared, while all the precious metals dropped a bit. But this week, they all were hammered.
The 50d MA for $CRB is now at 240.97, which is rising, but still well below the present price.
The 200-day MA has dropped from 326.18 to 245.87 over the past 18 weeks.
Although I use the $CRB (Reuters/Jeffries Index), principally because it’s the oldest, there are many commodity indexes: http://www.crbtrader.com/crbindex/ • Astmax Commodity Index(AMCI) • Commin Commodity Index • Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index • Goldman Sachs Commodity Index • Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index • Rogers International Commodity Index • Standard & Poor's Commodity Index • NCDEX Commodity Index • Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index (DBLCI) • UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index (CMCI)
Here is a link to an article that discusses the major ones that have been around for a while: http://www.rogersrawmaterials.com/overviewandanalysis.PDF
Here is a current price summary of the heaviest weighted commodities contracts: http://money.cnn.com/data/commodities/
These indexes change their component weightings perhaps annually or even monthly, for example: http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/43586-the-new-generation-of-diversif... http://tinyurl.com/a5myfj
Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:
Oil Review
This week, $WTIC sank -$2.73/bbl (-3.75%) to close at 70.02. The psychological 70 level was sliced through like a hot knife through butter on the way up. Now we have to see whether previous weak resistance will become weak support.
For $WTIC, the 50d MA is at 60.17, up in five weeks from 51.85.
The 200d MA is now down to 58.94 from 64.84 five weeks ago, down from 80.84 just thirteen weeks ago.
Until this week, I had not changed my views on Oil for many months. We are now selling and ready to go short if technical support does not hold up.
Here is the e-miNY Dec-07 Crude Oil chart.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:
Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:
Gold & Precious Metals Review
Previously, $GOLD pulled back by -$40.10/oz after rallying into the 989-990 range a week ago.” This week, $GOLD gave back a further -$4.70/oz to close at 934.50, but there is a different feel to this market, as in it now looks ready to pop from a flat base.
The gold 50d Moving Average is now at 924.38 and the 200d MA is 870.14, both rising.
A week ago I remarked, “…on extreme weakness, we’ll be writing puts and also buying calls as higher precious metal prices are still likely.” We started to do that.
$XAU, GDX and XGD this week were mixed (-2.40%, -2.91% and +0.94%, respectively W/W). This week the $USD was almost flat.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.
Spot silver chart for the week
This week, $SILVER dropped -$0.60/oz or -4.08% W/W to close at 14.22. That’s three straight weeks of losses.
We are buying the dips as our long-term outlook is still bullish. We like Silver Wheaton (SLW).
For $SILVER, the 50d MA is now 13.88, and the 200d MA is 12.12. The 50MA pulled back a tad.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.
$PLATINUM lost -$45.80/oz (-3.71%) to close that week at 1215.10, and that followed a loss of -$26.70/oz in the prior week.
Previously, $PLAT had been red hot and so the pull-back was needed.
The 50d MA is now at 1182.85, and the 200d MA is at 1040.49.
We got out of our precious metals play a couple days before the sell-off two weeks ago, and are now looking at getting back in with put writes (ie, a bullish position).
Spot platinum chart for the week
Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.
$PALL lost -$7.90/oz (-3.13%) to close at 246.15. Consolidation last week and this was needed, before moving higher.
The 50d and 200d MA is now at 237.23 and 212.81, respectively, so the present price is still higher than both the 50d MA and the 200d MA (ie, a Bull).
Spot palladium chart for the week
Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.
$COPPER contracts dropped -12.15 (-5.10%) to close at 226.15. Over the past four weeks there had been a gain of +36.55, so the pull-back is seen as consolidation only – at this point.
The 50d and 200d MA’s are 215.67 and 195.13, respectively, so technically the copper price is in Bull territory, just like the precious metals.
For those who are keen to study the industrial metals like copper, aluminum and zinc, why not look at the powershares DBB, which trades on the NYSE.
http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:DBB
Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.
Table 12: Senior gold equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
The Goldminer indexes and ETFs this week were as follows: $XAU -2.40% to 141.64; GDX -2.913% to 38.39; and XGD +0.18% to 19.37. The XGD showed a reversal W/W, but all were very strong on Friday.
We are still watching the $USD, the metals futures and spot prices and the peer group gold & silver miner stocks, to decide on re-entry points. Despite a setback this week, we do feel that the Great Reflation era has not come to an end – not even close. So, we are patient and stand aside while watching for indications of money flow returning to this industry.
However, that may be hard to do if the broad market goes into a sharp decline in the next week or two.
To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows: NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
LIHR IAG EGO RGLD GOLD TSE_AGI GSS NG WGW AEM
Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF: SLV SIL SVM CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN
Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:
Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:
The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.
Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:
GDX Weekly data:
GDX Daily data:
The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD.
Just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.
Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:
Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:
Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:
Forex Review
The $USD is a trade-weighted US Dollar index, we used to call the Morgan Dollar.
You cannot trade commodities that are priced in $USD without studying forex movement. The Forex market is a multi-trillion dollar marketplace every day, which dwarfs the size of the stock and bond markets. In this market, the Euro/USD is the highest volume trader.
The current value of $USD is a mean value of rate fluctuations of six world currencies (Japanese yen, Euro, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc and Swedish krona) that each trade against the USD.
Two weeks ago, the $USD looked like it might strengthen and burst into the 81-83 range, but then backed off. This week, the $USD closed a tad higher on the week (+0.10% to 80.31), but losing -0.34% on the Friday.
The 50-day MA of the $USD is now at 82.48 (still falling). The 200-day MA is 83.64 (still rising). The spread was quite narrow a couple weeks ago, but now is widening (bearish).
As I remarked two weeks ago in this space: “If all the central bankers could act in unison, I’m sure we’d see a pronounced move in one direction or the other. But the fact is these central bankers are acting in opposition, so the markets are volatile when each country’s economy is being so closely scrutinized by their governments. I think they’d all like to see a lower currency to help exports and in-bound foreign direct investment and tourism. But they also don’t want to see commodity prices soar either… Meanwhile we wait to see what happens.”
Pro traders don’t take big stakes unless they see a break-out one way or the other. A break below 79 or above 83 would be major.
Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:
The Euro ($XEU) fell this week (-0.60%), about the same as the previous week, closing at 139.33, which partly explains the pressure on gold prices.
The 50d MA and 200d MA for the Euro are now 136.11 (rising) and 133.69 (falling), respectively, so the present price is still well above both, meaning the Euro is in a Bull phase for now, but needs a rising 200d MA to be called a real Bull. As the spread widens, the risks of a short-term reversal move increase.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:
Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:
The Pound lifted +0.20% W/W to close at 164.85. There had been a gain of +3.0% the prior week. This currency has been rather volatile in recent weeks. On Friday there was a gain of +0.90%.
The 50d and 200d MA is 154.99 (rising rapidly) and 154.40 (slowly falling), respectively, so it is in a short-term Bull phase.
Weekly British Pound Index:
Daily British Pound Index:
Weekly Japanese Yen Index:
The Japanese Yen ($XJY) soared +2.22% W/W to 103.86, which is significant, and there was a large loss on the previous Friday (-0.88%), which means that in six sessions the Yen has gained over +3.1%. That is very hurtful to manufacturing exporters like the auto companies.
The Yen’s 50-day MA is now 102.79 (rising) and the 200-day MA is 103.58 (rising). The current price is now above both the 50d and the 200d MA, so it’s in a Bull relative to the USD, reversing its trend of a week ago.
Typically, a Bull for the Yen is when I noticed that gold breaks to the downside. That relationship is only an observation of mine and not a fact (unless someone is able to prove a case empirically).
Daily Japanese Yen Index:
The Canadian Dollar has been bearish in the past six sessions. This week, there was a loss (-1.22% to 88.11) and the previous Friday’s loss was -1.60%. So that’s a loss of almost -3.0% in six sessions, which is hard on the gold bulls.
The Loonie 50-day MA and 200-day MA are now at 86.31 (rapidly rising from 84.57 two weeks ago) and 84.00 (falling), respectively. So, the trend is still higher unless and until the price starts to conflict with the 50d MA, possibly breaking below it. That would be very bad for the price of gold, I think.
Trading forex is a dicey game, but the price trends and cycles must be studied nonetheless as they serve as confirmations -- or anomalies -- of other prices. In the latter case, the relationship needs to be studied further.
Weekly Canadian Dollar Index:
Daily Canadian Dollar Index:
Here is the China Yuan (CNY) chart.
International Equity Markets Review
The international stock exchange indexes made modest changes this week.
Over the past five weeks, the UK FTSE moved from 4348.1 to 4365.3 to 4417.9 to 4438.6 to 4442.0, and now to 4345.9, back to where it started.
The German DAX moved from 4737.5 to 4918.8 to 4940.8 to 5077.0 to 5069.2, and now to 4839.5, which is a tad stronger.
Aussie All-Ords moved from 3758.9 down to 3755.4, but then up to 3813.3 to 3969.0 to 4061.5, before falling to 3894.4, which is still a tad stronger than it was five weeks ago.
HK’s Hang Seng moved from 16790.7 to 17062.5 to 18171.0 to 18679.5 to 18889.7, and now down to 17920.9, which is stronger than five weeks ago, but weaker than three weeks ago. This is an exchange that seems to be able to more accurately forecast trends and cycles than most of the others.
Shanghai moved down from 2645.3 to 2597.6, and then in a three day holiday shortened week up to 2632.9 and then to 2753.9 and to 2743.8 before lifting to 2880.5 this week. Shanghai was the only exchange index that lifted W/W.
Brazil’s Bovespa moved from 49007.2 to 50568.5 to 53197.7 to 53341.0 to 55558.2, and now down sharply to 51373.8. The Bovespa is quite volatile, so if it falls again this coming week, that will likely be a precursor of the global equity prices direction.
India moved in four weeks from 12173.4 to 13887.2 to 14625.3 to 15103.6 to 15237.9, which, again, was outstanding. But, this week, the Bombay BSE 30 Sensex index dropped to 14521.9, which like Brazil is a negative for the market Bulls..
So, once again, I will repeat my remarks of the past four weeks; “Caveat emptor.” This is a market you need to have your wits about you. A massive change in currency sends this equity market haywire. Unless the $USD collapses here – say below 79 – I don’t see the broad equity market lifting. A stagnant $USD will also continue to hold $GOLD from a possible move to former highs just above 1000.
But if you see India and Brazil exchange indexes move robustly higher along with the Cdn Loonie and the Aussie Dollar, with the $USD below 79, then we’ll probably have a continuation of bullish trends for equities and precious metals. Also watch the $SILVER price because if that one is lifting faster than the $GOLD price day to day then I don’t think the US equity market is going to fall to where we need to protect our portfolios with puts.
There are 16 country index charts from StockCharts.com (with their formal approval btw) because I think it is important to be watching these markets move through a trend juncture together, and in relation to currency and commodity strength or weakness. I also made some additions to the country-based ETF tables as I intend to focus more on ETF’s in 2009. In time, I will also set up more tables and track the domestic market prices. Now that the Drupal platform is in place, it’s just a matter of time and focus for me to expand these tables, and to possibly have separate blog streams.
Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.
Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.
Brazilian Bovespa stockcharts.com chart
Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.
Toronto 300 stockcharts.com chart
Toronto CDNX stockcharts.com chart
Europe
Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.
Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.
FTSE 100 stockcharts.com chart
Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.
Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.
Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.
Italian Milan Index stockcharts.com chart
Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index. Swiss Market Index stockcharts.com chart
Asia-Pacific
Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.
Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.
Tokyo Nikkei 225 Index stockcharts.com chart
Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .
Singapore Straits Times Index stockcharts.com chart
Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .
Shanghai Composite Index stockcharts.com chart
Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .
Hong Kong Hang Seng stockcharts.com chart
Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .
Mumbai BSE 30 Sensex Index stockcharts.com chart
Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .
Sydney All Ordinaries Index stockcharts.com chart
Russia (RTS) stockcharts.com chart
Table 13: International equities via an ETF perspective (in $USD)
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ
Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
U.K. equity market ETF
Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
EWU Daily data: 
Canada’s equity market
Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
Taiwan’s equity market
Here is the Republic of China/Taiwan (EWT) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
US Equity Markets Review
In the US equity market, the bigger picture is still taking shape. A week ago in this space I remarked, “Volume is low. RSI-7 is now giving mixed signals, which follows a quite bullish phase,” indicating that prices were possibly ready to drop to test support levels (like S&P at 920), and that’s what happened.
The losses this week for the NASDAQ, DJIA, S&P 500 Russell 2000 small cap index were significant (-1.69%, -2.94%, -2.64%, and -2.68%, respectively), despite a gain on Friday.
On Friday as the NASDAQ, S&P and Russell 2000 lifted, the DJIA declined a bit. Many of the DJIA biggest caps (GE, XOM, CVX) were big losers this week.
Here is a dozen NASDAQ stocks to watch.
Here is the Monthly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.
Here is the Weekly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.
Here is the Daily data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.
Table 14: Dow 30 List
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well.
(list one)
(list two)
For those of you who are relatively new at trading, or to this blog, why not pull the ten (10) Cara 100 companies out of the DJIA 30 list, and study the links for just these stocks? Keep a hard copy of the Value Line quarterly report plus a record of the Daily-Weekly-Monthly RSI-7 technical indicator. Study up on what the RSI is so you know it and have confidence that it is just like a football game yardstick that shows you how much risk your team is facing when trying to score points. The Cara 100 high-quality company list has the following ten DJIA components:
Wal-Mart (WMT), Disney (DIS), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), McDonalds (MCD), Exxon (XOM), Boeing (BA), Procter & Gamble (PG), IBM (IBM), Intel (INTC), and United Technologies (UTX)
There is no rocket science to these high-quality companies. In your typical week, you shopped at Wal-Mart and along the aisles, mostly the personal consumer products were from Procter & Gamble, except for maybe the baby powder from Johnson & Johnson. On the way there, you may have filled-up at an Exxon gas station, and on the way home, maybe you stopped for a Big Mac or a salad at McDonalds. Overhead, you watched airplanes from Boeing. If you were in a high-rise building, you probably rode in an Otis elevator from United Technologies. Maybe you no longer have an IBM PC, but you do know the company, and your present PC is likely powered by Intel. Every parent's kids want you to take them to Disney… All in all, this is just life we're talking about here. If you are alive, you know these companies like your children. You probably even see more of them… So, just quickly read those Value Line reports – one per company every 13 weeks – and keep an eye on the RSI (momentum) and MACD (trend)… Those guys on Wall Street may be worth a gazillion dollars, but they didn't do it the way you and I have to do it. So, stop listening to their stories that financial engineering and out-sourcing is what's making America strong. That is such a crock. So, live life, use common sense, do only what you understand, feel comfortable, and you'll be surprised at how quickly you can take control and free yourself of the shackles of HB&B.
Value Line Report(s) this past Friday
This week, Value Line reported on one DJIA component: Boeing (BA), which is a Cara 100 company that is still facing issues related to the Dreamliner. Do you long-timers here recall when Boeing under Harry Stonecipher was introducing this plane, I opined that there were undue expectations because the thing still hadn’t been designed and the early sales book was built on foreign orders that were linked quid pro quo to domestic parts manufacturing in those countries, which was likely to cause problems down the line. We’ll get into that today.
Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30. Cara 100]
(BA: Google Finance file)
(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: Billcara2 chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BA: Value Line Report Jun. 19: next one is due Sept. 18)
Always before I study a company, I take a quick look at the Monthly-Weekly- and Daily charts:
http://billcara2.com/tkchart/tkchart.asp?stkname=BA&ind=rsi&wt=3
http://billcara2.com/tkchart/tkchart.asp?stkname=BA&ind=rsi&wt=1
http://billcara2.com/tkchart/tkchart.asp?stkname=BA&ind=rsi&wt=0
The RSI-7 for the Monthly/Weekly/Daily is 46.6 (rising) / 62.0 (falling) / 42.5 (falling), which is just a little stronger than for the XLI (industrial sector ETF) (37.2 (falling) / 52.2 (falling) / 28.6 (falling). BA in my mind is one of those stocks, like Home Depot (HD), that the Interventionists use for Bull and Bear traps. So be wary if, as and when the Monthly RSI-7 turns down for BA.
My associate Pierre Brodeur has written up a detailed technical study on BA using Point & Figure analysis. He’s looking for possible entry points in the 39-40 and 43 levels, with a long-term upside with a minimum of 70, and possibly up to the 80-85 level.
http://caracommunity.com/blogs/pierre-brodeur/2009/06/boeing-co-–-june-22nd-2009
Starting this month, Pierre and Pascal Willain as well are a big help to me on the trader’s conference calls on Monday in doing our weekly strategy. I hope you read their frequent updates. Pretty soon, Pascal’s work, like Pierre’s and also Vad Graifer’s, will be fully integrated into the blog.
From the Value Line study of Boeing (BA) this week, I noted a few points:
• ‘Safety’ and ‘Technical’ has been lowered recently, which is bullish, but ‘Timeliness’ [of fundamentals] has been raised, which is a negative.
• Share earnings were lowered by the analyst for both 2009 and 2010 as there is a slowing of production rates and a narrowing of margins.
• A slower to recover global economy is causing order cancellations and making it harder for buyers of planes to finance their purchases.
• Dividends will grow to $1.68/share for 2009, which is a much slower rate of growth than in the past several years, but the company’s financial condition and short-term cash is strengthening.
• The US Defense Dept may have to cut back on orders as the govt has precious little money to spend.
• After an anomalous negative 2008, Boeing’s per share metrics like sales, cash flow, and earnings, are rising again for 2009 and expected to rise further for 2010.
I don’t care much for the broad market trading environment in terms of making acquisitions right now, but if there were another pull-back, I would recommend a program of put writes, call purchases, and outright stock purchases. Of course, we all have to see whether the Dreamliner can actually fly as advertised. We shouldn’t have to wait long for that.
Given a positive response of the international airlines to the Dreamliner flight tests in the next couple weeks, I think the entry points expressed by Pierre here are good ones to consider, and the upside targets are also quite reasonable.
A healthy global economy will do wonders for stocks like BA (Better American).
A week ago I wrote up Exxon (XOM), as follows:
In the past 13 weeks, Crude Oil contracts have lifted in price from $47.03 to 72.75, which is a +54.7% gain, hitting a high this Thursday at $73.90. Pretty close to 75.
Suffice to say that 100% of our extensive put writes programs (this past quarter) were enormously profitable. CVX, which has a beta of 0.90 increased in price +15.51% from 62.91 to 72.67, while XOM, with a beta of just 0.75 increased +9.79% from 67.20 to 73.78.
The difference here is the recent resistance to higher prices in XOM, reflected by the sharp drop in Daily RSI-7.
The XOM Daily RSI-7 has dropped below the 70 line, indicating a first level sell alert in the Distribution Zone. As the Weekly RSI-7 for XOM is just 65.0 and side-tracking, it is likely a time to lighten up or sell covered calls or sell call spreads or just sell the position outright. These are all bearish decisions, which will be dictated by oil prices, peer group price action, and broad market price trend and cycle analysis. I would not buy puts because the broad market direction is still up, and the price of XOM could fall back a bit, which would take the Daily RSI-7 down quite a bit, and then have another run higher. Meanwhile, in that possible event, time decay would eat you up, and you’d likely lose 100% of your premium.
Important:
My associate Pierre Brodeur has written up an extensive technical study of XOM that confirms the downward pressure in the short-term, but within a generally sideways trading pattern he anticipates. So, this is not a good time to buy calls, or even to take a long-term bullish position in the stock that will not become a more attractive entry point in future months.Pro traders make decisions all day every day, going with their overall assessment of capital markets and individual stocks. But, every move they make is, or should be, based on risk management. That is the reason I don’t like to buy puts unless it’s clear to me and you that we are looking at break-downs across the board and technical support levels are being smashed. At that point I know all those stop orders have been taken out, and the owners of those trades are psychologically down and maybe out. You may not want to hear this but it’s only when the market is writhing in pain do I want to kick it.
…One final comment about Exxon; it’s been called the world’s greatest company by the Goldman Sach’s analyst, and the greatest company in the history of the world by a Motley Fool analyst.
http://www.fool.com/investing/dividends-income/2009/06/12/the-greatest-c...That’s enough to scare me!
Some of you were surprised I made that bearish call when I was saying we were buying the oil stocks, etc. Well, proof is in the pudding. This week XOM dropped -3.70% from 73.78 to 71.05. Now the Monthly RSI-7 is rolling over, about the spin downward to follow the Weekly and (recent) Daily. We stopped buying the oils and started selling.
It may be a tad early, however, to buy puts; but not by much.
Yes, I do see a time soon ahead, but not quite yet, when we will have to be aggressive in our pursuit to protect wealth. I feel that before buying puts you should wait until you feel the opponent’s pain before giving them a swift kick. This is down-in-the-trench combat you know.
At times like this; it’s your bayonet against theirs, and it’s not often they get into such a vulnerable position. “They” obviously are HB&B, and the hedge, pension and mutual funds, and “we” are the independent traders who want to manage personal wealth.
So, get locked and loaded. Under cloudy economic skies, and the noise of politicians whining, we’re about to get oil on our hands.
The Dow 30 Company links in chronological order of the upcoming reports.
AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(T: Google Finance file)
(T: Yahoo Finance file)
(T: StockChart chart)
(T: Billcara2 chart)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: Value Line Report Mar. 27: next one is due Jun. 26)
Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(VZ: Google Finance file)
(VZ: Yahoo Finance file)
(VZ: StockChart chart)
(VZ: Billcara2 chart)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: Value Line Report Mar. 27: next one is due Jun. 26)
Procter & Gamble Co. [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Google Finance file)
(PG: Yahoo Finance file)
(PG: StockChart chart)
(PG: Billcara2 chart)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: Value Line Report Apr. 3: next one is due Jul. 3)
Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(HD: Google Finance file) (HD: Yahoo Finance file) (HD: StockChart chart) (HD: Billcara2 chart) (HD: ADVFN Financial Data) (HD: Value Line Report Apr. 3: next one is due Jul. 3)
General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, ex-Cara 100]
(GE: Google Finance file)
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: Billcara2 chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GE: Value Line Report Apr. 10: next one is due Jul. 10)
Hewlett-Packard [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(HPQ: Google Finance file)
(HPQ: Yahoo Finance file)
(HPQ: StockChart chart)
(HPQ: Billcara2 chart)
(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HPQ: Value Line Report Apr. 10: next one is due Jul. 10)
IBM [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(IBM: Google Finance file)
(IBM: Yahoo Finance file)
(IBM: StockChart chart)
(IBM: Billcara2 chart)
(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(IBM: Value Line Report Apr. 10: next one is due Jul. 10)
Intel [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(INTC: Google Finance file)
(INTC: Yahoo Finance file)
(INTC: StockChart chart)
(INTC: Billcara2 chart)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: Value Line Report Apr. 10: next one is due Jul. 10)
Alcoa [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(AA: Google Finance file)
(AA: Yahoo Finance file)
(AA: StockChart chart)
(AA: Billcara2 chart)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: Value Line Report Apr. 17: next one is due Jul. 17)
Dupont [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(DD: Google Finance file)
(DD: Yahoo Finance file)
(DD: StockChart chart)
(DD: Billcara2 chart)
(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DD: Value Line Report Apr. 17: next one is due Jul. 17)
Merck [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(MRK: Google Finance file)
(MRK: Yahoo Finance file)
(MRK: StockChart chart)
(MRK: Billcara2 chart)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: Value Line Report Apr. 17: next one is due Jul. 17)
Pfizer [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(PFE: Google Finance file)
(PFE: Yahoo Finance file)
(PFE: StockChart chart)
(PFE: Billcara2 chart)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: Value Line Report Apr. 17: next one is due Jul. 17)
United Technologies [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(UTX: Google Finance file)
(UTX: Yahoo Finance file)
(UTX: StockChart chart)
(UTX: Billcara2 chart)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: Value Line Report Apr. 24: next one is due Jul. 24)
Caterpillar [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(CAT: Google Finance file)
(CAT: Yahoo Finance file)
(CAT: StockChart chart)
(CAT: Billcara2 chart)
(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CAT: Value Line Report Apr. 24: next one is due Jul. 24)
Coca Cola [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KO: Google Finance file)
(KO: Yahoo Finance file)
(KO: StockChart chart)
(KO: Billcara2 chart)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: Value Line Report May 1: next one is due Jul 31)
Kraft Foods [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KFT: Google Finance file)
(KFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(KFT: StockChart chart)
(KFT: Billcara2 chart)
(KFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KFT: Value Line Report May 1: next one is due Jul 31)
Wal-Mart [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(WMT: Google Finance file)
(WMT: Yahoo Finance file)
(WMT: StockChart chart)
(WMT: Billcara2 chart)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: Value Line Report May 8: next one is due Aug 8)
Disney [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(DIS: Google Finance file)
(DIS: Yahoo Finance file)
(DIS: StockChart chart)
(DIS: Billcara2 chart)
(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DIS: Value Line Report May 15: next one is due Aug. 15)
3M Company [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara US 100 June 25-06]
(MMM: Google Finance file)
(MMM: Yahoo Finance file)
(MMM: StockChart chart)
(MMM: Billcara2 chart)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: Value Line Report May 15: next one is due Aug. 15)
American Express [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AXP: Google Finance file)
(AXP: Yahoo Finance file)
(AXP: StockChart chart)
(AXP: Billcara2 chart)
(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AXP: Value Line Report May 22: next one is due Aug. 22)
Bank of America [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(BAC: Google Finance file)
(BAC: Yahoo Finance file)
(BAC: StockChart chart)
(BAC: Billcara2 chart)
(BAC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BAC: Value Line Report May 22: next one is due Aug. 22)
JP Morgan [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(JPM: Google Finance file)
(JPM: Yahoo Finance file)
(JPM: StockChart chart)
(JPM: Billcara2 chart)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: Value Line Report May 22: next one is due Aug. 22)
Microsoft [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(MSFT: Google Finance file)
(MSFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(MSFT: StockChart chart)
(MSFT: Billcara2 chart)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: Value Line Report May 22: next one is due Aug. 22)
Johnson & Johnson [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(JNJ: Google Finance file)
(JNJ: Yahoo Finance fle)
(JNJ: StockChart chart)
(JNJ: Billcara2 chart)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: Value Line Report Feb. 27: next one is due Aug 29)
McDonalds [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(MCD: Google Finance file)
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: Billcara2 chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: Value Line Report Jun. 5: next one is due Sept. 4)
Chevron Corp [GICS 10, Dow 30]
(CVX: Google Finance file)
(CVX: Yahoo Finance file)
(CVX: StockChart chart)
(CVX: Billcara2 chart)
(CVX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CVX: Value Line Report Jun. 12: next one is due Sept. 11)
ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(XOM: Google Finance file)
(XOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(XOM: StockChart chart)
(XOM: Billcara2 chart)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: Value Line Report Jun. 12: next one is due Sept. 11)
Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30. Cara 100]
(BA: Google Finance file)
(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: Billcara2 chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BA: Value Line Report Jun. 19: next one is due Sept. 18)
Wrap-up:
I’m not saying I’m altogether caught up in the Facebook thing yet; after all, I just got started a couple days ago. But, I love the photos and personal stories. If you like people as much as I do, Facebook looks like a terrific idea.
http://www.facebook.com/people/Bill-Cara/1790779708
Maybe you’ll even join as a friend of Bill Cara? There are times, I know, when we all need a friend.
Hopefully, you are enjoying this blog as much as I do writing and producing it. There is so much to learn, but for sure a little bit here and a little bit there will, over time, amount to a significant improvement in your managing personal wealth.
If it’s not working out as well as hoped, maybe you need a personal trainer (at a small cost), like Vadym Graifer. Soon, we hope, his web site and offering of books will be fully integrated here. Vad will also be at the Cara Bahamas 2010 Conference helping those self-directed accounts improve their performance.
At the Cara 2010 Bahamas Conference, I decided I’d be the one to teach the very basics to trading prices to “newbies” who want to learn the right way. If anything, those who come for the experience will be able to return home and be able to articulate more clearly their questions and concerns to their personal financial advisors. That is a good situation for everybody.
We are also going to have special programs at this conference for financial advisors because I know many of you write me to say how much you enjoy and learn different things from this blog. Believe me, I may be anti-HB&B, but I am very much pro financial advisors – at least the ones who think for themselves, work as conflict-free as their employer permits, and have a plan that actually serves the client right. There are thousands upon thousands out there who are all of the above. I learn from them too, and they are quick to share. Some even work for the biggest names on Wall Street.
I have always believed that it’s the HB&B name that gets a personal or institutional financial advisor in the door, but the quality of person is what makes the difference. There is a big difference between the two in so many cases.
Don’t hesitate to switch advisors or even companies, but if you do find an advisor who performs to your expectations, don’t ever walk away. Just learn more about the markets and trading to be able to better direct that person in terms of your specific needs and concerns.
Who knows, maybe you’ll even meet one of those independent advisors (not me, but others) at the conference. I have even been known to make introductions.
I was able to quickly run through the material this week, which is a good thing because today is Father’s Day, the weather is perfect, and I do intend to get out and enjoy it.
To all father’s; we’re in the same boat. It’s one of life’s joys. So enjoy it.
Happy Father’s Day.
