[4:45pm ET] The thing about price momentum is that it’s either working for you or against you. This was a week that the Bulls felt the downward pressure as there were no rising sectors in the US equity market; 25 of the 30 components of the DJIA index dropped in price; and all the USD-denominated country ETFs fell, some of them like India (IFN -14.3%) and Russia (RSX -12.5%) plunging.
This weekend, as I looked for hours at chart after chart of stocks, industry groups, and countries, all I could think about was that most prices are sinking under the pressure of RSI and that if the Bulls are to regain control one of two things must happen. Either earnings season must somehow bring in a seismic shift in trader sentiment or the Fed (and other central banks of the G-8) must start printing lots of money again and somehow feed it to the fund managers that are presently being squeezed by Humungous Bank & Broker (HB&B).
If there has been one mistake I’ve made in recent weeks is that “Mo” has been picking up steam on the downside, including in the precious metals. As you know, I had expected one final burst of buying that would have sent the gold price to four digits, i.e., $1,000/oz. But that’s not happening, and on Friday this week the $USD soared a half cent to nail that notion to the wall.
So, it’s back to the charts and the study of momentum, and of Relative Strength Index (RSI) in particular.
Wiki defines RSI as a momentum oscillator that measures the velocity and magnitude of directional price movement by comparing upward and downward close-to-close movements. More specifically, momentum measures the rate of the rise or fall in stock price. Is the momentum increasing in the "up" direction, or is the momentum increasing in the "down" direction? A simple way to picture momentum: Imagine a ball rolling down a hill. It starts off pretty slow and then as it gets further down the hill it picks up momentum and starts rolling faster.
The RSI was developed by J. Welles Wilder and published in Commodities magazine (now called Futures magazine) in June 1978, and in his New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems the same year…. Note that the term relative strength also refers to the strength of a security in relation to its sector or the overall market. For instance, XYZ might rise 2% when S&P 500 rises 1%. This is also called comparative relative strength to avoid confusion. It's unrelated to the Relative Strength Index.
Colin Twiggs at incrediblecharts.com has an outstanding write-up of RSI for you students of the market:
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/relative_strength_index.php
I cannot begin to tell you how confident I became at trading once I mastered a few “lessons”, particularly the ones about the technical indicator known as the relative strength index. RSI permitted me to focus on the one thing in markets that are all-important, which is price, and more importantly the directional movement of the price series data.
With that tool in hand, I was able to study the market’s inter-relationships, which in many cases are matters of degree, but collectively help you project today’s prices into the future. That fact gives us independent traders a small edge, allowing us an opportunity to trade effectively against firms like Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan that control the world’s most important central banks, the firms that know in advance from the credit they expand or squeeze the direction that prices are headed.
Yes, over the years I have had my teachers too. The late Ian Notley was in fact the best I ever met. He was so good that the first opportunity I had to hire him I stole him from Dominion Securities and re-built his whole Trend & Cycle system and database for us to use at Canaccord. We pierced some of HB&B’s armor with that deal.
A week ago in this space, I wrote:
At the end of the day, while I could be wrong, I think we’ll discover, despite Thursday’s rather large sell-off, there is still ample power in the US equity market to boost the S&P from 896 to 950, and perhaps even 1000, but beyond that there are still numerous negative economic and corporate issues that need to be addressed and resolved. After the shocks of 2008 and February-March 2009, market stabilization may take time. It’s a process. So (in the interim) I continue to look for sector rotation as the S&P tests 880, and briefly lower possibly as short sellers get set up to be squeezed.
Yes, I see 880 ahead. After all, that’s only 16 S&P points (-2%) away. Whether this test is a legitimate break-through to the cyclical Bear phase that many believe is somewhere ahead, nobody knows. If I see $GOLD spike to 1000 and then crash, along with $WTIC (Crude Oil), and a higher $USD, then, yes, I believe it will be game over for the Bulls and the lights will be turned out in the old ball park for a couple months.
So a week later, the S&P closed, not at 880, but at 879.13. Momentum is telling me that either the central banks and the Bulls soon get their act in gear or else there is a further loss of -10% about to happen.
Reading those charts, I can find very, very few that make me think Mr. Market will not see 800 before 1,000 on the S&P. So, as I prepare to take a week’s vacation in Havana, a place I have never visited, let’s see what caught my eye in the market this week.
Global Economics Review
Weekly International Economic Report.
Econoday reported,
Uncertainty about second-quarter corporate earnings gripped investor focus. This, combined with new worries about the global economic recovery, sent many equity indexes to two month lows. The mood was fragile and risk aversion was heightened by cautious comments from the International Monetary Fund about global growth. Analysts said that investor focus was shifting from the inventory-led rebound to the sustainability of the upswing. Most analysts cited the July 2nd U.S. nonfarm payrolls data having triggered a fresh bout of nerves. While the earnings bar has been lowered and might be met, investors are expected to focus on guidance and revenues for the rest of the year amid the uncertainty over prospects for a second half economic recovery. Thin summer volumes could exaggerate movements going forward. A growing mood of market uncertainty has left assets such as equities and commodities looking more vulnerable… The Reserve Bank of Australia, as expected, left its key interest rate at 3 percent. The Bank of England also maintained the status quo, leaving their key rate at 0.5 percent and keeping the level of their quantitative easing program unchanged at least until August… The yen soared to a five month high against the dollar and a seven week peak against the euro and government bonds gained ground as escalating risk aversion drove nervous investors away from commodities, equities and credit… All equity indexes followed here in Europe and North America were down last week. In Asia, stocks were mixed with five of 13 indexes ending the week higher.
Here are the key US economic reports on last week’s rather light calendar.
US ISM Non-Manufacturing report for June. After the data, Econoday reported, “ISM's non-manufacturing report is stronger-than-expected, showing a 3 point rise in the composite headline index to 47.0. New orders are a big plus, jumping more than 4 points to 48.6. New orders in the ISM's manufacturing report jumped above 50 in May before settling back to 49.2 in June. The 49.2 reading along with today's 48.6 suggest that month-to-month order rates in the economy are finally steadying. Backlog orders jumped 6 points in today's report to 46.0. Other readings include a nearly 7-1/2 point jump in the business activity index, which indicates improved output, along with a nearly 4-1/2 point jump in the employment index to 43.4, an improvement that contrasts with last week's disappointing payroll data… Another good sign in the report is an actual month-to-month gain for prices, up nearly 7 points to 53.7. The gain of course reflects the month's roughly 10 percent rise in energy costs but energy costs themselves were on the rise due to expectations of increasing demand. Despite the signs of life, non-manufacturers, like manufacturers, are drawing down inventories aggressively with the index down 2 points to 45.0. Draws indicate that firms are still leery over the prospects for sustained economic growth. Stocks and commodities rose on today's report, one that points soon to 50 readings, that is an end to month-to-month deterioration.”
US Consumer Credit for May. Econoday reported after the data release, “Consumer credit contracted less than expected in May, at $3.2 billion vs. April's mammoth contraction of $16.5 billion ($15.7 billion first reported). May's contraction was centered in revolving credit, at $2.9 billion on top of April's $8.7 billion contraction. Consumers are saving, not spending, and banks are pulling back available credit on credit cards. Non-revolving credit fell $0.4 billion in May. The scarcity of credit and the unwillingness to draw on it are major factors limiting economic improvement, not just in the consumer sector but in the business sector as well.”
US Jobless Claims for the week ending 7/4. After the data release, Econoday reported, “Initial jobless claims in the July 4 week fell a very steep 52,000 to a much lower-than-expected level of 565,000 -- the lowest level since the beginning of the year and extending a trend of improvement that is certain to give a boost to green-shoot talk (prior week revised slightly to 617,000)… Citing a Labor Department analyst, Market News International says the latest week benefited from a shift in the timing of auto layoffs and other layoffs in the manufacturing sector, layoffs that have already happened. Note that seasonal adjustments are fixed at the beginning of the year and are not adjusted to reflect current events, here of course the bankruptcies of General Motors and Chrysler… But a negative in the report is continuing claims which jumped 159,000 to a new high of 6.883 million in data for the June 27 week. The four-week average is also a new high, at 6.769 million… The most important factor, though, is that new claims are coming down, pointing to eventual easing in continuing claims. The markets got an immediate lift out of this report with stocks and commodities rising.”
US International Trade for May. After the data release, Econoday reported, “The U.S. trade deficit in May unexpectedly narrowed on both a rebound in exports and a drop in imports. The good news is that the exports were widespread by end use category. The overall U.S. trade gap shrank to $26.0 billion from a revised $28.8 billion shortfall the previous month. The May differential was less than the consensus projection for a $28.8 billion deficit and was the smallest since the $25.7 billion for November 1999. For the latest month, exports rebounded 1.6 percent while imports declined another 0.6 percent… The narrowing in the trade shortfall was seen in both petroleum and nonpetroleum components. The petroleum deficit shrank to $13.3 billion from $14.9 billion in April. The goods excluding petroleum shortfall narrowed to $22.7 billion from $23.8 billion in April. Surprisingly, the petroleum gap fell despite a jump in crude oil prices to $51.21 per imported barrel from $46.60 the month before. The number of barrels that were imported in May fell a sharp 10.5 percent… Year-on-year, overall exports rose to minus 21.3 percent in May from down 21.6 percent in April while imports declined to minus 31.3 percent from minus 30.8 percent the prior month… The best part of today's report was the rebound in exports-which is sweet music to manufacturers' ears. Also, today's trade number will help soften the second quarter decline in GDP. The negative news is that the lower imports indicate weak domestic demand. But overall, equities should like the trade report but company earnings have center stage.”
US Consumer Sentiment for early July. After the data release, Econoday reported, “Consumer confidence crumbled in June and it is continuing to crumble so far in July. Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell more than 6 points to 64.6 for mid-month July. Weakness is now centered where there used to be increasing strength, in expectations which fell more than 8 points to 60.9. Expectations is the leading component in consumer confidence reports. Current conditions, the second component, fell nearly 3 points to 70.4… Inflation expectations were mixed with the one-year reading dipping back 1 tenth to 3.0 percent and in line with this month's decrease in pump prices. Five-year expectations rose 1 tenth to 3.1 percent… Stocks fell back as did commodities in immediate reaction to today's report which points to continued reversal in consumer spirits, spirits that had shown significant improvement in prior months. Note that most signals for next week's retail sales report are pointing to weakness, in what would be weakness in three of the last four months. This report is pointing now to the risk of a fourth month of disappointment.”
Here are the key US economic reports on next week’s calendar.
US Treasury Budget for June. Ahead of the data, Econoday reported, “The U.S. Treasury monthly budget report showed a massive deficit in May of $189.7 billion versus a year-ago May deficit of $165.9 billion. The deficit recently has been boosted by purchases of federal housing agency debt and outlays related to TARP. Year-to-date receipts were down 18 percent with year-to-date outlays up 19 percent. Looking ahead, the month of June typically shows a moderate surplus for the month. Over the past 10 years, the average surplus for the month of June has been $33.3 billion and $22.1 billion over the past 5 years.”
US Consumer Credit for May. Econoday opined before the data release, “Consumer credit outstanding contracted very severely in April, dropping $15.7 billion. The drop was about split evenly between revolving credit, down $8.6 billion, and nonrevolving credit, down $7.1 billion. Consumer credit has contracted three months in a row and in seven of the last nine months. Banks and credit card companies have been tightening available credit while consumers have pulled back on spending-either due to job loss or the fear of it. A positive number for May could indicate that consumers are starting to loosen up while another negative figure likely means the consumer is still retrenching.”
US Retail Sales for June. Ahead of data release, Econoday reported, “Retail sales in May were quite good at the headline level but after wading through the detail, the May gain was merely respectable. Overall retail sales rebounded 0.5 percent after falling 0.2 percent in April. Excluding motor vehicles, retail sales also made a comeback, gaining 0.5 percent, also following a 0.2 percent drop in April. However, a 3.6 percent jump in gasoline station sales was the primary factor behind the increase. Excluding motor vehicles and gasoline, retail sales edged up 0.1 percent after slipping 0.1 percent in April. Looking ahead, early indications from chain store sales are that retail sales are likely to be weak in June. Also, unit new motor vehicle sales declined slightly. However, the gasoline portion of retail sales is likely to be strong--oil prices in June jumped about $6 per barrel (roughly 11 percent) on a seasonally adjusted basis but contract oil prices will almost certainly dampen the increase.”
US Producer Price Index report for June. Prior to the data release, Econoday reported, “The producer price index inflation rate eased to a 0.2 percent gain, after rising 0.3 percent in April. Behind the slowing was a 1.6 percent drop in food prices after a 1.5 percent surge in April. Meanwhile, energy actually rebounded 2.9 percent. The core PPI rate posted a 0.1 percent decrease in May, following a 0.1 percent uptick the month before. June will likely see a boost in the headline number on higher energy costs.”
US Consumer Price Index report for June. Prior to the data release, Econoday reported, “The consumer price index edged up 0.1 percent in May after no change the month before. Keeping the headline CPI soft was a 0.2 percent decline in food prices that helped to offset a 0.2 percent gain in energy costs. But looking ahead, a rise in gasoline prices will likely bump up the headline CPI temporarily for June.”
US Empire State Survey for July. Prior to the data release, Econoday reported, “The Empire State manufacturing index fell back in June to minus 9.41 from minus 4.55 the month before. Looking ahead to July, the June new orders index suggests that there may be little change in the overall index. New orders, which point to future production and shipments, were roughly unchanged at minus 8.15 from minus 9.01 in May.”
US Industrial Production report for June. Prior to the data release, Econoday reported, “Industrial production in May dropped 1.1 percent, following a 0.7 percent fall in April. However, the manufacturing component was not quite as negative, falling 1.0 percent after declining 0.6 percent the prior month. For the other major non-manufacturing components, utilities in May fell 1.4 percent while mining output decreased 2.1 percent. Overall capacity utilization in May fell further to another new record low, dropping to 68.3 percent from 69.0 percent in April. Looking ahead, early indicators of manufacturing have been mixed. Production worker hours in manufacturing fell 1.2 percent in June, according to the latest employment report. Manufacturing surveys pointed in different directions for the month as the ISM rose closer to breakeven as did the Philly Fed Business Outlook Index. However, the Empire State index slipped further back into negative territory.”
US Jobless Claims report for week of July 11. Prior to the data release, Econoday reported, “Initial jobless claims in the July 4 week fell a very steep 52,000 to 565,000 -- the lowest level since the beginning of the year. However, the latest number benefited from coming off auto layoffs and other layoffs in the manufacturing sector that had already happened. But continuing claims for the June 27 week jumped 159,000 to a new high of 6.883 million. Net, the most important factor is that new claims are coming down, pointing to eventual easing in continuing claims.”
US Philadelphia Fed District report for July. Prior to the data release, Econoday reported, “The general business conditions component of the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey index jumped to minus 2.2 from minus 22.6 in May. This was the highest level since plus 1.9 seen this past September. Looking ahead, the June improvement could continue into July-the new orders index improved substantially to a mere minus 4.8 from minus 25.9 in May.”
US Housing Starts data for June. Prior to the data release, Econoday reported, “Housing starts rebounded in May 17.2 percent, following a sharp 12.9 percent drop the month before. The comeback was led by the multifamily component which posted a 61.7 percent gain after falling 49.4 percent in April. Nonetheless, the single-family component gained 7.5 percent, following a 3.3 percent rise the month before. Don't look for much improvement in June, however, as supply of single-family homes is still quite high and apartment vacancy rates have been rising.”
Note that I put much time and effort into organizing and summarizing Econoday’s informative, concise, and objective reports because they actually teach people something that can be used in trading decisions. You must agree that Econoday does a stand-out job. The individual reports contain terrific charts and other information. When I think it is important, I try to add comments, but for the most part, Econoday does an exceptionally fine job.
Summary for the International equity market ETFs
Here are the links to interactive charts from Billcara2.com for the key country ETFs, which you can add technical indicators for as well.
Group 1:
(list one)
(list two)
Group 2:
(list one)
(list two)
Among the international ETFs this week, every one of them took major losses, but the biggest were India (IFN -14.34% W/W) and Russia (RSX -12.96%).
Shanghai and India domestic markets managed to eke out small weekly gains, but the other major markets were down.
US Equity Markets Review
A week ago in this space, I stated:
I point out the realities here (with share prices hanging in at S&P 920 despite worsening economic data) because there has been a partial retracement of the Bear phase and many people are thinking Bull market. But, just like higher prices for houses in 2005 didn’t do anything except cause higher property taxes and real estate transaction fees and led to speculative property flips with no increase in material wealth, higher share prices that are not supported by growth in revenues, cash flow, earnings and dividends are not sustainable. As we noted a couple years ago with real estate prices, speculative gains may be good for a short time, but end badly… Think about this the next time you decide to chase a stock with a Weekly and Daily RSI-7 technical indicator above 70. If you plan to hold for long, you might want to emulate a banker or businessman and start reserving for losses… Now these comments are directed to the US equity market, which is the topic. But it could also be for the UK, Western Europe and Japan as well… The world is in a mess; I don’t care what the market indices are showing today. We are not going to have a normal economic recovery and that will negatively impact on the market because ultimately share prices must be based on fundamentals… Technically speaking, look down through the Monthly charts below and note how many prices are running up against falling Moving Average lines and how many RSI-7s and MACDs are rolling over, as trading volumes decline… No, this market is not out of the woods yet.
This week, the S&P (-1.93% to 879.13), DJIA (1.62% to 8146.52), NASDAQ Composite (-2.25% to 1756.03) and Russell 2000 small cap index (-3.26% to 480.98) were all smashed. Momentum is becoming bearish pretty much across the board.
NASDAQ Composite ino.com chart
NASDAQ Composite stockcharts.com chart
Here is the list of the ten highest-weighted non-financial stocks in the NASDAQ Composite. Put them in a watchlist (see Google Finance Portfolio) and watch them like a hawk:
AAPL MSFT GOOG QCOM RIMM CSCO INTC ORCL GILD EBAY
Daily RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10
Weekly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10
Monthly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10
Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market
Here’s the SPY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
SPY Monthly data: 
SPY Weekly data: 
SPY Daily data: 
The tables I show are for eleven GICS Sector Index Funds (ETF’s), including two for Technology (XLK and SMH), for a total of ten GICS sectors. They cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.
Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.
SPY XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF XLK SMH IYZ XLU .
You can also add more ETFs - up to 30 in total. For a list of components to many ETFs, go to the AMEX.com and NYSE.com web sites, and click on ETFs.
10 (energy: XLE) 
15 (basic materials: XLB) 
20 (industrial: XLI) 
25 (consumer discretionary: XLY) 
30 (consumer staples: XLP) 
35 (healthcare: IYH) 
40 (financial: XLF) 
45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH) 
50 (telecom: IYZ) 
55 (utilities: XLU) 
Individual Sector ETF Review
For these charts, at points in time when I think that market conditions might be changing, I’ll switch from RSI-7 to the more sensitive (but similarly constructed) indicator called Stochastics. These charts include the %K (fast) and %D (slow) stochastics. It will pay you to look at times when %K is above the %D and rising to stay with your price a bit. Let the force be with you. And when the %K crosses down through %D, it’s time to consider selling or taking other defensive action.
These charts show the numbers and the lines, so it’s not rocket science to follow.
Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)
Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLE Monthly data: 
XLE Weekly data: 
XLE Daily data: Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
After three weeks of being the worst of ten sectors to perform W/W, this week the improvement was that Energy (XLE -3.32% W/W) was just 8th worst of ten. Telecom and Basic Materials were worse.
For the prior three weeks, the Crude Oil price dropped -$6.02/bbl. This week, there was a further loss of -$5.85/bbl (-8.77%) to 60.88. According the XLE has been smashed -17.32% over this time.
As opined a week ago, “How you trade the Oils now depends on whether or not you think the G-8 leaders will decide to continue to prop the market with another reflation play. No pump job, no oil and lube, and no lift for the metals, and probably more weakness for the Financials. What’s left to hold the S&P at 880?”
We’ll just have to wait and see. But, they are, I believe, over-sold.
Exxon (XOM -4.9% to 65.12) took another hit. So too did the companies in the Western Canada oilsands business, like Suncor (SU -6.4%). PetroBrasil (PBR -7.1%) took a huge hit. The best of the lot was Apache (APA -1.4%).
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada
Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)
Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLB Monthly data:
XLB Weekly data:
Table 3: Senior Basic Materials:
XLB Daily data:
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Basic Materials (XLB) this week dropped -3.34% to close at 24.31. For four weeks now, the loss has amounted to -14.13%.
South Korean steelmaker Posco (PKX +0.8%) was best on the board.
Rio Tinto (RTP -21.4%) was by far the worst. There is a lot going on here with China.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124723948786923911.html
Vale (VALE -7.6%) also took a hit this week. Metal prices are under pressure. But this company remains aggressive on the world stage.
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idAFN1052030320090710?rpc=44
Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)
Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLI Monthly data: 
XLI Weekly data: 
XLI Daily data:
Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation:
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Industrials (XLI -3.00% W/W to 20.72) was down again.
Brazilian aircraft maker Embraer (ERJ -7.0%) was grounded. The customers do not need as many planes as had been anticipated.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Embraer-prnews-3869997795.html?x=0&.v=101
So too did General Electric (GE -5.9%) have a tough week, but their problems are more than just finding fewer orders for jet engines.
Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)
Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLY Monthly data: 
XLY Weekly data: 
XLY Daily data:
Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.85% W/W to 22.10) was not that badly off this week, the reason being that the prior Thursday (before Independence Day), there was a loss of -4.05%.
Target (TGT +0.9%) was up a tad, but that Indian car manufacturer Tata Motors (TTM -9.7%) was hammered again. That’s a two-week loss of -20.0% and a four week loss of -26.6%. I guess the stock did get a little inflated earlier in the year.
Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)
Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLP Monthly data: 
XLP Weekly data: 
XLP Daily data:
Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Consumer Staples (XLP flat W/W) closed the week again at 22.89, which put this defensive sector into first place in the performance derby. With the previous day’s session being down a lot, the six day performance is -2.10%.
Whole Foods (WFMI +7.1% W/W) had been a loser (-4.9%) the previous week. This market is like that; big winner one week and big loser the next week.
Maybe the thief who purchased the stolen Goldman Sachs real-time trading system is putting it to illegal use (Ha!) –- just like GS.
Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)
Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
IYH Monthly data: 
IYH Weekly data: 
IYH Daily data:
Table 7: Senior healthcare equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
The Healthcare sector (IYH -0.61% W/W) closed at 52.42, which was second best sector performer.
The winners were Amgen (AMGN +12.3%) and health insurers Aetna (AET +6.3%) and United Health (UNH +3.2%).
Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)
Here’s the XLF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLF Monthly data: 
XLF Weekly data: 
XLF Daily data:
Table 8: Senior financial company equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
This week, Financials (XLF -3.23% to 11.10) took another loss. With the loss of -3.45% on the prior Thursday, that’s almost a -7% hit in six sessions.
This week, UBS dropped a further -2.43%, all of it on Friday, which was probably an insider trading issue. Over two weeks, the loss is -10.1%, and over four weeks it is -21.4%, so obviously the stock is broken.
Today, in Miami, both UBS and the US Justice Department asked the federal court to postpone the hearing scheduled for this week, putting it off until Aug 3 and 4. They will first try to come to a settlement.
There is no way UBS would cave in to the demands to give up all its records on American clients because that would mean the end of UBS and other Swiss banks that conspire to help Americans evade taxes. So how many billions do you think the fine will be? Ten billion? More? This is big stuff here.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124740851535228233.html
Deutsche Bank (DB +5.0%) gained most, while India’s ICICI Bank (IBN -12.7%) continues to take losses following the government’s new budget that many traders find too loose.
A week or two ago, I remarked that Citi was looking in dreadful shape on the stock charts. This week the C plunged -10.1% W/W, down -3.7% on Friday. The stock is back to $2.59, and has plunged -25.6% over the past 4 weeks and -63.7% YTD and -84.1% over 52 weeks.
Daily charts of electronic brokers and exchanges
Weekly charts of electronic brokers and exchanges
Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)
Tech (XLK -1.68% to 17.53) and Semi-conductors (SMH -2.78% to 20.97) also had losses.
Among tech stocks this week, SAP (SAP +1.6%) and Google (GOOG +1.5%) were winners. SunTech Power Holdings (STP- 21.9% W/W including a loss of -8.2% on Friday) was hurting. The company agreed to drawdown from its convertible loan facility.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Suntech-Announces-Draw-Down-prnews-2909727...
For the semi-conductor stocks, United Microelectronics (UMC +7.1%) was a stand-out as June sales contracts hit the highest level in 11 months. Maybe the company even made money in Q2?
Here’s the SMH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
SMH Monthly data: 
SMH Weekly data: 
SMH Daily data:
Here’s the XLK Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLK Monthly data: 
XLK Weekly data: 
XLK Daily data: 
Table 9: Senior technology equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)
Telecom (IYZ -3.41% to 16.73) was the worst performer of the ten sectors.
The big guys, AT&T (T -4.7%) and Verizon (VZ -5.2%) were hammered.
I wrote up these two a couple weeks ago, looking at more price pull-back but also thinking those prices are starting to look more attractive for put writes in the future on extreme weakness. But not quite yet.
The RSI-7 for the Monthly-Weekly-Daily data series for T (23.44) is 27.7/36.7/28.2 and for VZ (28.62) is 35.9/37.5/23.9. The direction is bearish, but in the case of T, should the Weekly RSI-7 drop below 30 and then revert along with the Daily, I’ll likely write some puts. The dividend is protected by strong cash flow, so the prices are not going to zero for these two.
Here’s the IYZ Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
IYZ Monthly data: 
IYZ Weekly data: 
IYZ Daily data:
Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)
Here’s the XLU Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLU Monthly data: 
XLU Weekly data: 
XLU Daily data:
Utilities (XLU -1.93%) closed at 26.91.
First Energy (FE) did take a loss of over -4% on Thursday prior to July 4, but bounced back this week with a gain of +3.5%. The Weekly and Daily charts are looking good to me, and it wouldn’t take much to turn the Monthly RSI-7 (28.6) up and above 30.
Public Service Enterprise (PEG -3.5%) sank. The stock has had a tough July. The RSI-7 for the Monthly-Weekly-Daily data series for PEG is falling and bearish across the board, with room to move on the downside (42.5/45.8/29.7).
Here is the list of North American Utilities that I follow:
AEP D DUK ED EXC FE FPL NGG PCG PEG SO TRP
For study purposes, there is a good mix of electric (AEP, D, DUK, FE, FPL and SO), gas (NGG, TRP) and diversified (ED, EXC, PCG, PEG) utilities.
Table 12: US Utilities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Bonds & Yields Review
Table 10: US Treasury Yields
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Month | 0.14 | 0.15 | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| 6 Month | 0.23 | 0.23 | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| 2 Year | 0.89 | 0.92 | 0.98 | 1.35 |
| 3 Year | 1.38 | 1.45 | 1.47 | 2.00 |
| 5 Year | 2.22 | 2.32 | 2.42 | 2.92 |
| 10 Year | 3.30 | 3.41 | 3.49 | 3.94 |
| 30 Year | 4.20 | 4.30 | 4.32 | 4.76 |
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2yr AA | 0.97 | 1.05 | 1.11 | 1.21 |
| 2yr AAA | 0.66 | 0.95 | 0.81 | 1.23 |
| 2yr A | 2.18 | 2.11 | 2.19 | 2.04 |
| 5yr AAA | 1.76 | 1.93 | 2.05 | 2.14 |
| 5yr AA | 1.92 | 2.04 | 2.18 | 2.32 |
| 5yr A | 2.25 | 2.29 | 2.77 | 2.68 |
| 10yr AAA | 3.25 | 3.38 | 3.51 | 3.58 |
| 10yr AA | 3.29 | 3.38 | 3.45 | 3.62 |
| 10yr A | 3.83 | 4.04 | 4.15 | 4.14 |
| 20yr AAA | 4.96 | 4.62 | 4.78 | 5.35 |
| 20yr AA | 5.25 | 5.12 | 5.40 | 5.03 |
| 20yr A | 4.84 | 4.93 | 4.88 | 5.06 |
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2yr AA | 1.88 | 2.07 | 2.23 | 2.55 |
| 2yr A | 3.22 | 3.26 | 3.24 | 3.44 |
| 5yr AAA | 2.70 | 2.79 | 2.87 | 3.38 |
| 5yr AA | 3.76 | 3.97 | 3.95 | 4.16 |
| 5yr A | 4.41 | 4.61 | 4.87 | 4.83 |
| 10yr AAA | 4.18 | 4.26 | 4.34 | 4.77 |
| 10yr AA | 4.87 | 4.99 | 5.09 | 4.99 |
| 10yr A | 6.00 | 6.37 | 6.24 | 6.18 |
| 20yr AAA | 5.99 | 6.07 | 6.00 | 6.21 |
| 20yr AA | 5.48 | 5.55 | 5.49 | 5.70 |
| 20yr A | 6.17 | 6.24 | 6.18 | 6.39 |
The US bond market lifted sharply this week. The 20-year Treasury Bonds (TLT +2.05% W/W to close at 96.23) reverted to another winning week following a small loss, which trailed three earlier weeks of gains. TLT had also been up +0.23% on the prior Thursday
The 30-, 10- and 5- year yields closed the week at 4.20, 3.30 and 2.22 down -12 basis points, -19 bp and -20bp respectively. Most of the bond prices did rise a bit on the week and on Thursday.
The T-Bill yield closed the week at 0.140. The yields on bills have traded in an extremely tight range for many weeks now.
Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.
Interest rates and bond yields.
Interactive Daily data charts:
Interactive Chart of Interest rates and bond yields.
This chart is stunning to long-term observers of the debt markets.
US Bond Funds -- Interactive Monthly Data Charts SHY Monthly data series chart:
IEF Monthly data series chart:
TLT Monthly data series chart:
AGG Monthly data series chart:
LQD Monthly data series chart:
TIP Monthly data series chart:
US Bond Funds -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts SHY Weekly data series chart:
IEF Weekly data series chart:
TLT Weekly data series chart:
AGG Weekly data series chart:
LQD Weekly data series chart:
TIP Weekly data series chart:
US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts SHY Daily data series chart:
IEF Daily data series chart:
TLT Daily data series chart:
AGG Daily data series chart:
LQD Daily data series chart:
TIP Daily data series chart:
Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Fannie and Freddie are down to 51 and 55 cents respectively. As friend of Barack Obama and Barney Frank, they continue to trade on the NYSE in violation of the NYSE $1 minimum price rule.
Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts
Mortgage Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
Commodities Review
The $CRB index stumbled again, this time worse, falling -5.02% to 233.51.
The 50d MA for $CRB is now up to 247.84, and the 200-day MA has dropped to 237.46.
A week ago, I remarked that “the falling price now is right on the rising 50-day MA, which ought to be a measure of technical support”. It wasn’t.
Although I use the $CRB (Reuters/Jeffries Index), principally because it’s the oldest, there are many commodity indexes: http://www.crbtrader.com/crbindex/ • Astmax Commodity Index(AMCI) • Commin Commodity Index • Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index • Goldman Sachs Commodity Index • Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index • Rogers International Commodity Index • Standard & Poor's Commodity Index • NCDEX Commodity Index • Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index (DBLCI) • UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index (CMCI)
Here is a link to an article that discusses the major ones that have been around for a while: http://www.rogersrawmaterials.com/overviewandanalysis.PDF
Here is a current price summary of the heaviest weighted commodities contracts: http://money.cnn.com/data/commodities/
These indexes change their component weightings perhaps annually or even monthly, for example: http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/43586-the-new-generation-of-diversif... http://tinyurl.com/a5myfj
Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:
Oil Review
This week, $WTIC dropped -$5.85/bbl (-8.77%) this week to close at 60.88. The loss on the prior Thursday was -3.72%, which has resulted in a terrible six sessions for the Oil Bulls.
For $WTIC, the 50-day MA is at 64.49, up in eight weeks from 51.85. This week’s move in the 50-d MA was considerable.
The 200d MA is now down to 56.45 from 64.84 eight weeks ago, down from 80.84 just sixteen weeks ago.
Three weeks ago, I changed my views on Oil and started selling, but now the price appears to be over-sold.
Here is the e-miNY Dec-07 Crude Oil chart.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:
Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:
Gold & Precious Metals Review
This week, $GOLD gave back a further -$16.50/oz, closing at 913.00, after losing -$10.40/oz the prior week.
Two weeks ago, I remarked in this space: “At times, (Gold) looks ready to soar, but something is holding it back, probably the Fed, IMF and any number of Interventionists who are concerned that the $USD get too weak too quickly.”
A week ago I added, “To me, the gold market looks nervous as more countries are lining up to work a deal to remove the $USD as the world’s reserve currency.”
Like Oil, we think the precious metals, including gold, are over-sold.
The gold 50d Moving Average is now at 934.53 and the 200d MA is 877.31, both rising.
$XAU, GDX and XGD this week were smashed, losing -7.15%, -8.27% and -6.60%, respectively W/W). But this week, except for the strong move higher on Friday, the $USD was up flat. Without dollar strength on Monday coming, there could be a reversal from an over-sold position.
This is a tough market to trade. Let’s see what happens when the $USD falls.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.
Spot silver chart for the week
This week, $SILVER plunged -$0.70/oz or -5.27% W/W to close at 12.69. That’s six straight weeks of losses for silver. Friday was a loss of -1.36%.
Will Monday be kinder to the precious metals Bulls? It wasn’t this week. But, stay tuned.
For $SILVER, the 50d MA is now 14.17, barely rising, and the 200d MA is 12.23, flat, so silver seems it may be quiet for now. The fact that the price is less than the 50-d MA is a clear negative.
Many technical analysts are looking to the silver market for leadership in the precious metals, and are now calling for a Bear phase. I’m still in the Bull camp, awaiting one more Bull cycle run, although it might be a brief one. I am also reviewing this situation closely because the charts are definitely not bullish.
Earlier this week, I remarked that if the Daily chart wasn’t positive, you can turn to the weekly. That threw some people a curve. It was bad writing on my part. Better I should have said was that since last fall, the prices have been rising, and perhaps the pull-back ought to be taken into this light.
I clearly remember the Ian Notley protocol: when studying trends and cycles of equity prices, start with the Monthly to see which way the tide is flowing; then the Weekly to trade the waves; then the Daily to find the wavelets and ripples for execution purposes. So, in a sense, the meaning is that if you make a mistake with the short-term price, look at the longer term price direction.
The problem we independent traders have today is that we need to trade against Goldman Sachs (and their anonymous co-pilot) and all their computers, people, resources. Prices have been very unstable.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.
$PLATINUM lost -$85.70.oz (-7.18% W/W) to 1107.60, which follows a week where the loss was -$17.40/oz.
The 50d MA is now at 1177.94 (no longer rising, but now falling), and the 200d MA is at 1036.04, basically flat.
Definitely there has been a change in sentiment in the past few weeks.
Spot platinum chart for the week
Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.
$PALL lost -$17.10/oz (-6.75%) to close at 236.05. That’s a big loss and adds to negative trader sentiment regarding precious metals at the moment.
The 50d and 200d MA is now at 240.26 and 212.21, respectively, so the present MA prices are still rising, but the current price is now in “no man’s land”.
My thinking, probably skepticism based, is that the Interventionists have pushed down commodity prices as hard as they can before announcing another round of money printing, which they may think is essential to stave a depression. They would be concerned that the money printing on top of commodity prices that a month ago were pushing upper range limits would be received by the public with some hostility. So, knock it down a peg and then watch those prices back into recent trading levels rather than breaking to new high ground.
I have been too busy to read the literature on this, but it’s clearly a feeling I have.
Spot palladium chart for the week
Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.
$COPPER contracts lost -9.40 W/W (-4.08%) to close at 221.15.
The 50d and 200d MA’s are 220.62 (rising) and 188.90 (falling), respectively, so technically the copper price is still in Bull territory, although barely and within a flat trend.
For those who are keen to study the industrial metals like copper, aluminum and zinc, why not look at the powershares DBB, which trades on the NYSE.
http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:DBB
Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.
Table 12: Senior gold equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
The Goldminer indexes and ETFs this week were as follows: $XAU -7.15% to 129.99; GDX -8.27% to 35.14; and XGD -6.60% to 18.41.
As I wrote in this space a week ago, “I had started getting near-term bullish, but along came Thursday when $XAU (-3.00%) and GDX (-2.79%) screeched to a pre-holiday weekend loss as the $USD soared +0.76%... Thanks Timmy. You made my weekend. NOT!”
Traders these days cannot afford to be inactive, which is why we treat as an insult these no-nothing politicians who are on somebody’s payroll, telling us we ought to be paying a speculator tax. You know, many of these same politicians owned many homes in recent years, holding them for rent and re-sale. That had zero to do with price discovery, which is what we active traders are up to.
I’d like to see higher prices for the precious metals in the short-run because that’s the long-term outlook. But, I am also concerned about the holding power of the 880 support in the S&P 500. So, as I remarked here a week ago, “it’s a tough call. Aren’t most of them?”
To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows: NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
LIHR IAG EGO RGLD GOLD TSE_AGI GSS NG WGW AEM
Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF: SLV SIL SVM CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN
Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:
Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:
The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.
Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:
GDX Weekly data:
GDX Daily data:
The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD.
Just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.
Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:
Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:
Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:
Forex Review
The $USD is a trade-weighted US Dollar index, we used to call the Morgan Dollar.
That was 30-40 years ago. You see; JP Morgan controlled the Fed back then too. Nothing’s changed. Jamie Dimon is just the latest front man. Looks good though doesn’t he.
I believe you cannot trade commodities that are priced in $USD without studying forex movement. So, forex is important.
The Forex market is a multi-trillion dollar marketplace every day, which dwarfs the size of the stock and bond markets. In this market, the Euro/USD is the highest volume trader.
The current value of $USD is a mean value of rate fluctuations of six world currencies (Japanese yen, Euro, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc and Swedish krona) that each trade against the USD.
The $USD was flat this week (-0.03% W/W to 80.24), a loss of two cents, but there was a gain of +0.46% on Friday.
The market just isn’t moving much at this point.
The 50-day MA of the $USD is now at 81.02 (still falling). The 200-day MA is 83.76 (basically flat with the prior week). The spread continues widening (bearish).
A break below 79 or above 83 would be major.
Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:
The Euro ($XEU) pulled back -0.49% this week after a loss of -0.66% on Friday to close at 139.33.
The 50d MA and 200d MA for the Euro futures are now 138.50 (still rising) and 133.48 (falling, but barely), respectively, so the present price is still well above both, meaning the Euro is still in a Bull phase, but needs a rising 200d MA to be called a real Bull.
As the spread narrows, the risks of a short-term reversal move decrease.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:
Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:
The Pound dropped -1.07% W/W to close at 162.11. The Pound also had a good-size loss (-0.82%) a week earlier, and maybe over-sold.
The 50d and 200d MA is 159.54 (still rising rapidly) and 153.29 (slowly falling), respectively, so it is in a short-term Bull phase, about to take on a full Bull definition if, as and when the 200-d MA begins to move higher.
Weekly British Pound Index:
Daily British Pound Index:
Weekly Japanese Yen Index:
The Japanese Yen ($XJY) absolutely flew this week (+3.65% against the USD) to close at 108.04. There was a gain of +0.71% on the prior Thursday too.
That Yen strength hurts Japan’s manufacturing exporters like the auto companies as well as gold priced in USD.
The Yen’s 50-day MA is now 103.79 (rising) and the 200-day MA is 104.37 (rising). The current price is now well above both the 50d and the 200d MA, so it’s in a Bull relative to the USD.
Typically, a Bull for the Yen is when I have noticed that gold is under pressure.
So, let’s watch what happens the next day there is a lower $USD and a Yen that is weaker than the USD. Will $GOLD pop?
Daily Japanese Yen Index:
The Canadian Dollar sank this week (-0.34%), with a loss of -0.31% on Friday, taking the Loonie to a close at 85.79.
So the losses continue, which is hard on the gold bulls. Again, let’s see what happens to the price of gold when the Loonie starts to fly.
The Loonie 50-day MA and 200-day MA are now respectively at 87.52 (rapidly rising from 84.57 five weeks ago) and 83.45 (falling).
Trading forex is a dicey game, but the price trends and cycles must be studied nonetheless as they serve as confirmations -- or anomalies -- of other prices.
In the latter case, with an anomaly, the relationship needs to be studied further.
Weekly Canadian Dollar Index:
Daily Canadian Dollar Index:
Here is the China Yuan (CNY) chart.
International Equity Markets Review
The international stock exchange indexes made modest changes again this week, some lifting and some falling.
Over the past eight weeks, the UK FTSE moved from 4348.1 to 4365.3 to 4417.9 to 4438.6 to 4442.0, to 4345.9, to 4201.0, to 4236.3, and now to 4127.2, which is well below where it started.
The German DAX moved from 4737.5 to 4918.8 to 4940.8 to 5077.0 to 5069.2, to 4839.5, to 4776.5, to 4708.2, and now down further to 4576.3, which is lower over eight weeks.
Aussie All-Ords moved from 3758.9 down to 3755.4, but then up to 3813.3 to 3969.0 to 4061.5, before falling to 3894.4, then to 3899.5, to 3826.6, and now down to 3790.6, which is still a tad stronger than it was eight weeks ago. Clearly not a strong Bull.
HK’s Hang Seng moved from 16790.7 to 17062.5 to 18171.0 to 18679.5 to 18889.7, down to 17920.9, then up to 18600.3, then down to 18203.4, before falling this week to 17708.4, which is still stronger than seven weeks ago, but also much weaker than a few weeks ago. This is an exchange that seems to be able to more accurately forecast trends and cycles than most of the others. So, I continue to watch it closely.
Shanghai moved down from 2645.3 to 2597.6, and then in a three day holiday shortened week up to 2632.9 and then to 2753.9, to 2743.8, to 2880.5, to 2928.2, to 3088.4 and now to 3113.9 this week, for a very healthy eight week run. Obviously Bullish.
Brazil’s Bovespa moved from 49007.2 to 50568.5 to 53197.7 to 53341.0 to 55558.2, and then down sharply to 51373.8, to 51485.6, to 50934.7, before dropping to 49221.0, which is not much of a move over eight weeks.
India moved in four weeks from 12173.4 to 13887.2 to 14625.3 to 15103.6 to 15237.9, which was outstanding. But, then the Bombay BSE 30 Sensex index dropped to 14521.9, rallied to 14764.9, then further to 14913.1 a week ago before closing this week at 13504.2. So this index is in rally mode, but still down from five and six weeks ago.
I will repeat my remarks of two weeks ago: “Unless the $USD collapses here – say below 79, which would send the Energy, Basic Materials and Industrials higher – I don’t see the broad equity market lifting in the US. A stagnant $USD will also continue to hold $GOLD from a possible move to former highs just above 1000, possibly keeping it in the 940-1000 range.”
Well, as the $USD strengthened to 80.26 a week ago, and held at 80.24 this week, gold has fallen to 913.00.
There are 16 country index charts from StockCharts.com (with their formal approval btw) because I think it is important to be watching these markets move through a trend juncture together, and in relation to currency and commodity strength or weakness. I also made some additions to the country-based ETF tables as I intend to focus more on ETF’s in 2009. In time, I will also set up more tables and track the domestic market prices. Now that the Drupal platform is in place, it’s just a matter of time and focus for me to expand these tables, and to possibly have separate blog streams.
Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.
Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.
Brazilian Bovespa stockcharts.com chart
Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.
Toronto 300 stockcharts.com chart
Toronto CDNX stockcharts.com chart
Europe
Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.
Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.
FTSE 100 stockcharts.com chart
Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.
Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.
Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.
Italian Milan Index stockcharts.com chart
Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index. Swiss Market Index stockcharts.com chart
Asia-Pacific
Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.
Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.
Tokyo Nikkei 225 Index stockcharts.com chart
Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .
Singapore Straits Times Index stockcharts.com chart
Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .
Shanghai Composite Index stockcharts.com chart
Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .
Hong Kong Hang Seng stockcharts.com chart
Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .
Mumbai BSE 30 Sensex Index stockcharts.com chart
Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .
Sydney All Ordinaries Index stockcharts.com chart
Russia (RTS) stockcharts.com chart
Table 13: International equities via an ETF perspective (in $USD)
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ
Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
U.K. equity market ETF
Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
EWU Daily data: 
Canada’s equity market
Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
Taiwan’s equity market
Here is the Republic of China/Taiwan (EWT) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
US Equity Markets Review
In the US equity market, the bigger picture is still taking shape, and still threatening the lower technical support levels at S&P 880, closing this week at 879.13.
Three weeks ago in this space I remarked, “Volume is low. RSI-7 is now giving mixed signals, which follows a quite bullish phase,” indicating that prices were possibly ready to drop to test support levels (like S&P at 920), and that’s what happened.
This week, the NASDAQ (-2.25% to 1756.03), DJIA (-1.62% to 8146.52), S&P 500 (-1.93% to 879.13), and Russell 2000 small cap index (-3.26% to 480.98) all tanked.
Here is a dozen NASDAQ stocks to watch.
Here is the Monthly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.
Here is the Weekly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.
Here is the Daily data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.
Table 14: Dow 30 List
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well.
(list one)
(list two)
For those of you who are relatively new at trading, or to this blog, why not pull the ten (10) Cara 100 companies out of the DJIA 30 list, and study the links for just these stocks? Keep a hard copy of the Value Line quarterly report plus a record of the Daily-Weekly-Monthly RSI-7 technical indicator. Study up on what the RSI is so you know it and have confidence that it is just like a football game yardstick that shows you how much risk your team is facing when trying to score points. The Cara 100 high-quality company list has the following ten DJIA components:
Wal-Mart (WMT), Disney (DIS), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), McDonalds (MCD), Exxon (XOM), Boeing (BA), Procter & Gamble (PG), IBM (IBM), Intel (INTC), and United Technologies (UTX)
There is no rocket science to these high-quality companies. In your typical week, you shopped at Wal-Mart and along the aisles, mostly the personal consumer products were from Procter & Gamble, except for maybe the baby powder from Johnson & Johnson. On the way there, you may have filled-up at an Exxon gas station, and on the way home, maybe you stopped for a Big Mac or a salad at McDonalds. Overhead, you watched airplanes from Boeing. If you were in a high-rise building, you probably rode in an Otis elevator from United Technologies. Maybe you no longer have an IBM PC, but you do know the company, and your present PC is likely powered by Intel. Every parent's kids want you to take them to Disney… All in all, this is just life we're talking about here. If you are alive, you know these companies like your children. You probably even see more of them… So, just quickly read those Value Line reports – one per company every 13 weeks – and keep an eye on the RSI (momentum) and MACD (trend)… Those guys on Wall Street may be worth a gazillion dollars, but they didn't do it the way you and I have to do it. So, stop listening to their stories that financial engineering and out-sourcing is what's making America strong. That is such a crock. So, live life, use common sense, do only what you understand, feel comfortable, and you'll be surprised at how quickly you can take control and free yourself of the shackles of HB&B.
Value Line Report(s) this past Friday
This week, Value Line reported on four DJIA components: General Electric (GE), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), IBM (IBM), and Intel (INTC). The latter two are Cara 100’s. Once upon a time in America; so was GE.
General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, ex-Cara 100]
(GE: Google Finance file)
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: Billcara2 chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GE: Value Line Report Jul. 10: next one is due Oct. 9)
Always before I study a company, I take a quick look at the Monthly-Weekly- and Daily charts. I also look back at my previous notes in the WIR.
Here are the charts for GE ($11.51 7/10 close):
http://billcara2.com/tkchart/tkchart.asp?stkname=GE&ind=rsi&wt=3
http://billcara2.com/tkchart/tkchart.asp?stkname=GE&ind=rsi&wt=1
http://billcara2.com/tkchart/tkchart.asp?stkname=GE&ind=rsi&wt=0
The RSI-7 for the Monthly/Weekly/Daily is 26.7 (presently falling; bear) / 32.1 (presently falling; bear) / 21.4 (presently falling; bear). A further slide in the Daily will take the RSI-7 of the Weekly price series to under 30, which would then be under 30 for all three time horizons, which I define as the Accumulation Zone. But an AZ is just the point I start getting interested from a long-term (> 1 year) or intermediate-term (> 3 months but < 1 year) perspective. Then I start to look for a Buying Alert signal for entry points as the RSI-7 > RSI-14 and later when the RSI-14 >RSI-21.
So it appears to me that in a falling market, PG will likely take another leg down. Over a couple months, the low RSI-7 values across the M-W-D time horizons would then set up a timely Buy.
Hewlett-Packard [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(HPQ: Google Finance file)
(HPQ: Yahoo Finance file)
(HPQ: StockChart chart)
(HPQ: Billcara2 chart)
(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HPQ: Value Line Report Jul. 10: next one is due Oct. 9)
Always before I study a company, I take a quick look at the Monthly-Weekly- and Daily charts. I also look back at my previous notes in the WIR.
Here are the charts for HPQ ($37.24 7/10 close):
http://billcara2.com/tkchart/tkchart.asp?stkname=HPQ&ind=rsi&wt=3
http://billcara2.com/tkchart/tkchart.asp?stkname=HPQ&ind=rsi&wt=1
http://billcara2.com/tkchart/tkchart.asp?stkname=HPQ&ind=rsi&wt=0
The RSI-7 for the Monthly/Weekly/Daily is 48.7 (presently rising; bull) / 58.0 (presently falling; still a bull) / 43.8 (presently falling; bear), so it appears to me that in a falling market, HPQ will likely take another leg down for the Daily, which would start the Weekly into a bear. Over a couple months, the Monthly RSI-7 values may possibly stay bullish, but I am doubtful based on what I see happening this month with IBM.
IBM [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(IBM: Google Finance file)
(IBM: Yahoo Finance file)
(IBM: StockChart chart)
(IBM: Billcara2 chart)
(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(IBM: Value Line Report Jul. 10: next one is due Oct. 9)
Always before I study a company, I take a quick look at the Monthly-Weekly- and Daily charts. I also look back at my previous notes in the WIR.
Here are the charts for IBM ($100.83 7/10 close):
http://billcara2.com/tkchart/tkchart.asp?stkname=IBM&ind=rsi&wt=3
http://billcara2.com/tkchart/tkchart.asp?stkname=IBM&ind=rsi&wt=1
http://billcara2.com/tkchart/tkchart.asp?stkname=IBM&ind=rsi&wt=0
The RSI-7 for the Monthly/Weekly/Daily is 48.0 (presently falling; a brand new bear) / 43.4 (presently falling; bear) / 33.2 (falling; bear). The RSI-7 data series for IBM appears to me that in a falling market, the stock will likely take another leg down. But with the already low Daily RSI-7, IBM is not a stock I would short.
Over a couple months, the low RSI-7 values across the M-W-D time horizons will likely set up a timely Buy. If I am interested in trading, I will definitely look at the reports done for the Cara Community by Pierre Brodeur.
http://caracommunity.com/blogs/pierre-brodeur/2009/07/ibm-–-july-13th-2009
As you can see, Pierre believes the long-term trend is bullish, with very strong support at 92, and a possible Buying point at about 96.
Intel [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(INTC: Google Finance file)
(INTC: Yahoo Finance file)
(INTC: StockChart chart)
(INTC: Billcara2 chart)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: Value Line Report Jul. 10: next one is due Oct. 9)
Always before I study a company, I take a quick look at the Monthly-Weekly- and Daily charts. I also look back at my previous notes in the WIR.
Here are the charts for INTC ($16.04 7/10 close):
http://billcara2.com/tkchart/tkchart.asp?stkname=INTC&ind=rsi&wt=3
http://billcara2.com/tkchart/tkchart.asp?stkname=IN TC&ind=rsi&wt=1
http://billcara2.com/tkchart/tkchart.asp?stkname=INTC&ind=rsi&wt=0
The RSI-7 for the Monthly/Weekly/Daily is 45.1 (presently falling; but still bullish) / 54.4 (presently falling; but still bullish) / 41.8 (presently rising; but bearish), so it appears to me that in a falling market, INTC will likely take another leg down, possibly threatening to signal an intermediate-term bear, and even a long-term bear. Over a couple months, the low RSI-7 values across the M-W-D time horizons would set up a timely Buy although I do not believe we will get a 30-30-30 Alert.
If I am interested in trading, I will definitely look at the reports done for the Cara Community by Pierre Brodeur.
http://caracommunity.com/blogs/pierre-brodeur/2009/07/intel-–-july-13th-2009
Pierre also interprets his point and figure charts as turning from pessimism to optimism in June, with strong support at 15. He believes most conservative money managers would start buying at 15.50 with a long-term upside target of 26. But, he opines, the economy must improve a lot for that to happen. Presently he believes that the stock is fairly valued at around 17.50, which is close to +10% higher than today’s price.
Before we buy or sell positions at Cara Trading Advisors, we also look closely at the volume studies of Pascal Willain, among other data such as studies of put and call options contracts.
Trading is best done when you evaluate the weight of the evidence (a Joe Granville term), rather than rely on single indicators. The key to success is in understanding that various tools used by analysts of every style (technical, fundamental, quantitative, economic) have some proven elements. Mostly common sense. But these analysts are in the marketing business, so they differentiate their product in some fashion. Ignore their marketing related distinctions and focus on the basic aspect of what they are relying on. Study enough analysts; gather sufficient understanding of the principles of trading and investing; and apply your knowledge slowly, taking on small positions until you start building the confidence and expertise you need to trade full out.
The take-away is that no matter much I know, or think I know, I am a student of the market too, and I work with a peer group to help me make decisions. As long as we are each of an independent mind, and working off the same page, our decisions will tend to be mostly good ones.
It’s not easy because we all know who the enemy is – once you get to a certain level of confidence and expertise, you know that the enemy is no longer you; it’s traders called Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan and their friends in the central banks and government. You also know that in order for those traders to make much profit they have to turn over mega billions in the capital markets, which means they are always pushing the highs and lows in the market, and paying the mainstream media to help them do that. Therein lies our advantage; we just need to take a little profit here, a little there, which we can do by studying the trends and cycles of prices. Simple mathematics helps us do that.
Now as for the Value Line studies of these four DJIA components, I made a few observations:
Analyst George Niemond studies both IBM and Hewlett-Packard. Re HPQ, he says the stock has average long-term appreciation potential despite current economic conditions that should improve in the next fiscal year that starts in the Dec-2009 quarter. He even lowered the Timeliness rating (fundamentals) on Feb 27 from a 2 to a 3. Then, without any explanation whatsoever, other than he thinks the company is likely to do another masterful job at cost-cutting, he bumps his earnings projection for the 4th quarter ending Oct 31 from $0.84 to $1.00. How much cost can management take out? Look at the operating margin (13.5%) and net profit margin (7.1%). Compared to Cara 100 company IBM, where the margins are 23.0% and 13.3% respectively, I hardly think HPQ is a fat cat. In fact, CEO Mark Hurd came in several years ago to cut costs and this has been the common thread of news releases and mainstream media stories ever since. Anyway, people ask why HPQ is not a Cara 100 vs IBM, and I say look to the Return on Capital differential – 16.0% for HPQ and 49.5% for IBM. IBM was able to keep its earnings on the rise this year despite lower revenues, whereas HPQ was not.
Niemond rates the financial strength of both companies at A++ (the highest), but look at the balance sheets compared to say Intel (INTC), which are striking in their differences. Now Intel is one A++ strong company, for sure. Despite sales down almost -20% and earnings for 2009 likely to drop Y/Y from $0.92 to $0.55, those INTC dividends are secure. The operating margin (39.0%) and net profit margin (19.0%) expected for the next few years are huge. Admittedly, the Return on Capital has dropped to unacceptable levels the past two years and this one as well, but soon should start to turn higher, and go higher from there as the economy reverts to normal growth levels. The product line of this broadline semiconductor maker is going to expand in the mobile and wireless communications fields, with a new strategic alliance with (Cara 100) telephony maker Nokia (NOK), and that will help.
As for GE, the company’s financial strength rating was lowered to B+. Earlier this year, the Safety rating was lowered from a 2 to 3. Revenue, cash flow, earnings and dividends metrics are in bad shape. The problem for traders is that (i) who knows when the economy is going to turn, and more importantly for GE, (ii) who knows if the company’s bad debt provisions are as high as needed at GE Capital, which is the unit that is sucking the life out of GE. In the long-run, I do like GE, and do think it will return to glory years. The problem is that in the long-run, we are all dead, even CEO Jeff Immelt. Analyst Orly Seidman has done a good write-up. If the stock performs as he expects, the annual Total Return (TR), which comes from dividends and capital growth, could be from +33% to +44% he reports. I wonder if Mr. Seidman’s personal portfolio is doing as well.
Two weeks ago, I was negative on the near-term outlook for AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ) and then one week T dropped -1.05% while VZ plunged -2.93%. This week, T and VZ plunged -4.7% and -5.2% respectively. So, in the two weeks since I gave the heads-up, T and VZ have dropped -5.67% and -7.94%.
I remarked two weeks ago, “At some point these prices will come to you and with the protection of a solid dividend you might think about writing puts. But for now, I am not focused on these telecom stocks because neither is in an accumulation or distribution zone at this point.”
You just have to know that two weeks ago there were sales “professionals” touting these stocks and investment “professionals” buying them because of their “monster” dividends. The results are in: July 8 dividends for T and VZ were $0.41 and $0.46 and the losses in the share prices were -$1.17 and -$2.13 per share respectively.
That’s why you come here – to learn how to invest and trade.
Let’s re-play that June 28 Week In Review of the DJIA stocks that were evaluated by Value Line:
[June 28] This week, Value Line reported on two DJIA components: AT&T (T), and Verizon (VZ), my two least favorites.
I still remember that movie when George Segal and Jane Fonda, I think, robbed the telephone company in front of the line up of customers paying their bills. The people in the theater cheered. How many years ago was that anyway? Has anything changed?
AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(T: Google Finance file)
(T: Yahoo Finance file)
(T: StockChart chart)
(T: Billcara2 chart)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: Value Line Report Jun. 26: next one is due Sept. 25)
Always before I study a company, I take a quick look at the Monthly-Weekly- and Daily charts:
http://billcara2.com/tkchart/tkchart.asp?stkname=T&ind=rsi&wt=3
http://billcara2.com/tkchart/tkchart.asp?stkname=T&ind=rsi&wt=1
http://billcara2.com/tkchart/tkchart.asp?stkname=T&ind=rsi&wt=0The RSI-7 for the Monthly/Weekly/Daily is 32.2 / 49.1 / 63.1 vs the RSI-7 for VZ at 44.8 / 60.7 / 73.0, which could indicate that VZ has gotten ahead of the pack, and maybe due for a sharper correction.
I also look back at my previous notes, but now I see I had none because that was the weekend of the Cara Bahamas 2009 Conference, 13 weeks ago now. My, how time flies. Seems just like a telephone call, at the speed of light. :-)
As for my assessment of T and VZ, I believe they will have another leg down, but I would not go short because the Monthly and Weekly RSI-7’s are mid-range and rising. That means after another short-term pull-back, these two stocks ought to be fairly low risk purchases for the long run. As for me, I wouldn’t buy them (they lack the quality I’m looking for), but a series of put writes in a Bull phase ought to work out pretty well.
As for the Value Line analysis of AT&T, they lowered the Timeliness and Technical to 3 and 4 respectively in the past 4 weeks, but did the same for Verizon this week. That might cause some extra selling in VZ.
The T is trading at 24.82 and the report was written at 24.22 when the dividend yield was 6.9%. That’s very high and likely secure despite the relatively high payout ratio.
The T dividend will likely be $1.64 this year, up a tad from 1.60 in 2008, and likely not going to be more than about 1.68 in 2010.
Only mobile is selling well, but the company has a strong offering of wireless.
I can see more cost-cutting here, which means higher productivity. So, I’m not as negative as I usually am. It’s just not prime time for T to shoot higher.
Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(VZ: Google Finance file)
(VZ: Yahoo Finance file)
(VZ: StockChart chart)
(VZ: Billcara2 chart)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: Value Line Report Jun. 26: next one is due Sept. 25)
Here are the Monthly-Weekly- and Daily charts:
http://billcara2.com/tkchart/tkchart.asp?stkname=VZ&ind=rsi&wt=3
http://billcara2.com/tkchart/tkchart.asp?stkname=VZ&ind=rsi&wt=1
http://billcara2.com/tkchart/tkchart.asp?stkname=VZ&ind=rsi&wt=0The RSI-7 for the Monthly/Weekly/Daily is 44.8 / 60.7 / 73.0 vs the RSI-7 for T at 32.2 / 49.1 / 63.1.
So after the next short-term pull-back, of these two stocks, I’d be writing puts in T as by then the RSI-7 across the three time horizons would be lower, meaning my risk is less.
The Value Line report was written at 29.54 and the stock is now 30.99, which was the #1 performer in the DJIA index this week. In fact, T was #3.
The dividend yield is about 6.0%, and the dividend is likely to increase from 1.78 in 2008 to 1.87 this year and maybe 1.95 in 2010.
Just like T, the high dividend protects the stock price on the downside as the cash flows of these companies are relatively stable.
Like T, the earnings of VZ are not exciting in terms of growth, but they are fairly stable.
One more leg down on the Daily charts and the stock will be looking very good for long-run positioning. I’d not buy the stock due to it’s lacking the quality I need, but I would consider writing a series of puts after every short-term price pull-back.
A week ago I wrote up Boeing (BA), where I opined that I would not be interested in buying the stock, but if the plane was found not to be able to fly (for a while yet at least), there might be a sharp pull-back at which point maybe some put writes might be in order.
I don’t care much for the broad market trading environment in terms of making acquisitions right now, but if there were another pull-back, I would recommend a program of put writes, call purchases, and outright stock purchases. Of course, we all have to see whether the Dreamliner can actually fly as advertised. We shouldn’t have to wait long for that.
Well, there was a delay in the test flight and BA got hammered. You see, I think I can smell risk. I hate taking risk. BA is a good example. The stock plummeted -13.54% this week, closing at $41.88.
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?ba
I might suggest some put writes, but I won’t. I haven’t looked at the stock at all this week. Too busy.
Well, just nine trading sessions later, the T and VZ dropped -5.67% and -7.94% and the Monthly-Weekly-Daily RSI-7 turned south from 32.2/49.1/63.1 to 27.7/36.7/28.2 for T and from 44.8/60.7/73.0 to 35.9/37.5/23.9 for VZ.
Getting close to that exciting Accumulation Zone for these two, which I feel is just around the corner. A stumble here and a stumble there and Mr. Market will be ready to pick himself up and start running up-hill again.
Oh, and as for that warning to avoid Boeing I gave three weeks ago, BA has plunged -18.2% from 48.44 to 39.65 in just 14 trading sessions. Yes, nobody has seen the Dreamliner fly yet. The scheduled test flight was postponed. Being the skeptic I am I figure the day Boeing re-schedules that flight will be the cycle bottom for the S&P 500.
It would be appropriate if the two soared together. I really do like Boeing; they employ many skilled people and contractors who make real things that we see every day and use frequently. Of course, I don’t care much for the WMD but they go a long way to keep America protected, and I’m all for that.
In any case, at that cycle-bottoming time, I anticipate writing puts on these stocks (BA, T and VZ). I also anticipate earning 100%+ gains within a couple weeks of that timed entry.
They say market timing doesn’t work. It works. “They” -- being the Masters of HB&B -- don’t work, as most of us now see. They don’t need to work – they have the legislation, the lobbyists and their people in place in key White House and Administration roles to ensure their ongoing protection. If this was a story about the mob, they would be called the “made men”… wiseguys like Robert Hormats who just took another important inside government job.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/bob-hormats/
http://www.muckety.com/Robert-D-Hormats/4089.muckety
Btw, for those who think that Goldman Sachs doesn’t take in twice as much in trading against the client than they do in investment banking and asset management services – some $30+ billion of the over $50 billion in net revenue (at least) this year, net of the $20 billion they intend to pay out in bonuses to a few of their 28,000 employees, which they say will exceed those of record-setting 2007 – read their website. Read it and weep because your losses are their profits.
http://www2.goldmansachs.com/our-firm/about-us/index.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goldman_Sachs
Don’t expect to see how many tens of millions that Hormats takes home from GS each year for essentially making sure nobody rocks the GS/HB&B boat.
And don’t expect to see how much profit Goldman Sachs made by trading the $10 billion+ they took in from ex-CEO/Chairman Henry Paulson’s TARP “bail-out” fund, rammed through when the man was acting as the People’s Treasury Secretary.
But I digress. Just the mention of Washington and Wall Street in the same sentence gets me off on a tangent until I get too nauseous to continue. That usually happens just before I do the wrap-up – because it’s always on my mind.
Wouldn’t it be nice if we could just trade capital markets without these Interventionists beating on us? Beating on us with OPM -– client funds, previous profits taken in the market from us, and now funds courtesy of the taxpayer in the form of TARP. Wow, no wonder somebody stole their real-time trading system in the past month, which, following Bernie Madoff in 2008 is probably the story of the year 2009 in NYC.
The Dow 30 Company links in chronological order of the upcoming reports.
Alcoa [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(AA: Google Finance file)
(AA: Yahoo Finance file)
(AA: StockChart chart)
(AA: Billcara2 chart)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: Value Line Report Apr. 17: next one is due Jul. 17)
Dupont [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(DD: Google Finance file)
(DD: Yahoo Finance file)
(DD: StockChart chart)
(DD: Billcara2 chart)
(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DD: Value Line Report Apr. 17: next one is due Jul. 17)
Merck [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(MRK: Google Finance file)
(MRK: Yahoo Finance file)
(MRK: StockChart chart)
(MRK: Billcara2 chart)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: Value Line Report Apr. 17: next one is due Jul. 17)
Pfizer [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(PFE: Google Finance file)
(PFE: Yahoo Finance file)
(PFE: StockChart chart)
(PFE: Billcara2 chart)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: Value Line Report Apr. 17: next one is due Jul. 17)
United Technologies [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(UTX: Google Finance file)
(UTX: Yahoo Finance file)
(UTX: StockChart chart)
(UTX: Billcara2 chart)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: Value Line Report Apr. 24: next one is due Jul. 24)
Caterpillar [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(CAT: Google Finance file)
(CAT: Yahoo Finance file)
(CAT: StockChart chart)
(CAT: Billcara2 chart)
(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CAT: Value Line Report Apr. 24: next one is due Jul. 24)
Coca Cola [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KO: Google Finance file)
(KO: Yahoo Finance file)
(KO: StockChart chart)
(KO: Billcara2 chart)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: Value Line Report May 1: next one is due Jul 31)
Kraft Foods [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KFT: Google Finance file)
(KFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(KFT: StockChart chart)
(KFT: Billcara2 chart)
(KFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KFT: Value Line Report May 1: next one is due Jul 31)
Wal-Mart [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(WMT: Google Finance file)
(WMT: Yahoo Finance file)
(WMT: StockChart chart)
(WMT: Billcara2 chart)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: Value Line Report May 8: next one is due Aug 8)
Disney [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(DIS: Google Finance file)
(DIS: Yahoo Finance file)
(DIS: StockChart chart)
(DIS: Billcara2 chart)
(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DIS: Value Line Report May 15: next one is due Aug. 15)
3M Company [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara US 100 June 25-06]
(MMM: Google Finance file)
(MMM: Yahoo Finance file)
(MMM: StockChart chart)
(MMM: Billcara2 chart)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: Value Line Report May 15: next one is due Aug. 15)
American Express [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AXP: Google Finance file)
(AXP: Yahoo Finance file)
(AXP: StockChart chart)
(AXP: Billcara2 chart)
(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AXP: Value Line Report May 22: next one is due Aug. 22)
Bank of America [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(BAC: Google Finance file)
(BAC: Yahoo Finance file)
(BAC: StockChart chart)
(BAC: Billcara2 chart)
(BAC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BAC: Value Line Report May 22: next one is due Aug. 22)
JP Morgan [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(JPM: Google Finance file)
(JPM: Yahoo Finance file)
(JPM: StockChart chart)
(JPM: Billcara2 chart)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: Value Line Report May 22: next one is due Aug. 22)
Microsoft [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(MSFT: Google Finance file)
(MSFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(MSFT: StockChart chart)
(MSFT: Billcara2 chart)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: Value Line Report May 22: next one is due Aug. 22)
Johnson & Johnson [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(JNJ: Google Finance file)
(JNJ: Yahoo Finance fle)
(JNJ: StockChart chart)
(JNJ: Billcara2 chart)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: Value Line Report Feb. 27: next one is due Aug 29)
McDonalds [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(MCD: Google Finance file)
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: Billcara2 chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: Value Line Report Jun. 5: next one is due Sept. 4)
Chevron Corp [GICS 10, Dow 30]
(CVX: Google Finance file)
(CVX: Yahoo Finance file)
(CVX: StockChart chart)
(CVX: Billcara2 chart)
(CVX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CVX: Value Line Report Jun. 12: next one is due Sept. 11)
ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(XOM: Google Finance file)
(XOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(XOM: StockChart chart)
(XOM: Billcara2 chart)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: Value Line Report Jun. 12: next one is due Sept. 11)
Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30. Cara 100]
(BA: Google Finance file)
(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: Billcara2 chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BA: Value Line Report Jun. 19: next one is due Sept. 18)
AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(T: Google Finance file)
(T: Yahoo Finance file)
(T: StockChart chart)
(T: Billcara2 chart)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: Value Line Report Jun. 26: next one is due Sept. 25)
Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(VZ: Google Finance file)
(VZ: Yahoo Finance file)
(VZ: StockChart chart)
(VZ: Billcara2 chart)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: Value Line Report Jun. 26: next one is due Sept. 25)
Procter & Gamble Co. [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Google Finance file)
(PG: Yahoo Finance file)
(PG: StockChart chart)
(PG: Billcara2 chart)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: Value Line Report Jul. 3: next one is due Oct. 2)
Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(HD: Google Finance file)
(HD: Yahoo Finance file)
(HD: StockChart chart)
(HD: Billcara2 chart)
(HD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HD: Value Line Report Jul. 3: next one is due Oct. 2)
General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, ex-Cara 100]
(GE: Google Finance file)
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: Billcara2 chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GE: Value Line Report Jul. 10: next one is due Oct. 9)
Hewlett-Packard [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(HPQ: Google Finance file)
(HPQ: Yahoo Finance file)
(HPQ: StockChart chart)
(HPQ: Billcara2 chart)
(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HPQ: Value Line Report Jul. 10: next one is due Oct. 9)
IBM [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(IBM: Google Finance file)
(IBM: Yahoo Finance file)
(IBM: StockChart chart)
(IBM: Billcara2 chart)
(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(IBM: Value Line Report Jul. 10: next one is due Oct. 9)
Intel [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(INTC: Google Finance file)
(INTC: Yahoo Finance file)
(INTC: StockChart chart)
(INTC: Billcara2 chart)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: Value Line Report Jul. 10: next one is due Oct. 9)
Wrap-up:
As Mr. Market gets closer to a long-term cycle bottom, it becomes easier on the nerves to write puts. By putting on what some might call stink bids, even if you get filled when the put is exercised, you will end up with very inexpensive stock. If you limit your trades to positions in high quality companies, you will have worse things happen in your life.
I’m on vacation starting in a few hours. I’ll publish the morning Community Chat, and then fly out Cubana Air. Presumably it’s on a jet plane, probably a Russian-built Ilyushin Il-62M. If so, that would be my first.
I hopefully will return to publish next Saturday’s report. Who knows, maybe I’ll like the place so much I’ll want to stay to help Fidel and Raúl build a capital market system? Do you think? (smiley goes here)
I do know that Geoff, Patrick and korvus will ensure you are appropriately entertained, and the clients well taken care of. Enjoy your week.
