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Bill Cara’s Blog for February 8, 2010

Morning Call [6:55am ET] Greek bank shares are getting hammered, and so too are bank shares across Europe. Could Greece be Lehman Bros v.2? According to zerohedge.com’s Tyler Durden, the money flowing out of Greece since November constitutes a bank run.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/run-greece-here-investors-pull-out-€10-billion-troubled-country-crisis-escalation-here

I let the share prices tell me the story, and this morning Greece is the largest blip on the radar screen. Whether or not that continues, we’ll have to monitor the situation closely.

Blog_Feb_8.1.GIF

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Week in Review #6, 2010

[1:50pm] As I see it there are more negative high-impact events on the horizon than positive ones for the independent capital markets trader. Fighting for top spot are (i) the government debt crises (from sovereign debt of countries like Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain [PIGS] to state debt like California, Florida, New Jersey, Ohio, Michigan and Illinois), and (ii) regulatory reform, so sorely needed by workers and capital owners of the world, but being fought tooth and nail by Humungous Bank & Broker (HB&B) in the US Congress today.

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Tables & Charts for Friday, Feb 5, 2010

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Bill Cara’s Blog for February 5, 2010 [See post-close report]

Morning Call [6:21am ET] The first hour and the last in yesterday’s trading session in New York were the worst of the day. During the evening and early morning today, the damage has spread. On every battlefield you look, from Tokyo, Seoul, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Sydney, Singapore, Mumbai, and now (at least to this point) to London, Frankfurt, and Paris, the results are apparent; the average seems to be that for every 100 soldiers, 78 are down or wounded, seven missing, and 15 still vertical. You can smell the black powder. This is war.

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Bill Cara’s Blog for February 4, 2010 [See post-close report]

Morning Call [6:58am ET] Because the capital losses we take are so frequent and hurtful, traders have a psychological need to pat themselves on the back occasionally when things go as planned. Today I will give you the anatomy of a single trade, done behind the scenes while the rest of you were listening to me say something about operating like a surgeon, calling a small bounce in $GOLD and pullback in the $USD.

Leading up to the trade, you read the following words in my Morning Call:

Thursday Jan. 28 (7:31am ET) /

Remember; we trade prices, not stories.

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Tables & Charts for Thursday, Feb 4, 2010

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Tables & Charts for Tuesday, Feb 2, 2010

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Bill Cara’s Blog for February 3, 2010 [See port-close report]

Morning Call [7:55am ET] The Davos Conference was summed up nicely by News Corp’s sister companies, The Times and Wall St Journal, in stating: (i) bankers don’t get it, and (ii) how low can the Dollar go to continue flooding US taxpayer money into emerging economies in the hopeful pursuit of ‘Monkey See, Monkey Do’?

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB4000142405274870410720457503901397884223...

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Bill Cara’s Blog for February 2, 2010 [See post-close report]

Morning Call [7:57am ET] The biggest auditor of the biggest banks in the world, with over $1 trillion equity invested, is PricewaterhouseCoopers. Looking down their list of clients, with almost half of the top 15, I think 'too big to audit' should be the issue.

Rather than obtaining testimony this week just from Paul Volcker (today) and a few CEO’s of the largest banks (Thursday), I think the public also needs to hear from the independent auditors.

PwC’s preeminent client list:
• JP Morgan Chase 156.17B, world’s largest bank

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Tables & Charts for Monday, Feb 1, 2010

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Bill Cara’s Blog for February 1, 2010 [See post-close report]

Morning Call [7:15am ET] If you have looked at the recent Cara 100 Global Best Companies list, you will see that I added The Bank of Nova Scotia (NYSE:BNS) or Scotiabank as it is now called. Of only nine items in the Financials, I also have Royal Bank of Canada (NYSE:RY).

http://caracommunity.com/sites/default/files/user6/02Cara100modelportfol...

Writing in the NY Times yesterday, Paul Krugman called it just as I see it: “Good and Boring”. The way banking should be.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/01/opinion/01krugman.html?emc=eta1

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Week in Review #5, 2010

[4:45pm] It appears we are all afflicted with “Chinese Curse Syndrome”. With this week’s seeming explanations from Geithner and Paulson of their role in the recent global financial crisis, of the reappointment of Bernanke, of the threat to Goldman Sachs of something called “the Volcker Plan”, and of an equity market that continues to sink, can anyone say we don’t live in interesting times?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_you_live_in_interesting_times

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Tables & Charts for Friday, Jan 29, 2010

Sorry for posting this late again.

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Bill Cara’s Blog for January 29, 2010 [See post-close report]

Morning Call [7:11am ET]

The dictionary defines posturing as the striking a pose for effect, and a posturer as one who assumes an artificial or pretended attitude. Thus it follows that if you accept the goings on at Davos 2010, you have been attitudinized, which is to say you have assumed an affected mental attitude, precisely what consensus the gathering in Davos is there to build.

People, don’t fall for that stuff or else you will lose your shirt.

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Tables & Charts for Thursday, Jan 28, 2010

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Bill Cara’s Blog for January 28, 2010 [See post-close report]

Morning Call [7:31am ET] From Davos 2010, Soros warns that gold is the ‘ultimate bubble’.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/davos/7085504/Davos-201...

Is George talking his book again or is the USD ready to break out to the upside, dropping gold a further 100 or 200 Dollars from its present 1090, already down -$139 (-12.3%) from the Dec 3 high of 1229? The charts clearly show a bear trend developing, which makes sense given that major central banks have begun tightening.

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Tables & Charts for Wednesday, Jan 27, 2010

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Bill Cara’s Blog for January 27, 2010 [See post-close report]

Morning Call [8:05am ET] Today is expected to be the most revealing of the year to date in terms of possible actions and reactions from Washington and Wall Street. Traders ought to be focused. Stay tuned.

Yesterday, we provided this framework, which several people commented positively on, so we may continue it periodically.

US: Dow Jones Industrials $INDU 10,194.29 -2.57 -0.03%
Recommendation: Lighten into rallies
Support: 10,160 – 9,913
Resistance: 10,500 ‐ 10,729

US: SP500 $SPX 1,092.17 -4.61 -0.42%
Recommendation: Lighten into rallies
Support: 1,083 – 1,064

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Tables & Charts for Tuesday, Jan 26, 2010

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Bill Cara’s Blog for January 26, 2010 [See post-close report]

Morning Call [7:46am ET] Today appears to be a Deleveraging Day.

[WIR#4] Every time there is a tightening, as there was this week, equity prices fall because the debts against them are being called. Commodity contracts, which have been pushed up in price because of increased debt, and not for economic reasons, also fall as well… Some call this the forced lowering of speculation or the replacement of fiction with fact.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speculation

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