Johnny, with respect to the AD line you also have to understand how it is calculated and plotted. In particular if there is a large volume spike intraday, it will depend on what time frame you are looking at. The mods to the AD line depend on where the stock closed in a particular time frame, (high, upper, middle lower or low), as whether it is added - subtracted or neutral. Shifting the time frame can easily move a spike from add to subtract.
See the following article which explains this in detail.
Yes he's always rather blunt and pointed with his opinions.
"They'll keep printing money until we run out of trees."
True in concept, but I'm sure he knows that US money is actually made of 3/4 cotton and 1/4 linen. However the US bonds and treasury notes are probably printed on paper.
At the end of the presentation a 10 year chart was shown promoting the long term hold / leverage performance of GG compared to just holding the physical. Been in and out of GG a few times over the past years so it perked my interest and knowing how statistics are selectively chosen I just had to pull up a few charts.
Yes the 10 year is impressive, but also note how the 4 -1/2 year chart shows significant under performance to gold.
Yes it is possible, here's an annotated test chart of SLW I just made up as an example. Its a direct link to the Stockcharts charting page to a chart I saved in my account. Note you could also save the chart on your computer, annotate it and then upload a static copy of the chart here on Bill's site, just use the file attach option shown below the posting section.
The details of how to do this are covered in the help article on Chart and Link Posting. You can find it under the menu above, Site Index >> Website Help >> Chart and Link Posting. Or just use the direct link below.
Note this article also identifies the problem this site has in automatically making a working link for any URL's which have special characters, the dollar symbol is one problem in particular as all index charts at Stockchart start with $ XXX.
I covered this subject last weekend in a post, but you might have missed it. Sept 17, post #69510.
Its actually not the ? in the URL thats the problem, its the $. (note: all index charts at Stockcharts start with $)
If I change Michaels chart reference to be the SPY instead of the S&P index the link will be created automatically, to the same chart settings, we'll just loose the annotations which were added to the index chart. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPy&p=W&st=2000-0...
The Drupal software used here on Bills site will usually convert a URL into an active link in a post, however there are a few special characters which will negate that process and the URL will just be shown as text and not turned into a usable link, the $ is one of those characters.
Using the TinyURL method is one workaround the other is to use some special HTML href= coding. Both of these methods along with other hints on chart and link posting are shown in the Help section of this website, top menu: SiteIndex >> Website Help >> Chart and Link Posting. Or just use this direct link, http://caracommunity.com/content/chart-and-link-po...
Yes I also saw that short article on Bloomberg and couldn't believe it, so had to do a little more digging. Here's a better link, again on Bloomberg, but it gives the whole story, so its much less misleading. Yes it seems they are giving up on trying to totally turn it off, they are now focusing on attaching another riser which will allow the oil to flow unobstructed, directly into a ship. Its NOT really like they were thinking of just letting it flow into the gulf until August sometime, or until the relief wells are successful. How many times do we find there's a totally different story behind the first headline.
Hi Seamus, yes its an interesting subject / discussion with many opinions, and various sites do take a few liberties in how they calculate these numbers. Particularly for indicators that involve running averages in the calc as the RSI does.
I agree the VXX has traded for 15 months, however most would ignore the one trading day in Jan 2009, thus the first monthly gain loss could not be calculated until the end of March 2009. Also as March 2010 is still an incomplete month many would not use it as yet. In any case most use it as just a relative indicator rather than an absolute number.
How did you calc the Monthly RSI-7 at 45.36 , I can't seem to verify that one anywhere, maybe I'll have to go to the excel spreadsheet and do the calcs myself.
Thanks for the input, I'm always trying to learn more.
"VXX now has a monthly RSI 7 of ZERO. Has anyone ever seen a zero on the triple RSI screen before?
Bob"
Yes I've seen it before, usually when there is an error in the calculation or not enough data to properly do the calculation. The VXX started back around Jan last year so there is very little monthly data, about 12 or 13 months. If I look at he error bugging section at the bottom of the RSI tool, I see that Korvus uses 19 data points to calc any of the RSI 7 values and I see lots of zeros in the data stream for the monthly RSI data.
Thus I would assume the "Zero" value reported for VXX monthly RSI-7 is not correct based on faulty and limited input data. If I check StockCharts they have the value around 8 and similar values for the weekly and daily numbers. (note the two are never exactly the same but usually close)
I always find when you see something unusual, its best to check it out, before assuming its correct. Just my 2 cents on the subject.
Nebish, don't really need the tiny URL unless the link contains certain characters which are a problem for the site here. In most cases you can just paste the link into your post. For more instructions on link posting and Tiny URL try the help file, see the menu at the top of this page "Site Index" >> "Website Help" >> ""Chart and Link Posting" or use the direct link below.
Baz22, could be that the two different batches contained different levels of ethanol. They are continually trying to increase the ethanol content which will give you less MPG as I understand it.
Nemo Great write up and I totally agree, although being from Canada I haven't been following this US bill that closely, at the present time.
" It's like a sales tax " Well not quite, a sales tax is normally collected from the buy by the seller and submitted to the gov. In this case the gov will collect from both parties, the seller and the buyer will each be responsible for submitting 0.25% for a total of 0.5%. Thats just the first half, the second half of the round trip trade will generate another 0.5% for the gov. So they are looking a more like 1% for each total round trip transaction.
I also agree the accountants as usual have extrapolated the current trading volumes and assumed they will continue unchanged. Thus they are seeing huge revenues from this, what they fail to understand is that the future volume will not be on the same trend line.
I don't think you can get anything for stocks directly on the Japanese exchanges. The data comes from Yahoo and I can't seem to find the direct symbol for Toyota on that exchange. Note there also has to be historical data in the Yahoo database in order to calc the RSI D-W-M values.
For more info on the RSI tool, just go to the menu at the top of this page, "Site Index" >> "Website Help" >> "RSI Tool". or use the direct link below, the instructions should help with most of your questions.
Westcoaster, BSI can probably give you a better explanation but I'll through in my ideas.
First Stockcharts has a pretty good explanation of candles in their chart school section, see the link below, in particular the sections on Dragon Fly and Gravestone Doji's along with the sections on Long Shadow Reversals. http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_sc...
Now as for some charts, I put together a quick scan in the Stockcharts advanced scan engine as follows and included an image of the charts the scan returned.
[type = stock]
and [Close > 5]
and [SMA(20,close) * SMA(20,volume) > 500000]
and [volume > SMA(20,volume)* 1.25]
and [[Hammer is true] or [Shooting Star is true] or [Gravestone Doji is true] or [Dragonfly Doji is true]]
Basically the scan is looking for any of those types of candles, bearish or bullish. I also included my standard liquidity requirement of trading Min $500k per day average and I wanted todays volume to be 25% more than the SMA 20 average volume, as I find that also helps to validate the long tail reversal. You could also tweak it a bit by specifying a min tail length in percentage terms.
RE your request for additions to the daily market report. As I like to look at databases in chart form is it possible to add a link in the RSI tables were we could view the RSI D-W-M data for a particular stock as a chart. I find it helps to see how the flow between them develops over time.
Attached is a chart of GOOG for the last 2 years with the 3 RSI's overlayed. Note I can't do this directly in Stockcharts, I had to produce each graph separately and then overlay them with the PainNet image program.
I wouldn't want to see all the charts directly in the Market report, just a link if we wanted to pull them up.
As to the current rating system proposal, it should only apply to post removal as inappropriate, ie X removal votes and it is hidden to be reviewed later by the admin panel. We shouldn't have to be voting just to keep regular posts from being hidden.
However even just voting on inappropriate posts puts undue work on the admin panel. Many sites use the report a TOS (Terms of Service), violation procedure. There is a button for TOS violation which brings up a form where you have to identify the specific violation and also the context of the whole situation which may have spanned several posts.
Blogs and text are difficult as so much of our direct communication is through body language and facial expression, which are all missing here. Face to face we can easily see that a comment has been taken out of context and instantly react to correct the situation. But here on the blog it may have been a quick post on the way to work, only to read later on that evening the barrage of posts debating the pros and cons of your post and all the comments totally misread what you were trying to say. It happens.
Reminds me of a quote years ago, went something like this.
"I know you think you understand what you thought I said, but unfortunately what I said was not exactly what I meant".
As far as the format I prefer the Twin or multi blog system;
1) Day trading, scalping chat line, similar to the minute by minute posts on part of Vad's site or many other sites.
2) Cara 100 ( or Cara 100 plus wannabee 100's, as picked by Bill), short / med / long term outlook. A place where the discussion and targets are beyond the EOD. Cara 100 stocks and longer term outlooks for energy, commodities, tech, bio etc., the sectors we should be preparing for weeks or months in advance. I see it being more of a research blog where participation could be every few days or even weekly and still keep up.
WRT the Free speech argument, yes I agree, go set up your own blog and say whatever you want, but it doesn't apply everywhere, anytime. You cannot yell FIRE in a crowded theater, you cannot tell stag party jokes at my children's Christmas party, etc. and telling the host and everyone else they can just ignore you is not good enough, I would ask you to leave.
This site is Bill's living room, his name is over the door, he is our host and I view adding value as the minimum price of admission.
Of course it all depends on your point of view and currency of reference.
The attached chart is Gold in different currencies and yes in US$ Gold is making new highs, based on the assumption of constant currency value. But in other currencies the Feb high is yet to be taken out. If I look at from another viewpoint, say Gold is the worlds constant currency, then the chart just shows which currencies are leading the pack to the downside of real value.
Being from Canada I always tend to look at my asset (gains / losses) as to what they will purchase on the world market and not just in my local currency.
With respect to stocks churning, I'm also seeing alot of that too.
Bill, excellent week in review as usual. I will study it in more detail after I finish raking the leaves, something you no longer have to do, enjoy the beach.
Note the link in your wrap-up to the Peter Simmons article seems to have been truncated, here is the correct one, thanks to Bobbyo for finding it in your Cara archives.
I am very sorry to read about your loss, my thoughts are with you, your family and Peter's family.
I also agree with what others have said here, you need to focus on what is good for you right now, take some time off and enjoy. I know you enjoy this blog, however there are good stresses and bad stresses that come along with it. Hopefully the team can find a way to eliminate the bad stresses and let you focus only on the joy and satisfaction the good stresses can bring.
Bill, sounds great, however I suspect those MB's are actually GB's.
Good luck, that should solve many problems for at least a couple of years.
Johnny, with respect to the AD line you also have to understand how it is calculated and plotted. In particular if there is a large volume spike intraday, it will depend on what time frame you are looking at. The mods to the AD line depend on where the stock closed in a particular time frame, (high, upper, middle lower or low), as whether it is added - subtracted or neutral. Shifting the time frame can easily move a spike from add to subtract.
See the following article which explains this in detail.
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_sc...
Yes he's always rather blunt and pointed with his opinions.
"They'll keep printing money until we run out of trees."
True in concept, but I'm sure he knows that US money is actually made of 3/4 cotton and 1/4 linen. However the US bonds and treasury notes are probably printed on paper.
At the end of the presentation a 10 year chart was shown promoting the long term hold / leverage performance of GG compared to just holding the physical. Been in and out of GG a few times over the past years so it perked my interest and knowing how statistics are selectively chosen I just had to pull up a few charts.
Yes the 10 year is impressive, but also note how the 4 -1/2 year chart shows significant under performance to gold.
10 year chart, 1125% vs 375%
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GG&p=D&yr=10&mn=0...
4-1/2 year chart, 15% vs 80%
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GG&p=D&yr=4&mn=4&...
You still gotta know when to hold em and when to fold em. Thanks for all you help and direction Bill.
The Denver show / website has some great information, still reviewing many of the presentations, it will take a while.
FD: PM's currently long; CEF, SLW (and a little PAL just for interest)
Hi Michael
Yes it is possible, here's an annotated test chart of SLW I just made up as an example. Its a direct link to the Stockcharts charting page to a chart I saved in my account. Note you could also save the chart on your computer, annotate it and then upload a static copy of the chart here on Bill's site, just use the file attach option shown below the posting section.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLW&p=D&b=4&g=0&i...
The details of how to do this are covered in the help article on Chart and Link Posting. You can find it under the menu above, Site Index >> Website Help >> Chart and Link Posting. Or just use the direct link below.
http://caracommunity.com/content/chart-and-link-po...
Note this article also identifies the problem this site has in automatically making a working link for any URL's which have special characters, the dollar symbol is one problem in particular as all index charts at Stockchart start with $ XXX.
I covered this subject last weekend in a post, but you might have missed it. Sept 17, post #69510.
http://caracommunity.com/content/bill-cara%E2%80%9...
Hope this helps
Bill, Michael
Its actually not the ? in the URL thats the problem, its the $. (note: all index charts at Stockcharts start with $)
If I change Michaels chart reference to be the SPY instead of the S&P index the link will be created automatically, to the same chart settings, we'll just loose the annotations which were added to the index chart.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPy&p=W&st=2000-0...
The Drupal software used here on Bills site will usually convert a URL into an active link in a post, however there are a few special characters which will negate that process and the URL will just be shown as text and not turned into a usable link, the $ is one of those characters.
Using the TinyURL method is one workaround the other is to use some special HTML href= coding. Both of these methods along with other hints on chart and link posting are shown in the Help section of this website, top menu: SiteIndex >> Website Help >> Chart and Link Posting. Or just use this direct link, http://caracommunity.com/content/chart-and-link-po...
hope this helps
Yes I also saw that short article on Bloomberg and couldn't believe it, so had to do a little more digging. Here's a better link, again on Bloomberg, but it gives the whole story, so its much less misleading. Yes it seems they are giving up on trying to totally turn it off, they are now focusing on attaching another riser which will allow the oil to flow unobstructed, directly into a ship. Its NOT really like they were thinking of just letting it flow into the gulf until August sometime, or until the relief wells are successful. How many times do we find there's a totally different story behind the first headline.
http://preview.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-01/bp-ef...
Hi Seamus, yes its an interesting subject / discussion with many opinions, and various sites do take a few liberties in how they calculate these numbers. Particularly for indicators that involve running averages in the calc as the RSI does.
I agree the VXX has traded for 15 months, however most would ignore the one trading day in Jan 2009, thus the first monthly gain loss could not be calculated until the end of March 2009. Also as March 2010 is still an incomplete month many would not use it as yet. In any case most use it as just a relative indicator rather than an absolute number.
How did you calc the Monthly RSI-7 at 45.36 , I can't seem to verify that one anywhere, maybe I'll have to go to the excel spreadsheet and do the calcs myself.
Thanks for the input, I'm always trying to learn more.
"VXX now has a monthly RSI 7 of ZERO. Has anyone ever seen a zero on the triple RSI screen before?
Bob"
Yes I've seen it before, usually when there is an error in the calculation or not enough data to properly do the calculation. The VXX started back around Jan last year so there is very little monthly data, about 12 or 13 months. If I look at he error bugging section at the bottom of the RSI tool, I see that Korvus uses 19 data points to calc any of the RSI 7 values and I see lots of zeros in the data stream for the monthly RSI data.
Thus I would assume the "Zero" value reported for VXX monthly RSI-7 is not correct based on faulty and limited input data. If I check StockCharts they have the value around 8 and similar values for the weekly and daily numbers. (note the two are never exactly the same but usually close)
I always find when you see something unusual, its best to check it out, before assuming its correct. Just my 2 cents on the subject.
Nebish, don't really need the tiny URL unless the link contains certain characters which are a problem for the site here. In most cases you can just paste the link into your post. For more instructions on link posting and Tiny URL try the help file, see the menu at the top of this page "Site Index" >> "Website Help" >> ""Chart and Link Posting" or use the direct link below.
http://caracommunity.com/content/chart-and-link-po...
In any case I think this might be the article you are referring to.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601104&si...
Baz22, could be that the two different batches contained different levels of ethanol. They are continually trying to increase the ethanol content which will give you less MPG as I understand it.
Nemo Great write up and I totally agree, although being from Canada I haven't been following this US bill that closely, at the present time.
" It's like a sales tax " Well not quite, a sales tax is normally collected from the buy by the seller and submitted to the gov. In this case the gov will collect from both parties, the seller and the buyer will each be responsible for submitting 0.25% for a total of 0.5%. Thats just the first half, the second half of the round trip trade will generate another 0.5% for the gov. So they are looking a more like 1% for each total round trip transaction.
I also agree the accountants as usual have extrapolated the current trading volumes and assumed they will continue unchanged. Thus they are seeing huge revenues from this, what they fail to understand is that the future volume will not be on the same trend line.
Lelik,
I don't think you can get anything for stocks directly on the Japanese exchanges. The data comes from Yahoo and I can't seem to find the direct symbol for Toyota on that exchange. Note there also has to be historical data in the Yahoo database in order to calc the RSI D-W-M values.
For more info on the RSI tool, just go to the menu at the top of this page, "Site Index" >> "Website Help" >> "RSI Tool". or use the direct link below, the instructions should help with most of your questions.
http://caracommunity.com/content/rsi-tool
Direct link
http://caracommunity.com/content/blog-november-20-...
Westcoaster, BSI can probably give you a better explanation but I'll through in my ideas.
First Stockcharts has a pretty good explanation of candles in their chart school section, see the link below, in particular the sections on Dragon Fly and Gravestone Doji's along with the sections on Long Shadow Reversals.
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_sc...
Now as for some charts, I put together a quick scan in the Stockcharts advanced scan engine as follows and included an image of the charts the scan returned.
[type = stock]
and [Close > 5]
and [SMA(20,close) * SMA(20,volume) > 500000]
and [volume > SMA(20,volume)* 1.25]
and [[Hammer is true] or [Shooting Star is true] or [Gravestone Doji is true] or [Dragonfly Doji is true]]
Basically the scan is looking for any of those types of candles, bearish or bullish. I also included my standard liquidity requirement of trading Min $500k per day average and I wanted todays volume to be 25% more than the SMA 20 average volume, as I find that also helps to validate the long tail reversal. You could also tweak it a bit by specifying a min tail length in percentage terms.
Just some other ideas to think about.
Bill / Korvus,
RE your request for additions to the daily market report. As I like to look at databases in chart form is it possible to add a link in the RSI tables were we could view the RSI D-W-M data for a particular stock as a chart. I find it helps to see how the flow between them develops over time.
Attached is a chart of GOOG for the last 2 years with the 3 RSI's overlayed. Note I can't do this directly in Stockcharts, I had to produce each graph separately and then overlay them with the PainNet image program.
I wouldn't want to see all the charts directly in the Market report, just a link if we wanted to pull them up.
thanks for all you do
As to the current rating system proposal, it should only apply to post removal as inappropriate, ie X removal votes and it is hidden to be reviewed later by the admin panel. We shouldn't have to be voting just to keep regular posts from being hidden.
However even just voting on inappropriate posts puts undue work on the admin panel. Many sites use the report a TOS (Terms of Service), violation procedure. There is a button for TOS violation which brings up a form where you have to identify the specific violation and also the context of the whole situation which may have spanned several posts.
Blogs and text are difficult as so much of our direct communication is through body language and facial expression, which are all missing here. Face to face we can easily see that a comment has been taken out of context and instantly react to correct the situation. But here on the blog it may have been a quick post on the way to work, only to read later on that evening the barrage of posts debating the pros and cons of your post and all the comments totally misread what you were trying to say. It happens.
Reminds me of a quote years ago, went something like this.
"I know you think you understand what you thought I said, but unfortunately what I said was not exactly what I meant".
As far as the format I prefer the Twin or multi blog system;
1) Day trading, scalping chat line, similar to the minute by minute posts on part of Vad's site or many other sites.
2) Cara 100 ( or Cara 100 plus wannabee 100's, as picked by Bill), short / med / long term outlook. A place where the discussion and targets are beyond the EOD. Cara 100 stocks and longer term outlooks for energy, commodities, tech, bio etc., the sectors we should be preparing for weeks or months in advance. I see it being more of a research blog where participation could be every few days or even weekly and still keep up.
WRT the Free speech argument, yes I agree, go set up your own blog and say whatever you want, but it doesn't apply everywhere, anytime. You cannot yell FIRE in a crowded theater, you cannot tell stag party jokes at my children's Christmas party, etc. and telling the host and everyone else they can just ignore you is not good enough, I would ask you to leave.
This site is Bill's living room, his name is over the door, he is our host and I view adding value as the minimum price of admission.
Of course it all depends on your point of view and currency of reference.
The attached chart is Gold in different currencies and yes in US$ Gold is making new highs, based on the assumption of constant currency value. But in other currencies the Feb high is yet to be taken out. If I look at from another viewpoint, say Gold is the worlds constant currency, then the chart just shows which currencies are leading the pack to the downside of real value.
Being from Canada I always tend to look at my asset (gains / losses) as to what they will purchase on the world market and not just in my local currency.
With respect to stocks churning, I'm also seeing alot of that too.
Bill, excellent week in review as usual. I will study it in more detail after I finish raking the leaves, something you no longer have to do, enjoy the beach.
Note the link in your wrap-up to the Peter Simmons article seems to have been truncated, here is the correct one, thanks to Bobbyo for finding it in your Cara archives.
http://www.billcara.com/archives/2007/07/bill_cara...
Bill
I am very sorry to read about your loss, my thoughts are with you, your family and Peter's family.
I also agree with what others have said here, you need to focus on what is good for you right now, take some time off and enjoy. I know you enjoy this blog, however there are good stresses and bad stresses that come along with it. Hopefully the team can find a way to eliminate the bad stresses and let you focus only on the joy and satisfaction the good stresses can bring.
thanks again for all that you do