greg - I think the AAA rating cut and a dividend cut is already cooked into the stock price. JP Morgan was hammering away at GE late last week and the bloggers as always have been way ahead of the curve and hammering away for months. GE now up 8.65%. They must be a TARP beneficiary and one can still get in on the dividend at least one more time.
At the risk of being annoying I will continue my one man thread re: GE. Immelt is now an advisor/insider of the Obama economy team. The Obama stimulus/TARP is now extending itself to bad commercial real estate assets. GE is heavily invested in struggling commercial real estate. Connecting the dots...
Dr. Cosa - agreed. I'm glad the POG is taking a breather so I can load up when it reaches the bottom of this trading channel. I will be selling mucho puts on GLD and GDX.
It seems like a lot of the guys in here are in cash until they make a short term play and they have tight stops to protect themselves. For anyone who holds long positions I think they're crazy not to hedge in this environment. I've been harping on this the last 2 weeks over at my little trading blog. After a lot of thought and discussion I think buying protective index puts is the way to go. The summer is usually a rough time for the market anyway so I like at least the summer strike dates but the September or so strike dates even better. Anything longer than that gets too expensive in my opinion.
For someone who trades U.S. stocks and options only which broker do you think is the best and most cost effective. I'm leaning towards Interactive Brokers or Trade King. Thanks in advance to anyone who answers.
hopefully all this negative sentiment means we're reaching a bottom but I still wonder how the bear can shake us loose without dropping all the P/E's into the single digits
This poor guy (Obama) gets the job and is handed a flaming bag of dog poop and asked to turn it into gold. Has anyone noticed that he has a little bit of the deer in the headlights look to him lately? And now in these dire times some are trying to tear apart his financial Cabinet over petty issues. I think Geithner should get a pass so Obama is not hindered. We can't afford those kind of shenanigans right now.
I'm looking at selling the March 35 puts if I can get a buck a contract. Margin requirements are in the ~12% range that far out of the money. Most likely we just keep the premium...just a trade idea
This is of great concern to me that the E in P/E is overinflated and therefore stocks are not as cheap as commonly believed. I have switched to a capital preservation posture by initiating hedges and making only very conservative option selling trades.
When the bear is finished ravaging it's prey most people have thrown in the towel and sworn off stocks forever. Real P/E's end up very low and dividends very high but only seasoned investors want anything to do with them. That hasn't happened yet in spite of the prevailing historic economic calamity. There is still a lot of optimism out there.
I'm very pessimistic and I figure if I'm wrong my return on investment will suffer yet still be positive but if I'm right no one in my camp will be jumping in front of trains.
greg - I think the AAA rating cut and a dividend cut is already cooked into the stock price. JP Morgan was hammering away at GE late last week and the bloggers as always have been way ahead of the curve and hammering away for months. GE now up 8.65%. They must be a TARP beneficiary and one can still get in on the dividend at least one more time.
At the risk of being annoying I will continue my one man thread re: GE. Immelt is now an advisor/insider of the Obama economy team. The Obama stimulus/TARP is now extending itself to bad commercial real estate assets. GE is heavily invested in struggling commercial real estate. Connecting the dots...
make that 6%...
it just shot up 5%...
it's up premarket...is this just a short term move to secure the dividend?
Dr. Cosa - agreed. I'm glad the POG is taking a breather so I can load up when it reaches the bottom of this trading channel. I will be selling mucho puts on GLD and GDX.
http://tinyurl.com/blcu37
wow
It seems like a lot of the guys in here are in cash until they make a short term play and they have tight stops to protect themselves. For anyone who holds long positions I think they're crazy not to hedge in this environment. I've been harping on this the last 2 weeks over at my little trading blog. After a lot of thought and discussion I think buying protective index puts is the way to go. The summer is usually a rough time for the market anyway so I like at least the summer strike dates but the September or so strike dates even better. Anything longer than that gets too expensive in my opinion.
it will inevitably be adjusted down
brown-cal - why not sell out of the money puts at a strike price that you find attractive?
vinod - I agree with your next entry at 11.90. On Tuesday I sold some Feb 11 puts. The return on margin is quite good.
http://optionpremiumcollector.blogspot.com/2009/01...
For someone who trades U.S. stocks and options only which broker do you think is the best and most cost effective. I'm leaning towards Interactive Brokers or Trade King. Thanks in advance to anyone who answers.
Seamus - thank you so much for posting this. This board is great.
hopefully all this negative sentiment means we're reaching a bottom but I still wonder how the bear can shake us loose without dropping all the P/E's into the single digits
This poor guy (Obama) gets the job and is handed a flaming bag of dog poop and asked to turn it into gold. Has anyone noticed that he has a little bit of the deer in the headlights look to him lately? And now in these dire times some are trying to tear apart his financial Cabinet over petty issues. I think Geithner should get a pass so Obama is not hindered. We can't afford those kind of shenanigans right now.
I believe I've read a few times in financial history books that the financials lead the market in and out of bear markets...
I'm looking at selling the March 35 puts if I can get a buck a contract. Margin requirements are in the ~12% range that far out of the money. Most likely we just keep the premium...just a trade idea
I've read some persuasive articles recently that suggested that GE needs to drop the dividend to keep the AAA rating..
check out ERX 3X Energy Bull (Direxion)
This is of great concern to me that the E in P/E is overinflated and therefore stocks are not as cheap as commonly believed. I have switched to a capital preservation posture by initiating hedges and making only very conservative option selling trades.
When the bear is finished ravaging it's prey most people have thrown in the towel and sworn off stocks forever. Real P/E's end up very low and dividends very high but only seasoned investors want anything to do with them. That hasn't happened yet in spite of the prevailing historic economic calamity. There is still a lot of optimism out there.
I'm very pessimistic and I figure if I'm wrong my return on investment will suffer yet still be positive but if I'm right no one in my camp will be jumping in front of trains.