gforce- Smart move, waiting for prices to come to you.
In the short term, I would exit longs while the indexes are still green. When the light turns yellow, everyone rushes for the exit(s) at the same time. When it turns red, we can reenter our longs.
"Make no mistake, we are headed in the right direction." -- Barack Obama
"I don't want to be a product of my environment- I want my environment to be a product of me...No one gives it to you. You have to take it." -- Frank Costello
If the semi sector shrugs off the after-hours NSM/TXN negativity, then I think the next leg of the bull is ready for take-off. No opinion at this time as to whether SMH gaps up or down Friday morning.
Ugly reaction to NSM earnings/guidance-> sweeping INTC/AA off after hours.
Portfolio closes +0.50% for the day. Had I been able to sell OAKBX at the open, I have no doubt gains would have totaled >1%. As it is, OAKBX closed up just a penny. There's really no excuse for limiting transactions on mutual funds to EOD, IMO. The restriction has been 'waived' (legally or not) for large institutional customers often enough that it's clear intraday transactions should have little effect on managers' ability to steer the fund- if anything, it would attract more investors.
I ended up (mentally) pacing back and forth for the final hour of trading. At the half-hour mark, I marked positions in OAKBX for transfer (back) into cash. (An additional reason for selecting OAKBX in the buy-and-hold accounts was the lack of any ST trading penalty.)
(a) A major rally is on no one's radar, whereas
(b) A major sell-off, if not widely expected, would nonetheless surprise no one.
That's it. In this case (and only IMO), the table is crowded with shorts betting on a continuation of the (recent) down trend, while opening longs would be a quiet bet on the Don't Pass line.
FD- I'm wrong more than half the time. But I hope to successfully manage being wrong with a combination of tight stops on long positions opened this morning +/- adding an inverse ETF hedge of the position in OAKBX (which only trades EOD).
gforce- Smart move, waiting for prices to come to you.
In the short term, I would exit longs while the indexes are still green. When the light turns yellow, everyone rushes for the exit(s) at the same time. When it turns red, we can reenter our longs.
...
31.39...
bigwad- OK, I took the 10 cents. Off @ 12.30.
Bev- Not bad. How 'bout this one?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G9bt3bmnsPY
"Make no mistake, we are headed in the right direction." -- Barack Obama
"I don't want to be a product of my environment- I want my environment to be a product of me...No one gives it to you. You have to take it." -- Frank Costello
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V4nUFxsZqpA&feature...
Great blogs are like great films. The first 2 minutes of a lead post draws the viewer in and sets the tone.
All we're missing is the soundtrack.
Even odds in the market? I'll take that any day ;)
If the semi sector shrugs off the after-hours NSM/TXN negativity, then I think the next leg of the bull is ready for take-off. No opinion at this time as to whether SMH gaps up or down Friday morning.
Opening NSM @ 12.20. The news doesn't strike me as being that bad. Tight stop, however. For (what is likely to be) a dead bounce only.
Ugly reaction to NSM earnings/guidance-> sweeping INTC/AA off after hours.
Portfolio closes +0.50% for the day. Had I been able to sell OAKBX at the open, I have no doubt gains would have totaled >1%. As it is, OAKBX closed up just a penny. There's really no excuse for limiting transactions on mutual funds to EOD, IMO. The restriction has been 'waived' (legally or not) for large institutional customers often enough that it's clear intraday transactions should have little effect on managers' ability to steer the fund- if anything, it would attract more investors.
I ended up (mentally) pacing back and forth for the final hour of trading. At the half-hour mark, I marked positions in OAKBX for transfer (back) into cash. (An additional reason for selecting OAKBX in the buy-and-hold accounts was the lack of any ST trading penalty.)
Still holding AA/INTC.
AMAT off @ 10.81.
Pressing the 8 @ 11.29...
The 6- AA @ 11.19
The 8- Adding to AMAT @ 11.69
BAC/CSCO/WFC/XOM off into opening strength.
Still holding AMAT/INTC/OAKBX.
My other 'impression' right now is that market character tilts more towards 'wall of worry' than 'slope of hope.' Again, that's JMO.
We rally tomorrow. 1-2%. Why?
(a) A major rally is on no one's radar, whereas
(b) A major sell-off, if not widely expected, would nonetheless surprise no one.
That's it. In this case (and only IMO), the table is crowded with shorts betting on a continuation of the (recent) down trend, while opening longs would be a quiet bet on the Don't Pass line.
FD- I'm wrong more than half the time. But I hope to successfully manage being wrong with a combination of tight stops on long positions opened this morning +/- adding an inverse ETF hedge of the position in OAKBX (which only trades EOD).
Going long again in the buy-and-hold half- using a more conservative fund, however: OAKBX.
jack- According to another blogger, it's the UBS chip call. Haven't had time to check out the news.
Redeploying 25% of cash to a few longs. Should the indexes move up from here, I don't think they will allow reentries at last week's lows.
BAC/CSCO/INTC/WFC/XOM @ pre-market averages of 13.28/20.71/18.11/25.04/60.62.