SKUL looks CHEAP. This is a very strong brand. I was talking to my wife about it this morning. She said it's a popular brand that sells at Tilly's which apparently is a popular store. She said it's the only brand she buys for headphones.
I listen to my wife because she has always shopped at ROST and JWN and is on top of trends/fashions.
Check out these numbers:
Mkt cap = $305 Million
Company reiterated outlook for 2011 recently at 44% Rev growth to $231 Million and Diluted EPS of $0.78 (about 15 times earnings for a 40%+ grower)
Revenue growth over past 4 years:
2008: $80 Million
2009: $118 Million
2010: $160 Million
2011: $231 Million
Yet the company trades at a P/S of 1.3 and a P/E of 15. By comparison:
NKE trades at 2 P/S and 20 P/E
UA trades at 2.5 P/S and 40 P/E
DECK trades at 2.6 P/S and 17 P/E
Jack - I'm really liking it here man. Not sure if you're still following it but they doubled the # of banks signed on for mobile deposit last quarter to 161. They now have 7 of 10 biggest banks on. And best of all they signed on Progessive Insurance as their first insurance client (new market for them) and they expect to announce a mobile bill pay (take picture of any bill u get, it grabs the data from the bill (payee, account info, etc), and you pay it thru ur phone) customer between now and the 1st qtr earnings call in Feb.
They doubled revenues in 2010 with only an average of about 20 to 25 banks live (again, they now have 161 banks signed on that will be going live within next 6 months or so). Only Chase is live (of the big ones including C, JPM, WFC, BAC).
Best part: the stock was sold off b/c of overall weakness in growth stocks. Short term traders are scared that it went below it's 200 DMA...i like understanding what short term traders are looking at to get a sense of what moves the stock. with strong fundamental stories like this, i love seeing when short term traders get negative on technicals b/c that gives you a good entry pt on them. I always point to stocks like DELL/INTC/MSFT that at one time had "technical breakdowns" in the early 1990's that stopped people out before the stock went on to huge gains.
Earl - Yes you have definitely confused me. I'm assuming you're only talking about Demand Response Auctions right? XWES does a lot more than that. The auction marketplaces that they run also allow companies like a hotel, for example, to assess their energy needs and determine where they can save money on energy through a self assessment tool.
But the marketplace is primarily used to help the retail customer source energy from many options, driving down their energy costs. I think they started getting into DR Auctions because their customers were asking for it and they figured it would be a nice add on. They also do auctions for energy credits and a bunch of other stuff. In Q2 2011 they were awarded a five-year contract by Mass DOER to implement and manage the state's solar REC auction program.
I think they're basically replacing energy brokers. Their client list has been growing pretty rapidly from what I can tell and I think a lot of brokers are actually signing up.
Does anyone follow this company or have any insight into them? I have followed the stock for a while and I'm currently holding a position in it on the back of excellent earnings last quarter (adjusting for one time revenues they did about $0.04 EPS last quarter and guided to about 50% EPS/Rev growth in 2012). Their financials are excellent (great steady revenue growth over past several years, solid balance sheet with little / no debt) and their business model is great (recurring revenues, good visibility going forward, predominantly fixed cost structure), but I'm still trying to figure out what kind of leadership role they have in their sector.
They set up online marketplaces where retailers of energy can submit a request for bids from wholesalers of energy in what is called a reverse energy auction. The wholesalers are provided with tons of info about the buyer including credit quality, desired length of contract, etc prior to the auction. When the auction begins it is a blind auction where the bidders (i.e, the wholesalers looking to sell energy) don't know the other bidders other than the price they're willing to supply the energy at. Back about 3 years ago the first government mandated cap and trade auction was done through their marketplace: The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative(RGGI). The auction went off without any hitches and RGGI has since used them for many auctions.
They're now moving into ENOC's territory with Demand Response auctions. Here is more info on it:
I'm not an expert on energy or commodities so I was wondering if anyone else has any insight into their business / market. I understand the business model and really like the scalability of it. I also like their growth, balance sheet, the fact that insiders own over 20% of the company, and that it is so cheap (about 17 times what I estimate to be next year's earnings) relative to earnings, growth, cash flow and future prospects.
I'm invested in a company that makes materials for testing graphene chips called CVD Equipment (CVV) that has had really tremendous rev/earnings growth and I'm interested in getting your take on graphene. Apparently its one of the strongest, most flexible materials in the world and can potentially be used in lots of electronic devices.
At this point most bulls only see a bounce as a chance to sell. That should set the stage for rally that does indeed get sold enough to confirm for the bulls that they were right, but it should only get sold down to a higher low, which will set the stage for a rally to new highs. Craziness...No one expects it, which tells me that the odds of it happening are just as good as any at this point.
The confirmation to me that this is the most likely scenario is when I turn on the TV and see that the perma bulls like Cramer and Kudlow keep stating the market is screwed.
I would honestly be shocked if we break down here. Why? Several reasons:
(1) Econ reports as not negative enough...improving jobless claims, recent decent housing reports figures, China mfg (reading of over 51 this weekend) still showing growth
(2) Earnings are still strong and not showing any real signs of crashing (note that there really haven't been any profit warnings...there have been a few but there are just as many if not more beats/raises)
(3) Excessive pessimism (evidenced by extremely high put call ratios and just general cautiousness/bearishness)
I think the odds are we test the 1,100-1,120 area one more time, perhaps break it momentarily, and then get a rally to 1,250. I think should we finally break down, it will probably be when not as many people expect it to happen. So I still see another rally before the possibility of a breakdown happens.
We shall see, but I think this period is similar to the late 1973/1974 period. Not saying it will end like it did back then but just that the trading range between 1,100 and 1,250 will take longer and need to fake out more people. There's too many people leaning on one side of the boat.
Yep..in my mind the major fly in any bulls ointment is the massive drop in copper. that's confidence shattering.
I'm personally holding a large position in a stock (CSTR) that I believe will thrive in a bad economy so I don't really care what the market does as long as we don't go into a depression.
Ok, I just turned on CNBC to see what the fast ways to lose your money guys were saying and I kid you not this is basically what they said:
"Well, because Buffett is buying his own shares tells me that he sees nothing of value in the market which is why the market is a sell."
I kid you not.
So the last time I turned it on I heard from Brian Stutland (spelling?) that the reason we shouldn't buy the market was because the VIX was so high and it is always stupid to buy the market with a high VIX...and I thought that was the dumbest thing I've ever heard. Lo and behold I now just heard something dumber.
Just curious, but why does that trendline have to hold? Without knowing, I'm sure you could have drawn plenty of trendlines in the mid 2000's, 1970s', etc that didn't hold right?
I think I just heard the dumbest thing I've heard in a while when I turned on CNBC on my sirius radio just now:
Some guy by the name of Brian Stutland (Spelling?) said he hates hearing when people say you should buy and hold stocks, especially now when the VIX is elevated like it is right now.
Umm...excuse me but when in the history of the VIX has it been a bad idea to buy with an elevated VIX?
EXACTLY Craig. It blows my mind how people just extrapolate things out with regards to new technologies and assume they will take over the world in no time flat.
Flat screen TVs + DVD hookup is a perfectly suitable set up for the majority of Americans. It's easy to hook up, picture quality is excellent, and the majority of Americans love the no commitment, cheap alternative of Redbox. Blockbuster just closed the majority of their stores in my area over the past 3-6 months and this is the only reason I started using Redbox. The alternatives:
1.) $9/month with Netflix - wider selection, but I have to wait for a movie to come and usually we just like to pick a movie up spontaneously and watch it that night. Also, at $9/month we need to watch 8 movies to equal what we would get with Redbox. We watch 2 to 3 a month.
2.) On demand - at $5 a pop? No thanks. Not to mention I don't even know if I can pause the movie and come back to it and how long I can have it for.
SKUL looks CHEAP. This is a very strong brand. I was talking to my wife about it this morning. She said it's a popular brand that sells at Tilly's which apparently is a popular store. She said it's the only brand she buys for headphones.
I listen to my wife because she has always shopped at ROST and JWN and is on top of trends/fashions.
Check out these numbers:
Mkt cap = $305 Million
Company reiterated outlook for 2011 recently at 44% Rev growth to $231 Million and Diluted EPS of $0.78 (about 15 times earnings for a 40%+ grower)
Revenue growth over past 4 years:
2008: $80 Million
2009: $118 Million
2010: $160 Million
2011: $231 Million
Yet the company trades at a P/S of 1.3 and a P/E of 15. By comparison:
NKE trades at 2 P/S and 20 P/E
UA trades at 2.5 P/S and 40 P/E
DECK trades at 2.6 P/S and 17 P/E
Jack - I'm really liking it here man. Not sure if you're still following it but they doubled the # of banks signed on for mobile deposit last quarter to 161. They now have 7 of 10 biggest banks on. And best of all they signed on Progessive Insurance as their first insurance client (new market for them) and they expect to announce a mobile bill pay (take picture of any bill u get, it grabs the data from the bill (payee, account info, etc), and you pay it thru ur phone) customer between now and the 1st qtr earnings call in Feb.
They doubled revenues in 2010 with only an average of about 20 to 25 banks live (again, they now have 161 banks signed on that will be going live within next 6 months or so). Only Chase is live (of the big ones including C, JPM, WFC, BAC).
Best part: the stock was sold off b/c of overall weakness in growth stocks. Short term traders are scared that it went below it's 200 DMA...i like understanding what short term traders are looking at to get a sense of what moves the stock. with strong fundamental stories like this, i love seeing when short term traders get negative on technicals b/c that gives you a good entry pt on them. I always point to stocks like DELL/INTC/MSFT that at one time had "technical breakdowns" in the early 1990's that stopped people out before the stock went on to huge gains.
Any of you guys still in MITK? I just re-entered over the past week.
So this is all the bears got? C'mon man. I mean Fitch put Cyprus on downgrade watch. That's some nasty sh*t man!
(Italy you say? They're on downgrade watch too? Phew, thanks for Fitch giving me the heads up...those CDS spreads weren't giving me any hint)
Earl - Yes you have definitely confused me. I'm assuming you're only talking about Demand Response Auctions right? XWES does a lot more than that. The auction marketplaces that they run also allow companies like a hotel, for example, to assess their energy needs and determine where they can save money on energy through a self assessment tool.
But the marketplace is primarily used to help the retail customer source energy from many options, driving down their energy costs. I think they started getting into DR Auctions because their customers were asking for it and they figured it would be a nice add on. They also do auctions for energy credits and a bunch of other stuff. In Q2 2011 they were awarded a five-year contract by Mass DOER to implement and manage the state's solar REC auction program.
I think they're basically replacing energy brokers. Their client list has been growing pretty rapidly from what I can tell and I think a lot of brokers are actually signing up.
Sedona - They have been live with Chase for over a year now.
Does anyone follow this company or have any insight into them? I have followed the stock for a while and I'm currently holding a position in it on the back of excellent earnings last quarter (adjusting for one time revenues they did about $0.04 EPS last quarter and guided to about 50% EPS/Rev growth in 2012). Their financials are excellent (great steady revenue growth over past several years, solid balance sheet with little / no debt) and their business model is great (recurring revenues, good visibility going forward, predominantly fixed cost structure), but I'm still trying to figure out what kind of leadership role they have in their sector.
They set up online marketplaces where retailers of energy can submit a request for bids from wholesalers of energy in what is called a reverse energy auction. The wholesalers are provided with tons of info about the buyer including credit quality, desired length of contract, etc prior to the auction. When the auction begins it is a blind auction where the bidders (i.e, the wholesalers looking to sell energy) don't know the other bidders other than the price they're willing to supply the energy at. Back about 3 years ago the first government mandated cap and trade auction was done through their marketplace: The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative(RGGI). The auction went off without any hitches and RGGI has since used them for many auctions.
They're now moving into ENOC's territory with Demand Response auctions. Here is more info on it:
http://www.xconomy.com/boston/2010/02/24/world-ene...
I'm not an expert on energy or commodities so I was wondering if anyone else has any insight into their business / market. I understand the business model and really like the scalability of it. I also like their growth, balance sheet, the fact that insiders own over 20% of the company, and that it is so cheap (about 17 times what I estimate to be next year's earnings) relative to earnings, growth, cash flow and future prospects.
Does anyone know anything about graphene?
http://edition.cnn.com/2011/10/12/tech/graphene-co...
I'm invested in a company that makes materials for testing graphene chips called CVD Equipment (CVV) that has had really tremendous rev/earnings growth and I'm interested in getting your take on graphene. Apparently its one of the strongest, most flexible materials in the world and can potentially be used in lots of electronic devices.
http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/qubits-and-pieces-100...
At this point most bulls only see a bounce as a chance to sell. That should set the stage for rally that does indeed get sold enough to confirm for the bulls that they were right, but it should only get sold down to a higher low, which will set the stage for a rally to new highs. Craziness...No one expects it, which tells me that the odds of it happening are just as good as any at this point.
The confirmation to me that this is the most likely scenario is when I turn on the TV and see that the perma bulls like Cramer and Kudlow keep stating the market is screwed.
FD:
Long with very large position in CSTR.
I would honestly be shocked if we break down here. Why? Several reasons:
(1) Econ reports as not negative enough...improving jobless claims, recent decent housing reports figures, China mfg (reading of over 51 this weekend) still showing growth
(2) Earnings are still strong and not showing any real signs of crashing (note that there really haven't been any profit warnings...there have been a few but there are just as many if not more beats/raises)
(3) Excessive pessimism (evidenced by extremely high put call ratios and just general cautiousness/bearishness)
I think the odds are we test the 1,100-1,120 area one more time, perhaps break it momentarily, and then get a rally to 1,250. I think should we finally break down, it will probably be when not as many people expect it to happen. So I still see another rally before the possibility of a breakdown happens.
We shall see, but I think this period is similar to the late 1973/1974 period. Not saying it will end like it did back then but just that the trading range between 1,100 and 1,250 will take longer and need to fake out more people. There's too many people leaning on one side of the boat.
Jack - It's a great question. My guess is not nearly enough and that this will fuel a big rally.
Yep..in my mind the major fly in any bulls ointment is the massive drop in copper. that's confidence shattering.
I'm personally holding a large position in a stock (CSTR) that I believe will thrive in a bad economy so I don't really care what the market does as long as we don't go into a depression.
I'm waiting for Art to start talking about moon cycles and hindenburg omens...that's always entertaining.
The late day selloff was the perfect setup for more gains. get those doubters off the train.
The perfect setup for more gains. get those doubters off the train.
Grym - But the beauty of it all: we eventually went higher each and every time.
Sounds to me like someone who is fighting yesterday's war. We already had a 2008 style crash...in 2008.
Ok, I just turned on CNBC to see what the fast ways to lose your money guys were saying and I kid you not this is basically what they said:
"Well, because Buffett is buying his own shares tells me that he sees nothing of value in the market which is why the market is a sell."
I kid you not.
So the last time I turned it on I heard from Brian Stutland (spelling?) that the reason we shouldn't buy the market was because the VIX was so high and it is always stupid to buy the market with a high VIX...and I thought that was the dumbest thing I've ever heard. Lo and behold I now just heard something dumber.
Just curious, but why does that trendline have to hold? Without knowing, I'm sure you could have drawn plenty of trendlines in the mid 2000's, 1970s', etc that didn't hold right?
I think I just heard the dumbest thing I've heard in a while when I turned on CNBC on my sirius radio just now:
Some guy by the name of Brian Stutland (Spelling?) said he hates hearing when people say you should buy and hold stocks, especially now when the VIX is elevated like it is right now.
Umm...excuse me but when in the history of the VIX has it been a bad idea to buy with an elevated VIX?
EXACTLY Craig. It blows my mind how people just extrapolate things out with regards to new technologies and assume they will take over the world in no time flat.
Flat screen TVs + DVD hookup is a perfectly suitable set up for the majority of Americans. It's easy to hook up, picture quality is excellent, and the majority of Americans love the no commitment, cheap alternative of Redbox. Blockbuster just closed the majority of their stores in my area over the past 3-6 months and this is the only reason I started using Redbox. The alternatives:
1.) $9/month with Netflix - wider selection, but I have to wait for a movie to come and usually we just like to pick a movie up spontaneously and watch it that night. Also, at $9/month we need to watch 8 movies to equal what we would get with Redbox. We watch 2 to 3 a month.
2.) On demand - at $5 a pop? No thanks. Not to mention I don't even know if I can pause the movie and come back to it and how long I can have it for.
3.) Streaming - aside from the issues I mentioned above, I also heard that there might be an 8 year delay on new titles through streaming:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/08/idUS1637...