Congrats Bill on the column. Those of us who (feel we) know you will not read it as too blunt. The blunt will come to light when you back up your intentions with actions as we have seen here on the blog. I see you opening yourself to more work and more exposure and maybe that's a good thing. I commend you for the effort.
I do know that although I stopped trading on tax day April 15th of this year due to my own poor performance I have learned so much here that I chalk up my losses as tuition. I have become more risk adverse and I see my ending my swing trading to be a obvious result of what I have learned here. When I did close my IB account I kept some of my fav miners in another account. I will attach the results of that portion of my portfolio below.
To sum up. Thank you. I am sure there are many who, like I, used to be more active but who who still come to read and follow the links towards deeper understanding. You provide a great service to others. The blog continues to get better and you include others who's voices and sometime rants are golden.
peace from North Puget Sound
Gray
Just curious but..why? If it was me I would need to acknowledge that "I think it will turn down.." but as Vad and others has pointed out, why trade against the trend. Do you have good history timing the change? An opinion I saw, may be here is that the market will probably trade range bound till options exp.
peace
Vad, your comments are much appreciated. And if I take them personally, its my own damm fault. Unfortunately for me, your comments are dead on. I was trying to get short on and off since 666. But you are right, it IS way more fun to take small profits on longs and then get out (usually too early).
Peace from north Puget Sound
No Analyst65, you are not the only one disgusted. Many who were posting and trading here and are no longer posting. Probably just gone, not trading but back to the daily life, hoping and taking care of their business. I am also disgusted. And nearly out of the market, gasping my last, down to 35% of the account I started with. Months of taking small short positions and holding too long. That was trading what I thought would happen...that fundamental value in companies was going down and prices would follow...wrong! Lately back to v small long positions. But verrry timid. No way to make any gains, down to holding on to these last few $ before I decide to either pull the plug or ...What? I think thats what you are asking.
Two days ago I spent some time doing the due diligence, looking at GMO-one of my favs. I did not see any insider buying - rather the opposite. I did not see any volume ramping up. I did not appreciate the Motley Fool upgrade. I did not understand the SEC filing from 10 days ago. Yet today, many people are VERY happy and buying GMO. Just another story of the big one that got away. I have several of those stories. Bought AAPL within these last 12-14 months for $89 per share and sold for a small profit ....at $95! WHOO HOO! Trading genius.
Vad (and lots others) says trade what you see. I won't chase GMO here though Chinese bank investment may just transform GMO at a time when Bill is calling for longer term strength in commodities. ^VIX is down to (nearly) April 07. Yet, IMHO I think people (and some professional traders and money managers are people), I think people ARE scared and grasping at straws.
I would like to see my miniscule amateur trading account make me wealthy but really, it isn't gonna happen. I understand your plea as ...what do I do now? As you put it... looking for a "WAY to protect themselves and their families."
Good luck.
And in that vein, thanks Bill for the GS Rubicon report and for your hard work and time spent keeping this blog a civilized forum and learning space.
Peace from North Puget Sound
Bsi...are you out because DF hit a target? Or is it a time frame factor? Looking at stockcharts...see http://tinyurl.com/yhpqees, you are getting out on the way up-ok ok thats the point.
Thank you for posting your trades. Your methods and time frame is different than mine. Thats a good thing. Just trying to refine my skills by bouncing your ( and others) methods off my (lousy) method
peace from North Puget Sound
Nice explanation via charts. Thank you. Good luck. Having shorted in the past and having my shorts stripped from me - pun intended- I will watch with interest. I may follow into WFMI in a VERY small way. I have found, as we all have, that the positive outlook is more pervasive than warranted. In the home improvement retail business I see many many people who took advantage of the first time home buyers stimulus. Many are not prepared to be homeowners. They will spend at the onset- this year- to "invest and improve" their houses. So while that occurs, banks hold on to the bad homes rather than own up to them on the balance sheets. A rosy picture. This differs from Kaimu's description of people in credit hibernation. Yet, I am in his camp. Fearfull of the tremendous debt being racked up. The effects of black swans seems to be possible every day. Price increases being insidously implemented. eg. a half gallon of ice cream is now only 1.5 quarts although the carton looks the same, just smaller- a 25% reduction in product for a corresponding 5% reduction in price.
Ok, ok, now I'm ranting.
peace from North Puget Sound
ps, Craig, nice to see your comment a few days ago
Adam Hewison has an informative video suggesting that oil prices cycle top to top about every 11 weeks. http://tiny.cc/Lgp25
also see attached graph
On top of that is the increased volatility this week with Iran's nuclear plans. Granted its range is usually 5-8% but thats a solid base hit.
Good luck
Did anyone bookmark the site that identified banks in your area that are 4 or better on a scale of 1-5? It was mentioned a month or so ago. I had it...just cant find it. was going to do some research into regional banks in good ag areas that had lower unemployment and wanted to use that as a second screener after finviz.
TIA
I too reached some mental stops. Maybe cheapy bought my DGP shares! But spot gold is down more than 4% in minutes-ok maybe an hour. SPY and DJIA down 2% and the dollar up less than 1 %. The $VIX is really telling a story though, the fear factor up 16%. I wish the story was clearer. Something is up (and down) and some of us will get knocked all the way out of the market.
I guess when you're in the herd rushing to the cliff its hard to tell if it was started by a pride of lions slaughtering your herd mates or if some ass got stung by a bee!
good luck out there
AIG hit 23.718 @ 11:45 am +/-. Did you execute that buy? I just watching your style of trading. Don't have the _____ ( fill in, skill time or guts) to follow your path. But I'll cheer you on.
peace from North Puget Sound
Thanks Fox. I had not seen the 3-D before. Interesting to note the large grouping of 3% gainers clustered in the homebuilding sector. (had to scroll all the way down)
Just my guess, but the conference he's hosting Jan 15-20 just ended. So I would schedule my time like this. One day extra to say goodbye to close friends, new and old. One day to sit without too many talking around you. And one day to take care of pressing business. Slice it, dice it and mix it back together for a real take on the next few days.
Of course, if it WERE me then I'd type a few lines about how great it was and sit on the beach with my best friend and partner for another day. Bill is also a self acknowledged over achiever so who knows. All I know is I value and reread his reports at times like this. Doesn't mean I have to like it. The separation I feel from my investment market place community when this blog is on hiatus, shutdown or unavailable is palpable.
Thats my backhanded way of saying thanks to Bill (and korvus) for this site and the opportunity to learn and share.
And the attachment is a photo looking east from the other end of the USA
Peace from North Puget Sound
Sorry for the double post.
Congrats Bill on the column. Those of us who (feel we) know you will not read it as too blunt. The blunt will come to light when you back up your intentions with actions as we have seen here on the blog. I see you opening yourself to more work and more exposure and maybe that's a good thing. I commend you for the effort.
I do know that although I stopped trading on tax day April 15th of this year due to my own poor performance I have learned so much here that I chalk up my losses as tuition. I have become more risk adverse and I see my ending my swing trading to be a obvious result of what I have learned here. When I did close my IB account I kept some of my fav miners in another account. I will attach the results of that portion of my portfolio below.
To sum up. Thank you. I am sure there are many who, like I, used to be more active but who who still come to read and follow the links towards deeper understanding. You provide a great service to others. The blog continues to get better and you include others who's voices and sometime rants are golden.
peace from North Puget Sound
Gray
Tesoro to shut temporarily shut Anacortes refinery
Mon Apr 12, 2010 5:59pm EDT
Tesoro said cannot predict when operations could resume
said on Monday it plans to shut its its 120,000 barrel-per-day (bpd) Anacortes, Washington,
With all due respect. This is normal? Please see attachment
Any thoughts. This is not normal fluctuations
tia
Just curious but..why? If it was me I would need to acknowledge that "I think it will turn down.." but as Vad and others has pointed out, why trade against the trend. Do you have good history timing the change? An opinion I saw, may be here is that the market will probably trade range bound till options exp.
peace
Vad, your comments are much appreciated. And if I take them personally, its my own damm fault. Unfortunately for me, your comments are dead on. I was trying to get short on and off since 666. But you are right, it IS way more fun to take small profits on longs and then get out (usually too early).
Peace from north Puget Sound
All the traders must be sleeping late at PDAC. Gold down sharply.
good luck out there
No Analyst65, you are not the only one disgusted. Many who were posting and trading here and are no longer posting. Probably just gone, not trading but back to the daily life, hoping and taking care of their business. I am also disgusted. And nearly out of the market, gasping my last, down to 35% of the account I started with. Months of taking small short positions and holding too long. That was trading what I thought would happen...that fundamental value in companies was going down and prices would follow...wrong! Lately back to v small long positions. But verrry timid. No way to make any gains, down to holding on to these last few $ before I decide to either pull the plug or ...What? I think thats what you are asking.
Two days ago I spent some time doing the due diligence, looking at GMO-one of my favs. I did not see any insider buying - rather the opposite. I did not see any volume ramping up. I did not appreciate the Motley Fool upgrade. I did not understand the SEC filing from 10 days ago. Yet today, many people are VERY happy and buying GMO. Just another story of the big one that got away. I have several of those stories. Bought AAPL within these last 12-14 months for $89 per share and sold for a small profit ....at $95! WHOO HOO! Trading genius.
Vad (and lots others) says trade what you see. I won't chase GMO here though Chinese bank investment may just transform GMO at a time when Bill is calling for longer term strength in commodities. ^VIX is down to (nearly) April 07. Yet, IMHO I think people (and some professional traders and money managers are people), I think people ARE scared and grasping at straws.
I would like to see my miniscule amateur trading account make me wealthy but really, it isn't gonna happen. I understand your plea as ...what do I do now? As you put it... looking for a "WAY to protect themselves and their families."
Good luck.
And in that vein, thanks Bill for the GS Rubicon report and for your hard work and time spent keeping this blog a civilized forum and learning space.
Peace from North Puget Sound
GS "Crossing the Rubicon" report now available
Submitted by Jack (41 comments) on Wed, 03/03/2010 - 15:40 #58459
Look for the blue box in the righthand column of the home page, which reads:
To download Goldman Sachs’
“Crossing the Rubicon” report,
log in then click here.
Bsi...are you out because DF hit a target? Or is it a time frame factor? Looking at stockcharts...see http://tinyurl.com/yhpqees, you are getting out on the way up-ok ok thats the point.
Thank you for posting your trades. Your methods and time frame is different than mine. Thats a good thing. Just trying to refine my skills by bouncing your ( and others) methods off my (lousy) method
peace from North Puget Sound
Nice explanation via charts. Thank you. Good luck. Having shorted in the past and having my shorts stripped from me - pun intended- I will watch with interest. I may follow into WFMI in a VERY small way. I have found, as we all have, that the positive outlook is more pervasive than warranted. In the home improvement retail business I see many many people who took advantage of the first time home buyers stimulus. Many are not prepared to be homeowners. They will spend at the onset- this year- to "invest and improve" their houses. So while that occurs, banks hold on to the bad homes rather than own up to them on the balance sheets. A rosy picture. This differs from Kaimu's description of people in credit hibernation. Yet, I am in his camp. Fearfull of the tremendous debt being racked up. The effects of black swans seems to be possible every day. Price increases being insidously implemented. eg. a half gallon of ice cream is now only 1.5 quarts although the carton looks the same, just smaller- a 25% reduction in product for a corresponding 5% reduction in price.
Ok, ok, now I'm ranting.
peace from North Puget Sound
ps, Craig, nice to see your comment a few days ago
Adam Hewison has an informative video suggesting that oil prices cycle top to top about every 11 weeks.
http://tiny.cc/Lgp25
also see attached graph
On top of that is the increased volatility this week with Iran's nuclear plans. Granted its range is usually 5-8% but thats a solid base hit.
Good luck
Thanks, thats the one. BTW, did you hear BECU's offer of 5% on the first $500 in a savings and a checking acct?
Did anyone bookmark the site that identified banks in your area that are 4 or better on a scale of 1-5? It was mentioned a month or so ago. I had it...just cant find it. was going to do some research into regional banks in good ag areas that had lower unemployment and wanted to use that as a second screener after finviz.
TIA
I too reached some mental stops. Maybe cheapy bought my DGP shares! But spot gold is down more than 4% in minutes-ok maybe an hour. SPY and DJIA down 2% and the dollar up less than 1 %. The $VIX is really telling a story though, the fear factor up 16%. I wish the story was clearer. Something is up (and down) and some of us will get knocked all the way out of the market.
I guess when you're in the herd rushing to the cliff its hard to tell if it was started by a pride of lions slaughtering your herd mates or if some ass got stung by a bee!
good luck out there
Whew...their offer to purchase totals 21,350 million dollars. But other than that someone else will have to tell us what that means.
AIG hit 23.718 @ 11:45 am +/-. Did you execute that buy? I just watching your style of trading. Don't have the _____ ( fill in, skill time or guts) to follow your path. But I'll cheer you on.
peace from North Puget Sound
Thanks Fox. I had not seen the 3-D before. Interesting to note the large grouping of 3% gainers clustered in the homebuilding sector. (had to scroll all the way down)
Just my guess, but the conference he's hosting Jan 15-20 just ended. So I would schedule my time like this. One day extra to say goodbye to close friends, new and old. One day to sit without too many talking around you. And one day to take care of pressing business. Slice it, dice it and mix it back together for a real take on the next few days.
Of course, if it WERE me then I'd type a few lines about how great it was and sit on the beach with my best friend and partner for another day. Bill is also a self acknowledged over achiever so who knows. All I know is I value and reread his reports at times like this. Doesn't mean I have to like it. The separation I feel from my investment market place community when this blog is on hiatus, shutdown or unavailable is palpable.
Thats my backhanded way of saying thanks to Bill (and korvus) for this site and the opportunity to learn and share.
And the attachment is a photo looking east from the other end of the USA
Peace from North Puget Sound