The president cited “deceptive practices” of the Iranian central bank and an “unacceptable risk” to the international financial system from Iranian activities.
--------
Sanctions again! It worked so well (sarcasm, of course) with Japan when they were doing unspeakable things in China. Well, it made us feel were were at least doing "something".
Always good for a laugh, though — last night on Jay Leno, "Hey, 'unacceptable practices'! What about our own banks?"
The comedians get it… why not the president, the congress, the MSM, the US public at large?
First game I took our two boys to back in the late 1970s (a double header) was with my dad and my uncle.
The first game ran 21 innings!
It took a bit of doing to get the two "old boys" to leave. My kids were really itchy by then and I still had a 90 mile drive home. It was a long time before I could interest them in another game ;-)
Today I'm scanning old slides to CDs — lot's of good memories, but nothing from that day, so far.
I am pretty well convinced the American public will vote for Obama for a number of (not very scientific) reasons:
• Inertia — It is always easier not to change something.
• His unique talent — He is a great salesman who knows his product (himself). He knows how the system works and how to work the system.
• His backers — Banks (even bigger) and big corporations (even richer) under his time in office. Over $1 billion war chest to show for it.
• Demographics — While the unemployed, over indebted youth are dissatisfied, the older and comfortably retired folks, who always vote, are complacent and still believe his speeches. (Perhaps it's a short term memory thing;-) This is strictly from observing and listening to my peers. Unless their kids are in financial trouble, they're OK with four more of the same... the same being what they hear forecast by MSM. (They accept at face value TV/radio "official data".)
The biggest factor, IMO, is the lack of a really strong candidate opposing him.
• Ron Paul is the only one with meaningful ideas which address our problems and their causes.
• Romney is too bland and too close to Obama in what he has to offer.
• Santorum — nice guy, but uninspiring.
• Gingrich — Inspires uneasiness — heavy baggage from political and matrimonial history.
(I'd love to watch a Gingrich/Obama real debate.)
As an old Cub fan, I guess it's "Wait until next time" for me ;-)
I'm afraid I must agree that Obama has a strong chance of reelection. However, you mentioned the religion/political effect and I believe Obama made a rare slip. He managed to survive the U.S. Senate by voting "present" a record number of times — thus avoiding a track record which could haunt him. The most encouraging thing lately to oppose his second term is his offending the Catholic vote regarding abortion and contraception. Hispanics were a large bloc for him last time.
My preference is Ron Paul, but I fear he has too little funding, the media is against him and, since he is older than I by a couple of years, I think the job would kill him. I hope his son may be able to carry his torch in a few years. If things continue for four more years even more people will be "occupying" and protesting.
I now suspect Reagan was already affected by Altsheimer's when in office and may genuinely not have know about Iran-Contra. My father-in-law suffered periodic periods of memory loss while mostly appearing to be his usual self. Not just "what was it I was about to do?" One day after a lengthy discussion on current events he turned to me and said, " I should know you. right?" I had been married to his daughter for 30 years. The next day he was fine again.
If a president was that spacey while in office, there is no way the public would be allow to know.
Yes, we must have transparency and the Fed reportedly was audited by the GAO at the request of Bernie Sanders:
'Among the investigation's key findings is that the Fed unilaterally provided trillions of dollars in financial assistance to foreign banks and corporations from South Korea to Scotland, according to the GAO report. "No agency of the United States government should be allowed to bailout a foreign bank or corporation without the direct approval of Congress and the president," Sanders said.'
That was last July and so far I have heard no more on the matter. http://tiny.cc/egvkq
What I am noticing with the Romney statement is consistent use of an edited bite to create controversy — even on Shields and Brooks, not just comedians. This just happens to be something I heard in it's original complete form — so what else am I missing with managed news?
The internet is a wonderful way to get a variety of views, but if corrupted, as it apparently is in China, a very powerful tool for misinformation. If major sites like Google and others cave in to pressures by nations, corporations or politicians we will have flood of questionable info. That is "questionable" by some while accepted by too many.
Far too many people I know are accepting network news, financial and otherwise, at face value.
Actually, I was looking back a bit further to 2006, but chose 2007 since the Dow was at about the same level as now.
It's no secret I'm into the human factor more than charts, but certainly people must be a wild card at any time and I would guess more so these days.
No two points on a chart can really "predict" I'm quite sure — too many variables. My cynicism is affected by where I am, no doubt. Our city of 150,000 was just listed by Forbes as the 9th most miserable place in the US — a dubious distinction and having moved "up" from the 14th worst. Will we make it to number one?
However, today there millions more across the country who are also worse off than ever. Perhaps if "misery loves company" it feels even worse to be unemployed in the midst of people going to work, taking vacations, buying a new car or house at a bargain — in other words living what was for decades considered normal in the US for most of us.
This makes me question how much will the mood of US consumers affect the market's path? In an election year can the MSM spin overcome the internet buzz? How will the strength or weakness of the US dollar determine corporate foreign sales? What other factors are there we have no clues about zooming around the world?
I went there just long enough to get a feel for it — looks interesting to me.
I'm always curious what makes people do (or not do ) things. In my recent reading of "The Japanese Imperial Conspiracy," by David Bergamini I just read a segment last night from 1935. "The Century of Self" is the exact opposite of what is the main theme in the book.
At that time there was a push devised by the emperor to remove the western influence which had promoted individualism. The plan was to instill a national mood and lifestyle in which the emperor was god (not "an organ of the state"), and the Japanese people were to be considered as a whole — one family.
That was for the masses (like our 99%) there were various layers of the more privileged in a complicated ranking of power and influence who had their own rules and customs.
I found the longer (2 vol) version several years ago and just got around to reading this winter. One of the interesting things I've learned is of the practice of "belly talk" — saying something directly, but with both the speaker and some of the listeners knowing the exact opposite is meant. This was acted out both verbally and in print. Hmmmm. Not something so foreign at all. It seems to have a familiar ring to it. This was written 30 years after Pearl Harbor and makes me wonder what will be written of the US in 2030 or 2040.
My interest in WWII led me to accept the general views expressed about the Japanese army being the driving force for that war, however, there is adequate documentation to indicate that Hirohito first conceived his Southeast Asia conquest and possible war with the US as early as 1920.
I wonder if there is any way to see what Pulplava was saying back in 2007-2008.
A look at a graph back then, to a nearly technical illiterate like me, looks like we may have another ten percent upside — but then again... couldn't it just keep going to the old record ?
In my reply to Bill's McCluhan reference about the Japanese charades makes even actions difficult to judge for a very long time. People, both individuals and groups or nations can be very clever.
Much of our own such behavior is held for 30 years and even then how will we ever know what is never revealed?
I have a friend who is confident those who live a lie cannot be truly happy. My contention is they can go on making others unhappy far too long.
"The truth will set you free."
But, yes, living as honestly as possible can be freeing. My grandmother had a saying in Swedish (wish I could remember exactly) — "Liars need to have a very good memory."
Right. I didn't read the book back then. (Earning $3/hour and had never invested in anything except a very small bank savings account.), but I have read countless references as relating to advertising since.
I have to say that today as I watch TV commercials, I'm not always sure if the message is anything more than , "See what I can do with my newest software".
At times, I wonder if life was ever truly simple, or if I have always been missing the message.
About half way through a two volume set of "The Imperial Japanese Conspiracy," which documents that for several decades preceding WWII, there was so much duplicity and pretense, both for the Japanese citizens and the world at large that hardly anyone could have known what was true from published accounts.
It is pretty tempting to list possible similarities throughout history. Not much is clearly defined in real time.
The lyrics from an old song say, "It ain't what you say, it's the way how you say it."
We need to be aware of this more than ever, in the day of the "Sound Bite"...
Yesterday the jobs report was spun to be very improved. It simply ignored that 1,177,000 workers were dropped from consideration. They're neither employed or unemployed — it's as if they no longer exist.
Romney made a statement which was on the radio early this week. Something immediately told me to watch the editing of Romney's comment which began, "I'm not concerned about the very poor..."
Sure enough that night Jay Leno used it. I'm confident other such "major news sources" have informed the average citizen. I wonder how many people will have heard the rest of what was said, in context.
Here is the whole statement.
"I'm not concerned about the very poor," the Republican presidential candidate said on CNN Wednesday morning. "There's a safety net there, and if it needs repair I'll fix it. I'm not concerned about the very rich, they're doing just fine. I'm concerned about the heart of America, the 95% of Americans who are right now struggling.
I can't say I'm wild about Romney, but don't want to get into that. What bothers me is that so many people I discuss issues with are so quick to accept "news" whether on TV, the Net, or the supermarket tabloid rack.
Especially in an election year, but more than ever before... "It ain't what you say, it's the way how you say it."
I also found this very interesting. The one-world suspicions have been around for a long time and looking at changes over the past several decades certainly seem heading in that direction.
We have far more people in the US who are government dependent than ever before. With an all volunteer military, many who didn't plan on anything more than a boost to their chances of going to college are now ten-year vets — halfway to a pension. Food stamps rather than bread lines. 99 week unemployment, etc.
Ron Paul makes a lot of sense to us here, but I'm not getting the same acceptance from acquaintances who are MSM sound bite listeners. To them he is a nut case who, as my cousin emailed me this week, "Wants to drag us back to 1900 with his isolationist views. All he will do is steal votes from the conservatives and assure more of the Obama policies."
More gov. mothering Illinois laws came on this month:
• Illegal to smoke in a vehicle in which there is a person under the age of 18
• Back seat passengers must wear seat belts (School buses have no belts.)
Perhaps these are just distractions while the whole world merges under non-elected control. Who knows?
We both seem to be "reading into" each other's comments. I never said the "data is incorrect", just that without knowing how it was collected — who was asked and how, what was included or omitted, I have no reason to accept it. The fact that The Fed was one of the data contributors gives me zero confidence in the author's article. While reading "Maestro" it seemed obvious to me that Greenspan's minions were stroking his ego when his tactics and pronouncements were in question regarding productivity. This I expect is universal as I saw it so often in corporate situations.
I have no need to convince you of anything, I'm just stating my views.
Here is an article with data which you may or may not find relevant. I can give more anecdotal testimony of my personal experience with the authors. After finding my overall investments in dire straights when the 2008-2009 troubles hit, I invested heavily in their mutual fund (WHOSX) and ended the year substantially in the black. http://tiny.cc/rercv
Here again, I cannot claim this data to be accurate — it is as yours is — not something I have the ability to verify.
As for my opinion at this blog, surely you must remember the furor which my comments aroused recently. Also, the off blog emails in which we came to an impasse because you wanted me to alter my convictions.
"Let me leave aside all the general discussion of the jobs export, debt, dollar destruction - you'll have to forgive me for not being interested in stating for 1897th time that it's bad. Nor am I interested much in arguing about benefits and disadvantages of "computerization and robotics" - it's not like those can be stopped any more than earthquakes or hurricanes."
To me this is like the old joke, "Aside from that, Mrs Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play."
If you are only interested in data which makes you a better trader or lets you ignore what is actually happening to people — enjoy yourself.
On the other hand, some recent data I have read are 48 million in the US are now on food stamps and here in my city as of Jan.2011 we had 400 families frequenting food pantries (up from 175 in 2010). Our latest unemployment is an admitted 11.5%. I can't prove either of these... nor can I disprove.
This is data I can believe, since I know some of these individuals.
To me verifying or contradicting data with other date is futile without knowing:
A. How was the data generated? Questions and phrasing are important.
B. What was the goal of the collector? Agency workers are like Army Privates — they present what they know is wanted.
If you have ever been involved in such you must know it can be slanted to suit those asking for it. Forty years in advertising leaves me unimpressed with data. And after working on more than 70 corporate annual reports, financial data is especially suspect.
I also realize this is not necessarily germane to short term trading, but certainly can be to investors
Grym
Note: I know my opinion is unwelcome here, but it is what I see and don't much care for data, especially from the Fed. Much of the other MSM sound bite data appears far different if the whole story is researched at BLS or the Census Bureau. The CPI data has been distorted for years due to things like "Owner Equivalent Rent" which as a lagging indicator hid housing inflation and now is hiding the deflation. (I believe this is about 40% of the index>)
I only entered this discussion because it was a non-trading day.
A link? No. What I have is a city much like Detroit. Empty buildings — thousands of square feet which produced furniture, clothing, machine tools, aerospace items, auto parts, fasteners, cabinet hardware, heavy machinery... All of these were my clients from the early 1960s until a decade ago. Our city of 150,000 lost 10,000 factory jobs since 1990. Also there are scores of houses for sale for months and even years. Schools are closing, fire and police being cut.
What I see is an argument with a few twists in it. China is by no means our only problem — I have clothes which now come from S. american and Africa — there is no question that the US is importing far more than we used to and jobs have been leaving for cheaper labor world wide for decades.
The same goes for the percentage of "energy" — a far broader category than oil and gasoline. We have vast supplies of natural gas, but until the oil barons manage to switch over and make their fortunes there we will see high pump prices.
Debt, while a problem, takes a back seat to dollar destruction.
"Technology and automation has allowed American manufacturers to build more stuff with far fewer workers than in the past." Yes, the rush to cheaper labor killed millions of manufacturing jobs, but computerization and robotics have done away with many more. Even though some is a slowly returning, the need for workers is far lower now. Should we feel better about this? Not if it was your bread and butter.
The US worker/consumer has been losing purchasing power since the 1970s through a variety of methods.
The aggregate change in US wealth, income and standard of living has fallen immensely and will probably never return to the best levels. This is not necessarily unfair, but is certainly noticeable to most Middle Class Americans. Some of this was unavoidable and over population is a global issue. We save lives at birth and put off the exiting, net result needing fewer workers while growing ever more crowded.
While I believe the 24/7 info is overwhelming and much is misleading, this "Misconception" and subsequent "Fact" comment brought a laugh.
--------
"Misconception: Most of what Americans spend their money on is made in China.
Fact: Just 2.7% of personal consumption expenditures go to Chinese-made goods and services. 88.5% of U.S. consumer spending is on American-made goods and services.
I used that statistic in an article last week, and the response from readers was overwhelming: Hogwash. People just didn't believe it."
Now the punch line...
The figure comes from a Federal Reserve report. You can read it here.
pulse,
The president cited “deceptive practices” of the Iranian central bank and an “unacceptable risk” to the international financial system from Iranian activities.
--------
Sanctions again! It worked so well (sarcasm, of course) with Japan when they were doing unspeakable things in China. Well, it made us feel were were at least doing "something".
Always good for a laugh, though — last night on Jay Leno, "Hey, 'unacceptable practices'! What about our own banks?"
The comedians get it… why not the president, the congress, the MSM, the US public at large?
Grym
Cutey! I love the outfit.
First game I took our two boys to back in the late 1970s (a double header) was with my dad and my uncle.
The first game ran 21 innings!
It took a bit of doing to get the two "old boys" to leave. My kids were really itchy by then and I still had a 90 mile drive home. It was a long time before I could interest them in another game ;-)
Today I'm scanning old slides to CDs — lot's of good memories, but nothing from that day, so far.
Bill,
I am pretty well convinced the American public will vote for Obama for a number of (not very scientific) reasons:
• Inertia — It is always easier not to change something.
• His unique talent — He is a great salesman who knows his product (himself). He knows how the system works and how to work the system.
• His backers — Banks (even bigger) and big corporations (even richer) under his time in office. Over $1 billion war chest to show for it.
• Demographics — While the unemployed, over indebted youth are dissatisfied, the older and comfortably retired folks, who always vote, are complacent and still believe his speeches. (Perhaps it's a short term memory thing;-) This is strictly from observing and listening to my peers. Unless their kids are in financial trouble, they're OK with four more of the same... the same being what they hear forecast by MSM. (They accept at face value TV/radio "official data".)
The biggest factor, IMO, is the lack of a really strong candidate opposing him.
• Ron Paul is the only one with meaningful ideas which address our problems and their causes.
• Romney is too bland and too close to Obama in what he has to offer.
• Santorum — nice guy, but uninspiring.
• Gingrich — Inspires uneasiness — heavy baggage from political and matrimonial history.
(I'd love to watch a Gingrich/Obama real debate.)
As an old Cub fan, I guess it's "Wait until next time" for me ;-)
Grym
Les,
"Is this the best that the GOP can field, or are they deliberately setting him up to fail?"
A slightly different question:
Will the two party system allow anyone to be elected not previously anointed by the business/political complex?
Grym
Ilya,
I'm afraid I must agree that Obama has a strong chance of reelection. However, you mentioned the religion/political effect and I believe Obama made a rare slip. He managed to survive the U.S. Senate by voting "present" a record number of times — thus avoiding a track record which could haunt him. The most encouraging thing lately to oppose his second term is his offending the Catholic vote regarding abortion and contraception. Hispanics were a large bloc for him last time.
My preference is Ron Paul, but I fear he has too little funding, the media is against him and, since he is older than I by a couple of years, I think the job would kill him. I hope his son may be able to carry his torch in a few years. If things continue for four more years even more people will be "occupying" and protesting.
I now suspect Reagan was already affected by Altsheimer's when in office and may genuinely not have know about Iran-Contra. My father-in-law suffered periodic periods of memory loss while mostly appearing to be his usual self. Not just "what was it I was about to do?" One day after a lengthy discussion on current events he turned to me and said, " I should know you. right?" I had been married to his daughter for 30 years. The next day he was fine again.
If a president was that spacey while in office, there is no way the public would be allow to know.
Grym
Bill,
Yes, we must have transparency and the Fed reportedly was audited by the GAO at the request of Bernie Sanders:
'Among the investigation's key findings is that the Fed unilaterally provided trillions of dollars in financial assistance to foreign banks and corporations from South Korea to Scotland, according to the GAO report. "No agency of the United States government should be allowed to bailout a foreign bank or corporation without the direct approval of Congress and the president," Sanders said.'
That was last July and so far I have heard no more on the matter.
http://tiny.cc/egvkq
What I am noticing with the Romney statement is consistent use of an edited bite to create controversy — even on Shields and Brooks, not just comedians. This just happens to be something I heard in it's original complete form — so what else am I missing with managed news?
The internet is a wonderful way to get a variety of views, but if corrupted, as it apparently is in China, a very powerful tool for misinformation. If major sites like Google and others cave in to pressures by nations, corporations or politicians we will have flood of questionable info. That is "questionable" by some while accepted by too many.
Far too many people I know are accepting network news, financial and otherwise, at face value.
Grym
Les,
Actually, I was looking back a bit further to 2006, but chose 2007 since the Dow was at about the same level as now.
It's no secret I'm into the human factor more than charts, but certainly people must be a wild card at any time and I would guess more so these days.
No two points on a chart can really "predict" I'm quite sure — too many variables. My cynicism is affected by where I am, no doubt. Our city of 150,000 was just listed by Forbes as the 9th most miserable place in the US — a dubious distinction and having moved "up" from the 14th worst. Will we make it to number one?
However, today there millions more across the country who are also worse off than ever. Perhaps if "misery loves company" it feels even worse to be unemployed in the midst of people going to work, taking vacations, buying a new car or house at a bargain — in other words living what was for decades considered normal in the US for most of us.
This makes me question how much will the mood of US consumers affect the market's path? In an election year can the MSM spin overcome the internet buzz? How will the strength or weakness of the US dollar determine corporate foreign sales? What other factors are there we have no clues about zooming around the world?
Grym
Pulse,
I went there just long enough to get a feel for it — looks interesting to me.
I'm always curious what makes people do (or not do ) things. In my recent reading of "The Japanese Imperial Conspiracy," by David Bergamini I just read a segment last night from 1935. "The Century of Self" is the exact opposite of what is the main theme in the book.
At that time there was a push devised by the emperor to remove the western influence which had promoted individualism. The plan was to instill a national mood and lifestyle in which the emperor was god (not "an organ of the state"), and the Japanese people were to be considered as a whole — one family.
That was for the masses (like our 99%) there were various layers of the more privileged in a complicated ranking of power and influence who had their own rules and customs.
I found the longer (2 vol) version several years ago and just got around to reading this winter. One of the interesting things I've learned is of the practice of "belly talk" — saying something directly, but with both the speaker and some of the listeners knowing the exact opposite is meant. This was acted out both verbally and in print. Hmmmm. Not something so foreign at all. It seems to have a familiar ring to it. This was written 30 years after Pearl Harbor and makes me wonder what will be written of the US in 2030 or 2040.
My interest in WWII led me to accept the general views expressed about the Japanese army being the driving force for that war, however, there is adequate documentation to indicate that Hirohito first conceived his Southeast Asia conquest and possible war with the US as early as 1920.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan%27s_Imperial_Co...
I plan to watch "The Century of Self" in segments. Thanks for the link, I appreciate it.
Grym
Les,
I wonder if there is any way to see what Pulplava was saying back in 2007-2008.
A look at a graph back then, to a nearly technical illiterate like me, looks like we may have another ten percent upside — but then again... couldn't it just keep going to the old record ?
Here it is with my favorite "safe" investment:
Bear E,
In my reply to Bill's McCluhan reference about the Japanese charades makes even actions difficult to judge for a very long time. People, both individuals and groups or nations can be very clever.
Much of our own such behavior is held for 30 years and even then how will we ever know what is never revealed?
I have a friend who is confident those who live a lie cannot be truly happy. My contention is they can go on making others unhappy far too long.
"The truth will set you free."
But, yes, living as honestly as possible can be freeing. My grandmother had a saying in Swedish (wish I could remember exactly) — "Liars need to have a very good memory."
Have a good weekend.
Grym
Bill,
Right. I didn't read the book back then. (Earning $3/hour and had never invested in anything except a very small bank savings account.), but I have read countless references as relating to advertising since.
I have to say that today as I watch TV commercials, I'm not always sure if the message is anything more than , "See what I can do with my newest software".
At times, I wonder if life was ever truly simple, or if I have always been missing the message.
About half way through a two volume set of "The Imperial Japanese Conspiracy," which documents that for several decades preceding WWII, there was so much duplicity and pretense, both for the Japanese citizens and the world at large that hardly anyone could have known what was true from published accounts.
It is pretty tempting to list possible similarities throughout history. Not much is clearly defined in real time.
Grym
The age-old question—What is Truth?
The lyrics from an old song say, "It ain't what you say, it's the way how you say it."
We need to be aware of this more than ever, in the day of the "Sound Bite"...
Yesterday the jobs report was spun to be very improved. It simply ignored that 1,177,000 workers were dropped from consideration. They're neither employed or unemployed — it's as if they no longer exist.
Romney made a statement which was on the radio early this week. Something immediately told me to watch the editing of Romney's comment which began, "I'm not concerned about the very poor..."
Sure enough that night Jay Leno used it. I'm confident other such "major news sources" have informed the average citizen. I wonder how many people will have heard the rest of what was said, in context.
Here is the whole statement.
"I'm not concerned about the very poor," the Republican presidential candidate said on CNN Wednesday morning. "There's a safety net there, and if it needs repair I'll fix it. I'm not concerned about the very rich, they're doing just fine. I'm concerned about the heart of America, the 95% of Americans who are right now struggling.
I can't say I'm wild about Romney, but don't want to get into that. What bothers me is that so many people I discuss issues with are so quick to accept "news" whether on TV, the Net, or the supermarket tabloid rack.
Especially in an election year, but more than ever before... "It ain't what you say, it's the way how you say it."
Grym
dnfrm,
I have been using the Vanguard GNMA fund (VFIIX) as a cash parking place for several years now. Here is a 5-year picture.
Not very exciting — which is why I like it;-)
Grym
I also found this very interesting. The one-world suspicions have been around for a long time and looking at changes over the past several decades certainly seem heading in that direction.
We have far more people in the US who are government dependent than ever before. With an all volunteer military, many who didn't plan on anything more than a boost to their chances of going to college are now ten-year vets — halfway to a pension. Food stamps rather than bread lines. 99 week unemployment, etc.
Ron Paul makes a lot of sense to us here, but I'm not getting the same acceptance from acquaintances who are MSM sound bite listeners. To them he is a nut case who, as my cousin emailed me this week, "Wants to drag us back to 1900 with his isolationist views. All he will do is steal votes from the conservatives and assure more of the Obama policies."
More gov. mothering Illinois laws came on this month:
• Illegal to smoke in a vehicle in which there is a person under the age of 18
• Back seat passengers must wear seat belts (School buses have no belts.)
Perhaps these are just distractions while the whole world merges under non-elected control. Who knows?
Grym
Telestar3d,
I have found fish oil is a help to my chronic lower back pain. Also for a bad knee and arthritis in my hand.
Not a cure, but certainly a help.
Grym
Yes, Thanks.
Grym
Vad,
We both seem to be "reading into" each other's comments. I never said the "data is incorrect", just that without knowing how it was collected — who was asked and how, what was included or omitted, I have no reason to accept it. The fact that The Fed was one of the data contributors gives me zero confidence in the author's article. While reading "Maestro" it seemed obvious to me that Greenspan's minions were stroking his ego when his tactics and pronouncements were in question regarding productivity. This I expect is universal as I saw it so often in corporate situations.
I have no need to convince you of anything, I'm just stating my views.
Here is an article with data which you may or may not find relevant. I can give more anecdotal testimony of my personal experience with the authors. After finding my overall investments in dire straights when the 2008-2009 troubles hit, I invested heavily in their mutual fund (WHOSX) and ended the year substantially in the black.
http://tiny.cc/rercv
Here again, I cannot claim this data to be accurate — it is as yours is — not something I have the ability to verify.
As for my opinion at this blog, surely you must remember the furor which my comments aroused recently. Also, the off blog emails in which we came to an impasse because you wanted me to alter my convictions.
Grym
Vad,
"Let me leave aside all the general discussion of the jobs export, debt, dollar destruction - you'll have to forgive me for not being interested in stating for 1897th time that it's bad. Nor am I interested much in arguing about benefits and disadvantages of "computerization and robotics" - it's not like those can be stopped any more than earthquakes or hurricanes."
To me this is like the old joke, "Aside from that, Mrs Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play."
If you are only interested in data which makes you a better trader or lets you ignore what is actually happening to people — enjoy yourself.
On the other hand, some recent data I have read are 48 million in the US are now on food stamps and here in my city as of Jan.2011 we had 400 families frequenting food pantries (up from 175 in 2010). Our latest unemployment is an admitted 11.5%. I can't prove either of these... nor can I disprove.
This is data I can believe, since I know some of these individuals.
To me verifying or contradicting data with other date is futile without knowing:
A. How was the data generated? Questions and phrasing are important.
B. What was the goal of the collector? Agency workers are like Army Privates — they present what they know is wanted.
If you have ever been involved in such you must know it can be slanted to suit those asking for it. Forty years in advertising leaves me unimpressed with data. And after working on more than 70 corporate annual reports, financial data is especially suspect.
I also realize this is not necessarily germane to short term trading, but certainly can be to investors
Grym
Note: I know my opinion is unwelcome here, but it is what I see and don't much care for data, especially from the Fed. Much of the other MSM sound bite data appears far different if the whole story is researched at BLS or the Census Bureau. The CPI data has been distorted for years due to things like "Owner Equivalent Rent" which as a lagging indicator hid housing inflation and now is hiding the deflation. (I believe this is about 40% of the index>)
I only entered this discussion because it was a non-trading day.
Vad,
A link? No. What I have is a city much like Detroit. Empty buildings — thousands of square feet which produced furniture, clothing, machine tools, aerospace items, auto parts, fasteners, cabinet hardware, heavy machinery... All of these were my clients from the early 1960s until a decade ago. Our city of 150,000 lost 10,000 factory jobs since 1990. Also there are scores of houses for sale for months and even years. Schools are closing, fire and police being cut.
What I see is an argument with a few twists in it. China is by no means our only problem — I have clothes which now come from S. american and Africa — there is no question that the US is importing far more than we used to and jobs have been leaving for cheaper labor world wide for decades.
The same goes for the percentage of "energy" — a far broader category than oil and gasoline. We have vast supplies of natural gas, but until the oil barons manage to switch over and make their fortunes there we will see high pump prices.
Debt, while a problem, takes a back seat to dollar destruction.
"Technology and automation has allowed American manufacturers to build more stuff with far fewer workers than in the past." Yes, the rush to cheaper labor killed millions of manufacturing jobs, but computerization and robotics have done away with many more. Even though some is a slowly returning, the need for workers is far lower now. Should we feel better about this? Not if it was your bread and butter.
The US worker/consumer has been losing purchasing power since the 1970s through a variety of methods.
The aggregate change in US wealth, income and standard of living has fallen immensely and will probably never return to the best levels. This is not necessarily unfair, but is certainly noticeable to most Middle Class Americans. Some of this was unavoidable and over population is a global issue. We save lives at birth and put off the exiting, net result needing fewer workers while growing ever more crowded.
Grym
Vad,
While I believe the 24/7 info is overwhelming and much is misleading, this "Misconception" and subsequent "Fact" comment brought a laugh.
--------
"Misconception: Most of what Americans spend their money on is made in China.
Fact: Just 2.7% of personal consumption expenditures go to Chinese-made goods and services. 88.5% of U.S. consumer spending is on American-made goods and services.
I used that statistic in an article last week, and the response from readers was overwhelming: Hogwash. People just didn't believe it."
Now the punch line...
The figure comes from a Federal Reserve report. You can read it here.
Grym ;-)
In case you missed this Fed item:
http://tiny.cc/5qldz