The RSI 7 for $SILVER:$GOLD is now 19. After reading your last WIR, you said that one should be a buyer of precious metals when this indicator dips below 30. What exactly are we buying - gold bullion? Silver appears to be in a downslide and Gold appears to be overbought. Can you please explain what you meant in the WIR.
Can anyone explain why silver is down so much more than gold? I think I remember Bill saying that Silver leads Gold although I could be wrong or have that reversed. Just wondeing if this is any type of indicator to now short gold. Thanks in advance
I recently was laid off from my finance job and have decided to focus my extra time on taking my knowledge of the capital markets up a notch. I was wondering if anyone had any suggestions on "setting up my trading room". What equipment, software, books, etc would you suggest that I obtain to try to make this happen.
Does anyone here pay for monthly services that you feel are very beneficial to your trading and would recommend to others? I was looking at briefing.com which gives you real time alerts and other pay services like the Kirk Report to see if other people here feel that they provide real value which translates to real $ in your portfolio? Thanks
Nemo and any others - Can you look at the chart for RMBS please. I'm short this one with an avg cost of $19 - can't wait to cover. I'm a newbie at charts but wondering if the most recent 3 days signify an evening star? Max pain is $19 and wondering if I should cover by the close of tomorrow. Any help on this chart would be greatly appreciated. TIA GH
Thank you for the replies - Nemo when you say you would set your stop at the height of the candle are you referring to the height of the long green candle 3 days ago - approx $20.50? - are you saying that would be where you would look to cover the short? I feel like I need to cover at a loss since I agree that thee is no resistance till 26 - Thanks again
Looking for some help on short term RMBS - I shorted the stock outright around $19 and watched it break out to new highs on high volume over the past week. Just hoping someone who is better at technical analysis than me can help me decide whether to cover my short here or hold on till the general market rolls over?
Agreed that I've never had a problem with spam on this site, however I have had issues with a couple of individuals that I'm glad to have seen banned. A couple of bad apples should not ruin this great experience of reading Bill and other well written comments by the community. I'm fine putting people like Korvus in control and letting them in their subjective opinion warn and then ban people from the site. One warning or zero warnings and then you're gone.
Does anyone know of a blog or twitter account that brought attention to today's increase in 3com call option volume prior to the end of the trading day? TIA
Agreed which is why I'm not convinced the market is topping out. I so want this market to go down like Bill has forecasted, but it just doesn't seem to be happening. I agree that the fundamentals aren't there, but that isn't stopping this market run-up. Like many others I am in cash wanting to take advantage of a downswing which is why it might not happen. I've been 100% in cash for awhile now and this market isn't letting anyone in. A sign of a bull market. As Vad has said "trade what you see not what you think". I've been following another blog that focuses on contrarian trading and he has been and continues to be bullish calling for move to 1120 on the S&P very soon.
I found this website and 2007 and it was the impetus behind my current passion for the markets and taking control of my portfolio. I made every mistake imaginable during 2000 run-up and crash.
Why is Bill here - I think Bill is here to share his wealth of knowledge about the capital markets and his hope is that will make us think more and eventually become better traders/investors. As Bill writes and shares his knowledge he is actually learning himself.
Why am I here - To learn as much as I can from Bill and select posters such as Vad, SI02, 2nd Ave, Number2Son and ToddinFL. I also find Bill's track record of insights and predictions to be spot on much of the time.
2nd Ave - Say it isn't so - I sincerely hope that if you take a break from the market and this blog that it's only temporary. This blog and your posts helped me over time become a true student of the market. You along with Bill have a special gift in your ability to write on a level that many of us can relate to. I have seen your compassion in your writing as many of us were having a tough time over the past year. You are humble and always kept your cool. I wish you the best in wherever this journey takes you. GH
I'm so confused - feels like there are 50% bulls and 50% bears. Is it me or does everyone else on TV think that we will have a correction very soon? Finding it hard to sell into a rally which seems to be expected by everyone. The quote below makes more sense to me. Anyone else have a thought?
"As investors are not buying into the rally, one might conclude that the rally will march onward and upward until they do, and then it will rollover. That seems likely." - Guy Lerner
Interesting take and things to think about from the Kirk Report:
I absolutely love days like this and it is not because I'm making money hand over first (as I'm clearly not) but rather I think I've finally found a solid edge (i.e. being short some unsustainable cherry-picked situations - see today's short screen for ideas). That's exciting to me even if these trades don't pan out quickly or even at all. (As you know from reading me, I can handle being wrong and will admit it without hesitation if that happens.)
From what I've been seeing out there, the S&P appears magnetized to S&P 1,000. In fact, given the current pace, we'll be at S&P 1100 before the end of next week. So I asked one of the more experienced traders who is very bullish within my mentorship circle to create a list of "things that could go wrong" for the market within the next few weeks. After asking why he should waste his time, he struggled to come up with anything beyond the typical stuff - i.e. market overbought and overdue for a sizable pullback, earnings don't really support the magnitude of the rally, when earnings season ends there are very few catalysts to drive the market higher, this move is based mostly on short-covering, and there is large-scale performance anxiety enabling stocks that go up big continue to go up big to "unsustainable" prices (at least over the short-term).
So, I ask you, what do you think can go wrong now in addition to all of these things?
This is exactly the kind of question that experience suggests that we all should be asking even if we don't want to. At the same point, those of us sidelined or short need to asking the exact opposite question - What is going to "continue to go right" for Mr. Market this summer and beyond?
As always, we all have to trade the market we see not the one we hope for or are positioned well to benefit from. Speaking of which, I will readily admit that the market sure feels and looks like it has in the past when it was coming out of a bear market bottom - i.e. fierce gains, no pullbacks to speak of, a false breakdown to shake out nervous longs before a major rally, every little dip is bought aggressively AND the growing perception and confidence that pullbacks will continue to be bought, no weakness even in severe overbought conditions, the return of M&A activity, historical research that shows that after periods of intense momentum like this that the market has a tendency to keep moving higher over various forward time-frames, today's Dow Theory confirmation (see IYT) and continued skepticism over the rally especially from those who also also aren't participating in the rally. Does that sound about right to you?
Beyond these market observations and opinions on both sides of the tape, please remember our task remains the same - to find and exploit low-risk, high-reward situations at all times. For the time being, I'm simply looking for AND finding more attractive setups on the short-side while having a more than a difficult time justifying being long or chasing stocks that have been up nearly every day since earnings season began and which don't offer what I think are good risk/reward setups now. But, that's just me.
Perhaps everything I know and have learned so far is wrong and the only risk out there is being short and sidelined and that chasing the market now is the way to untold riches. Frankly, I hope that is the case as I know far too many people who seriously need this market to rally significantly higher in order just to get back to where they were at this time last year. As an optimist at heart, I'd love for the bull market to return more than anything.
With that known, for me it simply comes down to where I can find opportunity. Maybe you are finding opportunities are plentiful on the long side and which you consider good risk/reward situations. That's ok. After all, that's what makes a market. But, you know where I stand, what I'm doing, and how important it is to keep an open mind considering both sides of this tape.
I can't seem to do it. I need help. I kept telling myself just a little more and I would sell. Like a deer caught in the headlights. Anyone else have these same problems :)
Great stuff Bev - Thanks for sharing - I was in awe after watching yesterday's launch as it always amazes me how we can send all that equipment from earth to outer space.
Bill,
The RSI 7 for $SILVER:$GOLD is now 19. After reading your last WIR, you said that one should be a buyer of precious metals when this indicator dips below 30. What exactly are we buying - gold bullion? Silver appears to be in a downslide and Gold appears to be overbought. Can you please explain what you meant in the WIR.
Thanks in advance
GH
Can anyone explain why silver is down so much more than gold? I think I remember Bill saying that Silver leads Gold although I could be wrong or have that reversed. Just wondeing if this is any type of indicator to now short gold. Thanks in advance
I recently was laid off from my finance job and have decided to focus my extra time on taking my knowledge of the capital markets up a notch. I was wondering if anyone had any suggestions on "setting up my trading room". What equipment, software, books, etc would you suggest that I obtain to try to make this happen.
TIA
GH
Thanks Kyle - No I hadn't seen that - you just saved me $50/month :)
Does anyone here pay for monthly services that you feel are very beneficial to your trading and would recommend to others? I was looking at briefing.com which gives you real time alerts and other pay services like the Kirk Report to see if other people here feel that they provide real value which translates to real $ in your portfolio? Thanks
Nemo and any others - Can you look at the chart for RMBS please. I'm short this one with an avg cost of $19 - can't wait to cover. I'm a newbie at charts but wondering if the most recent 3 days signify an evening star? Max pain is $19 and wondering if I should cover by the close of tomorrow. Any help on this chart would be greatly appreciated. TIA GH
Thank you for the replies - Nemo when you say you would set your stop at the height of the candle are you referring to the height of the long green candle 3 days ago - approx $20.50? - are you saying that would be where you would look to cover the short? I feel like I need to cover at a loss since I agree that thee is no resistance till 26 - Thanks again
Looking for some help on short term RMBS - I shorted the stock outright around $19 and watched it break out to new highs on high volume over the past week. Just hoping someone who is better at technical analysis than me can help me decide whether to cover my short here or hold on till the general market rolls over?
TIA GH
Agreed that I've never had a problem with spam on this site, however I have had issues with a couple of individuals that I'm glad to have seen banned. A couple of bad apples should not ruin this great experience of reading Bill and other well written comments by the community. I'm fine putting people like Korvus in control and letting them in their subjective opinion warn and then ban people from the site. One warning or zero warnings and then you're gone.
Does anyone know of a blog or twitter account that brought attention to today's increase in 3com call option volume prior to the end of the trading day? TIA
Agreed which is why I'm not convinced the market is topping out. I so want this market to go down like Bill has forecasted, but it just doesn't seem to be happening. I agree that the fundamentals aren't there, but that isn't stopping this market run-up. Like many others I am in cash wanting to take advantage of a downswing which is why it might not happen. I've been 100% in cash for awhile now and this market isn't letting anyone in. A sign of a bull market. As Vad has said "trade what you see not what you think". I've been following another blog that focuses on contrarian trading and he has been and continues to be bullish calling for move to 1120 on the S&P very soon.
I noticed that KGC has been falling or underperforming the other miners that I track. Does anyone have any insight on this? No position. TIA
I can only seem to view the first page of the report. Is the whole briefing available in a PDF format? TIA
I found this website and 2007 and it was the impetus behind my current passion for the markets and taking control of my portfolio. I made every mistake imaginable during 2000 run-up and crash.
Why is Bill here - I think Bill is here to share his wealth of knowledge about the capital markets and his hope is that will make us think more and eventually become better traders/investors. As Bill writes and shares his knowledge he is actually learning himself.
Why am I here - To learn as much as I can from Bill and select posters such as Vad, SI02, 2nd Ave, Number2Son and ToddinFL. I also find Bill's track record of insights and predictions to be spot on much of the time.
Thank you for providing this blog.
Found this on Jesse's Cafe' blog
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v-twLAaMD9w
2nd Ave - Say it isn't so - I sincerely hope that if you take a break from the market and this blog that it's only temporary. This blog and your posts helped me over time become a true student of the market. You along with Bill have a special gift in your ability to write on a level that many of us can relate to. I have seen your compassion in your writing as many of us were having a tough time over the past year. You are humble and always kept your cool. I wish you the best in wherever this journey takes you. GH
I'm so confused - feels like there are 50% bulls and 50% bears. Is it me or does everyone else on TV think that we will have a correction very soon? Finding it hard to sell into a rally which seems to be expected by everyone. The quote below makes more sense to me. Anyone else have a thought?
"As investors are not buying into the rally, one might conclude that the rally will march onward and upward until they do, and then it will rollover. That seems likely." - Guy Lerner
Interesting take and things to think about from the Kirk Report:
I absolutely love days like this and it is not because I'm making money hand over first (as I'm clearly not) but rather I think I've finally found a solid edge (i.e. being short some unsustainable cherry-picked situations - see today's short screen for ideas). That's exciting to me even if these trades don't pan out quickly or even at all. (As you know from reading me, I can handle being wrong and will admit it without hesitation if that happens.)
From what I've been seeing out there, the S&P appears magnetized to S&P 1,000. In fact, given the current pace, we'll be at S&P 1100 before the end of next week. So I asked one of the more experienced traders who is very bullish within my mentorship circle to create a list of "things that could go wrong" for the market within the next few weeks. After asking why he should waste his time, he struggled to come up with anything beyond the typical stuff - i.e. market overbought and overdue for a sizable pullback, earnings don't really support the magnitude of the rally, when earnings season ends there are very few catalysts to drive the market higher, this move is based mostly on short-covering, and there is large-scale performance anxiety enabling stocks that go up big continue to go up big to "unsustainable" prices (at least over the short-term).
So, I ask you, what do you think can go wrong now in addition to all of these things?
This is exactly the kind of question that experience suggests that we all should be asking even if we don't want to. At the same point, those of us sidelined or short need to asking the exact opposite question - What is going to "continue to go right" for Mr. Market this summer and beyond?
As always, we all have to trade the market we see not the one we hope for or are positioned well to benefit from. Speaking of which, I will readily admit that the market sure feels and looks like it has in the past when it was coming out of a bear market bottom - i.e. fierce gains, no pullbacks to speak of, a false breakdown to shake out nervous longs before a major rally, every little dip is bought aggressively AND the growing perception and confidence that pullbacks will continue to be bought, no weakness even in severe overbought conditions, the return of M&A activity, historical research that shows that after periods of intense momentum like this that the market has a tendency to keep moving higher over various forward time-frames, today's Dow Theory confirmation (see IYT) and continued skepticism over the rally especially from those who also also aren't participating in the rally. Does that sound about right to you?
Beyond these market observations and opinions on both sides of the tape, please remember our task remains the same - to find and exploit low-risk, high-reward situations at all times. For the time being, I'm simply looking for AND finding more attractive setups on the short-side while having a more than a difficult time justifying being long or chasing stocks that have been up nearly every day since earnings season began and which don't offer what I think are good risk/reward setups now. But, that's just me.
Perhaps everything I know and have learned so far is wrong and the only risk out there is being short and sidelined and that chasing the market now is the way to untold riches. Frankly, I hope that is the case as I know far too many people who seriously need this market to rally significantly higher in order just to get back to where they were at this time last year. As an optimist at heart, I'd love for the bull market to return more than anything.
With that known, for me it simply comes down to where I can find opportunity. Maybe you are finding opportunities are plentiful on the long side and which you consider good risk/reward situations. That's ok. After all, that's what makes a market. But, you know where I stand, what I'm doing, and how important it is to keep an open mind considering both sides of this tape.
I can't wait to see what's next!
I can't seem to do it. I need help. I kept telling myself just a little more and I would sell. Like a deer caught in the headlights. Anyone else have these same problems :)
Great stuff Bev - Thanks for sharing - I was in awe after watching yesterday's launch as it always amazes me how we can send all that equipment from earth to outer space.