Its been 4 months since the last interview at our house (total of 4 actual interviews for at least 500, maybe 1000 job apps for jobs she was qualified or overqualified for in the 2 yrs since she has been looking), and essentially, there is no hope left whatsoever.
When they eventually stop extending the unemployment (it almost covers heath insurance only), we will dump the house for whatever we can get and try to retire somewhere the cost of living is lower.
That's GROWTH for you! You can surely expect our spending to increase in future, LOL.
4 downgrades on INTC today. That would be the very last straw for a lot of folks. Gotta take risks sometimes.
The deal will make them top player in those ipad communication chips and I bet we see it integrated in their other chipsets as well, thus reducing size, cost, and power consumption. Might take them a year, but they are capable of it, and will do it.
Even if the rest of the world ends, Intel will survive, because computers are here for at least as long as I live, and computers need chipsets.
If I were to do the laddered CD's again today, I think I would not only divide them among banks, but also among currencies so that it all wouldn't be exposed to US dollar risk. Obviously, if the total dollar amount wasn't significant, the effort required to do so might not be worthwhile. The is a bank named Everbank that advertises being able to put your money in any of many currencies, although I haven't dealt with them myself to date.
Last I heard they were going to extend the $250k limit, but I guess until they do, they didn't.
My sis setup the CD ladder for my Mom about a year ago, and I guess you are correct, the pickings are slimmer now, but I'm sure if you hunt around you can find something FDIC insured in the 2% range anyway, but yes, it might not be convenient, LOL
My money market account at the bank pays 3% and is insured to $250k. There is a another bank 2 mi away paying 3% on 1 yr Cd's last time I passed by the sign. That would also be insured up to $250k. Looks like down to 2% currently.
Yes, Ross, real inflation from dollar debasement and devaluation of 15 to 25% per year sounds like the plan to me, too, because they have no both acceptable and easier solution. My bet is that will be reported as 3 to 4% inflation, thus lowering the standard of living for everyone who's income is tied to the CPI or interest rates.
Its a sad ending for "the land of the free, and the home of the brave", now reduced to subsistence dependent on fuels and manufactured goods from abroad, and their willingness to accept worthless confetti or promises of additional even more worthless confetti at a later date for those goods.
My worry is that we trade NOMINAL values, not real values, so we must bet on the NET price after the invisible hands of Keynesians debasing the currency have done their dirty deeds.
Yes, I too read that bullish sentiment is very low, but what I don't understand is that we haven't seen any mutual fund redemptions, like what usually occur when the last of retail finally give up and sell. I recall the panic of redemption exits causing the last of the 87 crash.
My mom is still stubbornly long, admittedly a bunch having been pulled off into a ladder of 1 yr CD's paying 3 to 4%, but it seems to me that there is usually some sort of retail exit panic at the bottom when they finally dump their mutual funds. I also recall in the past the tax loss selling if the market is down off highs, and that is why September has historically been a bad month, partly because of that, I think. Even though the 87 crash was in Oct, Oct is typically a good month, maybe because it follows Sept, after everyone has bailed out.
I wonder what sentiment looked like before the other crashes and major declines unfolded. I also wonder what happens to stocks if bond interest rates begin to rise. I heard recently the the CDS on US debt are getting a lot more expensive. IMO, at some point soon that should begin to affect rates.
To get out of a depression, doesn't debt need to be written off or repaid down to where its low enough that growth can occur again?
I ask that because I don't see any movement in that direction at all, which makes me wonder if we will end up with a "lost generation, or 30 year depression" that lasts until the baby boomers die off, similar to the one Japan is in that started in the 80's.
IMO, history doesn't necessarily repeat, but it sure does rhyme.
And certainly wasn't going to improve anytime soon after their idiotic, waste of money, takeover recently, and decided to put out some matching (but less severe) bad news to shake out the remaining shareholders and force the shorts to cover.
I had just bought it in premarket this am, figuring it was so beaten down it couldn't go much lower...
What a POS
I got lucky and made money selling the bounce, but the crash in the meantime and apparent locked up screens with $200k on the line about gave me a heart attack.
All back to confetti cash, now. NOTHING is worth holding or owning in this market, IMO.
I've seen its effects in every single manufacturing business I worked for. All but 2 are gone now. The politicians on both sides, aided by the Fed and economists, sold the entire nation down the river.
May they all rot in hell for what they have done.
The founders, were they alive, would be mortified to see the results. It bears no resemblance to the United States they created.
Dr, I'm fine with there being multiple if-then-else scenarios, as long as the criteria for when they are satisfied or not is CLEAR.
"Gold is headed for a test of key support at $1170. Failure would warn of another test of primary support at $1060."
Did it fail key support at $1170? How would "failure" be defined?
I think Bill is saying he saw it that it DID NOT fail $1170 support as I read his post, but my impression was that it did fail $1170 and therefore the test at $1060 was to be expected, so I need to understand the definition, because that was the post I read that influenced my decisions (shouldn't say caused) me to take big losses and small short term gains on the metal ETF and mining shares I bought when gold was in that panic (bought at $1168 to $1163). They would have been huge gains had I held on.
Maybe I read/interpreted it wrong. I read it that since it then failed $1170 he was calling for retest of $1060. Are you saying you didn't think it failed $1170? It was obviously in a panic at that point with IIRC everyone saying sell or short on deflation fears, I think. My reason for asking, is if we assume he was right, how would I correctly define "failed $1170"?
To be honest, I have worse problems reading others writings, when they aren't as specific as he is.
Yet monthly jobs numbers are considered good?
Its been 4 months since the last interview at our house (total of 4 actual interviews for at least 500, maybe 1000 job apps for jobs she was qualified or overqualified for in the 2 yrs since she has been looking), and essentially, there is no hope left whatsoever.
When they eventually stop extending the unemployment (it almost covers heath insurance only), we will dump the house for whatever we can get and try to retire somewhere the cost of living is lower.
That's GROWTH for you! You can surely expect our spending to increase in future, LOL.
IMO, its too bad those jobs don't have any names or paychecks to go with them...
And they will find a way to fund it and reap a hunk of the take, as well.
I bet the operation isn't even shut down for 1 trading day as a result. Figure they will move it to a lower tax venue while they are at it, LOL.
That would be the kickoff for a dollar crisis, wouldn't it, when holders of treasuries become afraid to hold them any longer.
Germany's post WW I depression was ended by QE, too, but things didn't work out so well in terms of the "exit", LOL.
Maybe little kids will use the stacks of dollars for blocks and build castles out of them like the kids back then did....
Took a loss on Intel in premarket.
4 downgrades on INTC today. That would be the very last straw for a lot of folks. Gotta take risks sometimes.
The deal will make them top player in those ipad communication chips and I bet we see it integrated in their other chipsets as well, thus reducing size, cost, and power consumption. Might take them a year, but they are capable of it, and will do it.
Even if the rest of the world ends, Intel will survive, because computers are here for at least as long as I live, and computers need chipsets.
George,
If I were to do the laddered CD's again today, I think I would not only divide them among banks, but also among currencies so that it all wouldn't be exposed to US dollar risk. Obviously, if the total dollar amount wasn't significant, the effort required to do so might not be worthwhile. The is a bank named Everbank that advertises being able to put your money in any of many currencies, although I haven't dealt with them myself to date.
http://www.everbank.com/001Currency.aspx
There might be other banks with these types of accounts now as well, but I don't know of any.
george,
Last I heard they were going to extend the $250k limit, but I guess until they do, they didn't.
My sis setup the CD ladder for my Mom about a year ago, and I guess you are correct, the pickings are slimmer now, but I'm sure if you hunt around you can find something FDIC insured in the 2% range anyway, but yes, it might not be convenient, LOL
My money market account at the bank pays 3% and is insured to $250k. There is a another bank 2 mi away paying 3% on 1 yr Cd's last time I passed by the sign. That would also be insured up to $250k. Looks like down to 2% currently.
Here is a site with others at higher rates
http://ratebrain.com/
Yes, Ross, real inflation from dollar debasement and devaluation of 15 to 25% per year sounds like the plan to me, too, because they have no both acceptable and easier solution. My bet is that will be reported as 3 to 4% inflation, thus lowering the standard of living for everyone who's income is tied to the CPI or interest rates.
Its a sad ending for "the land of the free, and the home of the brave", now reduced to subsistence dependent on fuels and manufactured goods from abroad, and their willingness to accept worthless confetti or promises of additional even more worthless confetti at a later date for those goods.
My worry is that we trade NOMINAL values, not real values, so we must bet on the NET price after the invisible hands of Keynesians debasing the currency have done their dirty deeds.
Yes, I too read that bullish sentiment is very low, but what I don't understand is that we haven't seen any mutual fund redemptions, like what usually occur when the last of retail finally give up and sell. I recall the panic of redemption exits causing the last of the 87 crash.
My mom is still stubbornly long, admittedly a bunch having been pulled off into a ladder of 1 yr CD's paying 3 to 4%, but it seems to me that there is usually some sort of retail exit panic at the bottom when they finally dump their mutual funds. I also recall in the past the tax loss selling if the market is down off highs, and that is why September has historically been a bad month, partly because of that, I think. Even though the 87 crash was in Oct, Oct is typically a good month, maybe because it follows Sept, after everyone has bailed out.
I wonder what sentiment looked like before the other crashes and major declines unfolded. I also wonder what happens to stocks if bond interest rates begin to rise. I heard recently the the CDS on US debt are getting a lot more expensive. IMO, at some point soon that should begin to affect rates.
To get out of a depression, doesn't debt need to be written off or repaid down to where its low enough that growth can occur again?
I ask that because I don't see any movement in that direction at all, which makes me wonder if we will end up with a "lost generation, or 30 year depression" that lasts until the baby boomers die off, similar to the one Japan is in that started in the 80's.
IMO, history doesn't necessarily repeat, but it sure does rhyme.
You can cover a depression up with green toilet paper, but it still stinks underneath.
It is refreshing to see that now a few respected economists have recognized it for what it is...
And certainly wasn't going to improve anytime soon after their idiotic, waste of money, takeover recently, and decided to put out some matching (but less severe) bad news to shake out the remaining shareholders and force the shorts to cover.
The jobless have been looking fruitlessly for 2 years, now, most of them.
Denial isn't just a river in Egypt, but its always nice to see that our leaders can still pretend things are recovering with a straight face...
Vad, I won't argue with your success, but at the same time its the only play I can run well, so when I see it called, I run it...
I had just bought it in premarket this am, figuring it was so beaten down it couldn't go much lower...
What a POS
I got lucky and made money selling the bounce, but the crash in the meantime and apparent locked up screens with $200k on the line about gave me a heart attack.
All back to confetti cash, now. NOTHING is worth holding or owning in this market, IMO.
I've seen its effects in every single manufacturing business I worked for. All but 2 are gone now. The politicians on both sides, aided by the Fed and economists, sold the entire nation down the river.
May they all rot in hell for what they have done.
The founders, were they alive, would be mortified to see the results. It bears no resemblance to the United States they created.
Dr, I'm fine with there being multiple if-then-else scenarios, as long as the criteria for when they are satisfied or not is CLEAR.
"Gold is headed for a test of key support at $1170. Failure would warn of another test of primary support at $1060."
Did it fail key support at $1170? How would "failure" be defined?
I think Bill is saying he saw it that it DID NOT fail $1170 support as I read his post, but my impression was that it did fail $1170 and therefore the test at $1060 was to be expected, so I need to understand the definition, because that was the post I read that influenced my decisions (shouldn't say caused) me to take big losses and small short term gains on the metal ETF and mining shares I bought when gold was in that panic (bought at $1168 to $1163). They would have been huge gains had I held on.
Maybe I read/interpreted it wrong. I read it that since it then failed $1170 he was calling for retest of $1060. Are you saying you didn't think it failed $1170? It was obviously in a panic at that point with IIRC everyone saying sell or short on deflation fears, I think. My reason for asking, is if we assume he was right, how would I correctly define "failed $1170"?
To be honest, I have worse problems reading others writings, when they aren't as specific as he is.