Look Vad,
don't try to convince me that the trading volume in Dec 2011-Jan 2012 is high by any standards as it simply is not. The original premise was that the trading was as low as 1999 and the NYSE charts confirmed that. I appreciate your comment that NYSE is not everything and I acknowledge that.
But, it looks like now you want to argue for the sake of arguing and I have no time for that. This is my last post on this.
BTW, Attached is monthly QQQ chart that shows lowest monthly volume since 2000.
Sure enough some securities don't show this effect and have peaking volume now (like JNK and HYG).
Good job! In retrospect, bears activity spiked in the last couple of days (I didn't expect that given the huge gap). Now we are seeing those few bears killed.
I admit Ben clearly delivers on his printing promise no matter what.
You are right. I checked NASDAQ and its Jan 2012 nominal volume is low, but not a record low. It's 2nd lowest since 9/2007. The lowest is Dec 2011. So, the recent volumes are very low compared to moving average. The big question is if they will bounce back and why.
Thanks, Bill, but I can't easily digest that data.
I'm doing some searches on "trading volume lightest since 1999" and I'm getting hits from various blogs dated 2000-2001 and April 2011. This makes me concerned some.
"the volume over the past few months has continued to get lighter and lighter. Not only does this mean the institutions are no longer buying but it also is the lightest volume since 1999. This was just prior to the technology bubble collapsing"
"a reasonable interpretation of the January employment report is that fewer jobs were lost in January than the BLS estimated that the economy should have lost on the basis of seasonal patterns. The economy is essentially bouncing around the flatline"
He noticed that weather alone could explain the difference in this otherwise lagging indicator. So much for the buying panic last Friday.
I researched it more and the MasterCard Spending Pulse report on US retail gasoline sales confirmed the "unexpected" drop (over 5% YoY).
Here is some more info:
"DOE's implied demand for gasoline "is extremely low," said Jakob. Some of that demand loss may stem from the November revision, "but it cannot be the whole explanation," Jakob said. The latest MasterCard Spending Pulse report on US retail gasoline sales also indicated gasoline sales at the pump are severely lower than a year ago. "If those implied numbers are anywhere close to reality, then the demand destruction of 2008 was nothing compared to the demand destruction of 2011-12," said Jackson.
"In 2011, to offset the loss of domestic demand the US refineries have increased exports of gasoline to Latin America, making the US join Singapore as the world's largest exporter of gasoline; but if the US real gasoline consumption continues on this trend, the US Gulf Coast refineries will need to export even more gasoline and probably force more other refineries to shut down on either side of the Atlantic. The stocks of gasoline remain very comfortable and the days-of-cover in gasoline are at the highest level since 1995," he said."
Makes sense, the spikes in oil prices are filtering down to the consumers and consumers are cutting back. Will they cut at shopping? This is the big question. Chinese shoppers did disappoint in their new year shopping.
The drop is well beyond any seasonal or climate variation. We reached the levels last seen in early 2001. Back then USA had quite lower population count, over 30,000,000 lower.
and it covers only up to November 2011. Thus, the zerohedge chart is current and up to date. In the meantime, we know the shipping activity DID drop in January 2012 as evidenced by DBI, Harpex Index and shipping activity:
The use of gas in US is dropping like a rock in 2012 with nothing like it in the history. There is something very wrong here. People stopped driving to work or shopping malls? Wait, didn't we just have historically high new hires?
Vadym, the last vertical line on the chart is April 2011, the chart goes some more, I guess till the later part of 2011. I will try to find some more data later.
The way Chinese stocks are doing poorly lately, I'm actually thinking global production and trade peaked in 2011 and going slowly down since. As everyone knows, Europe is in recession. Most people assume US, China and global economy will decouple. This is exactly what people thought in 2008 that global economy would decouple from US and it didn't.
I think what is happening, baby boomers are starting to retire now, and that is going to mess up the statistics painting a more rosy picture than it is.
T2112 (% stocks 2 channels above 40 DMA) recently hit the 6th highest reading since 2002. The data as a current as yesterday and it DOESN'T include the spike today that is likely going to be record braking. The previous 5 highest were good short term short entries, except for one that preceded a couple of flat weeks.
Look Vad,
don't try to convince me that the trading volume in Dec 2011-Jan 2012 is high by any standards as it simply is not. The original premise was that the trading was as low as 1999 and the NYSE charts confirmed that. I appreciate your comment that NYSE is not everything and I acknowledge that.
But, it looks like now you want to argue for the sake of arguing and I have no time for that. This is my last post on this.
BTW, Attached is monthly QQQ chart that shows lowest monthly volume since 2000.
Sure enough some securities don't show this effect and have peaking volume now (like JNK and HYG).
Good job! In retrospect, bears activity spiked in the last couple of days (I didn't expect that given the huge gap). Now we are seeing those few bears killed.
I admit Ben clearly delivers on his printing promise no matter what.
You are right. I checked NASDAQ and its Jan 2012 nominal volume is low, but not a record low. It's 2nd lowest since 9/2007. The lowest is Dec 2011. So, the recent volumes are very low compared to moving average. The big question is if they will bounce back and why.
Vadym, I'm talking about monthly volume. I confirmed it. I looked at monthly volume on NYSE on freestockcharts (attached).
Thanks, Bill, but I can't easily digest that data.
I'm doing some searches on "trading volume lightest since 1999" and I'm getting hits from various blogs dated 2000-2001 and April 2011. This makes me concerned some.
Edit: according to this: http://www.nyxdata.com/nysedata/asp/factbook/viewe...
January 2012 was the lowest monthly volume since 2004. But shorting at <$900 billions gave only 50/50 chances. Digging more.
"the volume over the past few months has continued to get lighter and lighter. Not only does this mean the institutions are no longer buying but it also is the lightest volume since 1999. This was just prior to the technology bubble collapsing"
Can someone validate this claim?
good reading as usually and boils down to this:
"a reasonable interpretation of the January employment report is that fewer jobs were lost in January than the BLS estimated that the economy should have lost on the basis of seasonal patterns. The economy is essentially bouncing around the flatline"
He noticed that weather alone could explain the difference in this otherwise lagging indicator. So much for the buying panic last Friday.
http://www.hussman.net/wmc/wmc120206.htm
Will the dip be bought again today? Remains to be seen.
FD: mostly in cash and very light shorts.
I researched it more and the MasterCard Spending Pulse report on US retail gasoline sales confirmed the "unexpected" drop (over 5% YoY).
Here is some more info:
"DOE's implied demand for gasoline "is extremely low," said Jakob. Some of that demand loss may stem from the November revision, "but it cannot be the whole explanation," Jakob said. The latest MasterCard Spending Pulse report on US retail gasoline sales also indicated gasoline sales at the pump are severely lower than a year ago. "If those implied numbers are anywhere close to reality, then the demand destruction of 2008 was nothing compared to the demand destruction of 2011-12," said Jackson.
"In 2011, to offset the loss of domestic demand the US refineries have increased exports of gasoline to Latin America, making the US join Singapore as the world's largest exporter of gasoline; but if the US real gasoline consumption continues on this trend, the US Gulf Coast refineries will need to export even more gasoline and probably force more other refineries to shut down on either side of the Atlantic. The stocks of gasoline remain very comfortable and the days-of-cover in gasoline are at the highest level since 1995," he said."
from: http://www.ordons.com/reports-a-analisis/reports/3...
Makes sense, the spikes in oil prices are filtering down to the consumers and consumers are cutting back. Will they cut at shopping? This is the big question. Chinese shoppers did disappoint in their new year shopping.
enjoy:
http://marcfaberblog.blogspot.com/2012/02/bloomber...
the T2112 chart updated for the Friday spike shows 3rd highest reading ever. Short term wise, markets revert to mean after such extraordinary spikes.
The drop is well beyond any seasonal or climate variation. We reached the levels last seen in early 2001. Back then USA had quite lower population count, over 30,000,000 lower.
the US employment barely grows with the population growth since 2009:
http://econintersect.com/wordpress/wp-content/uplo...
actually, the trend is down.
Also, the revised BLS numbers are almost always worse that the preliminary:
http://econintersect.com/wordpress/wp-content/uplo...
reilfax data is here: http://railfax.transmatch.com/#TotCharts
I suspect rail data looks too good as rail steals volume from truckers due to high fuel cost.
Sure enough, trucking is down YoY in Dec 2011: http://www.ceridianindex.com/
The most up to date info on global trade is here:
http://www.cpb.nl/sites/default/files/cijfer/CPB%2...
and it covers only up to November 2011. Thus, the zerohedge chart is current and up to date. In the meantime, we know the shipping activity DID drop in January 2012 as evidenced by DBI, Harpex Index and shipping activity:
http://static.importgenius.com/tradebase/worldchar...
http://static.importgenius.com/tradebase/worldchar...
The use of gas in US is dropping like a rock in 2012 with nothing like it in the history. There is something very wrong here. People stopped driving to work or shopping malls? Wait, didn't we just have historically high new hires?
File it in the "stock market vs reality" folder.
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?...
Vad, one more thing, it is not just dry-bulk shipping that nosedived. Check the container shipping Harpex index: http://www.harperpetersen.com/harpex/harpexRH.do?t...
Something just don't compute and we will know soon who is right: shippers or stock markets.
Vadym, the last vertical line on the chart is April 2011, the chart goes some more, I guess till the later part of 2011. I will try to find some more data later.
The way Chinese stocks are doing poorly lately, I'm actually thinking global production and trade peaked in 2011 and going slowly down since. As everyone knows, Europe is in recession. Most people assume US, China and global economy will decouple. This is exactly what people thought in 2008 that global economy would decouple from US and it didn't.
Look at the global trade volume, self explanatory: http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/image...
That would explain the BDI dropping like a rock!
It's ironic how equities just make a fresh new high based on unemployment lies.
I think what is happening, baby boomers are starting to retire now, and that is going to mess up the statistics painting a more rosy picture than it is.
T2112 (% stocks 2 channels above 40 DMA) recently hit the 6th highest reading since 2002. The data as a current as yesterday and it DOESN'T include the spike today that is likely going to be record braking. The previous 5 highest were good short term short entries, except for one that preceded a couple of flat weeks.
It can be easily seen on http://www.freestockcharts.com/