Maybe we can argue from "War as a Choice" or "War as Retribution"
Maybe it's naive, but it seems that most of the recent US wars have been Wars of Choice, excepting Gulf War I.
We have political leaders who (mostly) act out of concern for maintaining or assuming power. Maintaining permanent war in Afghanistan is argued as "keeping America safe", and the absence of a major terrorist event gets 'sold' as the 'cause and effect' of Afghan War. Just saying.
If the US abandoned the Afghan quagmire and its maximally corrupt government, AND a terrorist event followed, the loyal opposition would simply say, "see, we told you so. Only we can keep America safe." That isn't policy, it's politics, and politics rules policy.
How does the US create 250K new jobs a month (play catchup) in a world where our economic competitors are the low cost producers? Would a 'peace dividend' away from the military-industrial complex increase or decrease jobs?
I have a patient who made dentures. He lost his work because dentists simply sent the impressions overseas and pocketed the difference in price. His two word answer: that bites.
What's the social mood?
- Tea Party
- New music
- "I have a scheme" rally
- Chevy Volt to come out at > 40K (snickers)
- protectionism
- riots in 'austerity' countries
If we accept the fact that money (as a convenience) isn't going away, which 'money' is going to be left standing after the Central Bankers ("you can't say we didn't do enough") finish?
- Precious metals
- Oil and gasoline
- Other commodities (agricultural)
- Euro (haha)
- USD
- Yen (shouldn't the PE ratio be infinity if the rate is always zero)
- Yuan
- something else
ZeroHedge raised a great question last night about what 'hyperinflation' might look like and it wasn't necessarily 'asset inflation' desired by the Bullard/Bernanke axis.
I'll argue that understanding whose 'money' holds value might be more important than any other decision. The answer? Damned if I know.
The market continues to price in the helicopter assault/money drop. Why not? Is there not irony that Boris Badanov (Rocky and Bullwinkle) and Ben Bernanke have the same initials?
* No banker will go hungry. (We can do that).
* Goldman Sachs will NOT breach 140 (Maybe we can do that).
* Prices will not go up (Even if we have to rejigger the numbers, we do that.)
* Central bankers will remain more popular than Congressmen (Set the bar low).
* Gold prices will stay under 1250 or so (Heck, we can guarantee that in a manipulated market).
*sense of humor is the last item in the portfolio to go.
As much as the 'gloom and doom' factor has risen, 56 percent of SPX stocks are oversold by 14 day stochastics. Doesn't mean that it can't retest the recent lows (or worse), but just makes it that much tougher.
Wasn't it Jefferson Airplane who sang, "one pill makes you larger and one makes you small." I'm thinking that the American consumer has gotten small...when even some of the retail discounters see slowing traffic.
1. Impact of current situation on 'average' citizen
2. Hubris of policy makers
3. Lack of trust in data (constantly revised, manipulated, hedonics)
4. "FREE MARKETS" not an oxymoron, more an anachronism...
So we wait for the next intervention/manipulation out of the blue, control risk, and marvel at how the sheep get sheared again.
Chip off the old block head? Son Conor debuts as a contributor at Todd Harrison's Minyanville site with graphic analysis of the Global Liquidity Trade.
The people who are making the sacrifices are our servicemen and women in some far-off terrible places and everyday folk who are working 2 or 3 jobs just trying to make ends meet.
The argument about tax cuts for the richest is a smokescreen in my opinion. If you want austerity, you have to pay for it ;)
Just an FYI...maybe it's different in other states...
Background:
I'm board certified in three specialties (medicine, respiratory, critical care) and am director of the ICU, respiratory section, and was president of the medical staff at one point (a two year term)
I take three weeks of vacation (at most) a year, am now working every third weekend (61 consecutive hours) and usually one night on call a week. I probably average at least 70 hours a week working overall and am in the hospital usually at 7 or 7:15 each day.
During the last five years I've AVERAGED less than 200,000 a year income...and the trend has been steadily down. Police officers in Massachusetts can make more money than physicians by doing 'duties' near construction, etc...which is fine...just saying.
I don't own a suit and have a polo shirt on and some pants I bought at BJ's Wholesale. I drive that luxury vehicle (Honda Fit, 16K new), don't have any second home or whatever) and coach youth basketball 3-5 days a week...and I do the cable TV play-by-play for the local HS volleyball team and color analysis for the basketball team cable games.
I've put four kids through college (Harvey Mudd, BU, and two at Dartmouth) during the past 11 years without any financial aid...that total cost about 600,000 over the past decade.
Am I fairly compensated? I don't really know, but to paint all doctors (or any other profession) with the same brush...fair, maybe not so much. I haven't seen any docs sleeping on grates, but at least in Massachusetts, you don't get rich being a doctor.
Maybe we can argue from "War as a Choice" or "War as Retribution"
Maybe it's naive, but it seems that most of the recent US wars have been Wars of Choice, excepting Gulf War I.
We have political leaders who (mostly) act out of concern for maintaining or assuming power. Maintaining permanent war in Afghanistan is argued as "keeping America safe", and the absence of a major terrorist event gets 'sold' as the 'cause and effect' of Afghan War. Just saying.
If the US abandoned the Afghan quagmire and its maximally corrupt government, AND a terrorist event followed, the loyal opposition would simply say, "see, we told you so. Only we can keep America safe." That isn't policy, it's politics, and politics rules policy.
How does the US create 250K new jobs a month (play catchup) in a world where our economic competitors are the low cost producers? Would a 'peace dividend' away from the military-industrial complex increase or decrease jobs?
I have a patient who made dentures. He lost his work because dentists simply sent the impressions overseas and pocketed the difference in price. His two word answer: that bites.
http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2010/09/sunday-morning-...
Fun and games with charts, ratios, and the Bollinger Bands.
http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2010/09/saturday-mornin...
The VIX behaving badly?
http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2010/08/sunday-morning-...
What's the social mood?
- Tea Party
- New music
- "I have a scheme" rally
- Chevy Volt to come out at > 40K (snickers)
- protectionism
- riots in 'austerity' countries
Does 'anger' drive good decisions?
http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/2009/09/s...
http://www.ponderthis.net/category/social-mood/
http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2010/08/saturday-mornin...
Particularly important is the Bullard manifesto. This drives the train.
If we accept the fact that money (as a convenience) isn't going away, which 'money' is going to be left standing after the Central Bankers ("you can't say we didn't do enough") finish?
- Precious metals
- Oil and gasoline
- Other commodities (agricultural)
- Euro (haha)
- USD
- Yen (shouldn't the PE ratio be infinity if the rate is always zero)
- Yuan
- something else
ZeroHedge raised a great question last night about what 'hyperinflation' might look like and it wasn't necessarily 'asset inflation' desired by the Bullard/Bernanke axis.
I'll argue that understanding whose 'money' holds value might be more important than any other decision. The answer? Damned if I know.
The market continues to price in the helicopter assault/money drop. Why not? Is there not irony that Boris Badanov (Rocky and Bullwinkle) and Ben Bernanke have the same initials?
Policy goals: We can do it. Add your own.
http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2010/08/spy-versus-spy....
* No banker will go hungry. (We can do that).
* Goldman Sachs will NOT breach 140 (Maybe we can do that).
* Prices will not go up (Even if we have to rejigger the numbers, we do that.)
* Central bankers will remain more popular than Congressmen (Set the bar low).
* Gold prices will stay under 1250 or so (Heck, we can guarantee that in a manipulated market).
*sense of humor is the last item in the portfolio to go.
As much as the 'gloom and doom' factor has risen, 56 percent of SPX stocks are oversold by 14 day stochastics. Doesn't mean that it can't retest the recent lows (or worse), but just makes it that much tougher.
Rosenberg has been pretty much 'en fuego' lately. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/rosenbergs-advice...
Wasn't it Jefferson Airplane who sang, "one pill makes you larger and one makes you small." I'm thinking that the American consumer has gotten small...when even some of the retail discounters see slowing traffic.
The quintessential sui generis promoter of whatever is good for Bill Gross. Yesterday, today, and tomorrow.
http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/article...
Day old, but still flavorful.
1. Impact of current situation on 'average' citizen
2. Hubris of policy makers
3. Lack of trust in data (constantly revised, manipulated, hedonics)
4. "FREE MARKETS" not an oxymoron, more an anachronism...
So we wait for the next intervention/manipulation out of the blue, control risk, and marvel at how the sheep get sheared again.
http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2010/08/recognizing-bub...
Followup from my son as to what he sees.
http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/article...
Chip off the old block head? Son Conor debuts as a contributor at Todd Harrison's Minyanville site with graphic analysis of the Global Liquidity Trade.
http://tinyurl.com/2bwku9z
Excellent point by Bill. Yesterday, despite the overall market lethargy if not so much weakness, the yen fell, almost certainly on intervention.
http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2010/08/canaries-in-coa...
Chart elegance. LOL.
1) Orderly selling. Do permabulls feel better?
2) "Bull markets won't let you in, bear markets won't let you out." - Richard Russell
3) Even Chuck Norris is afraid to buy this market.
The people who are making the sacrifices are our servicemen and women in some far-off terrible places and everyday folk who are working 2 or 3 jobs just trying to make ends meet.
The argument about tax cuts for the richest is a smokescreen in my opinion. If you want austerity, you have to pay for it ;)
Physician pay...
Just an FYI...maybe it's different in other states...
Background:
I'm board certified in three specialties (medicine, respiratory, critical care) and am director of the ICU, respiratory section, and was president of the medical staff at one point (a two year term)
I take three weeks of vacation (at most) a year, am now working every third weekend (61 consecutive hours) and usually one night on call a week. I probably average at least 70 hours a week working overall and am in the hospital usually at 7 or 7:15 each day.
During the last five years I've AVERAGED less than 200,000 a year income...and the trend has been steadily down. Police officers in Massachusetts can make more money than physicians by doing 'duties' near construction, etc...which is fine...just saying.
I don't own a suit and have a polo shirt on and some pants I bought at BJ's Wholesale. I drive that luxury vehicle (Honda Fit, 16K new), don't have any second home or whatever) and coach youth basketball 3-5 days a week...and I do the cable TV play-by-play for the local HS volleyball team and color analysis for the basketball team cable games.
I've put four kids through college (Harvey Mudd, BU, and two at Dartmouth) during the past 11 years without any financial aid...that total cost about 600,000 over the past decade.
Am I fairly compensated? I don't really know, but to paint all doctors (or any other profession) with the same brush...fair, maybe not so much. I haven't seen any docs sleeping on grates, but at least in Massachusetts, you don't get rich being a doctor.