Just throwing it out there, and in response to a question yesterday, yes I have been enjoying the swings on this stock, which is ruining my confidence because I'm starting to feel invincible trading this.
UXG has been releasing a lot of news lately, all good of course, but the frequency has definitely increased.
Nov 2
Oct 28
Oct 25
Oct 21
As we've noticed, the share price has taken a really bad dive in the past 3 months ~6.45 to a low of say 3.53 give or take in Toronto, and now a nice recovery up to ~4.90 (sold 10 cents early).
Maybe someone else can comment, I know production is geared for 2nd half of 2012, is this the pattern as companies near production, increased news releases. It just makes me nervous because the stock pops at each release, which is a good selling opportunity for big players trying to unwind (I believe it is mostly institutional holders).
I'm just starting to get a little nervous because the last 3 months of watching this stock/trading it, all the gains could be wiped out quicker now as I've increased the amount of shares I'm trading per trade. Anyone have anything to say on this, maybe you could say psychological, aspect of trading, particularly these volatile miners. I was destroyed a few years ago on CNU, ECU, Molycor, SAG, etc...which I accept full responsibility, and I do feel Rob Mcewen has what it takes to turn US Gold into one of the greats, but it is getting nerve-racking.
To me, the action in UXG yesterday was quite out of the ordinary. I have not seen bids with as much volume as I did yesterday in a long time, well at least since I've been watching and trading the stock very closely for a couple months. Notably, 16500 bid at 4.39 supporting the price before the drop to 4.23 a bit later on and then holding at the 4.37 line.
Don't quote me on this, but for those who trade this stock, it appears the new starting point is closer to 4.25/4.30 (support) than 4.00 as it was for a while, indicating about a 6-7% lift in the support price (bullish).
I do like that although no specifics were provided, they did address the Argentina FX issue in the latest release. A little unnerving though, the comments related to Vale's FX bath. Still trying to wrap my head around how moves in the peso will affect the profits, looks like some currency hedging back home will be in order, I'd love to see how the hedging would be transacted for situations like these.
With my limited knowledge of capital markets, and during an exquisite plate of spaghetti bolognese (with vodka sauce)...A train of thought ensued.
To postulate.
I remember a day or two back someone posted the heavy institutional ownership of UXG. Heavy downward pressure ought to be a result of a large position selling into the market. I understand Mr. McEwen has ownership as well (somewhere in the range of 20%? --> please correct me if I'm wrong. Please heed the title. Now, with gold the price it is today ($1500 thereabouts?), UXG is trading back at levels not seem for a while now, looking strictly at the gold price to stock ratio, and given the fact we as owners are now closer to production in Mexico last I checked...
Another question, given that a few of our shareholders own a large chunk, how does the stock price rise? Do the large owners just withhold the Ask at some point and let the nibblers drive up the price, or does another big hand come in and hit the offering price of multiple scared or played out hands.
Just curious how this old stock market thing works.
from Canada's Financial Post today, this comment is a little unnerving regarding Sino Forest:
"The Canadian-listed group, which has denied all wrongdoing, is the biggest of a number of Chinese companies listed on foreign stock exchanges to have been accused of misleading investors in recent months"
specifically the "which has denied all wrongdoing" part.
nervous on SVM, this scare tactic, if that's what it is, was perfectly timed. Odd though the massive short building.
It would be great for someone to comment on the treatment of SinoForest and what that could mean for Silvercorp. I don't know enough about the sinoforest issue, other than the articles I've read.
from Canada's Financial Post today, this comment is a little unnerving regarding Sino Forest:
"The Canadian-listed group, which has denied all wrongdoing, is the biggest of a number of Chinese companies listed on foreign stock exchanges to have been accused of misleading investors in recent months"
specifically the "which has denied all wrongdoing" part.
nervous on SVM, this scare tactic, if that's what it is, was perfectly timed. Odd though the massive short building.
It would be great for someone to comment on the treatment of SinoForest and what that could mean for Silvercorp. I don't know enough about the sinoforest issue, other than the articles I've read.
some conflicting indicators on my basic analysis here. keep in mind I am using a few tools that I don't entirely understand, but have proven helpful in timing decisions.
I think we're heading down to test the 6 month low of $5.28 ish, based on the testing and breaking down of ...
breakdown of june 2 50 day moving avg (6.70) (which also happened to be the 62% fib line, we came down quickly to test nove 2, 2010's ceiling of 5.23. On the 18th July 2011 we tested again this 6.78 region on pretty good momentum from a high volume move starting on the 11th of july, hitting resistance, failing to break again that 62% fib region of 6.78 which so happened to be the 200 SMA.
It looks a bit troublesome that the orange line (forgive me) has breached the purple today on the fast stochastics, as well as the macd. 14 period RSI sitting around 43.33, heading down...
I'm looking to establish my first position at 5.25 range (tomorrow?), where I think we will see a bounce. Based on the effort it took to break this resistance back in aug, sept, oct, nov '10, I think it's safe to scale in here for cheap.
Putting my faith in Mr. Mcewen & co. on this one, justifying my entry by the charts.
Again, for what it's worth.
Cheers everyone!
Credits to my friend Omar for sharing with me this system which is quite fun (on the way up anyways!).
Hope you are enjoying your day, either a)by a pool with a margarita or b)in an air-conditioned building! I broke a sweat before even making it across the street today at lunch!
Hope you are enjoying your day, either a)by a pool with a margarita or b)in an air-conditioned building! I broke a sweat before even making it across the street today at lunch!
slow stochastics (14,3) on the daily chart look about ready to cross over, signalling what looks like some strength here, but the weekly has been flat for some time. a risky trade, but support looks to be building.. Anyone notice how fast we bounced off 28.50 yesterday. i blinked and didn't have time, although it felt as if we'd touch it again, not happening. 29 range looks good to me, too hard to tell if we'll see that today . was running spreadsheets yesterday while considering my next entry here (long right now), and saw that near the bottom (speculation), if you're down, the entry price , within reason is not so important, and cuts the spread btwn purchase price and avg. cost.
limit order at 29.50, as the difference btwn a buy at 28.50 (original limit after it hit yesterday) and the new one will result in a 1.6% difference in avg. cost. this of course only applies if you are long, at least mid-term and are absolutely convinced of a higher price in the future. it is scary though with uso, as the contracts are rolled over, so the contango doesn't necessarily benefit those of us holding if i understand correctly. that's actually a dirty trick now that i think about it.
FD: long USO.
Looking at the chart of USO, FYI I am a noob at chart reading. (It's what the kids call gamers who won't last more than a minute in a FPS {first person shooter). using the standard timelines for both stochastics and RSI (disclaimer: I don't fully understand either), but it looks like the full stochastic is crossing below 20 right now, continuing a pretty clear pattern, as in will drop another few % before a nice gain. RSI (7) at 28.78 also indicates we are close (ie, 5 days or even NOW) to at least a short term bottom.
NYU, about selling and buying lower, its so hard to gauge these fast almost erratic markets, I should have sold out of my USO position i bought at 32.50 when it was at 30, to buy at 28 (my limit order for tomorrow, although for some reason I think we could see 27.75 or lower -->can't watch the market all day, am happy in at 28 if that's not the case), but since i believe very strongly that this will trade above the 32.50 in a moderate time frame, i sat on it, and now can only lower my cost base to say...30.50 at best.
such is life.
i was toying with the gains vs. loss theories a while back and have a pretty cool spreadsheet made up if you're interested. It made me stay away from the 2x leverage etf's, that's for sure.
ditto, great link fireworks, this is important information to note. Over the wknd, I was looking into xeg.to (i'm in Canada, so this one makes sense vs. xle I believe, as they are highly correlated [to the naked eye] [i didn't calculate the correlation coefficient, although perhaps somebody knows a website that will do this?]}
I think the dollar is bound to fall 'eventually' and right now i'm paying a 25% premium to trade USO or XLE, so if i gain 20% on USO and cdn $$ rises equivalently against the USD, and i want to cash out my chips, i'll only get my initial investment (very basic stuff I know)
anyways, looking to enter xeg.to at 12.00 if I can, which is around the december lows.
Re: Barclays.
I understand that they are the (managers?) (custodians?) of the ishares family of etf's which includes most of the ones that Bill reports on, including xle.
Does anyone know off hand the risk in terms of default of these etf's if the bad news continues out of Barclay's, are they a separate division... From what I understand, volume plays a key factor in the safety of the etf (not from downside, but from default).
Anyways, Happy Obama Day from the great white north. (Toronto).
NYU, be sure to share any interesting articles you come across.
I have spent countless , literally countless hours reading about oil, the industry reports, books, etc. i also feel strongly that it is going higher long term, and to be honest it's the only thing i can hold with conviction. I got scared out of my GE holding for a 10% haircut (it's ok, only 100 shrs), I shouldn't have been there in the first place, I know nothing about GE, nothing. A little discipline could have reduced the loss to 7% which should have been my stop. Arggh. I remember holding CNU.V from .7, buying all the way down, and selling my last lot at .005. No way will I do that again.
I'm basically too nervous to hold anything other than oil, cash, and some UNG, basically energy is my theme. I find I still don't have the discipline to trade with the rules necessary to succeed. It is literally a crapshoot, even though I tried using indicators like RSI, I am learning my risk tolerance is not as high as I thought. That and my capital base isn't large enough to sustain big losses.
Anyways, oil is very fascinating, and aside from technicals, I feel it is a safe place to put your money at or near these prices. as safe as anything else I guess.
"The G-20 monetary authorities really did learn a lot of lessons in 2008; I don’t think they will permit a re-run."
I can't help but think that this statement has a very subtly placed pun in it...
Just throwing it out there, and in response to a question yesterday, yes I have been enjoying the swings on this stock, which is ruining my confidence because I'm starting to feel invincible trading this.
UXG has been releasing a lot of news lately, all good of course, but the frequency has definitely increased.
Nov 2
Oct 28
Oct 25
Oct 21
As we've noticed, the share price has taken a really bad dive in the past 3 months ~6.45 to a low of say 3.53 give or take in Toronto, and now a nice recovery up to ~4.90 (sold 10 cents early).
Maybe someone else can comment, I know production is geared for 2nd half of 2012, is this the pattern as companies near production, increased news releases. It just makes me nervous because the stock pops at each release, which is a good selling opportunity for big players trying to unwind (I believe it is mostly institutional holders).
I'm just starting to get a little nervous because the last 3 months of watching this stock/trading it, all the gains could be wiped out quicker now as I've increased the amount of shares I'm trading per trade. Anyone have anything to say on this, maybe you could say psychological, aspect of trading, particularly these volatile miners. I was destroyed a few years ago on CNU, ECU, Molycor, SAG, etc...which I accept full responsibility, and I do feel Rob Mcewen has what it takes to turn US Gold into one of the greats, but it is getting nerve-racking.
Cheers!
any way you could save and post the pdf bull hunter? or is that not allowed for membership content.
To me, the action in UXG yesterday was quite out of the ordinary. I have not seen bids with as much volume as I did yesterday in a long time, well at least since I've been watching and trading the stock very closely for a couple months. Notably, 16500 bid at 4.39 supporting the price before the drop to 4.23 a bit later on and then holding at the 4.37 line.
Don't quote me on this, but for those who trade this stock, it appears the new starting point is closer to 4.25/4.30 (support) than 4.00 as it was for a while, indicating about a 6-7% lift in the support price (bullish).
I do like that although no specifics were provided, they did address the Argentina FX issue in the latest release. A little unnerving though, the comments related to Vale's FX bath. Still trying to wrap my head around how moves in the peso will affect the profits, looks like some currency hedging back home will be in order, I'd love to see how the hedging would be transacted for situations like these.
anyone?
I want to let it ride, but selling these high days and buying the low days has been working out very well. +10% spread on the price on the day.
With my limited knowledge of capital markets, and during an exquisite plate of spaghetti bolognese (with vodka sauce)...A train of thought ensued.
To postulate.
I remember a day or two back someone posted the heavy institutional ownership of UXG. Heavy downward pressure ought to be a result of a large position selling into the market. I understand Mr. McEwen has ownership as well (somewhere in the range of 20%? --> please correct me if I'm wrong. Please heed the title. Now, with gold the price it is today ($1500 thereabouts?), UXG is trading back at levels not seem for a while now, looking strictly at the gold price to stock ratio, and given the fact we as owners are now closer to production in Mexico last I checked...
Another question, given that a few of our shareholders own a large chunk, how does the stock price rise? Do the large owners just withhold the Ask at some point and let the nibblers drive up the price, or does another big hand come in and hit the offering price of multiple scared or played out hands.
Just curious how this old stock market thing works.
re-opened position at 4.23. (toronto)
in at 5.46, out at 6.03 previously. based on the low chart and faith in mr. mcewen's abilities.
from Canada's Financial Post today, this comment is a little unnerving regarding Sino Forest:
"The Canadian-listed group, which has denied all wrongdoing, is the biggest of a number of Chinese companies listed on foreign stock exchanges to have been accused of misleading investors in recent months"
specifically the "which has denied all wrongdoing" part.
nervous on SVM, this scare tactic, if that's what it is, was perfectly timed. Odd though the massive short building.
It would be great for someone to comment on the treatment of SinoForest and what that could mean for Silvercorp. I don't know enough about the sinoforest issue, other than the articles I've read.
from Canada's Financial Post today, this comment is a little unnerving regarding Sino Forest:
"The Canadian-listed group, which has denied all wrongdoing, is the biggest of a number of Chinese companies listed on foreign stock exchanges to have been accused of misleading investors in recent months"
specifically the "which has denied all wrongdoing" part.
nervous on SVM, this scare tactic, if that's what it is, was perfectly timed. Odd though the massive short building.
It would be great for someone to comment on the treatment of SinoForest and what that could mean for Silvercorp. I don't know enough about the sinoforest issue, other than the articles I've read.
watching the price action in svm is eerily similar to watching download speeds. Just when you think you're getting a handle on the pattern...
watching the price action in svm is eerily similar to watching download speeds. Just when you think you're getting a handle on the pattern...
Bill, it's so great of you to share this with us.
On a side note, I would recommend AGAINST economy class on that flight!
Sounds like that will be a very interesting trip. If you are visiting the GC mine down near Guangzhou, be prepared to sweat!
Can't wait to hear about it.
Eric
for what it's worth....
some conflicting indicators on my basic analysis here. keep in mind I am using a few tools that I don't entirely understand, but have proven helpful in timing decisions.
I think we're heading down to test the 6 month low of $5.28 ish, based on the testing and breaking down of ...
breakdown of june 2 50 day moving avg (6.70) (which also happened to be the 62% fib line, we came down quickly to test nove 2, 2010's ceiling of 5.23. On the 18th July 2011 we tested again this 6.78 region on pretty good momentum from a high volume move starting on the 11th of july, hitting resistance, failing to break again that 62% fib region of 6.78 which so happened to be the 200 SMA.
It looks a bit troublesome that the orange line (forgive me) has breached the purple today on the fast stochastics, as well as the macd. 14 period RSI sitting around 43.33, heading down...
I'm looking to establish my first position at 5.25 range (tomorrow?), where I think we will see a bounce. Based on the effort it took to break this resistance back in aug, sept, oct, nov '10, I think it's safe to scale in here for cheap.
Putting my faith in Mr. Mcewen & co. on this one, justifying my entry by the charts.
Again, for what it's worth.
Cheers everyone!
Credits to my friend Omar for sharing with me this system which is quite fun (on the way up anyways!).
Eric
Hi Bill!
Hope you are enjoying your day, either a)by a pool with a margarita or b)in an air-conditioned building! I broke a sweat before even making it across the street today at lunch!
Best of health for the coming year
Hi Bill!
Hope you are enjoying your day, either a)by a pool with a margarita or b)in an air-conditioned building! I broke a sweat before even making it across the street today at lunch!
Best of health for the coming year
slow stochastics (14,3) on the daily chart look about ready to cross over, signalling what looks like some strength here, but the weekly has been flat for some time. a risky trade, but support looks to be building.. Anyone notice how fast we bounced off 28.50 yesterday. i blinked and didn't have time, although it felt as if we'd touch it again, not happening. 29 range looks good to me, too hard to tell if we'll see that today . was running spreadsheets yesterday while considering my next entry here (long right now), and saw that near the bottom (speculation), if you're down, the entry price , within reason is not so important, and cuts the spread btwn purchase price and avg. cost.
limit order at 29.50, as the difference btwn a buy at 28.50 (original limit after it hit yesterday) and the new one will result in a 1.6% difference in avg. cost. this of course only applies if you are long, at least mid-term and are absolutely convinced of a higher price in the future. it is scary though with uso, as the contracts are rolled over, so the contango doesn't necessarily benefit those of us holding if i understand correctly. that's actually a dirty trick now that i think about it.
FD: long USO.
Looking at the chart of USO, FYI I am a noob at chart reading. (It's what the kids call gamers who won't last more than a minute in a FPS {first person shooter). using the standard timelines for both stochastics and RSI (disclaimer: I don't fully understand either), but it looks like the full stochastic is crossing below 20 right now, continuing a pretty clear pattern, as in will drop another few % before a nice gain. RSI (7) at 28.78 also indicates we are close (ie, 5 days or even NOW) to at least a short term bottom.
NYU, about selling and buying lower, its so hard to gauge these fast almost erratic markets, I should have sold out of my USO position i bought at 32.50 when it was at 30, to buy at 28 (my limit order for tomorrow, although for some reason I think we could see 27.75 or lower -->can't watch the market all day, am happy in at 28 if that's not the case), but since i believe very strongly that this will trade above the 32.50 in a moderate time frame, i sat on it, and now can only lower my cost base to say...30.50 at best.
such is life.
i was toying with the gains vs. loss theories a while back and have a pretty cool spreadsheet made up if you're interested. It made me stay away from the 2x leverage etf's, that's for sure.
ditto, great link fireworks, this is important information to note. Over the wknd, I was looking into xeg.to (i'm in Canada, so this one makes sense vs. xle I believe, as they are highly correlated [to the naked eye] [i didn't calculate the correlation coefficient, although perhaps somebody knows a website that will do this?]}
I think the dollar is bound to fall 'eventually' and right now i'm paying a 25% premium to trade USO or XLE, so if i gain 20% on USO and cdn $$ rises equivalently against the USD, and i want to cash out my chips, i'll only get my initial investment (very basic stuff I know)
anyways, looking to enter xeg.to at 12.00 if I can, which is around the december lows.
Re: Barclays.
I understand that they are the (managers?) (custodians?) of the ishares family of etf's which includes most of the ones that Bill reports on, including xle.
Does anyone know off hand the risk in terms of default of these etf's if the bad news continues out of Barclay's, are they a separate division... From what I understand, volume plays a key factor in the safety of the etf (not from downside, but from default).
Anyways, Happy Obama Day from the great white north. (Toronto).
NYU, be sure to share any interesting articles you come across.
I have spent countless , literally countless hours reading about oil, the industry reports, books, etc. i also feel strongly that it is going higher long term, and to be honest it's the only thing i can hold with conviction. I got scared out of my GE holding for a 10% haircut (it's ok, only 100 shrs), I shouldn't have been there in the first place, I know nothing about GE, nothing. A little discipline could have reduced the loss to 7% which should have been my stop. Arggh. I remember holding CNU.V from .7, buying all the way down, and selling my last lot at .005. No way will I do that again.
I'm basically too nervous to hold anything other than oil, cash, and some UNG, basically energy is my theme. I find I still don't have the discipline to trade with the rules necessary to succeed. It is literally a crapshoot, even though I tried using indicators like RSI, I am learning my risk tolerance is not as high as I thought. That and my capital base isn't large enough to sustain big losses.
Anyways, oil is very fascinating, and aside from technicals, I feel it is a safe place to put your money at or near these prices. as safe as anything else I guess.