You can sell it at any time, but the spread between the bid and ask is importnat, and sometimes huge. You don't have to sell at the bid, put in an offer 60% towards the ask ans hope for the best, unless you HAVE TO GET OUT!
You can sell it at any time, but the spread between the bid and ask is importnat, and sometimes huge. You don't have to sell at the bid, put in an offer 60% towards the ask ans hope for the best, unless you HAVE TO GET OUT!
On Thursday I opined that Gold was in a channel bottom and should be watched for a breakdown.
"Check the Gold Channel. I just started looking at this tonight. It looks tasty, but won't place trades until watching for a while longer."
An important break, support at the PRS177...and then a sharp rally and sharp slap down by the main PRS 100 (or zero if you prefer) channel line. This is extremely bearish for Gold. This is one of my systems, this must be bet. Too bad I missed Thursday, but since it was first channel line I drew on Gold, I had to refrain from doing anything.
It's a beautiful Full Moon, and Euro rising on bailout!
From the land of WTF?
Ireland, after just days before, steadfastly denying it needs financial help, is forced to accept help.
Down below, please review the S&P 500, especially the Fib Fan from the Great Depression and the Big 61 Fibo, both now in play, both extremely bearish
And the Euro overall up on that news. Very odd. Perhaps what they nicely refer to as an exhaustion top/spike. Which basically means a last minute manipulation before the real direction is set.
NZD as a currency got hammered in Sunday action, against all others that I viewed.
I was snaked out of my copper short, and glad I had stop in place. Somehow I got a decent fill on a gap up. Again, with Eurozone blowing up I was surprised that USD down and copper up.
Went back in short copper at a higher price---based on the PRS kickdown shown in this blog last week.
Scanning the futures and FX, I really don't see anything "obvious".
Expiry was last Friday, and often the Monday after sees some serious moves as the market gets back to normal.
STRATEGY: set some orders to activate either long or short based upon a move. For ES (S&P 500 futures) I will accept an 8 point move beyond the entry point as profit stop. And a 1.25 point stop as a loss.
I get alot of periodicals. This one called Assembly is hilarious. Upset Zombie Workers, on the production line.
I noticed an interesting trend -- the rich get richer, the middle class and poor get chased out of their houses at low prices.
The richest home buyers were the only segment that saw year over year gains. The rich get richer. Are they smart? Locking their money into hard "assets", or just stupid because they don't see just how bad things are? Time will tell, but in reality a house is a highly illiquid investment that could easily fall 50% from here.
One of the few tech methods that stands strong is one of the oldest, Fibonacci.
The trick is where do you start and stop the 0% and 100% lines. The answer is not always obvious, and often running form top to bottom of a 5 wave or 3 wave pattern works well. On my ES chart 1040 is roughly the bottom.
Check the "total market" DWC, we are also at an important Fibo. Investor complacency is high.
And Finally, right before the elections -- "The Housing Boom is Back", see newspaper headlines. I think I am going to buy some lemmings and hang out with them, at least they deserve some respect, :-)
30 years ago, those with access to futures were able to make a good living just by trading the direction the futures predicted,
Even 2 years ago, off hours futures were fairly honest, and I was still able to bank some nice coin. Looks like they have now fallen into the HFT gaming trap.
The middle chart is GLD/SLV. You can see this is an excellent indicator, when this ratio is at a bottom, the market usually tanks, within 3 to 5 days, but sometimes immediately. The trick is figuring out when the bottom is.
This top chart is SPY/VIX I plotted it just to see if any interesting effects came up....none really
The Bottom chart is SPX, the S&P 500, follow each purple line from the GLD/SLV bottoms. Amazing methinks. The two highlighted candle patterns are similar, the first one started the Head of the infamous 2009 Head and Shoulders Bear trap. The second one is NOW.
And finally, a boatload of other charts for your free consumption.
Like this stuff? Sign up as a follower and then follow on your Google reader.
The latest bear Crushing Ramp Job is actually steeper with less pullbacks than the March 2009, climb out of the bottom. See Chart.
And this Summation index chart lifted from Breakpoint Trades shows a very strange effect starting Sept 2010....a complete wipe out of the cycle that has been so consistent.
Finally, OMG! An update from TOS on the same Weekend as an Elliot Wave Financial Forecast. What madness drives this market now?
This indicator (another Fear Factor) TNX has predicted market declines well in the near past. Will the real triangle please stand up. could be bouncing here, for an October run up. My thoughts...3% more frog boil, into the full moon.
The Fear Factor, deeply conflicted, at support for courage (aka foolhardiness)
One Trade Idea, RS. Facing strong resistance and swatted down 1.5% today. Nicely shaped IHS pattern though, Buy above 42, stop below 41, target 49, take half off the table at halfway =45 which would be a 10% gain. Above 43.5, move stop to just below 42, since a backtest is likely.
And for the big picture, a Deadly Bearish Big Picture (to quote Bob Pretcher). The charts below are from data I get from a Commitment of Traders guy who occasionally sends out emails. They help keep things in perspective, which is important since so many media outlets are acting simply as cheerleaders rather than investigating and trying to fix the root cause of our fundamental problems.
I remember in 1988, we were driving up north Wisconsin for a fishing/drinking/wrestling trip, and our car popped the radiator. We had a church guy stop as we were trying to MacGyver some type of field fix, failing several times now. Church guy did not offer any help, he just said "I don't know what kind of boys you are, but you just gotta have faith". We all guffawed and I shot out -- "Sir, we got faith, for sure we are going to get to our cabin, what we really need is a new radiator". Church guy leaves.
Another guy stops and after a quick discussion, says aw hell, you guys got another vehicle at your cabin in Crivitz, hell I'll take you there it is only 40 miles out of my way.......
Moral of the story--
The US is screwed because China ain't gonna drive us to the cabin, and faith alone ain't gonna get the job done.
Wallstreet is completely detached from mainstreet.
"They" ramp things in the opposite direction to catch as many people off guard as possible. This is clear when correlations suddenly break down, which they have.
It is amazing that "stock value" is actually computed into what is presented as cumulative "wealth".
Think about that word, Wealth. Stock prices are just an electronic blip, a fleeting data point with less mass than a thought. But now that prices are up, suddenly the lie that wealth has increased is being pimped out by the Gov/Financial/Media complex.
Just over a decade ago, I thought this way-- That the stock market price reflected the wealth and strength of our nation. This is how we are trained by the media and our financial "leaders / advisors". It is false.
So in the last 2 weeks especially, that market is being ramped in the face of every other indicator showing the opposite. How long can the insanity last? Well look at 1999, it can last a long time. Elections coming up could really be Dabama saying to his G-team....whatever, take $100B and ramp the futures and market indices....make sure people are happy by election day.
You can sell it at any time, but the spread between the bid and ask is importnat, and sometimes huge. You don't have to sell at the bid, put in an offer 60% towards the ask ans hope for the best, unless you HAVE TO GET OUT!
steveo
You can sell it at any time, but the spread between the bid and ask is importnat, and sometimes huge. You don't have to sell at the bid, put in an offer 60% towards the ask ans hope for the best, unless you HAVE TO GET OUT!
steveo
See third chart down, shows "support" for a Euro bounce up.
Fear Factor also supports a move up....
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/
On Thursday I opined that Gold was in a channel bottom and should be watched for a breakdown.
"Check the Gold Channel. I just started looking at this tonight. It looks tasty, but won't place trades until watching for a while longer."
An important break, support at the PRS177...and then a sharp rally and sharp slap down by the main PRS 100 (or zero if you prefer) channel line. This is extremely bearish for Gold. This is one of my systems, this must be bet. Too bad I missed Thursday, but since it was first channel line I drew on Gold, I had to refrain from doing anything.
Thanks Bill, we aren't losers, but a pep talk and a few simple directions help!
It's a beautiful Full Moon, and Euro rising on bailout!
From the land of WTF?
Ireland, after just days before, steadfastly denying it needs financial help, is forced to accept help.
Down below, please review the S&P 500, especially the Fib Fan from the Great Depression and the Big 61 Fibo, both now in play, both extremely bearish
And the Euro overall up on that news. Very odd. Perhaps what they nicely refer to as an exhaustion top/spike. Which basically means a last minute manipulation before the real direction is set.
NZD as a currency got hammered in Sunday action, against all others that I viewed.
I was snaked out of my copper short, and glad I had stop in place. Somehow I got a decent fill on a gap up. Again, with Eurozone blowing up I was surprised that USD down and copper up.
Went back in short copper at a higher price---based on the PRS kickdown shown in this blog last week.
Scanning the futures and FX, I really don't see anything "obvious".
Expiry was last Friday, and often the Monday after sees some serious moves as the market gets back to normal.
STRATEGY: set some orders to activate either long or short based upon a move. For ES (S&P 500 futures) I will accept an 8 point move beyond the entry point as profit stop. And a 1.25 point stop as a loss.
I get alot of periodicals. This one called Assembly is hilarious. Upset Zombie Workers, on the production line.
And here it is, the Fib Fan from Great Depression
Doctor Copper took a body blow, see here. This is about as confirmed a trend change as I ever see, with a nice backtest to add confidence.
just saying
Chart analysis of every FX pair versus the dollar on 3 time frames.
My hand notes, and rational basis for choices are in the attached pictures.
I looked at all the major forex pairs compared to the USD.
Results were startling. For all 24 Pairs
Short Term Medium Long (over 2 years)
Bullish 17 13 10
for USD
Bearish 0 7 7
Neutral, or 7 4 6
No Data
Then I looked at my off the cuff, Major trading partners, and I included CHF Swiss Franc.
Short Term Medium Long (over 2 years)
Bullish 7 7 5
for USD
Bearish 0 0 2
very well executed....the American Dream....to be enslaved with debt
Good data, puts things in perspective
Using raw data from here
http://www.realtor.org/research/research/ehsdata
I noticed an interesting trend -- the rich get richer, the middle class and poor get chased out of their houses at low prices.
The richest home buyers were the only segment that saw year over year gains. The rich get richer. Are they smart? Locking their money into hard "assets", or just stupid because they don't see just how bad things are? Time will tell, but in reality a house is a highly illiquid investment that could easily fall 50% from here.
One of the few tech methods that stands strong is one of the oldest, Fibonacci.
The trick is where do you start and stop the 0% and 100% lines. The answer is not always obvious, and often running form top to bottom of a 5 wave or 3 wave pattern works well. On my ES chart 1040 is roughly the bottom.
Check the "total market" DWC, we are also at an important Fibo. Investor complacency is high.
And Finally, right before the elections -- "The Housing Boom is Back", see newspaper headlines. I think I am going to buy some lemmings and hang out with them, at least they deserve some respect, :-)
30 years ago, those with access to futures were able to make a good living just by trading the direction the futures predicted,
Even 2 years ago, off hours futures were fairly honest, and I was still able to bank some nice coin. Looks like they have now fallen into the HFT gaming trap.
The middle chart is GLD/SLV. You can see this is an excellent indicator, when this ratio is at a bottom, the market usually tanks, within 3 to 5 days, but sometimes immediately. The trick is figuring out when the bottom is.
This top chart is SPY/VIX I plotted it just to see if any interesting effects came up....none really
The Bottom chart is SPX, the S&P 500, follow each purple line from the GLD/SLV bottoms. Amazing methinks. The two highlighted candle patterns are similar, the first one started the Head of the infamous 2009 Head and Shoulders Bear trap. The second one is NOW.
And finally, a boatload of other charts for your free consumption.
Like this stuff? Sign up as a follower and then follow on your Google reader.
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/
I chart these flow occasionally.
LOTS of money going into Bonds, rest into Foreign equities
Awesome notification!
The latest bear Crushing Ramp Job is actually steeper with less pullbacks than the March 2009, climb out of the bottom. See Chart.
And this Summation index chart lifted from Breakpoint Trades shows a very strange effect starting Sept 2010....a complete wipe out of the cycle that has been so consistent.
Finally, OMG! An update from TOS on the same Weekend as an Elliot Wave Financial Forecast. What madness drives this market now?
This indicator (another Fear Factor) TNX has predicted market declines well in the near past. Will the real triangle please stand up. could be bouncing here, for an October run up. My thoughts...3% more frog boil, into the full moon.
The Fear Factor, deeply conflicted, at support for courage (aka foolhardiness)
Looking for a change of heart in currencies. That will signal US indices down, dollar up, gold down.
One Trade Idea, RS. Facing strong resistance and swatted down 1.5% today. Nicely shaped IHS pattern though, Buy above 42, stop below 41, target 49, take half off the table at halfway =45 which would be a 10% gain. Above 43.5, move stop to just below 42, since a backtest is likely.
And for the big picture, a Deadly Bearish Big Picture (to quote Bob Pretcher). The charts below are from data I get from a Commitment of Traders guy who occasionally sends out emails. They help keep things in perspective, which is important since so many media outlets are acting simply as cheerleaders rather than investigating and trying to fix the root cause of our fundamental problems.
I remember in 1988, we were driving up north Wisconsin for a fishing/drinking/wrestling trip, and our car popped the radiator. We had a church guy stop as we were trying to MacGyver some type of field fix, failing several times now. Church guy did not offer any help, he just said "I don't know what kind of boys you are, but you just gotta have faith". We all guffawed and I shot out -- "Sir, we got faith, for sure we are going to get to our cabin, what we really need is a new radiator". Church guy leaves.
Another guy stops and after a quick discussion, says aw hell, you guys got another vehicle at your cabin in Crivitz, hell I'll take you there it is only 40 miles out of my way.......
Moral of the story--
The US is screwed because China ain't gonna drive us to the cabin, and faith alone ain't gonna get the job done.
Quick Note
Are we at the edge of a P3 event?
Who knows, but this is clear--
Wallstreet is completely detached from mainstreet.
"They" ramp things in the opposite direction to catch as many people off guard as possible. This is clear when correlations suddenly break down, which they have.
It is amazing that "stock value" is actually computed into what is presented as cumulative "wealth".
Think about that word, Wealth. Stock prices are just an electronic blip, a fleeting data point with less mass than a thought. But now that prices are up, suddenly the lie that wealth has increased is being pimped out by the Gov/Financial/Media complex.
Just over a decade ago, I thought this way-- That the stock market price reflected the wealth and strength of our nation. This is how we are trained by the media and our financial "leaders / advisors". It is false.
So in the last 2 weeks especially, that market is being ramped in the face of every other indicator showing the opposite. How long can the insanity last? Well look at 1999, it can last a long time. Elections coming up could really be Dabama saying to his G-team....whatever, take $100B and ramp the futures and market indices....make sure people are happy by election day.